Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

anotehr good recession indicator from a 'hot money' sector,question for me is when the banks will follow?

The 1 year/YTD looks indicative that the top was likely in for hosue prices some time last year in the real world.Obviously in Natiowide index world we're probably going up.Huge structural issues with liquidity in the hsouing market.Glad I'm nowhere near it.

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is the key focus of the Fed,getting that out into the economy,if they fail they will go back to monetizing government debt instead.

Everybody and everything  is up to their eyeballs in debt. Much as they might want to push more debt out there just can't see how they're gonna do it. More printing I reckon.

[janch]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Earlier this week, Tesco chair John Allan told the BBC's Today programme that some customers were already rationing food purchases, and called on the government to do more to help those hardest hit, to protect Tesco's profits so their executives can keep on troughing.

Was this your addition?

[janch]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Good morning boys & girlies!

 

Hope YOU are all enjoying the... MELT-UP!

 

 

Best Regards,

 

SIR David Hunter.

 

 

But....but he never said what he expected to melt up.  Maybe he meant anything energy related eg oil/gas/coal/energy companies such as SSE/Drax/NG etc or the equivalent in the US.

Perhaps that's why we have to watch and learn and not just assume he meant S&P/Nasdaq. 

He's 'avin a larf......

[Boon]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

anotehr good recession indicator from a 'hot money' sector,question for me is when the banks will follow?

The 1 year/YTD looks indicative that the top was likely in for hosue prices some time last year in the real world.Obviously in Natiowide index world we're probably going up.Huge structural issues with liquidity in the hsouing market.Glad I'm nowhere near it.

Housebuilders are cheap in the main on both tangible book values and earnings.

I think underpinning a lot of their prices are at least historically building houses has been lucrative. I do think the props introduced to the market has enabled people to be not price sensitive at all and of course the interest rate. Someone buying on a prop only really cares about the monthly cost.

Second thing is that the valuation of plots on their books. However I don't know how much of this is correlated with the first point. Maybe most of it.

So there could be a death spiral in progress. If construction costs go up 10% it isn't as easy as just adding 10% to the final price, higher interest rates may make some projects not worth it. Maybe the builders may become BTR as well.

However I do suspect that as part of being good lads with the cladding there may be some more props coming down the line. Which could still see the housebuilders being successful even if the rest of the housing market is crap.

Good time to buy it is when everyone hates it. Not sure its there yet but it may not be far off.

[sancho panza]

@kibuc interesting move today

[JMD]

19 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The fact that you shared this on HPC and then moving over to here, shows your character. Working class folk, helping out the small man. You could have gone the Youtube video way and made a name for yourself, again you didnt.

Someone is gonna write a book about you someday.

And when they make 'the film of the book', who will be cast as the main DB character? Much depends on the film plot of course... but knowing Hollywood they will either attempt an upmarket-stylish politico-finance thriller - or just go for lowest denominator belly laughs... so probably choice between Christian Bale and Ricky Gervais?!

[JMD]

18 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

The electricity supply system used to be dead simple, now they are turning it into an expensive, high tech, interlinked, cpu and internet driven mess.

They are just aping the Tesla automotive model. 

[Noallegiance]

40 minutes ago, janch said:

But....but he never said what he expected to melt up.  Maybe he meant anything energy related eg oil/gas/coal/energy companies such as SSE/Drax/NG etc or the equivalent in the US.

Perhaps that's why we have to watch and learn and not just assume he meant S&P/Nasdaq. 

He's 'avin a larf......

No he's stated that it will be a broad rally, led by PMs.

[JMD]

14 hours ago, AWW said:

I remember being so optimistic for the LD/CON coalition back in 2010. Liberal social policy with good economic stewardship. Look how that turned out. I can't see how I'll do anything other than spoil ballots now.

If that's your bag, then the SDP kinda fill that remit and are still going, just saying.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, janch said:

Was this your addition?

Well done!

[janch]

 

Shaun Richards is interesting today:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

He's talking about everyone buying coal and also how the rise in the dollar is affecting eg Japan which used to have a trade surplus.

TOKYO (AP) — Japan recorded a trade deficit in April as its imports ballooned 28% due to soaring energy costs and the yen’s weakness against the dollar.

Japan’s trade deficit totaled 839 billion yen ($7 billion) in April, for the ninth straight monthly deficit. In contrast, the world’s third-largest economy had recorded a surplus of nearly 227 billion yen in April last year.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

@Bricormortis made me draw up a lsit ref rpeviosu point

 

Dignity a general retailer? It's not really Christmas present material. That was another I sold too early but it would be inappropriate to say the covid death toll was annoying low.

[Noallegiance]

European printy printy continuation confirmed:

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/eu-commission-to-propose-keeping-fiscal-rules-suspended-in-2023officials-2652547

[HousePriceMania]

Apple down again

Petrofac up again

Life is good.

[Harley]

This podcast sooooo belongs here it makes you wonder.  Got loads of the themes mentioned here, but some are only mentioned in passing (like buying fixed debt companies) so needs attention.

 https://anchor.fm/stephen-clapham1/episodes/Episode-9---Two-Capital-Cyclists-e1h4g9m

Napier and co, of course!

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Option5 said:

In fairness to Rishi, nowhere in that statement does he say that the months will be consecutive.

They could be:-

May 2022

January 2023

November 2023

Ad infinitum

 

I think if we had access to Mrs Sunak's residency calendar, her husband's (Mr Sunak) financial pronouncements would begin to make sense!

[HousePriceMania]

Royal mail warns it'll put up prices

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61505862

Royal Mail is going bust IMHO

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Royal mail warns it'll put up prices

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61505862

Royal Mail is going bust IMHO

It seems to be in a death spiral. How many people/orgs need to send a letter badly enough to warrant spending nearly a quid first class?

That said it will never be allowed to fail. Letting them only deliver 3 days a week to any given address would solve a lot of their problems IMO, at least for a while, and at no cost to the government.

[Colliedog1]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Royal mail warns it'll put up prices

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61505862

Royal Mail is going bust IMHO

I always send second class, first class is a rip off

[M S E Refugee]

18 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

It seems to be in a death spiral. How many people/orgs need to send a letter badly enough to warrant spending nearly a quid first class?

That said it will never be allowed to fail. Letting them only deliver 3 days a week to any given address would solve a lot of their problems IMO, at least for a while, and at no cost to the government.

We still process a decent amount of letters, Local Government and the NHS like to pay us a few hundred pounds a year to collect a handful of letters from them when they could walk a few yards and post them in a meter box.

Lazy cunts!

[Plan-b]

I could be wrong here so bear with me...

Recent talk of the US Reverse Repo operations which I understand basically means the opposite of QE or money printing, had me thinking I wonder what the Bank of England is doing being as we follow the yanks like sheep.

It Looks like the BoE are going their own way and still printing to the tune of around £3.4 ish Billion a week.

So printing in the face of 9% inflation? Strong move.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/weekly-report/2022/18-may-2022

 

 

 

•  

[DurhamBorn]

28 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

It seems to be in a death spiral. How many people/orgs need to send a letter badly enough to warrant spending nearly a quid first class?

That said it will never be allowed to fail. Letting them only deliver 3 days a week to any given address would solve a lot of their problems IMO, at least for a while, and at no cost to the government.

Postie delivered me a parcel today,like other couriers BUT he had around 14 letters in his hand for my close as well.Other couriers would of had to drive to me for one parcel,then drive away.Royal Mail got to deliver 14 letters as well while here.Thats a massive competitive advantage.Putting prices up higher than demand is falling is the road to riches,just ask BAT.I think your right on letting them drop deliveries some days for letters,especially in some remote areas.Lots of shorts in RM,they will close out soon enough,im starting to buy a few and hope it drifts down some more.

[feed]

I do about £2k a year in parcels, they increase the prices, i'll eat it.
There just isn't any service better for small (2kg) parcels. 

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Postie delivered me a parcel today,like other couriers BUT he had around 14 letters in his hand for my close as well.Other couriers would of had to drive to me for one parcel,then drive away.Royal Mail got to deliver 14 letters as well while here.Thats a massive competitive advantage.Putting prices up higher than demand is falling is the road to riches,just ask BAT.I think your right on letting them drop deliveries some days for letters,especially in some remote areas.Lots of shorts in RM,they will close out soon enough,im starting to buy a few and hope it drifts down some more.

Amazon and DPD must waste a lot of fuel in rural areas as they haven't a clue where they are going.

I often see them going backwards and forwards through my village completely lost.