Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

19 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

 

blah blah blah, nothing specific or solid, blah blah, etc etc.

Pure bullcrap of the highest order.

 

Saving energy = freezing in your homes and industry producing less so you can buy less

Diversifying energy imports away from fossil fuels = buying electricity from other countries, some of which will have dodgy human rights records. Saudi and North Africa can build a load of solar panel farms and we will ignore the transport costs for the rare earth metals, the pollution from production and transportation plus the security risk of long electricity cables through Islamic nations. Could burn oil and gas in the producing countries and import hydrogen instead. That would be clever, wouldn't it? Off balance sheet carbon.

Accelerating the green energy transition = this is one and two taken together but two points isn't a list so we had to add some meaningless words. Perhaps we'll build some more windfarms.

[DurhamBorn]

Its incredible to listen to the Polos,Labour worst of course.Everything they demand just creates more inflation,but i see nobody on the Government benches say so.Its basic stuff.Import millions of people who consume but dont produce prices will rise.Hand out more and more bennies prices will rise.I think without the two we would of had deflation of around 10% between 09 to 21

[Don Coglione]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Its incredible to listen to the Polos,Labour worst of course.Everything thet demand just creates more inflation,but i see nobody on the Government benches say so.Its basic stuff.Import millions of people who consume but dont produce prices will rise.Hand out more and more bennies prices will rise.I think without the two we would of had deflation of around 10% between 09 to 21

QED.

[Loki]

56 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Is there any room for considering that the initial start/rotation to commodity plays is:

a) only just started rather than at the end of the 'easy money' bit and/or

b) on a hiatus given immediate conditions?

 

Also, if we get a bust, could the first part of the new cycle 'play out again' if you see what I mean? 

Really good question, I've had similar thoughts bouncing around my head 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Increased fuel prices and shipping really starting to hit the big players

 

I wound up my import business right at the top of the cycle and the working capital went mostly into the goldies a few years ago,lovely bit of work.Another big thread theme arriving now.Importing bulky items on containers will die a death.Within 7 miles of me now we have a company making TVs and one making washing machines.They will do very well.Like the woman who worked for me in China doing the contracts etc and handling things used to say "only idiot ship fresh air" .Only small items where you can get tens of thousands on a container or flat pack etc will likely survive importing.Those garden storage boxes were nearly 90% from China,now we are making them here in the UK.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

As I imagine your close to be a bit like Don Corleone's mall those cops did well for themselves. Of course the Godfather didn't have an open cast mine at the bottom of his garden.

In my younger days my house was visited a lot by molls and gangsters,ie my childhood friends.I did think the coppers in the close would know they were faces and likely my name would be on their files as a known associate of one in particular

.One of the coppers ran over his lawn mower cable he was that busy eyeing the two lasses me and my mate were seeing as they got out of the car,they were top lookers in tiny skirts,from Glasgow.I de-flowered her in The Lovers Leap Hotel in Gretna Green the week before ,and after that she needed more 

[Option5]

Will the Russians ofload their energy exports on the cheap to the likes of China and India?

If so will these countries use the lower energy price that they pay to manufacture goods at lower prices and undercut our manufacturing companies?

Assuming they do would an import tax on goods from these countries help our industry.

Answers on a postcard etc.

[snaga]

Sunak warns of a tough few months .... so what's going to happen in a few months? a very tough few more months? then a few years? The tough times are here until wages catch up, which may be never. I really think we're being led by people that don't understand inflation. For years they misrepresented falling inflation as falling prices, rather than a reduction in rate of increase. Now they are doing the reverse?

Rishi Sunak warns of tough few months as inflation soars - BBC News

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

 

blah blah blah, nothing specific or solid, blah blah, etc etc.

Pure bullcrap of the highest order.

 

Sounds like an organisation we should be joining.

[HousePriceMania]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.I de-flowered her in The Lovers Leap Hotel in Gretna Green the week before ,and after that she needed more 

Technically, under Scottish Law, that means you are officially married to her !!!!

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Frustrating isn't it. I often wonder if there is a big conspiracy/agenda to cover up this fact or whether journalists, and majority of people, just could not understand a simple thing like a chart of money supply going exponential, even if you shoved it in their face. I suppose TPTB need to maintain the illusion that everything is normal/under control or the currency would die very quickly. (And perhaps we should just be grateful of that and buy gold etc. while still cheap?).

BBC article, like every other idiot I talk to assures us that inflation is 'due to the Ukraine war'... and is merely a 'global ptoblem' anyway. It's like listening to the school child claiming that the dog ate their homework!

[Axeman123]

31 minutes ago, snaga said:

Sunak warns of a tough few months .... so what's going to happen in a few months? a very tough few more months? then a few years?...

Just like two weeks to flatten the curve IMO. This is just getting people used to tough times, by pretending it will be short-lived.

[feed]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Just like two weeks to flatten the curve IMO. This is just getting people used to tough times, by pretending it will be short-lived.

Exactly.

It's the other side of the financial repression, the narrative.  

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

47 minutes ago, snaga said:

The tough times are here until wages catch up, which may be never. I really think we're being led by people that don't understand inflation.

They know exactly what inflation is but are just the current useful puppets to destroy the West and ordinary people's lives as per the WEF plans.

[Noallegiance]

Sky Sports just now.

Sell your gold and jewelry advert.

[DurhamBorn]

46 minutes ago, snaga said:

Sunak warns of a tough few months .... so what's going to happen in a few months? a very tough few more months? then a few years? The tough times are here until wages catch up, which may be never. I really think we're being led by people that don't understand inflation. For years they misrepresented falling inflation as falling prices, rather than a reduction in rate of increase. Now they are doing the reverse?

Rishi Sunak warns of tough few months as inflation soars - BBC News

Three options.First,they are idiots.Second,its planned so that we all consume less to protect the planet so the rich can enjoy it while we all sit at home watching the new Sabrina Teenage Witch on Netflix (ok thats just me),or the only way to deal with the government going bankrupt and to onshore jobs was to lift everything 30% quickly.My roadmap said thats exactly what they needed to do,and they have.So,i think its three,with a bit of the first two thrown in.

We cant consume the same amounts with over half the country sponging of the other half by producing little (public sector) or nothing (bennies).Government have a choice,cut the public sector and bennies,or continue down to hyper-inflation.We arent near that yet,but iv lots of indicators flashing (over 50s giving up work as sick of the crap,young refuse to work ever etc).

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Sky Sports just now.

Sell your gold and jewelry advert.

I am hopeful for another leg up in the yellow stuff.

[geordie_lurch]

Btw this might be of interest to the ebike crowd and others looking to add to their prepping - this has £40 off until tomorrow night making it £169.99 and seems to get good reviews: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B096X5791N

CTECHi Portable Power Station 240Wh, 200W LiFePO4 Battery, Pure Sine Wave AC/DC/USB/PD Outlet, Fully Charged within 2.5 Hours, Solar Generator for Outdoor Camping Travel Party

NOTE: You can connect it directly to any solar panel you have (or are looking to get) via the included MC4 solar charging cable as it's got a MPPT controller built in. It's also got the newer LiFEPO4 battery in it which should mean it lasts for around 2000 charge cycles

However if you happen to go to a workplace (or a relative you don't like) why not charge it via their mains electricity and power all your devices back at home for free DOSBODs style to reduce your energy bills via the built in 200w inverter and USB ports

[M S E Refugee]

EU unveils rationing plan https://www.rt.com/news/555691-eu-green-energy-russia/

Mandatory Solar Panels for EU residents by 2029.

Luckily you don't need commodities from Russia to produce them.

[feed]

My take on it is.  Broadly. 

7% inflation / 5% house price increase / 5% wages (before taxes) / 3% benefits 

Inflation from declining EROI and devaluation via printing.   Increase money supply, but tightly control the flow of credit.  

House prices: 

1.    Shit holes where no one wants to live, declines as credit for them evaporates
2.    Nice middle class places, with wealthy pensioners, increase nominally, but eaten away via inflation (much easier for the state to have its hand in their pocket, if they can point to price increases)
3.    Chronically undeveloped/undervalued to see some investment and growth. 

Use wages to do the heavy lifting away from benefits but use fiscal drag to ensure workers don’t get too wealthy.   

It’s a hell of a plan if the can get away with it.  
 

[geordie_lurch]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

EU unveils rationing plan https://www.rt.com/news/555691-eu-green-energy-russia/

Mandatory Solar Panels for EU residents by 2029.

Luckily you don't need commodities from Russia to produce them.

Some text from the article - highlights mine and I bet this won't apply to the Glorious Leaders like all their private plane trips

"However, some of the immediate costs will be borne by consumers. According to the European Commission’s website, households and industry will be required to make “behavioral changes” – such as turning down air conditioning and switching off lights – to reduce demand for oil and gas by 5%. Furthermore, commercial and public buildings will be required to install rooftop solar panels by 2025, with these panels to be made mandatory on residential buildings by 2029.

Some individual member states have already asked their citizens to curtail their energy use. Germany, which depends on Russia for more than half of its gas and was already facing the world’s highest energy costs due to its flawed transition to wind power, has asked its population to shower less and swap their cars for bicycles in order to save costs."

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

Some text from the article - highlights mine and I bet this won't apply to the Glorious Leaders like all their private plane trips

"However, some of the immediate costs will be borne by consumers. According to the European Commission’s website, households and industry will be required to make “behavioral changes” – such as turning down air conditioning and switching off lights – to reduce demand for oil and gas by 5%. Furthermore, commercial and public buildings will be required to install rooftop solar panels by 2025, with these panels to be made mandatory on residential buildings by 2029.

Some individual member states have already asked their citizens to curtail their energy use. Germany, which depends on Russia for more than half of its gas and was already facing the world’s highest energy costs due to its flawed transition to wind power, has asked its population to shower less and swap their cars for bicycles in order to save costs."

That is entirely political all over a flea pit of a cuntry and politicians need to be made to suffer not the people they represent.

[feed]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

EU unveils rationing plan https://www.rt.com/news/555691-eu-green-energy-russia/

Mandatory Solar Panels for EU residents by 2029.

Luckily you don't need commodities from Russia to produce them.

How much silver in a solar panel? 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, feed said:

Use wages to do the heavy lifting away from benefits but use fiscal drag to ensure workers don’t get too wealthy.

That is a fantastic sumation 

[snaga]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Three options.First,they are idiots.Second,its planned so that we all consume less to protect the planet so the rich can enjoy it while we all sit at home watching the new Sabrina Teenage Witch on Netflix (ok thats just me),or the only way to deal with the government going bankrupt and to onshore jobs was to lift everything 30% quickly.My roadmap said thats exactly what they needed to do,and they have.So,i think its three,with a bit of the first two thrown in.

We cant consume the same amounts with over half the country sponging of the other half by producing little (public sector) or nothing (bennies).Government have a choice,cut the public sector and bennies,or continue down to hyper-inflation.We arent near that yet,but iv lots of indicators flashing (over 50s giving up work as sick of the crap,young refuse to work ever etc).

all that too, but it's the narrative that things will improve in a few months, it wont. even if inflation is zero in the autumn, that doesn't reverse the current inflation. The current high cost of living is long term, we're going to need to adjust our expectations or find other ways to accrue wealth.