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What will the Fed do today

Loki

By Loki
in Property Prices & Economy

What will the Fed do today  

54 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the Fed do today?

    • Hold rates
      1
    • Raise by 0.25
      1
    • Raise by 0.50
      6
    • Raise by 0.75
      28
    • Raise by 1.00
      14
    • Lower by 0.25
      0
    • Lower by 0.50
      0
    • Lower by 0.75
      0
    • Lower by 1.00
      2

This poll is closed to new votes

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  • Poll closed on 22/09/22 at 18:05

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Axeman123

Axeman123

Posted
Posted

75bps is 84% implied probability based on the futures market. If they surprise markets it is a big deal, akin to shock therapy. Realistically the news will always be leaked and front-run anyway, so I am not sure it is even possible to surprise markets.

The more interesting question (IMO) would be "what will the Fed signal about the future direction?". I am in the pause to assess impacts camp on that, and the market will treat that as a prelude to lowering rates giving us the melt-up.

 

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Loki

Loki

Posted
  • Author
Posted
4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The more interesting question (IMO) would be "what will the Fed signal about the future direction?". I am in the pause to assess impacts camp on that, and the market will treat that as a prelude to lowering rates giving us the melt-up.

I was thinking the same sort of thing!  But thought it would be interesting to see if there were different rate forecasts.  To me it seems 0.75 is absolutely guaranteed.  The next CPI on October the 13th could be interesting too

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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted

+75bps, Powell to continue to be hawkish

The US seem to be improving their position, and crushing other currencies and making other economies weak strengthens their hand. Ideally they'd want a situation where the world was begging them to devalue a bit.

I don't think they have the property mania as in many other markets, with the stock market being far more popular, but nobody would complain if that dropped 50%. Whereas for here, value of property is heavily political and motivates votes.

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Funn3r

Funn3r

Posted
Posted

Not going to start a parallel thread but wondering what the BOE will do in response.  Bit of a word salad but I think this means that had it not been for the queen then BOE would have got its rate decision in before the fed but now it will have to take account of them and follow. Wondering if that means a higher rate rise than they would otherwise have got away with. 

"This Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published on 22 September 2022.

In light of the period of national mourning now being observed in the United Kingdom, the September 2022 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has been postponed for a period of one week. The Committee’s decision will be announced at 12pm on 22 September."

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Axeman123

Axeman123

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

Not going to start a parallel thread but wondering what the BOE will do in response.

Have to at least match 75bps IMO. Currency under pressure and gilt yields rocketing leaves very little choice.

Unless of course they wantdollar parity:Sick1:

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Castlevania

Castlevania

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Have to at least match 75bps IMO. Currency under pressure and gilt yields rocketing leaves very little choice.

Unless of course they wantdollar parity:Sick1:

And talk hawkishly in the presser after.

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Axeman123

Axeman123

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

And talk hawkishly in the presser after.

Ideally they want to hint that 75bps is the new 25bps, at least for the next 1 or 2 meetings. Afterall, the UK 2 yr gilt yield is 3.4%, nearly double the BoE base rate! 2x 75bps and an early expectation of a third could be enough to catch up, and stop it running further.

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Funn3r

Funn3r

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Ideally they want to hint that 75bps is the new 25bps, at least for the next 1 or 2 meetings. Afterall, the UK 2 yr gilt yield is 3.4%, nearly double the BoE base rate! 2x 75bps and an early expectation of a third could be enough to catch up, and stop it running further.

We can dream. In other news: 

Jonathan Savvy, 26, a BTL Strategist from Uxbridge, has launched a Class Action suit against the BOE and FCA for failing in their fiduciary duty to inform him in writing that interest rates can go up as well as down. "There was no investment risk warning for ourselves as entrepreneurs  consumers."

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

We can dream. In other news: 

Jonathan Savvy, 26, a BTL Strategist from Uxbridge, has launched a Class Action suit against the BOE and FCA for failing in their fiduciary duty to inform him in writing that interest rates can go up as well as down. "There was no investment risk warning for ourselves as entrepreneurs  consumers."

Is that made up ?

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Funn3r

Funn3r

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is that made up ?

Guilty as charged yes

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Bilbo

Bilbo

Posted
Posted

Yes up by .75

The Federal Reserve has unveiled the third 0.75 percentage point increase in US interest rates.

The rise lifts the US central bank's policy rate for the third time to a 3.00-3.25pc range.

The Committee said "ongoing" increases should be expected as it "seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2pc over the longer run".

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King Penda

King Penda

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Would love to be a fly on that shit tonight 

They need to stop fucking about and lead the way like we did basicly out of covid and bang rates up to 8% there’s no point ticking inflation 

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, King Penda said:

They need to stop fucking about and lead the way like we did basicly out of covid and bang rates up to 8% there’s no point ticking inflation 

They wont tho. The UKs only economy is a pyramid scam. 

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