Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

The process generally seems to be just fill in a survey about your attitude to risk based on several factors such as age/employement status and proposed retirement date etc which then matches up with the fund risk number and voila...you have been advised.

To be fair for people who have zero understanding of investing and come into a lot of money,inheritance,pension lump sum etc IFAs mostly do a decent job.When i did my pension transfer the funds they came up with were quite balanced,but the ongoing fees all in were 2.1% thats a hugely high fee that even in a good decade would of took a third of the profits nearly.They pretty much put you in Vanguard funds with the odd extra bond,Europe,US equity fund etc but they nearly all use the 40/60 type set ups.Most people wont question things if the value is going up 5% a year,but a slow grind down that looks likely for that mix will shock a lot of people.

[Animal Spirits]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

To be fair for people who have zero understanding of investing and come into a lot of money,inheritance,pension lump sum etc IFAs mostly do a decent job.When i did my pension transfer the funds they came up with were quite balanced,but the ongoing fees all in were 2.1% thats a hugely high fee that even in a good decade would of took a third of the profits nearly.They pretty much put you in Vanguard funds with the odd extra bond,Europe,US equity fund etc but they nearly all use the 40/60 type set ups.Most people wont question things if the value is going up 5% a year,but a slow grind down that looks likely for that mix will shock a lot of people.

True, they have to implement some sort of standardised process that makes it understandable.

[Animal Spirits]

1 hour ago, Animal Spirits said:

 

 

Edit: Forgot to mention in the previous post that most of the current balance of loans is Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility as indicated in the table. This is non recourse loans to financial institutions for small businesses.

[Hancock]

Sunak and his mates are looking at other ways to syphon private pensions -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/27/sunak-weighs-investing-pensions-start-ups-drive-recovery/

[Harley]

11 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

If this country ever converts like for like to EVs, and if renewables doesnt turn into the biggest fucking disaster in this country's peacetime history, i will show my arse in the shop window of your choice. 

Amsterdam?

[macca]

On 25/06/2021 at 15:06, Hardhat said:

I just want PMs to run!

Actually been selling out / taking profits from quite a few positions (anything over 100% up) lately to de-risk myself a bit.

Anecdotally though work (construction) is going mad at the moment. Everyone sorting out their premises anticipating return to work in offices.

my office is being converted into flats.. working from home only now or redundant 

[macca]

On 25/06/2021 at 11:18, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57600757

 

UK deaths outnumber births for first time in 40 years

2019 non EU immigration at record highs..

if we don't have more kids they will import people

[Lightscribe]

17 hours ago, AWW said:

Went to a party last night and got chatting to a guy who'd just qualified as a financial advisor. I asked him what his views were on some of our favourite subjects. The cycle turn. Housing. Equities. ESG. He didn't really have a view on any of it: "I'm just trained to choose oa risk profile based on the person's age and risk appetite, then put them into the appropriate funds."

K people PAY for this advice!

And that’s exactly it, just one step up from Martin Lewis. IFAs advise on the here and now based on current conditions and FIRE investors do exactly the same.

One look on the FT comments will confirm that again. We are facing the biggest economic upheaval in our lifetimes (maybe history) and everyone seems oblivious.

I sometimes wonder if the NPC meme is real (having no critical thinking voice in your head) 

[leonardratso]

i love looking at my pension projections and readng heres what it could be worth when you retire.

Its a fucking farce, like anyone could live on that when it happens (if...)  and they assume youll buy some shit annuity that gives you basically shag all. Not worth the pdf its printed on.

[Chewing Grass]

Went back 12 months to see what I was paying in direct interest to 'the bank' each month and it was £217, then looked what it was last month £151. By the end of the Summer I'm going to get that down to £80 and by the dawn of 2022 hopefully £35.

That is all taxed money so is effectively worth £255 to me at the lower rate.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

i love looking at my pension projections and readng heres what it could be worth when you retire.

Its a fucking farce, like anyone could live on that when it happens (if...)  and they assume youll buy some shit annuity that gives you basically shag all. Not worth the pdf its printed on.

Where i worked the lads on the line are on good money around £31k a year before overtime.One lad had 10 years in and was paying full into the pension with their matched savings.It was worth £45k.The choice of funds was terrible,about four.35 years there on that he would be looking at under £200k.Nice amount with a full state pension,but difficult to go much more than a couple of years early especially with no understanding of investing.Likely most will go into drawdown and go to a local IFA so then the 2% fees on the fund and they would target 5% after fees and in an inflation period probably fail badly.I used to leave and go back and one reason was so i could transfer out into my SIPP.Another crazy rule to protect the idiots where you cant transfer if a member.

[DurhamBorn]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica chart looks good to me, time for a sneaky top up 

Il take you word for it and iv just joined you, no DYOR here because i try not to look at them,,,,,bought a slab.No pressure,but iv only ever had pain from them.Lets see  

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica chart looks good to me, time for a sneaky top up 

You were meant to have bought back in Dec20, or Jan21 if you were uber cautious!  Now comes the pullback?

 

[leonardratso]

i was getting bored of them and have been dumping cna, even at a loss, they too fecking slow.
watch them get a bid now.

[Barnsey]

Ignore the sage at your peril

 

[janch]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

i was getting bored of them and have been dumping cna, even at a loss, they too fecking slow.
watch them get a bid now.

That was the first share I bought when I took the plunge to start investing again after having my fingers badly burnt many years ago.  I probably would never have restarted without this excellent thread but I should have known better with this one as I had a terrible job for a few weeks in a British Gas call-centre.  It was the worst job I ever had and the new trainees had to wait 7 weeks to get their first pay cheque Apart from that we had to sell,sell,sell even though the job was in the "homemovers" department and the first 20 mins of every day in work was spent uploading 8 different systems.  That was before the shift started so you didn't get paid for that time.

I doubt if the company has changed much in the intervening years.  Anyway I too have dumped the shares at a loss and I won't be rebuying unless gas prices shoot up in which case they might deserve another look.

[leonardratso]

39 minutes ago, janch said:

That was the first share I bought when I took the plunge to start investing again after having my fingers badly burnt many years ago.  I probably would never have restarted without this excellent thread but I should have known better with this one as I had a terrible job for a few weeks in a British Gas call-centre.  It was the worst job I ever had and the new trainees had to wait 7 weeks to get their first pay cheque Apart from that we had to sell,sell,sell even though the job was in the "homemovers" department and the first 20 mins of every day in work was spent uploading 8 different systems.  That was before the shift started so you didn't get paid for that time.

I doubt if the company has changed much in the intervening years.  Anyway I too have dumped the shares at a loss and I won't be rebuying unless gas prices shoot up in which case they might deserve another look.

aye, complete shite.

nuff said.

[Barnsey]

And...

 

[Transistor Man]

Lyn Alden on Energy. 

Very good, well worth a read.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4436929-the-case-for-a-longer-term-oil-and-gas-bull-market?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Transistor Man said:

Lyn Alden on Energy. 

Very good, well worth a read.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4436929-the-case-for-a-longer-term-oil-and-gas-bull-market?__twitter_impression=true

 

That is bloody brilliant. Thanks for posting

[Lightscribe]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/28/lorry-driver-shortage-uk-government-and-retailers-in-emergency-talks-covid-brexit

Another anecdotal, my brothers haulage firm he uses has stated they just can’t get drivers. When they leave, it’s impossible to replace them apparently. They are really starting to struggle at this point.

Think we’re heading for some major logistical issues showing up in the next few months.

As much as where the blame is placed in the above article as expected from the Guardian, it seems to be not just the UK. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/business/gas-station-outages/index.html

[Innkeeper]

59 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/28/lorry-driver-shortage-uk-government-and-retailers-in-emergency-talks-covid-brexit

Another anecdotal, my brothers haulage firm he uses has stated they just can’t get drivers. When they leave, it’s impossible to replace them apparently. They are really starting to struggle at this point.

Think we’re heading for some major logistical issues showing up in the next few months.

As much as where the blame is placed in the above article as expected from the Guardian, it seems to be not just the UK. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/business/gas-station-outages/index.html

For a couple of decades employers have been riding the wave of experienced ‘home grown’ labour and younger cheaper foreign trained labour.  Both these are running out as the home grown older labour force retires and the overseas workforce finds something better/goes home/can’t come here.

Corporate board members are paid millions to sort the answer to these problems instead of moaning.  It’s tougher for small businesses but they have to adapt.  Proper training, wages and a sense that the company actually appreciates you will go a long way (even to pull some of the skivers off their sofas).  But these basic things have long disappeared in the face of cooperate greed, terrible management and hopeless self serving trade unions.

 

[BadAlchemy]

For my 'atlas shrugged' moment I quit lucrative IT contracting and am now semi-retired, but I do a couple of days a week stress free work in a supermarket warehouse so as not to run down savings too much.

Speaking to the lorry drivers there and, yes, they cannot get drivers now and are currently in dire need of about 30 of them. Hope you all still have your lockdown/prepper food stashes in place?

Globalization and disinflation cycle chickens all coming home to roost, now. (Speaking of which I really should get some chickens... LOL!)
 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/28/lorry-driver-shortage-uk-government-and-retailers-in-emergency-talks-covid-brexit

Another anecdotal, my brothers haulage firm he uses has stated they just can’t get drivers. When they leave, it’s impossible to replace them apparently. They are really starting to struggle at this point.

Think we’re heading for some major logistical issues showing up in the next few months.

As much as where the blame is placed in the above article as expected from the Guardian, it seems to be not just the UK. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/business/gas-station-outages/index.html

Company i'm working for can't get lorry's to deliver their product ... will mean dozens of skilled people at the other end twiddling their thumbs when there is work installing the product.

[HousePriceMania]

Has anyone thought of shorting rightmove/persimmon/house builders ?

If UKPropertyLion data shows a significant fall in the number of properties listed for sale I think rightmove could have a real problem and I am serious considering shorting them.

As for persimmon etc, if the price of houses has gone up 13% in a year and prices have reached historically affordably high levels, we could see a significant correction.

Didn't the people from the big short make a fortune from the 2007 collapse ?