Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Thorn]

7 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Prof Jordan Peterson et al follow a long tradition of writing about rights with duties (responsibilities).  Peterson, a clinical psychologist, is worth a read on how it's the responsibilities that give purpose, not the rights (in this case the show-off debtors).

About 1:40 in......

 

Bloody brilliant. Many Thanks, No Duff.

Bloody brilliant. And very similar to Steve Biddulph.

[Alifelessbinary]

 Whether it's the right approach or not, buying physical PM's can be quite an enjoyable hobby, i had no idea the world of Numismatics even existed before a few years ago.

Tracking down some cheap silver at auction or purchasing a few bullion coins provides some spice compared to constantly reading financial reports. I recently brought a small collection of Roman Republic silver coins and the fact that you can quite cheaply own such a cool piece of history is amazing.

 

[Thorn]

2 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

 Whether it's the right approach or not, buying physical PM's can be quite an enjoyable hobby, i had no idea the world of Numismatics even existed before a few years ago.

Tracking down some cheap silver at auction or purchasing a few bullion coins provides some spice compared to constantly reading financial reports. I recently brought a small collection of Roman Republic silver coins and the fact that you can quite cheaply own such a cool piece of history is amazing.

 

Now that is cool.

Do you know what stage of the Roman Empire they were from - apparently people used to find hoards of Roman coins from eras when the Emperors were being bastards and raising taxes.

Velocity of money or what.

[No Duff (troll)]

51 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Bloody brilliant. Many Thanks, No Duff.

Bloody brilliant. And very similar to Steve Biddulph.

Thanks.  I studied this area way back in my student days but it's recently come to the fore.  So important.  I'm an economist and this sort of stuff gives it meaning.  It's loss is why the current economics "profession" is walking in the wilderness.

If you ever want to go heavy into it then go back to the 1700's and meet John Locke, Jean-Jacques Rousseau and co for the neo-classical thoughts on rights (although you could go back further to Greece).  The fascination is that they were almost forced into thinking about this due to the tremendous upheavals of their time.  Maybe we are at another such point today.

A starter on the social contract, although Locke was my specialist subject:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_contract

If you're part of a group on a new planet, you would make rules and abide by them out of self interest because it's a more efficient way to protect your assets.  But is that a steady state and what happens next?  I see you've mentioned the Roman Empire!

[Alifelessbinary]

3 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Now that is cool.

Do you know what stage of the Roman Empire they were from - apparently people used to find hoards of Roman coins from eras when the Emperors were being bastards and raising taxes.

Velocity of money or what.

They are silver republic denarius (a type of roman coin) from around 100-44 BC before Julius Caesar grabbed control.  Due to the Roman's industriousness hoards of coins are actually fairly common, hence they are a lot more accessible than you would think.  

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

This is the fundamental problem I'm having at the moment. For the last 10 years I have managed my own finances, after sacking my FM who was effectively placing me in expensive tracker funds (1.5% costs!) and charging me 1% for the privileged. Overall I have pretty much followed a passive approach, as proposed in 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street and on Monevator ect...Trackers have been very kind to me in the recent bull market, but as has been mentioned previously they  are somewhat untested in a major bear market, especially as the quantum of capital has grown considerably since 2008.

In my quest for diversification I still hold about 60% of my portfolio in trackers, but now actively manage the remaining shares. Like many on this thread I've increased my gold exposure and I'm pleased to see that GDX is an option again. I currently site about 10% in PMs, although this may change as I continue to research this area.

Of all the major markets to use a tracker I actually  quite like the FTSE, as it seems well placed to deal with a deflationary crash and inflation due to large  oil, mining and infrastructure companies dominating its make up. These companies all derive a large chunk of their income globally which could prove extremely useful if sterling gets smashed.

 

 

I agree on that.The FTSE is probably the best market if your going to use a tracker for the reasons you mention.In fact for people who really cant be bothered 20% treasuries,60% FTSE tracker and 20% PM miners wouldnt be such a poor idea.

What really does amaze me is reading the media and share tipping journals etc who have no understanding at all,im talking zero of the fact everything they see and experience is because we have been in a dis-inflation cycle since 1982.They think heavy investment in capital assets is a bad thing,companies with less assets,but a nice idea a good thing.They have zero understanding about inflation and how once it moves up capital assets that saw companies struggle for 20 years suddenly produce massive cash flow.

I must of read 20 times in the last month how the telcos are over-valued etc.They are looking the wrong way as usual at key inflection points.Vod turn over about £42 billion.10% inflation would add around £3 billion to their free cash flow.Their depreciation is pretty much set in stone.

Its like my friend says.He knew about a dozen people who understood an inflation cycle.Nine of them are in the graveyard.The highly leveraged will be in for an education soon they never forget.

[Thorn]

11 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Thanks.  I studied this area way back in my student days but it's recently come to the fore.  So important.  I'm an economist and this sort of stuff gives it meaning.  It's loss is why the current economics "profession" is walking in the wilderness.

If you ever want to go heavy into it then go back to the 1700's and meet John Locke, Jean-Jacques Rousseau and co for the neo-classical thoughts on rights (although you could go back further to Greece).  The fascination is that they were almost forced into thinking about this due to the tremendous upheavals of their time.  Maybe we are at another such point today.

A starter on the social contract, although Locke was my specialist subject:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_contract

If you're part of a group on a new planet, you would make rules and abide by them out of self interest because it's a more efficient way to protect your assets.  But is that a steady state and what happens next?  I see you've mentioned the Roman Empire!

People form gangs and tribes and before you know it there's war...

Was Rousseau the lad who talked about The Perfectability of Man?

Some craic.  When you think of the pure sh*te the media feeds people like Love Island to keep them down. 

[No Duff (troll)]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They have zero understanding about inflation and how once it moves up capital assets that saw companies struggle for 20 years suddenly produce massive cash flow.

That particular thought's at the top of my list to thank you for.  I trained as an accountant back in the day and maybe was in the last year to be taught inflation accounting (not just book keeping).  Things come, things go, and then.....things come back again!  Such is life. 

[Thorn]

11 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

They are silver republic denarius (a type of roman coin) from around 100-44 BC before Julius Caesar grabbed control.  Due to the Roman's industriousness hoards of coins are actually fairly common, hence they are a lot more accessible than you would think.  

Would love to see a pic if you ever manage to post one - sounds amazing.

[Alifelessbinary]

Thorn - if I get the chance I'll fish them out and take a picture.

The ancient Greeks also did a nice line of coins, also, which are worth checking out! The British Museum has an amazing collection, but many are hidden away.

[No Duff (troll)]

4 hours ago, stokiescum said:

is it haveing a bad effect though ? those people with 40k cars on pcp for £300 a month arnt feeling any pain yet.come the crash they will but ive been waiting for it for 6 years.no sighns of it yet nothing......

I think they're feeling pain - that's why they bought them in the first place!

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, No Duff said:

That particular thought's at the top of my list to thank you for.  I trained as an accountant back in the day and maybe was in the last year to be taught inflation accounting (not just book keeping).  Things come, things go, and then.....things come back again!  Such is life. 

It really is incredible how few people understand how inflation (or the lack of it) works with companies.They see high capital asset companies running to stand still and seem to think its the company,sector,poor investment etc.They simply dont understand its the fact we have been in a long dis-inflation.The New Romantics were in the charts when it started.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, satch said:

I will have my 2p worth. Lots of things are I suspect can be classed as hard assets, but first you need a roof for you and your family, so owning a home outright is a hard asset worth in rent terms between 30 and 50% of a decent salary or today maybe 70% for some people in London which will be irresepective of whether that decent wage halves or doubles in either deflation or hyper-inflation.

100%.Its the key to everything for me.Rent and mortgage free and learn half decent DIY skills.You can then live for a very low amount and use the tax system to perfection.

[King Penda]

40 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

They are silver republic denarius (a type of roman coin) from around 100-44 BC before Julius Caesar grabbed control.  Due to the Roman's industriousness hoards of coins are actually fairly common, hence they are a lot more accessible than you would think.  

and the silver content slowly fell in the denarius,they basicly debased there currency over a few hundred years.ive even seen silver washed ones no idea if they were contempery counterfits or not.ive found maybe 30 denari over 10 years detecting.roman bronzes are indeed very common finds.

[No Duff (troll)]

59 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Velocity of money or what.

......Or nothing!  V is key.  It's huge.  Again, something everyone's forgotten about but it will have it's day.  With the prevailing amount of leverage and general financial b'tardisation, it will be epic.  And what causes changes in V?  Sentiment!  Not finance, sentiment!  It's how you put the socio in socio-economics.  Unlike the other parts of the general equation, it's something the technocrats cannot ultimately control (even in a cashless society).  You have the group, then you have the rabble, and then you have V.  Watch V, understand what underpins V, and identify the disruptors that will give V life, if you wish to get ahead of the game.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

100%.Its the key to everything for me.Rent and mortgage free and learn half decent DIY skills.You can then live for a very low amount and use the tax system to perfection.

I have recently moved to an offset mortgage @ 100%. Can use the offset savings to pay the monthly or just pay it off. My thinking is that it will be a good hedge against rising interest rates, while i can still get the money if an opportunity arises.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Just tried to at HL to buy: VanEck Vectors ETF Gold Miners UCITS (GDX)

RESULT...

Online dealing not available

This stock is currently unavailable to buy. 

New regulations require the issuers of investments to provide us with certain information about costs and charges. The issuer of this stock has not provided this information so we cannot currently make it available for further investment. 

If you already hold this investment, you can continue to hold it, and sell it at any time, but you cannot buy any more at the moment. We are working with investment groups to help them provide the information we need and so we may be able to make this investment available again for purchase in future. 

Please choose one of the options below to continue.

WHAT the f**k ! then why the hell do HL quote it in their platform?

[Stuffed]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Just tried to at HL to buy: VanEck Vectors ETF Gold Miners UCITS (GDX)

RESULT...

Online dealing not available

Try the iShares Gold Producers ETF (SPGP)... the chart performance is the same.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 minute ago, Stuffed said:

Try the iShares Gold Producers ETF (SPGP)... the chart performance is the same.

are you sure - cos nothing showing when i search...

[No Duff (troll)]

37 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

100%.Its the key to everything for me.Rent and mortgage free and learn half decent DIY skills.You can then live for a very low amount and use the tax system to perfection.

Absolutely, deal with such things first above all else.  Either buy, or have the secure resources to rent. 

However, to me a residential house is a chattel rather than an asset, hard or not.  A chattel is like a car, a sofa, etc.  You need it to exist, although arguably just to exist comfortably.  A sliding scale from air and water (not chattels themselves because you do not own them) to sofa!  You cannot just sell it unencumbered of the implications of that sale.  Maybe you could call it a "tied asset".  Maybe not, as you are not totally free to sell it (you need a place to live).  You can substitute it (rent) but you cannot dispose of it unencumbered.  A bar of gold is an asset if it is not mortgaged (encumbered).  It may not have value or may have difficulty in it's valuation, but that's solely a question of valuation and not of being.  

A slight semantic but important because your financial wealth, even independence, is the value of your assets and such perceptions drive behaviour.  This misunderstanding, arguably manipulative brainwashing, has spawn the current fake economy in which we live.  Indeed, it's essential for the current economy to continue to exist.  But such shams do not last just as free bread and circuses did not last.  If we ring fence chattels as necessary and of value (indeed some of paramount value), we are left with what is an asset in the current world, and more importantly, what is a hard asset.  Sure, a hard asset must be a store of value, but what is value?  And must it have more, like utility, in the same way the investment in a machine has utility.  I can't answer this but I feel this is the path necessary to meet what lies at the end of all this and again, I'm drawn back to the neo-classical thinkers such as Adam Smith who also grappled with such thoughts at a tumultuous period, the same as what is emerging now.  We need a new Adam Smith for our age.  

[A_P]

5 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Just tried to at HL to buy: VanEck Vectors ETF Gold Miners UCITS (GDX)

RESULT...

Online dealing not available

This stock is currently unavailable to buy. 

New regulations require the issuers of investments to provide us with certain information about costs and charges. The issuer of this stock has not provided this information so we cannot currently make it available for further investment. 

If you already hold this investment, you can continue to hold it, and sell it at any time, but you cannot buy any more at the moment. We are working with investment groups to help them provide the information we need and so we may be able to make this investment available again for purchase in future. 

Please choose one of the options below to continue.

WHAT the f**k ! then why the hell do HL quote it in their platform?

I had the same with VanEck Vectors™ Gold Miners ETF GBP (LSE:GDGB) on ii.co.uk. I think I'm going to go a different route now for miners but need to get some tax advice

[afly]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

are you sure - cos nothing showing when i search...

this one? http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-v-plc-s-and-p-com-prd-gold-usd-acc-gbp

[No Duff (troll)]

24 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

and the silver content slowly fell in the denarius,they basicly debased there currency over a few hundred years.ive even seen silver washed ones no idea if they were contempery counterfits or not.ive found maybe 30 denari over 10 years detecting.roman bronzes are indeed very common finds.

History never repeats, just rhymes.  Or do we currently have a repeating rhyme?    

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Just now, afly said:

this one? http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-v-plc-s-and-p-com-prd-gold-usd-acc-gbp

i just found the above by googling NOT in HL serach box...

[No Duff (troll)]

1 hour ago, Thorn said:

John Kay - The Long and the Short of It - says modern day business is less about the making of stuff and more and more also about the intangibles like about solid rules making sure expectations met, regulations, relationships that mean a business has repeat business from it's loyal tribe who trust them.

Hey, bingo, think you might be defining attributes of hard assets.  You would surely have an asset if you had built a similar eco-system around you.  Nothing wrong with a bit a gold as well though!  John Kay you say, thanks!  

PS:  Which John Kay please - quite a few out there!