Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup would most likely be real a Superocean Heritage would about £4k new in 2017. Was considering one on Tesco points exchanged x3 to Goldsmiths back then but decided to go the extra mile for a Rolex BLNR instead (sadly sold now)

The watch of a Sportsman

 

[Pip321]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think that might be what changes things,the 10% bennie and retired government workers uplifts.It comes alongside allowance freezes in tax and will be paid for with more inflation on the workers paying for it.

Funny enough,some of the worst hit will be government and council workers still working.They will see retired getting 10% while they get 4%ish.The line between work and not is already in the wrong place.If i was public sector within a few years of retiring id go now because youl get the much bigger increase in pension than wages.Its economics of the madhouse.If someone aged 12 was learning macro and came up with it they would get a slap from their mentor.

Those 10% increases come directly from people not getting 10%.Dishi has already undone all the decent work the Cameron government did on welfare.Not enough,but they made some progress.This government seem unable to argue any case at all and simply live in fear of the left wing press etc.

Luckily the BOE is out of the picture for printing.Their models have been a disaster.The government is fighting the economy trying to fix itself.Its telling them those 50% consuming and not producing need to consume much less and then produce much more.Government is trying to let them consume even more of what someone else produces and for even more to hang up their boots.It really is macro suicide.

I worked for a big finance group. They froze our pensions in 2012 ish. Ie I did get a 1/60th more for every extra year worked but it was based in my 2012 pay. Our scheme offered a 50 year retirement but with penalties….which no one was prepared to take. 

So I left a 50, knowing my pension was then index linked and worked out it would increase (relatively) faster than my salary, and a lot faster than my frozen pension.  I worked out by 65 the pension in payment  would be have risen with RPI and be almost the same as if I had waited to retire at 65. Balmy. 

My boss was a senior director (decent chap…an actuary) and was shocked when I showed him, his scheme was very different of course😆😆. I left on very good terms for lots of positive reasons but this was contributing factor to my planning to leave in the first instance. 

As an aside I transferred my pension to a SIPP because of the massive offer the pension funds made and also my circumstances and other assets made it a sensible idea (not advocating for others)…that’s another story😉

[M S E Refugee]

9 minutes ago, feed said:

The great reset is done.  Assuming it was ever real.

Xi, Putin, Modi are all nationalists.  3 Billion people directly and the SE Asia regions under Chinese influence, it's almost half the worlds population.  

Our leaders are myopic, but at some point the western elites will figure out that they now have more to fear from the populations of other countries than they do from their own populations.  Presumably after the Ukraine capitulates.   

The crisis of confidence, in getting it wrong again and that reducing national identity, in the face of the balkanisation of the world, was a really stupid idea.  They will want a buffer of native mass population to protect them.  Our politicians are ideological opportunists and will turn to nationalism.   

it'll be a return to the 1950's. Both standard of living and cultural paranoia, suspicion and fear of the "other".  

 

I do get the feeling that possibly the Bilderbergers have been played by the Russians and Chinese, hence the recent meetings of the WEF and Bilderbergers in quick succession.

 

[feed]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I do get the feeling that possibly the Bilderbergers have been played by the Russians and Chinese, hence the meetings of the WEF and Bilderbergers in quick succession.

 

Sanctioning the Russian reserves.  I don't know if they were played or not.  If it was a trap or not.
But, it was always going to change everything.  Arrogance, hubris, stupidity to not expect a reaction.  

[Chewing Grass]

Carmageddon, the SMMT data is out for May.

Luxury car sales decimated, only Manufacturers doing OK are Dacia, MG, Polestar and Porsche.

Tesla doesn't play ball with the SMMT.

JLR doing appallingly.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

[kibuc]

Does anyone remember what rules used to apply in regard to arriving in UK from EU with gold/silver (particularly Britannias or other legal tender) on you before Brexit? Was there a customs declaration, any limits etc? Or was it legally possible to bring it in without notifying the authorities? 

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, MMax said:

 

Sounds good. I will do some research.  Thanks again.

I'd include this page as part of your research

https://check-long-term-flood-risk.service.gov.uk/map

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is that why the stock market is flying ?

 

I thought it might be number go down this morning looking at the headlines, Boris, UK sending long range rockets to Ukraine, Tube strike, US/S Korea launching rockets at N Korea. No, all good!

[Loki]

U.K. 15 Year Gilt 2.475%

U.K. 30 Year Gilt 2.457%

U.K. 50 Year Gilt 2.266%

 

That's not right surely?

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I thought it might be number go down this morning looking at the headlines, Boris, UK sending long range rockets to Ukraine, Tube strike, US/S Korea launching rockets at N Korea. No, all good!

Dont forget Evergrande.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

U.K. 15 Year Gilt 2.475%

U.K. 30 Year Gilt 2.457%

U.K. 50 Year Gilt 2.266%

 

That's not right surely?

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Does anyone remember what rules used to apply in regard to arriving in UK from EU with gold/silver 

Yeah, keep it in your pocket like it's loose change and dont tell anyone you have it.

[Castlevania]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think that might be what changes things,the 10% bennie and retired government workers uplifts.It comes alongside allowance freezes in tax and will be paid for with more inflation on the workers paying for it.

Funny enough,some of the worst hit will be government and council workers still working.They will see retired getting 10% while they get 4%ish.The line between work and not is already in the wrong place.If i was public sector within a few years of retiring id go now because youl get the much bigger increase in pension than wages.Its economics of the madhouse.If someone aged 12 was learning macro and came up with it they would get a slap from their mentor.

Those 10% increases come directly from people not getting 10%.Dishi has already undone all the decent work the Cameron government did on welfare.Not enough,but they made some progress.This government seem unable to argue any case at all and simply live in fear of the left wing press etc.

Luckily the BOE is out of the picture for printing.Their models have been a disaster.The government is fighting the economy trying to fix itself.Its telling them those 50% consuming and not producing need to consume much less and then produce much more.Government is trying to let them consume even more of what someone else produces and for even more to hang up their boots.It really is macro suicide.

If you’re on an average salary scheme all the prior years are inflation linked.

[Plan-b]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Yeah, keep it in your pocket like it's loose change and dont tell anyone you have it.

Wear It ... 

[Axeman123]

22 minutes ago, feed said:

Sanctioning the Russian reserves.

I almost wonder if "our" elites couldn't bear slipping down the global totem pole with a shift to a multipolar world, and actively want a smaller hermit kingdom all to themselves. It is the only scenario that I can see where sanctioning those reserves wasn't a mistake.

[feed]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I almost wonder if "our" elites couldn't bear slipping down the global totem pole with a shift to a multipolar world, and actively want a smaller hermit kingdom all to themselves. It is the only scenario that I can see where sanctioning those reserves wasn't a mistake.

i think it was almost certainly a mistake, a failure to understand the consequences as the decision to do it came from the white house, with no input from the FED or Wall street.

Like Trudeau and almost creating a bank run in Canada by freezing bank accounts.  

[Micky Roberts]

32 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Carmageddon, the SMMT data is out for May.

Luxury car sales decimated, only Manufacturers doing OK are Dacia, MG, Polestar and Porsche.

Tesla doesn't play ball with the SMMT.

JLR doing appallingly.

 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

A well placed source in one of the main UK car distributors tells me that demand for new cars remains very high. The issue is one of supply*. Orders placed today may not be fulfilled until next year.

Demand for used cars has eased slightly but nearly new popular models are still trading at close to their original selling price.

*Reduced production capacity and shortage of key components to blame

[sancho panza]

Third week in a row and third red candlestick in the Heiken Ashi DXY weeklies.Weak dollar phase developing.Could see gold/oil higher.If we get a run in the monthlies then I think it's the most serious warning a the BK wave is going to roll over into a crash.

Jsut my view.DYOR natch

Decl:we're still 80% to 85%% long(oilies/goldies/comms/baccy) and 10% cash.Definitely not shorting here.Still riding the wave.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Micky Roberts said:

A well placed source in one of the main UK car distributors tells me that demand for new cars remains very high. The issue is one of supply*. Orders placed today may not be fulfilled until next year.

Demand for used cars has eased slightly but nearly new popular models are still trading at close to their original selling price.

*Reduced production capacity and shortage of key components to blame

A woman selling dogs told me the same last year.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, sancho panza said:

Third week in a row and third red candlestick in the Heiken Ashi DXY weeklies.Weak dollar phase developing.Could see gold/oil higher.If we get a run in the monthlies then I think it's the most serious warning a the BK wave is going to roll over into a crash.

Jsut my view.DYOR natch

In my mind's eye you are surfing a monster wave shouting, "come on, fucking break, I've got my shorts on!" For this purpose I didn't consider that you don't yet have your shorts on.

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

In my mind's eye you are surfing a monster wave shouting, "come on, fucking break, I've got my shorts on!" For this purpose I didn't consider that you don't yet have your shorts on.

No I've no shorts on.That's my point.I will clarify above.Appreciate I wasn't clear.Whislt normally I don't consider gold a DXY trade,I think historically there's evidence to support going long jsut before a recession with a weakending dollar is a trade that has paid out in teh past,dyor etc.

Edit to add:clarified in the psot.Personal view is that if you short here on a two to four month timeframe you could get badly burned if that DXY weakens some more.Imho this is the msot dangerous phase of the last few years,shorting early here could really hurt.If I don't see that opportunity then we'll jsut sittight in the stocks we've got  aka Plan B.

[Mapper]

Re entropy, I watched a low budget doc on YT titled something like, "What if all the people suddenly disappeared?"

I can't vouch for its accuracy, but something that struck me was a claim that after a relatively short time (a few thousand years I think), nothing would be left to show humans had ever existed. Even concrete would degrade back into nature.

Actually, there would be one place with evidence of humans...

Don't know if my spoiler text will work, so I pushed the answer below the fold (I hope).

 

 

 

the Moon

 

[HousePriceMania]

If you shorted Amazon....now might be the time to sell




What's going on there ?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

No I've no shorts on.That's my point.I will clarify above.Appreciate I wasn't clear.

Edit to add:clarified in the psot.Personal view is that if you short here on a two to four month timeframe you could get badly burned if that DXY weakens some more.Imho this is the msot dangerous phase of the last few years,shorting early here could really hurt.If I don't see that opportunity then we'll jsut sittight in the stocks we've got  aka Plan B.

I know you don't have shorts on yet as you have explained previously that you're being cautious with the timing and signals. Dual meaning of shorts in the context of my surfing imagery! One of the few things I remember from English lessons at school was an explanation of ambiguity and it's usefulness in jokes.

[marceau]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Our leaders are myopic, but at some point the western elites will figure out that they now have more to fear from the populations of other countries than they do from their own populations.  Presumably after the Ukraine capitulates.   

The crisis of confidence, in getting it wrong again and that reducing national identity, in the face of the balkanisation of the world, was a really stupid idea.  They will want a buffer of native mass population to protect them.  Our politicians are ideological opportunists and will turn to nationalism.   

it'll be a return to the 1950's. Both standard of living and cultural paranoia, suspicion and fear of the "other".  

 

Not likely imo. In younger age groups the ethnic English are a firm minority in all the big cities. The current Brit 'elites' will cling to the delusion until the bitter end, they'll have no choice.

Solution, if it comes at all, will be from rebels or outsiders. One way or another the current crop will be disposed of.

1 hour ago, feed said:

The great reset is done.  Assuming it was ever real.

Xi, Putin, Modi are all nationalists.  3 Billion people directly and the SE Asia regions under Chinese influence, it's almost half the worlds population.  

The notion that Open Society, WEF etc are the future is the most laughable shit. All the key players are in their 70s or 80s, decrepit larpers with delusions of grandeur.  The key objective seems to be to recreate the material conditions of the 1990s, only this time with electorates and obligations neatly sidelined so the elites can exist as neo-aristocrats.

It's like a bankrupt old guy who's spent the family fortune wishing he could go back a few decades to when he was younger and had money. Obviously impossible, but even if it wasn't, he'd still be on the path the led him to his predicament. Decadent and pointless thinking.

The supposed new generation who they've picked to carry the torch are either compliant airheads or dullard nepotes. As soon as the 'olds' go it'll fall to pieces. The wealth gets put into trust and can be easily seized/repurposed by whoever takes over.