Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bricormortis]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Europe told to be ready for total cut of Russian gas https://www.rt.com/business/557599-europe-russian-gas-cut/

 

Dont worry Greta's fan club have repeatedly assured us it will all be fine, we will all be living in warm homes with affordable heating. Some bird on telly said so just last year. Leader of Scottish greens I think. Also Caroline Lucas, same soundbite.

Putin will laugh so hard he really will be dead by christmas. Asphyxia, internal injuries and lack of sleep because he can't stop laughing.

[M S E Refugee]

Biden predicts ‘second pandemic’ https://www.rt.com/news/557616-biden-predicts-second-pandemic/

[M S E Refugee]

New QE?

[dnb24]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

There's a huge lag isn't there?I still think the general public believes in brix n mortar as an investment class,it will take som ebig headlines to shake the faith of the last fifty years.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/06/21/housing-bubble-woes-supply-jumps-sales-drop-bottom-falls-out-below-500000-amid-holy-moly-mortgage-rates-median-price-skewed-higher-by-shift-in-mix/
 

It’s wolfs main point here- the lag is important but seems things are changing in the US now

The main tag line- California special: Pending sales collapse by 30%, prices begin to “moderate,” San Francisco condo prices decline year-over-year.

 

[HousePriceMania]

Howz everyone's investments doing this week ?

Just having a look for mine now

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

There's a huge lag isn't there?I still think the general public believes in brix n mortar as an investment class,it will take som ebig headlines to shake the faith of the last fifty years.

As I’ve said previously to colleagues, in a few years, people will be looking back and thinking to themselves, what on earth possessed them to take on nearly £1/5-1m BTL debt and think it was a good idea. What was once considered savvy investing will suddenly seem very silly. Instead of boasting how many properties they have, they’ll suddenly go quiet as it will be a gauge of how much money they’re hemorrhaging.

The general masses follow the consensus and rarely look back or forward. All of a sudden property won’t be considered an investment and more of a money pit, especially large, old, energy sapping houses and BTL.

[ThoughtCriminal]

This is going to end either in war or the end of American hegemony.

 

Possibly even both.

[Ash4781b]

51 minutes ago, marceau said:

They still think that PAYE will suck it up and carry the burden, and while it won't replace lost revenue elsewhere, it will at least remain a stable foundation in the eyes of the market. It's acted in this manner for them since WW2, so why wouldn't they continue to think it? Pensions, public sector, migrant and welfare free-for-all continues; Mr & Mrs Salary get shafted.

There's evidence to suggest that this time they could be wrong. Of course, we only get to see such data long after the event, but real terms decline in the PAYE share of govt revenues could see a rapid policy readjustment (or a panic, as it's more commonly known).

I’m a little worried about productivity. Going into winter if we come off strikes into more energy price hikes it’s going to be a total mess. They Really need to fix the PAYE system. They seem to be raising tax rates. 

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is going to end either in war or the end of American hegemony.

Possibly even both.

Yep and alongside Russia cutting off their gas supplies to hostile EU countries doesn't give any of the parties involved much room to maneuver 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

12 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

I’m a little worried about productivity. Going into winter if we come off strikes into more energy price hikes it’s going to be a total mess. They Really need to fix the PAYE system. They seem to be raising tax rates. 

I think they've decided they have to raise taxes rather than raise interest rates too much, as obviously higher interest rates mean higher interest cost for gov. 

So that presumably means asset prices stay relatively high (houses) as people can still borrow money at a relatively low rate, and owning assets continues to beat working. With essentials and taxes all going up, something has to give, but there's probably a fair bit of slack where people could cut down on cost of car or holidays.

 

Edit to add: this would also tie in with Dave Hunter's melt up, once people realise the tightening is already nearly done 

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/sri-lankas-prime-minister-says-economy-has-collapsed-1323392.html

Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister says economy has collapsed

[Xtal]

31 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Howz everyone's investments doing this week ?

Just having a look for mine now

 

Thanks to this thread , really not that badly.And that with me being recklessly overweight in junior silver miners.

[geordie_lurch]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Howz everyone's investments doing this week ?

Just having a look for mine now

 

I'm ok here as I'm currently 87% cash in my Stocks and Shares ISA with BATS my largest allocation left now bay far

[feed]

Demand destruction, it isn't. 

139 days to the mid terms 

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Xtal said:

Thanks to this thread , really not that badly.And that with me being recklessly overweight in junior silver miners.

I only really have miners and oil now.  I check today the stuff I had sold out, 10% down now, so can't complain.

 

[BWW]

22 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

As I’ve said previously to colleagues, in a few years, people will be looking back and thinking to themselves, what on earth possessed them to take on nearly £1/5-1m BTL debt and think it was a good idea. What was once considered savvy investing will suddenly seem very silly. Instead of boasting how many properties they have, they’ll suddenly go quiet as it will be a gauge of how much money they’re hemorrhaging.

The general masses follow the consensus and rarely look back or forward. All of a sudden property won’t be considered an investment and more of a money pit, especially large, old, energy sapping houses and BTL.

are you preparing for adding a tagline to be shared with hpc.

only very few are going to regret the loan. most who bought in last couple of years and or allowed a letting agent to feather the la nest by giving them an asbo non payer.

the rest will exit with a nominal profit and if leveraged significant real profit due too the low ir rip off scam.

hp.s will drift up a bit nominal whilst bread and leccy increases few hundred bits at the same time.

i was making that sort of post on hpc repeatedly ca 2005-7. 15 yrs plus ca change.

[Majorpain]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is going to end either in war or the end of American hegemony.

 

Possibly even both.

I said ages ago this was going to be a fight to the death between the physical "petro" and fiat "dollar", if the resource rich countries no longer accept the printed money the only thing you can do is pay in something they will accept or invade and try to break them to your will.  The Brics are really too big to be broken, in addition to things like the Saudi's  sticking two fingers up at Biden and getting cosy with Russia, its end of the line IMO.

Keynes gets the last laugh after the US decided it was going down Dollar world reserve currency route and trashed his plan for commodity based system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor

 

[Boon]

22 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

As I’ve said previously to colleagues, in a few years, people will be looking back and thinking to themselves, what on earth possessed them to take on nearly £1/5-1m BTL debt and think it was a good idea. What was once considered savvy investing will suddenly seem very silly. Instead of boasting how many properties they have, they’ll suddenly go quiet as it will be a gauge of how much money they’re hemorrhaging.

The general masses follow the consensus and rarely look back or forward. All of a sudden property won’t be considered an investment and more of a money pit, especially large, old, energy sapping houses and BTL.

BTL and the accidental landlords at higher leverage levels are fucked.

Expensive properties currently which don't have money laundering appeal also, as they depend on this first step.

I do think the very bottom rung is more protected especially outside the South East, because they are cheap already and also I reckon props could be inserted into this part of the market easiest.

Imagine such a scenario where housebuilders are incentivised to go lower in quality and thus build blocks of flats at lower price points. Maybe £100k, so a low-wage worker can go for it.

Government pays mortgage deposit (£20k), thus buyer can move in for free. The deposit stays with the property so not quite free money for them. 

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, Boon said:

Imagine such a scenario where housebuilders are incentivised to go lower in quality and thus build blocks of flats at lower price points. Maybe £100k, so a low-wage worker can go for it.

Government pays mortgage deposit (£20k), thus buyer can move in for free. The deposit stays with the property so not quite free money for them. 

That would take some doing!

[BWW]

28 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is going to end either in war or the end of American hegemony.

 

Possibly even both.

any chance of us switching sides?

i mean ... Boris .... perfect man for that job.

[feed]

 

[M S E Refugee]

Russia needs ‘golden ruble’ – report https://www.rt.com/business/557611-russia-golden-ruble-sanctions/

[kibuc]

I've been with Alexco for a long long time but I'm selling at the open if I can get anything resembling a decent price. When facts change, so does the assessment.

I still believe  it's great value long term, but I cannot accept missing out on shorter-term opportunities while they sort out Keno Hill.

I'll certainly be back when the time and price is right.

Or, perhaps, I won't be leaving at all if it skips through my fill & kill and dumps 20% at the open

[kibuc]

13 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I've been with Alexco for a long long time but I'm selling at the open if I can get anything resembling a decent price. When facts change, so does the assessment.

I still believe  it's great value long term, but I cannot accept missing out on shorter-term opportunities while they sort out Keno Hill.

I'll certainly be back when the time and price is right.

Or, perhaps, I won't be leaving at all if it skips through my fill & kill and dumps 20% at the open

Just an update: HL is so unfit for purpose it hurts my balls.

[Don Coglione]

27 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I've been with Alexco for a long long time but I'm selling at the open if I can get anything resembling a decent price. When facts change, so does the assessment.

I still believe  it's great value long term, but I cannot accept missing out on shorter-term opportunities while they sort out Keno Hill.

I'll certainly be back when the time and price is right.

Or, perhaps, I won't be leaving at all if it skips through my fill & kill and dumps 20% at the open

 

14 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Just an update: HL is so unfit for purpose it hurts my balls.

I suspect you were left holding it!