Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[macca]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Your post seems to be 18:58 Saturday. I've never used Royal Mint so don't know if that spread is their norm but on other places the spread is wider at the weekend when there is less activity. See if it improves day time  midweek?

Royal mint is a ltd company owned by the government.. It can however like all private companies go bust one would assume..

I also think that the gold it holds is owned by the government and as a ltd company they merely store it on their behalf..

I am just guessing on these assumptions as I have had dealings with them in the past.. I know during the Euro printing they made good profits, but with the end of all the different currency denominations they no longer have reoccurring business.. I believe they used to have contracts with many countries, producing many different currencies, including updated coins and notes as they changed over the years.. This stopped with the introduction of the euro making repeat business a bit on the short side.

[Bricks & Mortar]

10 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Your post seems to be 18:58 Saturday. I've never used Royal Mint so don't know if that spread is their norm but on other places the spread is wider at the weekend when there is less activity. See if it improves day time  midweek?

Yes, that's when it was, and I bought shortly afterward.  Advertised spread was £11.50/£12.25,  (I paid £12.30 - as in £12.25 + fee of 0.33%.)
So, Monday morning, approx 09:30, I see the advertised spread has narrowed to £11.75/£12.00.

It does seem like there's a premium on weekend trading.  I don't get out of bed myself on weekends without something in it for me.

[ashestoashes]

5 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Yes, that's when it was, and I bought shortly afterward.  Advertised spread was £11.50/£12.25,  (I paid £12.30 - as in £12.25 + fee of 0.33%.)
So, Monday morning, approx 09:30, I see the advertised spread has narrowed to £11.75/£12.00.

It does seem like there's a premium on weekend trading.  I don't get out of bed myself on weekends without something in it for me.

that'll be the bed spread then

[DurhamBorn]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker Lidl had added a new way of doing reductions.The normal 30% off still stands,but they used to throw out anything that didnt sell at night that was on date the next day.Now they are selling that instead of chucking it out.So the stuff on date is now priced at a straight 70p chiller food,20p bread etc.I went in at 9.30am and i got a free range chicken 70p,5 packs of chicken breast in garlic and herb marinade 70p each,turkey steaks 70p,they even had a 6 bag of salmon fillets 70p,but i dont like salmon so left those,but incredible price for someone there.The girl hadnt done it right though as she had actually marked stuff on date tomorrow,where it should only by stuff on date today so it may be that there isnt usually much,or even anything,but its a great way of getting really cheap quality stuff.There was also some cooked meats etc at 70p,but they were usually only £1.60 where as the chicken has been £6.It looked like it had just been done so they probably do it soon after they open.Il try later in the week at 9am and see if its done then and home the time down to a small window.Handy having it only 100 yards away and its always really quiet until about 10.30 as the tax credit locals are never up and dressed before then 

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Yes, that's when it was, and I bought shortly afterward.  Advertised spread was £11.50/£12.25,  (I paid £12.30 - as in £12.25 + fee of 0.33%.)
So, Monday morning, approx 09:30, I see the advertised spread has narrowed to £11.75/£12.00.

It does seem like there's a premium on weekend trading.  I don't get out of bed myself on weekends without something in it for me.

Yes during the week the spread will be much tighter,worth keeping an eye on to see if it gets a bit tighter or not,but i could live with it where it is for silver.

Companies are slowly starting to position for the reflation ahead.

https://theenergyst.com/centrica-buys-israeli-smart-ev-charging-firm-eyes-vehicle-grid-services/

They already own the best company in the space that uses block chain to work out the units of energy from a producer (say a wind turbine,a factory roof solar) and to charge the end users.This new tech would link to that and ensure charging points can be anywhere and everywhere.Distributed energy will be a huge driver of the reflation cycle.While the market wets itself over the government forcing a limit on fixed tariffs they miss the fact that in 5 to 10 years those sort of tariffs will be left to the bottom feeders because energy will be priced by the second.Its the same reason SSE are floating off the consumer arm and will no doubt increase investment into hydro pump storage.Those dams will be filled during the night in winter when the winds blowing and the turbines are chucking power out and during the day in summer when solar is doing the same.

One of the most hated sectors right now as the market looks backwards that i am pretty confident will be one of,if not the investor darling in 5 to 10 years.

Big oil is going to see huge amounts of its turnover change sector (though should still stand still for 15 years during the transition due to rising prices).The question is will they move to buy out the route to market while they have the massive free cash flow?

[Lavalas]

Anyone any experience of HL not listing a share you’d like to buy? Do they add stuff on request/over the phone or is it tough? Looking at a few small cap bits and bobs but they’re all available on ii (however I don’t have an account).

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, macca said:

Royal mint is a ltd company owned by the government.. It can however like all private companies go bust one would assume..

I also think that the gold it holds is owned by the government and as a ltd company they merely store it on their behalf..

I am just guessing on these assumptions as I have had dealings with them in the past.. I know during the Euro printing they made good profits, but with the end of all the different currency denominations they no longer have reoccurring business.. I believe they used to have contracts with many countries, producing many different currencies, including updated coins and notes as they changed over the years.. This stopped with the introduction of the euro making repeat business a bit on the short side.

I wasn't advising using RM or passing any comment about their viability. B&M was using them anyway, I was merely suggesting why the spread might be wider at the weekend.

[leonardratso]

49 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I wasn't advising using RM or passing any comment about their viability. B&M was using them anyway, I was merely suggesting why the spread might be wider at the weekend.

yar, i do like the idea of the signature gold/PM, means i dont have to store it securely, but on low volumes it wasnt economically viable was what i was getting at, much the same as equity really, what with dealing costs and spreads, your low volumes would have to multi-bag just to make a bit of profit over the cost price and costs associated.

[Bricks & Mortar]

52 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yar, i do like the idea of the signature gold/PM, means i dont have to store it securely, but on low volumes it wasnt economically viable was what i was getting at, much the same as equity really, what with dealing costs and spreads, your low volumes would have to multi-bag just to make a bit of profit over the cost price and costs associated.

That's not how I'm seeing it.  I'm new to this, so may have it wrong... and would be good to be put right so...

My take is 25p weekday spread at rate around 1175p = 2%.  0.33% buy cost.  1% sell cost.  and was it 0.5%/year storage cost?  So, costs less than 5%, if I hold a few years.

I'm comparing to physical coins or bullion- where the dealers also have a spread, and I'd either have to travel to the retailer, or pay insured postage - at both ends.

To my thinking,  small quantities from Royal Mint carry significantly lower cost than physical, or equity.

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

That's not how I'm seeing it.  I'm new to this, so may have it wrong... and would be good to be put right so...

My take is 25p weekday spread at rate around 1175p = 2%.  0.33% buy cost.  1% sell cost.  and was it 0.5%/year storage cost?  So, costs less than 5%, if I hold a few years.

I'm comparing to physical coins or bullion- where the dealers also have a spread, and I'd either have to travel to the retailer, or pay insured postage - at both ends.

To my thinking,  small quantities from Royal Mint carry significantly lower cost than physical, or equity.

Ok then. To me i can do better elsewhere with the smallish amounts im playing with. But to each their own etc.

[MrXxx]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

Ok then. To me i can do better elsewhere with the smallish amounts im playing with. But to each their own etc.

My understanding of gold was that it isn't for gains anyway, just capital preservation and diversity in a portfolio?!

[A_P]

For small amounts are you not better off with using regular investing into a gold ETC? Circa £1 trading costs plus fees of 0.25-0.5%?

[Bear Hug]

On 15/07/2018 at 13:02, DurhamBorn said:

I think platinum is about to enter a multi year bull market,but i havent got much exposure to it.The reason for that is i hold Harmony Gold and some Anglogold and as i didnt want anymore exposure to SA iv taken only a small position in Sibanye.I wouldnt buy Lonmin.If Sibanye pulled out of the deal for any reason Lonmin would go under i think.

I think Sibanye is the way to play platinum within a PM portfolio,but it does have a lot of risk.The main one being the debt levels.If the rand price of gold goes down (or even stays where it is) they are going to have to do a streaming deal or something.If the Rand price of gold got back over 580k a kg Sibanye would be good to go.

 

On 15/07/2018 at 12:31, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

I'm on my phone so can't research well, but it appears to say you'd receive 0.967 Sibanye shares for every Lonmin one, and there looks to be a significant price differential. If you want more Sibanye then could be worthwhile?

Now it all makes sense.  I thought it's still worth a gamble to get Lonmin to potentially to convert to Sibanye, but it turns out that NYSE listing of Sibanye gold (currently $2.63) represents 4 Sibanye  shares, or $0.66 per share. Therefore, there is not that much of a gap between getting Lonmin (GBX 41.70) to convert to Sibanye or just buying Sibanye directly .

1 Lonmin share is £0.42 ~ $0.54 and could convert to 0.967 Sibanye.  So the price of Sibanye implied by Lonmin = 0.54 / 0.967 = $0.56 vs $0.66 of buying Sibanye directly.  Not enough of a gap to risk it given Lonmin's potential to go under.

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

 

Now it all makes sense.  I thought it's still worth a gamble to get Lonmin to potentially to convert to Sibanye, but it turns out that NYSE listing of Sibanye gold (currently $2.63) represents 4 Sibanye  shares, or $0.66 per share. Therefore, there is not that much of a gap between getting Lonmin (GBX 41.70) to convert to Sibanye or just buying Sibanye directly .

1 Lonmin share is £0.42 ~ $0.54 and could convert to 0.967 Sibanye.  So the price of Sibanye implied by Lonmin = 0.54 / 0.967 = $0.56 vs $0.66 of buying Sibanye directly.  Not enough of a gap to risk it given Lonmin's potential to go under.

ADR 4 says American depository receipts x 4 when  you try to buy NYSE:SBGL.

SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS

[Bear Hug]

7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ADR 4 says American deposit receipts x 4 when  you try to buy NYSE:SBGL.

I think that's what I was trying to say: 1 SBGL ADR = 4 Sibanye shares

[leonardratso]

Just now, Bear Hug said:

I think that's what I was trying to say: 1 SBGL ADR = 4 Sibanye shares

its my only PMM in profit at the moment, so i dont mind the 4x leverage for buying 1 apparent share. The rest are pretty shit, but im not complaining, all my passive crap is still chunking higher and higher, even the current trnd of killing the FANGS doesnt seem to have stopped them, ill keep going until i dont.

[Bear Hug]

12 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

its my only PMM in profit at the moment, so i dont mind the 4x leverage for buying 1 apparent share. The rest are pretty shit, but im not complaining, all my passive crap is still chunking higher and higher, even the current trnd of killing the FANGS doesnt seem to have stopped them, ill keep going until i dont.

Apologies if it's my misunderstanding but I don't think there is any leverage.  Sibanye's main listing is in South Africa JSE:SGL (currently 1 share at 860 ZAR = 8.60 South African Rand = ~ 0.65 USD?).  They are quoted in multiples of 4 on NYSE for ~2.6 USD (=0.65 x 4).

Also, my PM shares value in GBP is not really going anywhere: they are dropping in USD but that's offset by GBP going down at the same time!

 

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Apologies if it's my misunderstanding but I don't think there is any leverage.  Sibanye's main listing is in South Africa JSE:SGL (currently 1 share at 860 ZAR = 8.60 South African Rand = ~ 0.65 USD?).  They are quoted in multiples of 4 on NYSE for ~2.6 USD (=0.65 x 4).

 

 

yes, sorry, i meant that by buying 1 apparent SBGL share i am in fact buying really 4 sibayne shares, which i dont mind while its in profit because each share is in profit, you are right its not leveraged in that im shelling out exactly what they cost. But pyscologically Im reading my 4 x shares as really 1x. If you see what i mean? Its difficult for me to explain and its really just all in my head, the maths is the same and correct.

[Bear Hug]

14 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yes, sorry, i meant that by buying 1 apparent SBGL share i am in fact buying really 4 sibayne shares, which i dont mind while its in profit because each share is in profit, you are right its not leveraged in that im shelling out exactly what they cost. But pyscologically Im reading my 4 x shares as really 1x. If you see what i mean? Its difficult for me to explain and its really just all in my head, the maths is the same and correct.

I think there is a limit of $1 as a minimum average stock price to be listed on NYSE, hence it's probably best they are listed in groups of 4.

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

I think there is a limit of $1 as a minimum average stock price to be listed on NYSE, hence it's probably best they are listed in groups of 4.

There is thats right.Its nearly always 4 shares,Harmony is the same.I think if your stock is averaged under $1 for 3 months they have to consolidate the shares or be booted off the market,something like that.They then probably go into the pink sheets.Its why i buy any stocks close to that price on the Canadian market instead if i can.

Interesting Trumps new sanctions on Iran ban them getting the dollar,but it also includes "trade in gold and other precious metals" and the Iranian Rial.You have the US government there in affect saying they know gold and silver are the other world currency with the dollar.Unlike the dollar though there is no other counter party to gold and silver.Iran will find a way to trade them and get dollars,or even other currency.Gold can be carried out of the country on the back of a camel and the dollars brought back the same way.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza did you enter a Domino's Pizza short?,hit hard today.I find it amazing anyone buys anything from there,the prices are a joke.Double the price you can get from a pizza shop in town.My youngest daughters friends dont seem to mind paying half their days apprentice wages on one from Domino's though. 

[sancho panza]

36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza did you enter a Domino's Pizza short?,hit hard today.I find it amazing anyone buys anything from there,the prices are a joke.Double the price you can get from a pizza shop in town.My youngest daughters friends dont seem to mind paying half their days apprentice wages on one from Domino's though. 

If you think the UK stock is overvalued then don't look West.The UK stock has had a great run but the exponential blow off has occurred in the US.The UK chart has plenty of bear traps historically.

The longer term roll overs have yet to trigger my interest and I tend to short over more medium term time frames.I'll wait for an entry point on the UK stock as this latest drop may bring them into play in a few weeks/months,but in all honesty,I may leave it alone and focus on the US.There's so much I'm running my slide rule over in the UK,my main focus being the builders,Rightmove,and businesses in structural decline eg ITV/EA's.

On that note,have you recently mentioned Card factory as being well run?I had a butchers at the FTSE 350 general retailers and them and Pets at Home both look exposed.

One Shorting criteria set I run is (I've developed a few for different sectors-I trade the commodities on predominantly chart based criteria)

1) Overvaluation

2) easily replicated/mundane product

3) low barriers of entry

4) unsustainably high margins

5) exposed to changes in disposable income

 

 

[sancho panza]

edit to add:when it comes to shorting DB I'm willing to leave the top and bottom 20% to the gamblers.

[DurhamBorn]

That US chart is incredible,dont look down.

Card Factory is a funny beast.It has superb cash generation and has pretty much cornered the market.The question is will the likes of Home bargains etc expand more into the sector.A 10p increase in the price of a card would also probably see gross profit go up around 20%.Where they do suffer though is they probably rely on footfall.People walking past and picking up a few cards.If high street footfall is falling then they will see like for like falling i expect.Everyone i know goes there for their cards though.

Pets at Home are sinking lots of money into the vets business.Im torn on that two ways.It will be a disaster and model that wont work,or it will provide a cash cow in 5 years where it throws off cash for shareholders dividends.I wouldnt buy it,but interesting to see if they pull it off.

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That US chart is incredible,dont look down.

Card Factory is a funny beast.It has superb cash generation and has pretty much cornered the market.The question is will the likes of Home bargains etc expand more into the sector.A 10p increase in the price of a card would also probably see gross profit go up around 20%.Where they do suffer though is they probably rely on footfall.People walking past and picking up a few cards.If high street footfall is falling then they will see like for like falling i expect.Everyone i know goes there for their cards though.

Pets at Home are sinking lots of money into the vets business.Im torn on that two ways.It will be a disaster and model that wont work,or it will provide a cash cow in 5 years where it throws off cash for shareholders dividends.I wouldnt buy it,but interesting to see if they pull it off.

I love this chart too.

The more a resistance gets tested the more likely it is to fail etc.

Footfall is the key.I saw Next High St operations down 5.9% like for like the other day.If they're doing badly,then heaven help the rest.

I only mentioned those two,as they're charts rolled over a year ago.Both have key niches though.There are easier targets.

??????

Used to be cheap.Last time I took Junior Panza there it wasn't.