Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

4 hours ago, planit said:

I know this is a Macro thread and Tesla is as far as you can get from where we are but I want to comment, if you don't want to read then **c* off and skip this post.

No need to be like that.  The trick is to say the markets are mad at the macro level (which they are) and here's a great example......!  Very good info.  I've noticed plenty of so so company fundamentals but nothing in this much detail.  What gets me is I know I'm in a bubble, as much as if I got slapped across the face by a wet fish, but I guess I'm just tranced by the pretty lights and beats.  The hangover's gonna hurt.

[Noallegiance]

Here it comes...

Calls to make furlough scheme permanent with 80% pay for people who lose their jobs (msn.com)

[Harley]

3 hours ago, CVG said:

I made the mistake of buying metal racking from B&Q. It buckled very quickly after only 60 cans of beans (plus 150+ assorted others)

No joke, I did the sums before buying my metal cupboards!

[JMD]

3 hours ago, CVG said:

I made the mistake of buying metal racking from B&Q. It buckled very quickly after only 60 cans of beans (plus 150+ assorted others)

...the '150 assorted others' intrigues me, but i shan't ask as i am easily embarrased!!

...btw, was that defective metal racking from China by any chance?!

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

Exactly this. It's difficult, but short term sentiment swings should absolutely be ignored. Expect frequent 5% pullbacks in portfolio value. I've had a few psychological wobbles over the past six months (who hasn't in the current market?) but managed to ignore the gut and hold on to see portfolio make another ATH a few weeks later.

Dare I say it, there's something to the "HODL" meme.

I nearly sold some RDSB this week as the monthlies were softening but then looked harder to conclude maybe just a pullback which would probably cost net to get back into.   Thought how all this japping can make you trigger sensitive.  I've got enough profit to wait for a material signal.  

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

I agree, plus your post kinda reminded me of something i read recently, so have linked to it below. The 'anti-fragility thing' has many overlaps with finding a successful investment style imho. 

10 Principles to Live an Antifragile Life (fs.blog)

 

Nice link thanks.  Like it very: "The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better".

 

[Alex]

35 minutes ago, feed said:

maybe this is a perception thing.  Self driving isn't really a term that the industry really uses.  It's a headline grabber.  If people are really expecting Johnny cab, then no that's not happening anytime soon for passenger vehicles 

Autonomous use looks like this. 

  

 

 

This seems appropriate:

https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fsd

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Interesting discussion Harley. So what am i missing, i.e. how does the politics affect the investment case? 

To summarise,  I'm aware of the 'sharing economy/you'll own nothing...' theory. I even think large swathes of housing stock will move into government hands (government mortgage loan guarantees eventually force property assets to be swallowed up by the state as/when banks fail).

However, regarding EV's, i fail to see how a change in ownership model substantially affects the production numbers or the transition timescales to EV/hydrogen, etc. What i mean is - in terms of investment - if we get less cars built in the West, surely that would be more than offset by increases across China/India?

(isn't it really the same case made frequently on here regarding future energy/oil demand increasing in Asia, so despite what many would have us believe, oil companies are will continue to be very investible?)

 

Aside any modern wokery stuff, I just see them getting very expensive to buy and run as-is, let alone any road pricing, etc.  EV when that comes will cost a fortune too.  The woke may spin and backslap but it'll be good old fashioned economics (commodity prices, income levels, etc)!

[Animal Spirits]

16 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I thought Powell was very poor in the presser. He was asked @DurhamBorns question about how they will tighten, by rates or by tapering, he fluffed it a bit and went back to script. Some good questions from the press today. 

Peter Boockvar was also not impressed by the sounds of this:

Major intensifying inflation pressures.

"They (The Fed) better hope that it's transitory or else they are going to be mugged by some serious reality this summer"

Some further discussion regarding Fed macro policy relevant to the thread over the short term.

[Harley]

Following on from @JMD link and its comment "In short, stop optimizing for today or tomorrow and start playing the long game. That means being less efficient in the short term but more effective in the long term".....

Bought some gold today.  Not silver at those premiums.  That was one for last year and before.  May grab some Platinum, screws, and more engine spares.  Now what else should I be doing with my fiat?!  A prepaid funeral maybe?

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

Peter Boockvar was also not impressed by the sounds of this:

Major intensifying inflation pressures.

"They (The Fed) better hope that it's transitory or else they are going to be mugged by some serious reality this summer"

Some further discussion regarding Fed macro policy relevant to the thread over the short term.

Never underestimate the FED and all the rest.  They have an almost unlimited ability to distract and rewrite the narrative.  Agreed, each twist may be more extreme than the last, but most just open their windows wider to accomodate the (perceived) only game in town.

[CVG]

47 minutes ago, JMD said:

...the '150 assorted others' intrigues me, but i shan't ask as i am easily embarrased!!

...btw, was that defective metal racking from China by any chance?!

 

I refuse to be sucked into posting recipes but let's just say corned beef, spam, chopped tomatoes, chickpeas, kidney beans, new potatoes, tinned fruit, evaporated milk, etc and then ...... bang!

[planit]

1 minute ago, CVG said:

I refuse to be sucked into posting recipes but let's just say corned beef, spam, chopped tomatoes, chickpeas, kidney beans, new potatoes, tinned fruit, evaporated milk, etc and then ...... bang!

bang = sick all over the place; right?

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, planit said:

bang = sick all over the place; right?

I'll keep it nice, but you mean....

Bang indeed!

[reformed nice guy]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Only slowing its purchases remember though,the question is do they remove any liquidity they printed,or do they use rates instead.I think they will use rates and not remove the liquidity so starting the cycle with a much higher monetary base.They are going to say theres the inflation,let the market share it out.

Sorry to be a bit morbid, but how would a "black swan event" like conflict (Taiwan for example) or a major terrorist event (9/11 style) relate to your road map?

Would that cancel rate rises and cause printing to go insane?

[Wheeler]

21 minutes ago, Harley said:

Following on from @JMD link and its comment "In short, stop optimizing for today or tomorrow and start playing the long game. That means being less efficient in the short term but more effective in the long term".....

Bought some gold today.  Not silver at those premiums.  That was one for last year and before.  May grab some Platinum, screws, and more engine spares.  Now what else should I be doing with my fiat?!  A prepaid funeral maybe?

I wouldn’t bother. When you are dead it’s someone else’s problem.

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

When you are dead stupid it’s someone else’s problem.

More apt for the times, I feel.

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Here it comes...

Calls to make furlough scheme permanent with 80% pay for people who lose their jobs (msn.com)

Wow - what a story @Noallegiance

 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, geordie_lurch said:

Wow - what a story @Noallegiance

Wow - what a story @Noallegiance

Wow - what a story @Noallegiance

Thanks

Thanks

Thanks

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I wouldn’t bother. When you are dead it’s someone else’s problem.

I run a family office, of sorts! 

[Barnsey]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think we will be close to double digit here in the UK though i dont trust the way we measure to pick it up.Lots of items in the shops are going up 20% in one jump.Iv been stocking up on tins etc with 2 years supply 

I bought 42 carex hand soaps from Amazon 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Here it comes...

Calls to make furlough scheme permanent with 80% pay for people who lose their jobs (msn.com)

What did I tell you all way back! 

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

What did I tell you all way back! 

People given money to produce fuck all.

Let's pour some Castrol on that inflationary pyre.

Other oils are available.

[Barnsey]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

People given money to produce fuck all.

Let's pour some Castrol on that inflationary pyre.

Other oils are available.

Setting aside my own personal feelings about the fairness of furlough, it has kinda worked though hasn't it? Wages on the up both here and the States.

[feed]

14 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

What did I tell you all way back! 

where unemployment support is paid at 80% at previous pay for three months 

well the proposal is 3 months and it's base on previous pay. i.e. if you've worked you get better benefits. 

Not that it's getting implemented, anyway.