Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[M S E Refugee]

14 minutes ago, feed said:

How much silver in a solar panel? 

I don't think there is a great deal of Silver needed but if they want to cover the EU in Solar Panels I am sure it will be hundreds and hundreds of millions of ounces.

[belfastchild]

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Furthermore, commercial and public buildings will be required to install rooftop solar panels by 2025, with these panels to be made mandatory on residential buildings by 2029.

Thats going to be a massive investment in grid infrastructure. Go long copper!
Most existing grid connections to houses can only really cope with 1 or 2 sets of solar panels per string. I overloaded my local string a few years ago on peak output day when I was on holiday. No working from home then so nowhere for the extra power to go, voltage went up etc.
Unless they mean one solar panel per house, have seen that on some newbuild estates in England.

Thats of course if they have thought of the practicalities.

[HousePriceMania]

Apple down nearly 5% today, petrofac up nearly 3%

 

I love this thread 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

17 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Thats going to be a massive investment in grid infrastructure. Go long copper!
Most existing grid connections to houses can only really cope with 1 or 2 sets of solar panels per string. I overloaded my local string a few years ago on peak output day when I was on holiday. No working from home then so nowhere for the extra power to go, voltage went up etc.
Unless they mean one solar panel per house, have seen that on some newbuild estates in England.

Thats of course if they have thought of the practicalities.

Practicalities such as mining all the input metals, manufacturing the finished panels, training enough installers, etc? No they haven't thought of those. This is just fluffy propaganda to make it appear there is a plan for the shit sandwich they have created other than put some ketchup on top and munch it down.

[leonardratso]

Im just turning up my air con and central heating and leaving every light and electrical device on 24/7.

I dont expect anyone round to arrest/shoot me, the bills will be through the roof, but thats my middle finger up to the govt, could do a runner i suppose.

[DurhamBorn]

Rolling 12 months Vanguard 60/40 with IFA fees will be down 1.7%.Anyone in drawdown taking 5% as most with IFAs do will have a fund down 6.7%,17% down inflation adjusted.

Now anyone not in drawdown its not a disaster of course,at least nominal,but these funds are the backbone of drawdown and have not been tested in a sustained downturn.Even now those in drawdown are going into year two with 6.7% less.So unless they increase the % they draw their income will be down 17% this year compared to last.

If we take £100k drawing £4k a year on the above -1.7%pa after 8 years you have £50k left.At inflation of 6%pa over those 8 years you would need to be drawing £6500 at the end to maintain spending power.About 6 years money left.

I see no way how the government can increase state workers pensions by inflation while this is whats likely in the private sector.

I think this inflation is going to rip away peoples retirements,then their houses as they Equity release to try to make it through.

There is pretty much zero incentive to work for most people unless its for the state.BOE getting the flak ensures monetising gilts is over.Government is trapped in a disaster.

 

[Pip321]

Just seen agricultural farm land in Malton (North Yorkshire) to be used as solar panels. Objections by locals perhaps for all the wrong reasons….but why on earth would we want less productive wheat growing farm land at the moment. Its a wheat growing area on excellent agricultural land…I am sure there are letter places to stick panels ie factory roofs etc  

You couldn’t make this shite up.

As an aside….thoughts on buying farmland? I am having a look and wonder if it’s the best hedge of all? I wouldn’t farm it myself but let one of the massive tenant agricultural farmers use it. 

[snaga]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Rolling 12 months Vanguard 60/40 with IFA fees will be down 1.7%.Anyone in drawdown taking 5% as most with IFAs do will have a fund down 6.7%,17% down inflation adjusted.

Now anyone not in drawdown its not a disaster of course,at least nominal,but these funds are the backbone of drawdown and have not been tested in a sustained downturn.Even now those in drawdown are going into year two with 6.7% less.So unless they increase the % they draw their income will be down 17% this year compared to last.

If we take £100k drawing £4k a year on the above -1.7%pa after 8 years you have £50k left.At inflation of 6%pa over those 8 years you would need to be drawing £6500 at the end to maintain spending power.About 6 years money left.

I see no way how the government can increase state workers pensions by inflation while this is whats likely in the private sector.

I think this inflation is going to rip away peoples retirements,then their houses as they Equity release to try to make it through.

There is pretty much zero incentive to work for most people unless its for the state.BOE getting the flak ensures monetising gilts is over.Government is trapped in a disaster.

 

opting out of work pension schemes is also one way to cope with inflation, people will be paying less in to pensions if they need the money for rent.

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Just seen agricultural farm land in Malton (North Yorkshire) to be used as solar panels. Objections by locals perhaps for all the wrong reasons….but why on earth would we want less productive wheat growing farm land at the moment. Its a wheat growing area on excellent agricultural land…I am sure there are letter places to stick panels ie factory roofs etc  

You couldn’t make this shite up.

As an aside….thoughts on buying farmland? I am having a look and wonder if it’s the best hedge of all? I wouldn’t farm it myself but let one of the massive tenant agricultural farmers use it. 

They put a solar farm in a field, just outside a market town in Dorset probably about ten years ago, they are building houses on the site now.

As for farmland, I saw a 16 acre sloping field outside the same market town sell for £300,000 recently.

[snaga]

10 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Just seen agricultural farm land in Malton (North Yorkshire) to be used as solar panels. Objections by locals perhaps for all the wrong reasons….but why on earth would we want less productive wheat growing farm land at the moment. Its a wheat growing area on excellent agricultural land…I am sure there are letter places to stick panels ie factory roofs etc  

You couldn’t make this shite up.

As an aside….thoughts on buying farmland? I am having a look and wonder if it’s the best hedge of all? I wouldn’t farm it myself but let one of the massive tenant agricultural farmers use it. 

I looked for a way to buy into agricultural land, and other than actually buying land and all the hassle that brings with it, it's not possible as far as I could see. No funds etc. Seems to be a closed shop for the rich and powerful

[M S E Refugee]

UK families warm themselves at McDonald’s – Guardian https://www.rt.com/news/555710-energy-costs-poor-crisis-uk/

McDonald's withdrew from Russia so they won't be able to keep warm.

More 4D chess from the West.

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[feed]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

I'll just leave this here.  

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, feed said:

I'll just leave this here.  

Indeed, not everything is doing badly:

[Cosmic]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Thats going to be a massive investment in grid infrastructure. Go long copper!
Most existing grid connections to houses can only really cope with 1 or 2 sets of solar panels per string. I overloaded my local string a few years ago on peak output day when I was on holiday. No working from home then so nowhere for the extra power to go, voltage went up etc.
Unless they mean one solar panel per house, have seen that on some newbuild estates in England.

Thats of course if they have thought of the practicalities.

Can't you just, you know, turn them off? Or just stop feeding if the voltage increases past X.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Sky Sports just now.

Sell your gold and jewelry advert.

Hilarious.

Next will be some kind of Government scheme asking people to sell their gold back to the Treasury.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Errol said:

Hilarious.

Not your advert then?

[feed]

4 minutes ago, Errol said:

Hilarious.

Next will be some kind of Government scheme asking people to sell their gold back to the Treasury.

they're just getting ahead of the curve

[Bricormortis]

2 hours ago, feed said:

How much silver in a solar panel? 

Just under an ounce.

[Bricormortis]

US markets getting stuffed. 

[Pip321]

50 minutes ago, snaga said:

I looked for a way to buy into agricultural land, and other than actually buying land and all the hassle that brings with it, it's not possible as far as I could see. No funds etc. Seems to be a closed shop for the rich and powerful

I was thinking ‘physical’….there is hassle and it would need to be carefully selected. You are right though, good point well made….is probably not truly passive income. 

52 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:They put a solar farm in a field, just outside a market town in Dorset probably about ten years ago, they are building houses on the site now.

As for farmland, I saw a 16 acre sloping field outside the same market town sell for £300,000 recently.

Thx. Good point…that’s too much and I guess it’s important to avoid land with hope value or too near towns. I would be looking for £10k an acre. Like gold it ‘seems’ to have held a price for years when it should have been going up. 

Just done extensive 3 minute search 😂 but interesting found an example 113 acres for £700k in North York’s but of course I have no idea of the quality of land and I bet that’s variable to say the least.

£700k is a big punt….I may need to find a few friends to split and share that with 🤦🏻‍♂️🤔

[Bobthebuilder]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Decades of work and learning.

The fact that you shared this on HPC and then moving over to here, shows your character. Working class folk, helping out the small man. You could have gone the Youtube video way and made a name for yourself, again you didnt.

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I also sometimes feel my work was wasted to a large extent

Maybe you should have gone into politics, and I mean that. Its hard to make a difference, but "you never know, what's gonna happen".

Someone is gonna write a book about you someday.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

US markets getting stuffed. 

Proper!

[sancho panza]

18 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Notice how they said turn down air conditioning, not hearing. Does Europe need more a/c or heating? And Germans don't wash properly anyway, that's another gimme.

As we've been saying for a while, the stupid fucks and their stupid policies are going to have frightened pensioners freezing to death. I hope the captured media reports it this time, and not do another Covid propaganda job on it. 

But they will, won't they. Keep an eye on your isolated elderly this winter, no one else is going to help them.

 

Looks like Comrade Ardern is begining to taste the bile.The left wing meeja obviously blame Brexit/Russia/cost of living crisis but likely the young opting not to live under a Maoist regime

It would be ironic if the debt deflation kicked off in a far flung margin of the world economy and not one of the big ones,but the Bank Of New Zealand did invent the 2% inflation target.......jsut sayin'''

Priti should get on the phone and do a deal...life under (name of tinpot African Dictator) or Ardern??Should stop the rot.

 

 

Young people leaving New Zealand in droves amid worsening cost of living (msn.com)

New Zealand has reported a net loss of migrants for the second year in a row as more residents decided to leave the country amid the rising cost of living.

About 7,300 more people left the country in the year ending March 2022 than those choosing to build a life in New Zealand, according to figures recently released by Stats NZ, the country’s official data agency.

Last year, it recorded a net loss of 1,700 people, making it the lowest net migration since 2012. In 2020, the country saw a record net gain of 91,700.

“Migrant arrivals have dropped to levels seen in the mid-1980s,” said Statistics New Zealand’s population indicator manager Tehseen Islam as he blamed the record dip on Covid-19-related travel and border restrictions.

With the country dealing with high inflation of 6.9 per cent and tough economic conditions driven by high living costs, New Zealand residents are heading off overseas in droves.

The provisional loss of residents is largely driven by non-citizens, as about 33,300 left the border, while just 23,900 arrived, leading to a net loss of 9,400. For the same period, about 22,200 citizens returned to the country, while 20,100 went overseas leading to a net gain of 2,100.

The increase in migration was especially observed among young adults between 18 to 27 years, with about 1,800 citizens belonging to this age group leaving the country. With the unemployment rate at 3.2 per cent, economists fear that the loss of workforce could contribute to labour shortage in the country.

“It’s a huge reversal – and the first time we’ve seen those negative figures since the global financial crisis, the Christchurch earthquakes and the Australian mining boom all combined in the early 2010s,” Brad Oslen, Infometrics principal economist and director, told The Guardian.

“The difficulty finding workers is extreme around the country – you have a smaller working age population than the year before, at a time when everyone is desperately calling out for workers. [It] really just exacerbates the pressures that businesses are under.”

Meanwhile, the opposition Act Party slammed Labour for their Covid-19 policy.

“Labour’s chickens have come home to roost. By locking the economy down and borrowing $50bn, they have left us with a mountain of debt and rising prices. Kiwis are finding it difficult to make ends meet and are heading offshore for a better chance of getting ahead in life,” said the leader of the party, David Seymour.

“Now we’re seeing changes at the border but it’s too little too late, we’ve already gained the reputation of a hermit kingdom overseas and are becoming less and less attractive as a destination.”

Earlier in May, New Zealand opened its borders to visitors for the first time since the pandemic started as it moved away from its “zero Covid” policy that was enforced through rigorous test-and-trace programmes, accepting that it became unsustainable with the spread of the highly infectious Delta and then Omicron variants.

Prime minister Jacinda Ardern announced in October last year that the strategy of completely keeping out or eradicating Covid would be “phased out”, and subsequently began easing restrictions once around 80 per cent of the country’s five million population were fully vaccinated.

From news to politics, travel to sport, culture to climate – The Independent has a host of free newsletters to suit your interests. To find the stories you want to read, and more, in your inbox, click here.

 

[Froggy2000]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

I was thinking ‘physical’….there is hassle and it would need to be carefully selected. You are right though, good point well made….is probably not truly passive income. 

Thx. Good point…that’s too much and I guess it’s important to avoid land with hope value or too near towns. I would be looking for £10k an acre. Like gold it ‘seems’ to have held a price for years when it should have been going up. 

Just done extensive 3 minute search 😂 but interesting found an example 113 acres for £700k in North York’s but of course I have no idea of the quality of land and I bet that’s variable to say the least.

£700k is a big punt….I may need to find a few friends to split and share that with 🤦🏻‍♂️🤔

I looked into this a few years ago, partly as a result of this thread. One concern I had was agriculture in the UK is subsidised by CAP and as you say also has speculative premium due to planning permission potential. Its not unfortunately quite the pure play on agriculture you would hope it would be.

Having said that, have you looked at woodland? Its still an inflation hedge and you can really enjoy it with family etc for not much money. Especially important if normal holidays become out of reach etc. Can buy it with a SIPP too.