The dud Kangaroo bounce thread

[TheCountOfNowhere]

17 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Up of course....house prices only ever go up.

Joking aside, I know a man from Sydney, old school friend, who is into property...let me ask

Report from Sydney....

1. Kids are back to school]

2. The unemployed are delighted with the virus as they've been given more money

3. My mate was furloughed for 6 months, is worried what happens when that ends

4. Regarding the property market...."doom and gloom". He has no doubt prices are going to full due to a glut of supply, no buyers and people having to sell.

5. His company has 1 property for sale now...No interest

6. Says they are having problems with China flexing their muscles with tariffs

7. The rich will be MUCH richer after this.

 

Same Same.

 

[Sugarlips]

Property prices predicted to fall...Government to the rescue, here have 50 grand each:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/government-set-to-unveil-new-homebuyer-grants-across-the-board-to-prop-up-flailing-construction-sector/news-story/fca8a0d81dbef389399e1bbdb35b74b6

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Property prices predicted to fall...Government to the rescue, here have 50 grand each:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/government-set-to-unveil-new-homebuyer-grants-across-the-board-to-prop-up-flailing-construction-sector/news-story/fca8a0d81dbef389399e1bbdb35b74b6

The worry will really start when these things stop working.

 

[Sugarlips]

Latest govt ideas to try to put a floor under house prices (raid your own pension pot).

At least they acknowledge that if they don’t come up with yet more wacky schemes the plates will stop spinning, which is new.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/use-super-to-offset-mortgages-liberal-mp-calls-for-housing-changes-20200612-p551vp.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

“We are facing the biggest correction in the housing market we have seen since the 1890s," Mr Alexander said. In the decade following a major property boom in the 1880s, house prices in some areas fell more than 50 per cent.

"When we did the [2015] inquiry the two triggers that we could see that would correct the market was either an increase in interest rates ... or a higher level of unemployment where people can't pay rent, people won't be able to pay their mortgages," he said.

"I don't want [the public] to lose their investments, I don't want them to lose their home and I don't want the banks to go under and, in turn, I don't want the government to then have to shoulder the combination of all of those events."

 

 

[Sugarlips]

Stupid is as stupid does

paywalled articles unfortunately but the headlines certainly want us to believe..

https://thewest.com.au/business/housing-market/estate-agents-selling-land-late-into-the-night-as-state-and-federal-government-grants-sees-demand-for-new-homes-rises-to-2006-07-boom-levels-ng-b881570936z

and

https://thewest.com.au/business/housing-market/state-and-federal-building-grants-worth-up-to-55000-see-homebuilders-camp-outside-perth-real-estate-sales-offices-ng-b881576529z

[spygirl]

On 12/06/2020 at 20:42, Sugarlips said:

Latest govt ideas to try to put a floor under house prices (raid your own pension pot).

At least they acknowledge that if they don’t come up with yet more wacky schemes the plates will stop spinning, which is new.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/use-super-to-offset-mortgages-liberal-mp-calls-for-housing-changes-20200612-p551vp.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

“We are facing the biggest correction in the housing market we have seen since the 1890s," Mr Alexander said. In the decade following a major property boom in the 1880s, house prices in some areas fell more than 50 per cent.

"When we did the [2015] inquiry the two triggers that we could see that would correct the market was either an increase in interest rates ... or a higher level of unemployment where people can't pay rent, people won't be able to pay their mortgages," he said.

"I don't want [the public] to lose their investments, I don't want them to lose their home and I don't want the banks to go under and, in turn, I don't want the government to then have to shoulder the combination of all of those events."

 

 

So .... Ozzies can loose bithe their housing AND pension.

Fucktards.

[Chewing Grass]

Perhaps they should have packaged all the loans up and flogged them to the Chinese.

  on second thoughts they probably have.

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Perhaps they should have packaged all the loans up and flogged them to the Chinese.

  on second thoughts they probably have.

$2.4Trillion in outstanding mortgages in Oz. No one bats an eyelid.

But to keep the plates spinning the debt monster has to keep growing.

Meanwhile wages keep shrinking.

What could possibly go wrong.

Westpac bank economist Bill Evans is pushing for the RBA to let rates go negative.

[Sugarlips]

Real world can-kicking causing a looming debt disaster for Aussie tenants..

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/coronavirus-rental-hardship-pushed-down-the-line/12259322

Not sure why the smirk in the picture, maybe this lass has got a “special arrangement” with her landlord

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Real world can-kicking causing a looming debt disaster for Aussie tenants..

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/coronavirus-rental-hardship-pushed-down-the-line/12259322

Not sure why the smirk in the picture, maybe this lass has got a “special arrangement” with her landlord

That's a lot of renters for a country with 30mn people......Looks like a disaster waiting to happen

 

An eviction "ban"; a mortgage pause for landlords; income support for renters: extraordinary measures by governments and banks have stopped an eviction surge, kept Australia's 8 million renters in their homes and helped landlords struggling with loans.

Half of the nation's workforce are on income support through an increased JobSeeker payment or the JobKeeper wage subsidy. Both expire after six months.

In addition, the eviction ban and the big four banks' offer to pause mortgage repayments for landlords expire around the end of September too.

Shelter WA chief executive Michelle Mackenzie dreads to think about what will happen when all those supports end within days of each other.

"The world's going to collapse."

Ms Mackenzie said some of her colleagues in community housing associations, who support tenants in government-supplied housing, have almost 40 per cent of their clients in arrears.

Most landlords are small investors with only one or two properties. If they are among the 1.3 million investors who use negative gearing, they were already losing money on the properties before the crisis. '

 

https://aifs.gov.au/facts-and-figures/households-australia/households-australia-source-data

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Real world can-kicking causing a looming debt disaster for Aussie tenants..

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/coronavirus-rental-hardship-pushed-down-the-line/12259322

Not sure why the smirk in the picture, maybe this lass has got a “special arrangement” with her landlord

To be honest, if I'd choose to be a rent, I'd rent in Oz.

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That's a lot of renters for a country with 30mn people......Looks like a disaster waiting to happen

 

An eviction "ban"; a mortgage pause for landlords; income support for renters: extraordinary measures by governments and banks have stopped an eviction surge, kept Australia's 8 million renters in their homes and helped landlords struggling with loans.

Half of the nation's workforce are on income support through an increased JobSeeker payment or the JobKeeper wage subsidy. Both expire after six months.

In addition, the eviction ban and the big four banks' offer to pause mortgage repayments for landlords expire around the end of September too.

Shelter WA chief executive Michelle Mackenzie dreads to think about what will happen when all those supports end within days of each other.

"The world's going to collapse."

Ms Mackenzie said some of her colleagues in community housing associations, who support tenants in government-supplied housing, have almost 40 per cent of their clients in arrears.

Most landlords are small investors with only one or two properties. If they are among the 1.3 million investors who use negative gearing, they were already losing money on the properties before the crisis. '

 

https://aifs.gov.au/facts-and-figures/households-australia/households-australia-source-data

Pop of Oz is 25m.

Was it only 1989 when the pop. was 18m......

Small investors ... negative gearing.....

So. You've 1.3m people, using a nuts setup to own 1 or 2 extra houses. Itll be more 2 than 1.

I make that 3.9m houses, at 3 people per house hold (9m people, 40%), getting on for half the population is housed or has their OO on the line.

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

To be honest, if I'd choose to be a rent, I'd rent in Oz.

Indeed, I can't imagine why anyone would buy, at least in the major Australian cities and at anything like current prices, when renting is so cheap (and generally pretty secure).

Thanks, negative gearing and retarded, innumerate landlords.

[Sugarlips]

This Sydney mansion reduced by a third (now only 6 mil!)

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/big-discount-glamour-estate-with-laser-room-waterfall-listed-with-millions-cut-off-price/?rsf=syn:news:nca:dt:socref

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

This Sydney mansion reduced by a third (now only 6 mil!)

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/big-discount-glamour-estate-with-laser-room-waterfall-listed-with-millions-cut-off-price/?rsf=syn:news:nca:dt:socref

looks decent value when compared tot eh flats that go for $1mnAUD

[wherebee]

On 28/06/2020 at 09:01, sancho panza said:

looks decent value when compared tot eh flats that go for $1mnAUD

two things:

bushfire risk.  The fires have been closer than that to Sydney in the past

transport.  The links to the CBD up to that part are pretty crap.  Not commutable into town.  Think of it as Brighton c/London in terms of time and hassle getting into Sydney.  If you have that sort of money, and want to be 2 hours away, you'd probably buy a place on the coast NE of Sydney, or SE.

[sancho panza]

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/property-price-falls-australia-covid19-jobkeeper-2020-7

• Australian house prices have dropped for the second month running, according to the latest CoreLogic data.
• Prices fell 0.7% nationally in June, after a 0.4% drop in May, with Melbourne the worst affected.
• While the worst case forecasts of 10% falls appear to have been overblown, Victoria’s partial return to lockdown and the expiry of key support measures could see the market fall further.

 

“A variety of factors have helped to protect home values from more significant declines, including persistently low advertised stock levels and significant government stimulus,” Lawless said.

“Additionally, low-interest rates and forbearance policies from lenders have helped to keep urgent sales off the market, providing further insulation to housing values.”

While Sydney and Melbourne’s prices remain 13.3% and 10.2% higher over the last 12 months, they’re both now witnessing the sharpest falls, with the upper end of the market proving the weakest.

But as government and bank support measures approach their September expiry date, there are still larger concerns the market could be headed for a so-called fiscal cliff.

“The key thing that potentially will push prices down is if people are forced to sell their properties,” Wiltshire said.

“If we have people losing JobKeeper or the higher JobSeeker payment and then to need to start repaying their mortgage again, then that’s a really big hit to them, the economy and that will likely see a big rise in forced sales.”

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-rate

 

[sancho panza]

https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/06/24/is-australia-going-into-a-recession/

Is Australia going into a recession?

ABS figures confirm what a lot of us already knew was coming our way — that being the first recession in 29 years in Australia. 

Get Crikey FREE to your inbox every weekday morning with the Crikey Worm.

May numbers reported by ABS show that: 

• Employment decreased by 227,700, to 12,154,100 people
• Full-time employment decreased by 89,100, to 8,540,000 people
• Part-time employment decreased by 138,600, to 3,614,100 people
• Unemployment increased by 85,700, to 927,600 people
• The unemployment rate increased by 0.7 points to 7.1%
• The underemployment rate decreased by 0.7 points to 13.1%
• The underutilisation rate increased by less than 0.1 points to 20.2%
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 12.1 million hours, to 1,604.7 million hours.

(Image: ABS) (Image: ABS)

Unemployment isn’t the only symptom of a recession. Commercial slowdowns, government spending and weak consumer confidence also play a part in reinforcing the recession in Australia, which has been caused by both the bushfires and the coronavirus pandemic.

[wherebee]

Everyone I know with a brain in Australia is preparing for a really, really shit 2021 in terms of recession.

Everyone I know without a brain in Australia is looking forward to summer and buying a new car/pool/shed with jobseeker money.

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, wherebee said:

Everyone I know with a brain in Australia is preparing for a really, really shit 2021 in terms of recession.

Everyone I know without a brain in Australia is looking forward to summer and buying a new car/pool/shed with jobseeker money.

whats the view amongst the inteeligent people on the melbourne lock down?is it melbourne?

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

whats the view amongst the inteeligent people on the melbourne lock down?is it melbourne?

yeah - go look at the Australia post in the covid sub forum.  don't want to derail this economics forum any more than we do!

 

[wherebee]

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/home-prices-fall-again-in-melbourne-sydney-20200731-p55h8k

I was talking to a real estate agent in passing last week who told me that the market was still showing high demand.

Yeah, right.

[sancho panza]

On 31/07/2020 at 07:13, wherebee said:

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/home-prices-fall-again-in-melbourne-sydney-20200731-p55h8k

I was talking to a real estate agent in passing last week who told me that the market was still showing high demand.

Yeah, right.

I have family in Oz talking 30% down and selling to rent(Mrs jsut lsot her job)...these are perma bulls on Oz property.could get very itneresting if a sell off begins in earnest

[wherebee]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I have family in Oz talking 30% down and selling to rent(Mrs jsut lsot her job)...these are perma bulls on Oz property.could get very itneresting if a sell off begins in earnest

I always try to throw into conversations here on property 'I don;t care if my house halves in price - it's a home and we are not moving any time soon.  Lets my kids have a chance of buying'.

Soon tells you who has leveraged investment properties...

[sancho panza]

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/08/why-melbourne-property-prices-will-plummet/

Why Melbourne property prices will plummet

By Leith van Onselen in Australian Property

at 2:40 pm on August 7, 2020 | 24 comments

CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, has done a good job explaining why Melbourne dwelling values are falling at a much faster pace than the rest of the nation:

Melbourne has so far seen the largest cumulative declines in property values since March (3.5%). This was led by a 5.2% decline across the Inner East region.

As has been explored in recent weeks, the steeper decline across the Melbourne market is two-fold. Cyclically, Melbourne property is subject to more volatile growth rates, and is also presenting strong declines off the back of very high growth rates through the previous upswing. Structurally, there has been an enormous demand shock to the Melbourne property market with the closure of international borders, where Melbourne previously had the highest level of net overseas migration of the capital city markets.

This is similar to the Sydney housing market, which received the second highest volume of net interstate migrants over 2018-19.

Victoria has also seen the largest decline in payroll jobs of the states and territories, according to ABS data…

Looking forward, there are a variety of factors that will influence the outlook for home values. Of immediate concern is the steepening curve of the virus in Victoria. Considering Victoria accounts for around one quarter of the nation’s economy, the stagefour lockdown has already dampened both consumer and business sentiment nationally and the interruption to economic activity will deepen and lengthen Australia’s recession. Cities where labour markets are more impacted are also likely to under-perform, as will those with more significant exposure to overseas migration as a source of housing demand.

As federal government fiscal support moves from around $18 billion per month to around $3 billion from October, housing market conditions will be tested more broadly; this is when we are likely to see a rise in the number of households facing financial distress and a lift in urgent sales. The expiry of mortgage repayment holidays is another downside factor for the market. Pre-COVID, mortgage arrears remained around 1% of the mortgage book, but with unemployment expected to reach 10%, along with less fiscal support and an expectation that mortgagors taking a repayment holiday will need to face up to their debts by April next year, it’s reasonable to expect a sharp rise in mortgage arrears which could see a lift in distressed properties hitting the market…

The outlook for both the economy and housing markets remains extremely uncertain, but risk remains skewed to the downside.

The explosion of COVID-19 cases across Melbourne and the city’s harsh lockdown will cripple spending and likely send a large number of businesses to the wall, driving up unemployment, shrinking household income, and causing a large number of loan defaults.

Melbourne’s economy is also most heavily reliant on immigration, which has virtually stopped.

Melbourne’s property market was already heavily overvalued in the lead-up to COVID-19. Now it faces a steep correction as fundamentals deteriorate.