Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Banned said:

At the moment the problem with the economy is those with assets are getting a free handout at the expense of manual labour in its varying forms. If Steptoe were to resolve this issue it will help fix the economy.

It will be his spending that may bring down the currency imho. But this thread is predicting this to happen no mayter who is in power.

As you say,debt deflation will occur whoever is in power.Steptoe will merely speed the decline of the currency alongside the delvearaging

4 hours ago, Festival said:

The market always wins out in the end SP we just haven’t got there yet - the foreigners do hold uk assets and investments in businesses but I wonder with recent announcements on reviews of foreign stakes in businesses whether that will gradually roll back.

Will look at stocks in those sectors plenty of value there to be going at i think

Sterling is a safe haven until it isn't.Japan had the benefit of Mrs Watanabe buying JGB's at any price.UK govt won't have that luxury.

When and if sterling sells off ,it could get brutal very quickly.The 'if' is a big 'if'.

[sancho panza]

37 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/sibanye-enters-into-500m-streaming-deal-with-wheaton-international-2018-07-16/rep_id:3650
 

Palladium is 57% of the stream value.  Sibanye keeps over 95% of this.  The mines have been working since '86 and '02 - right through a period where palladium was as low as $200 at times, and maybe averaged $600 (roughly, by my eye, from a price chart).  So, with today's price at $900 - the deal indicates Wheaton think there's enough profit in the palladium to keep Sibanye on the pick and shovel - or they bet there soon will be.

Not a bad deal I suspect.Sib taking the view that they'll focus on the profit in palladium.Stillwater is one of the few primary producing palladium mines in the world hattip @DurhamBorn so you can see the sense for them and they still have a huge chunk of gold production elsewhere.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I had to report on yellow sticker trip today YRS.Tesco was superb.Bananas 12p a pack,several bought and banana loafs will use some tomorrow home made.16 packs of sausage for BBQs etc (extra long ones),£4 down to £1,got 3 packs of those,broke them down into 4s,25p a meal.Cod loins x 2 £5 down to £1.25,6 packs of those.Fantastic.Vine tomatoes 9p,bag of mixed lettuce 9p,blueberries 9p a pack,2 packs,strawberries 25p,Extra special cottage pies £5 for £1.25,two of those,Extra special lasagne £5 for £1.25,4 chicken breasts £4 down to £1,Rhubarb pie £1.40 for 29p two of them,and even fresh custard £1.29 for 27p x 2 to go with them,froze those.Free range chicken £12.40 for £2.20,apples £1.60 for 40p,organic oranges £1.75 for 40p,pears £1.50 for 33p.

I even managed to get 3 pizzas £4 each for £1 for a woman who is in there regular but doesnt like to shove everyone out the way.,she was so pleased im sure i caught that look in her eye,but i banished such thoughts quickly,dont want to risk my FIRE and nicely structured life,it has tended to be my one weakness in the past 

 

VERY NICE!

 

I just loogeg into my HL ac, as deposited the last moolah for this ISA year, GORDON BENNETT ...my Eldorado Gold is UP 8% ! 

 

However my Sibanye Gold  is DOWN 25% ha-ha! Seriously thinking of adding more Sibanye at this price!?

DB, tricky question for ya...do you think Sibanye could ever go bust, looking at the Sibanye price chart, thats what it looks like to me...however i've also seen when charts like this look SO HOPELESS ...and before ya know it the frigging dead-beat stock zooms to the moon!

 

STILL my portfolio is only down 7%...AND not to worry cos...

 

I popped into Tescos Monday @7:19pm and they were just putting out the veg, picked up 2 bags of 2.KG maris piper potatoes, ONLY 5p EACH!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

4 hours ago, leonardratso said:

drax cack today, might top up tomorrow if they stay down.

still expect  to make annual target.

@leonardratso  I've been watching DRAX, and really like this company, its had some run up from 2.20 in Jan to 3.58, chart has done a double top @3.58 ...this tells me lower prices coming (down 5% today) though i don't own any yet, just been waiting for a CRASH IN THE MARKET ...or drax to just drift down, at the end of the day i pretty sure that drax is NEVER going bust, only a few short years ago it was 8 quid!

Anyway DYOR & all that GOOD-LUCK

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, kibuc said:

@DurhamBorn Have you heard the recent news about Sibanye selling all their future US gold production in a streaming deal with Wheaton?

https://www.ft.com/content/f368718c-88f1-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340

I'm trying to make some sense of it.

Sibanye got $500m cash, significantly reducing it's debt.

Wheaton got rights to all future gold production (and some palladium production) from Sibanye's US mines for the lifetime of those mine. They'll pay 18% spot price until the original $500m is met in delivered metal value, then 22%.

However, reportedly there's no minimum delivery requirement.

My question is: why should Sibanye bother with mining anything at all in US going forward if there's no legal requirement to do so? They have banked the money already, and every ounce they dig out will be heavily loss-making.

And even if there's some legal framework that would force Sibanye to keep up production, they could start easing it out gradually, not spend a single cent more on exploration or even maintenance, basically deprive the loss-making side of their business of any future investments.

I just cannot see how that deal works for Wheaton.

Mainly because they mine very little gold from the US mines its mainly palladium and some platinum so gold is simply a small by product at Stillwater.They are simply giving Wheaton that gold.Its probably a credit on the PM production of about $30 an oz.Wheaton also get 1% of PMs mined for the life of the mine.Seems to me thats where they make their money.The gold pays back the $500 million over a long period,then they click around £10 million a year free for the life of mine.I mentioned a good while ago Sibanye would do a streaming deal and i think its a good move.It keeps the debt down while they wait for a higher rand gold price.

[leonardratso]

i just like drax's name. Its a bond villain or a vampire of that theres no doubt.

That aside, it owns a big wood chipper in USA as well doesnt it?, im sure its probably a dirty old carbon trader, but so is my car and that works just fine.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Not a bad deal I suspect.Sib taking the view that they'll focus on the profit in palladium.Stillwater is one of the few primary producing palladium mines in the world hattip @DurhamBorn so you can see the sense for them and they still have a huge chunk of gold production elsewhere.

 

Good deal for both yes.The gold is only a very small amount from those mines ,i think about $30 credit per PM oz.Those mines have new projects producing extra PMs going forward at the lowest costs in the world.Given i think we are about to enter a palladium and platinum bull market Sibanye are happy to wait for that and the $500 million means the balance sheet isnt a problem.They would of de-leveraged with profits if the rand gold price had stayed above 560kg,but at 520kg the South African gold mines are only slightly profitable.This streaming deal is much better for shareholders as it means once PMs take off they arent diluted.Sibanye are really saying we think a PM bull is ahead and we dont want to pay off debt with equity,we will pay it off with cashflow.

 

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i just like drax's name. Its a bond villain or a vampire of that theres no doubt.

That aside, it owns a big wood chipper in USA as well doesnt it?, im sure its probably a dirty old carbon trader, but so is my car and that works just fine.

I sold my Drax at a bit lower than where they are now,they ran up 50% in a few months,iv been buying the transports and Vodafone with the money.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

VERY NICE!

 

I just loogeg into my HL ac, as deposited the last moolah for this ISA year, GORDON BENNETT ...my Eldorado Gold is UP 8% ! 

 

However my Sibanye Gold  is DOWN 25% ha-ha! Seriously thinking of adding more Sibanye at this price!?

DB, tricky question for ya...do you think Sibanye could ever go bust, looking at the Sibanye price chart, thats what it looks like to me...however i've also seen when charts like this look SO HOPELESS ...and before ya know it the frigging dead-beat stock zooms to the moon!

 

STILL my portfolio is only down 7%...AND not to worry cos...

 

I popped into Tescos Monday @7:19pm and they were just putting out the veg, picked up 2 bags of 2.KG maris piper potatoes, ONLY 5p EACH!

Yes it could easily go bust,as can any gold miner with debt and high costs.Thats why you want a good spread.Im very pleased with how my PM shares are doing.Most are going up while GDX has gone down.If gold turns i think they will move up very fast.If gold turns of course.Im only 12% down on Eldorado now,im tempted to sell those once/if im 0.1% up 

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes it could easily go bust,as can any gold miner with debt and high costs.Thats why you want a good spread.Im very pleased with how my PM shares are doing.Most are going up while GDX has gone down.If gold turns i think they will move up very fast.If gold turns of course.Im only 12% down on Eldorado now,im tempted to sell those once/if im 0.1% up 

i just had a look at my EGO, its actually 3.15% up, im amazed since all the others are shite.

I know that can turn on a dime though, so ill just ignore it for now.

[sancho panza]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes it could easily go bust,as can any gold miner with debt and high costs.Thats why you want a good spread.Im very pleased with how my PM shares are doing.Most are going up while GDX has gone down.If gold turns i think they will move up very fast.If gold turns of course.Im only 12% down on Eldorado now,im tempted to sell those once/if im 0.1% up 

We're down across our Goldies except for Barrick,Goldcorp and Goldfields ...I think(off the top of my frazzled brain).C'est la vie.

If you're worried by a 20-50% drop in the stock price then you probably shouldn't be trading PM miners.I still remember trading acquaintances laughing at me selling my techies and buying Halifax,BHP,BLT and other blue chips during the tech bubble.Obviously Halifax no longer a blue chip.

An old frined had a great saying,opportunity comes at you like a pinhead but passes you like a bus.

I look at my charts and think we were precepitous buying goldies in 2017.However, I buy them to hedge CB worries.Still a chunk left to average in with and I am tempted but waiting for more because that's how we like to roll.

[ashestoashes]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@leonardratso  I've been watching DRAX, and really like this company, its had some run up from 2.20 in Jan to 3.58, chart has done a double top @3.58 ...this tells me lower prices coming (down 5% today) though i don't own any yet, just been waiting for a CRASH IN THE MARKET ...or drax to just drift down, at the end of the day i pretty sure that drax is NEVER going bust, only a few short years ago it was 8 quid!

Anyway DYOR & all that GOOD-LUCK

 

 

thought drax has an issue with biomass burning going out of favour with the government so they have to diversify away and replace those earnings with something else

[macca]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

DurahamBorn I have lots of Siemens shares, I get 1 free for every 3 I buy so its a good way to invest.. They are into wind farms, water turbine, trains, hospital equipment, building automation, make lots of the brains for cars, coms equipment,,,

What is your opinion of them as a reflationary stock considering they cover allot of the sectors you describe?

[sancho panza]

.

[Majorpain]

In case anyone missed it, China is having a very hard time of it at the moment.  The PBC has just lowered interest rates and is embarking on another round of QE.  The Yuan is feeling the burn.

[Bear Hug]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

We're down across our Goldies except for Barrick,Goldcorp and Goldfields ...I think(off the top of my frazzled brain).C'est la vie.

If you're worried by a 20-50% drop in the stock price then you probably shouldn't be trading PM miners.I still remember trading acquaintances laughing at me selling my techies and buying Halifax,BHP,BLT and other blue chips during the tech bubble.Obviously Halifax no longer a blue chip.

An old frined had a great saying,opportunity comes at you like a pinhead but passes you like a bus.

I look at my charts and think we were precepitous buying goldies in 2017.However, I buy them to hedge CB worries.Still a chunk left to average in with and I am tempted but waiting for more because that's how we like to roll.

My biggest downers are Tahoe and Yamana, best performing: Eldorado and Harmony.  Sibanye is down but not by much.  

Tempted to add a bit more but also worried might miss a better buying opportunity in the future. 

As I have been following this and ToS threads, any of my mining losses are more than offset by BT gains.

Obviously, enjoying the upside so far and the fact that I can do (share) shopping without cluttering my house with junk!

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Bear Hug said:

My biggest downers are Tahoe and Yamana, best performing: Eldorado and Harmony.  Sibanye is down but not by much.  

Tempted to add a bit more but also worried might miss a better buying opportunity in the future. 

As I have been following this and ToS threads, any of my mining losses are more than offset by BT gains.

Obviously, enjoying the upside so far and the fact that I can do (share) shopping without cluttering my house with junk!

It's funny,I just went and checked (I prefer not to watch my long term holdings closely as I try to focus my energies on shorter term positions)

Currently up-Yamana,Gold Fields,

Down-Barrick,Goldcorp,Eldorado,New Gold (been hammered lately),Anglogold,Novagold.ElD and NG have been mullered.The rest are in or around break even(heavily weighted to barrick and GG).

Having said that I'm excited by the current prices of Kinross/SIbnaye/Amplats/Impala/Hecla/Tahoe/Harmony/First Majestic/McEwen etc etc.Saved a fortune not buying them last year.

My shorts at the minute are doing way better

 

Edit to add-we haven't had a discussion in a while about hedged versus unhedged..HUI doesn't get many mentions in despatches

https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs-components

[DurhamBorn]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

We're down across our Goldies except for Barrick,Goldcorp and Goldfields ...I think(off the top of my frazzled brain).C'est la vie.

If you're worried by a 20-50% drop in the stock price then you probably shouldn't be trading PM miners.I still remember trading acquaintances laughing at me selling my techies and buying Halifax,BHP,BLT and other blue chips during the tech bubble.Obviously Halifax no longer a blue chip.

An old frined had a great saying,opportunity comes at you like a pinhead but passes you like a bus.

I look at my charts and think we were precepitous buying goldies in 2017.However, I buy them to hedge CB worries.Still a chunk left to average in with and I am tempted but waiting for more because that's how we like to roll.

Couldnt agree more,im very happy with my entry prices on my PM portfolio and fully expect to make a lot of money on it,i think its down about 6%.Its bought and sat there now and iv been spending most of my time slowly working on my main portfolio.The same happened to me during the tech bubble,its actually how i made most of my capital.The bargains in many blue chips and mid line stocks were incredible.Some i bought then ended up on purchase price paying 40% a year dividends.I bought Imperial for less than a second hand car (i actually owned some since it came out of Hanson Trust),when i sold it it would of bought a house when sold at £38) and thats without all the dividends.I actually pegged the bottom again on Imperial at £23 going back in (only 20% of what i had before),but iv sold some of those this last week and bought more Vod.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

11 hours ago, macca said:

DurahamBorn I have lots of Siemens shares, I get 1 free for every 3 I buy so its a good way to invest.. They are into wind farms, water turbine, trains, hospital equipment, building automation, make lots of the brains for cars, coms equipment,,,

What is your opinion of them as a reflationary stock considering they cover allot of the sectors you describe?

I would think they will do very well.They wont make you rich of course due to their size,but likely they will do very well and be a nice returning investment.

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

My biggest downers are Tahoe and Yamana, best performing: Eldorado and Harmony.  Sibanye is down but not by much.  

Tempted to add a bit more but also worried might miss a better buying opportunity in the future. 

As I have been following this and ToS threads, any of my mining losses are more than offset by BT gains.

Obviously, enjoying the upside so far and the fact that I can do (share) shopping without cluttering my house with junk!

Im up on Yamana ,but only slightly,and they look good from a technical side.Happy to hold them.Harmony had very good production numbers this week.Its tough for them with the rand gold price where it is as they margins are only around 8%,but they have 80 million oz of resources and a market cap of $800million.If gold runs (and the rand doesnt strengthen too much) they should do very well.Risky of course.The chief exec bought half a million of shares a few weeks ago.He is ex Goldfields and should be able to sort Eldorado out.They wont have enough cash to open their Greek mines,but a streaming deal is likely,perhaps on the silver.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

14 hours ago, leonardratso said:

i just like drax's name. Its a bond villain or a vampire of that theres no doubt.

That aside, it owns a big wood chipper in USA as well doesnt it?, im sure its probably a dirty old carbon trader, but so is my car and that works just fine.

...maybe it they changed their name to Pussy Galore...

The stock would INSTANTLY Rocket ...with MASSES of punters piling in!

[leonardratso]

14 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...maybe it they changed their name to Pussy Galore...

The stock would INSTANTLY Rocket ...with MASSES of punters piling in!

you have to say it like sean connery;

'Ahhh Poooshaay!'

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

18 hours ago, Majorpain said:

In case anyone missed it, China is having a very hard time of it at the moment.  The PBC has just lowered interest rates and is embarking on another round of QE.  The Yuan is feeling the burn.

I think this is very important.Lots going on between the Yuan and the Dollar.China is struggling with higher costs and it has lost a lot of its competitive edge.

[azzuri82]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think this is very important.Lots going on between the Yuan and the Dollar.China is struggling with higher costs and it has lost a lot of its competitive edge.

I agree. I think that 'the thing' that potentially begins the unwind of this global debt bubble starts in China. There's too much oversupply in everything over there, massive trade imbalances due to central bank keeping the yuan artificially low, massive IP theft from Europe and North America. Trump's trade war is going to destroy China, and there's nothing they can do about it.

For China anyway, what's coming is going to be exactly like 1929.

[sancho panza]

Vodafone @ 175.........

Despite the negative press,looking longer term,5G could wipe out domestic landlines.Maybe one of the techies herein could advise.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/vodafone-apos-vittorio-colao-bows-123216292.html

Tough competition in Spain, Italy and India and foreign exchange swings marred Vittorio Colao’s final quarterly update as chief executive of Vodafone.

The world’s second-largest mobile phone operator saw a 4.9pc dip in revenues to €10.9bn (£9.7bn) in the three months to June, partly because of a switch to a new accounting standard, IFRS 15, which forced it to change the way it books income from phone contracts.

Organic service revenue, excluding that and other one-offs, M&A and currency swings, was up 0.3pc, though that was a slowdown from 1.4pc in the previous quarter.  

Mr Colao, who will hand over to chief financial officer Nick Read in October, said competition in Italy had “intensified” thanks to the low prices offered by French competitor Iliad, which entered the market in May.   

“Iliad has launched very low price offers which are getting some traction in the market,” he said. “We believe these are levels where it’s not easy to make money in the long term.”

Service revenues also fell in Spain, where Vodafone cut prices to remain competitive, and India, where it is in the process of merging with rival Idea Cellular.

But Germany was strong, with 2.4pc growth in service revenue bolstered by an extra 46,000 broadband customers.  

Mr Colao said the group’s overall performance gave him the confidence that it would meet its expectations of 1pc to 5pc growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the full year.

The performance was not a big surprise to investors and analysts after Vodafone warned of a weak first quarter earlier in the year. Shares in the company were down 1.5pc to 175p in noon trade.

George Salmon, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said Vodafone was struggling to differentiate itself amid a tough price war in the telecoms industry but that there were some “silver linings” in the results.

He added: “Emerging market growth is strong, driven by Egypt, Turkey and South Africa, while more European customers are electing to take on multiple services from the group.

“Bundling TV, phone and broadband together is Vodafone’s solution to the age-old problem of customer retention, so investors will be keeping a keen eye on progress in from here on.”'

 

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/spain-awards-5g-frequencies-telefonica-170110107.html

MADRID (Reuters) - Spain on Wednesday awarded 5G frequencies to Telefonica, Vodafone and Orange at an auction, the economy ministry said in a statement.

Telefonica invested 107 million euros to get 50 MHZ in spectrum, Orange paid 132 million euros for 60 MHZ and Vodafone paid 198 million euros for 90 MHZ.

5G is more than 20 times faster than 4G and it is expected to boost the "internet of things", which describes a wide-range of objects that are connected to the internet and can collect and exchange data to perform functions such as operating autonomous vehicles, controlling the heating at home, managing maintenance in factories or monitoring energy consumption.