Christmas game to end the year

[haroldshand]

As far as I am concerned the  when the Nationwide data comes out next week it will definitely show a fall, even the Forex future diary is showing a prediction of a -0.7% fall next week, I have not seen that in years now. So what is your prediction for December the  last housing data for the year MOM and for the end of 2023?

I am going for a biggie this month and think next week we will see a MOM fall of -1.7% and by end of next year I am going for a -17% fall

[reformed nice guy]

29 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

As far as I am concerned the  when the Nationwide data comes out next week it will definitely show a fall, even the Forex future diary is showing a prediction of a -0.7% fall next week, I have not seen that in years now. So what is your prediction for December the  last housing data for the year MOM and for the end of 2023?

I am going for a biggie this month and think next week we will see a MOM fall of -1.7% and by end of next year I am going for a -17% fall

I think the yoy fall reported for December 2023 will be relatively small compared to your guess, something like -3%. That will be nominal though.

The last Nationwide yoy change was +4.4% but with 14% RPI or 10% CPI it is a significant real drop.

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-slows-sharply-in-november

I think a -3% nominal drop on a background of something like 8% RPI and 5% CPI. Over 2 years that that would be a real ~20% drop.

That should bolt the horses....

[No One]

22 hours ago, haroldshand said:

As far as I am concerned the  when the Nationwide data comes out next week it will definitely show a fall, even the Forex future diary is showing a prediction of a -0.7% fall next week, I have not seen that in years now. So what is your prediction for December the  last housing data for the year MOM and for the end of 2023?

I am going for a biggie this month and think next week we will see a MOM fall of -1.7% and by end of next year I am going for a -17% fall

Why dont you make a POLL? The forum loves polls

[Boon]

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-continued-to-slow-sharply-as-2022-drew-to-a-close

0.1% seems pretty strange considering the forecast and the previous month. In fact it would be quite easy for the media to be quite bullish about this, but they won't.

Too early to say of course but outside of the Boxing Day rush of listings it does not appear that there has is a sustained uptick. 

I think its likely there will be more forbearance this year (after all it will be Labour's problem to unwind)

My own prediction is that it'll only be a single digit fall at the national level, maybe 8%-9%. Something for everyone then, if you use an inflation adjusted figure that is quite high (although I feel less relevant as the buying power of said money could only be used for property, so it is more the bank's loss), but also people can claim there is no crash.

[One percent]

Just now, Boon said:

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-continued-to-slow-sharply-as-2022-drew-to-a-close

0.1% seems pretty strange considering the forecast and the previous month. In fact it would be quite easy for the media to be quite bullish about this, but they won't.

Too early to say of course but outside of the Boxing Day rush of listings it does not appear that there has is a sustained uptick. 

I think its likely there will be more forbearance this year (after all it will be Labour's problem to unwind)

My own prediction is that it'll only be a single digit fall at the national level, maybe 8%-9%. Something for everyone then, if you use an inflation adjusted figure that is quite high (although I feel less relevant as the buying power of said money could only be used for property, so it is more the bank's loss), but also people can claim there is no crash.

There has been hardy any new listings in my area. A couple of price drops but nothing new hitting the market. Im surprised. 
 

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, One percent said:

There has been hardy any new listings in my area. A couple of price drops but nothing new hitting the market. Im surprised. 
 

It's coming. End of January and it's party time. Credit card bills, gas, electric, council tax, food prices. Imo. 

[Stuey]

Did I read it was just 0.1%... 

See you in about 2040 for your 20% crash...! 

[XswampyX]

2 hours ago, One percent said:

There has been hardy any new listings in my area. A couple of price drops but nothing new hitting the market. Im surprised. 
 

Price drops you say?

[haroldshand]

And yet again my property predictions are totally wrong

Yet again this post/thread would have been just fine in the "Maybe it's different this time" thread.

I still think prices will fall but not as pessimistic as some