Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58636467.amp

 

The sound of pennies dropping........... 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58636467.amp

 

The sound of pennies dropping........... 

Read some of the comments. It will be a very difficult winter but when has it not been. Nice to see I hope a lot of the woke greenies being pissed off with having to pay more to keep warm. Maybe, just maybe the penny has dropped. PMSL at some of the comments..... Brexit.... oh do fuck off lol.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

I'll pick up more platinum if it goes sub 900. Seems to be the metal no one is interested in yet is historically 2x gold.

Still have 30 percent cash reserve for a BK.

Yes, i bought my physical (well actually etf) platinum for similar reason. I didn't buy gold but plan to pivot from platinum into gold if/when it rises 2-3-4x(?) gold... well that's the plan, a risk, but worth taking i think.

In fact i think these type of 'arbitrage trades' are great. For me, they hit the risk/reward sweet spot - because i am not a trader - of being actively in the asset class, plus able to pivot/part pivot, etc into something 'better'/less volatile/more long-term, etc... Only wish there were more of these types of opportunities - though i guess in reality i am seeking the holy grail of investing, i.e. quiet an ask!!... But does anyone here have some related ideas?

 

(I do hold lots of the gold miners though, but again would have much preferred to have loaded up much more on the silver miners. However, didn't know which ones to buy back when they were cheap, so opportunity lost i think?)

 

 

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

The new supplier doesn't have to honour the customer's existing contract:

There was a poor unfortunate man on TV this morning saying his bill had doubled. Personally I would like to wish him all the best, no doubt you vultures will just be thinking "thanks for the money you mug"

Personally I don't sit in judgement of that unfortunate man (except perhaps his maths skills?) - but i do wonder whether he will continue using his Greta key-chain for his Nissan Leaf?

...Oops, i appear to have inadvertently judged him after all!! I shall immediately plant a tree to honor him... whats the saying, 'let a thousand flowers/Nissan Leafs bloom'!?  

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

In essence Russia taking advantage of demand. 

Possibly free of the constraints a dominant USA could impose?

We're all electric in our new house. As I posted a while ago our electricity costs would have been double the combined gas and electric fuel of our slightly smaller previous house. Looking like the differential is now shrinking. Until electricty prices increase .

Lets see how long my new entrant supplier lasts and whether I get the full benefit of the one year fix I chose. 

Unit Rate per kWh 12.514

Daily Standing charge 12.000p

Who's your supplier?

[Sidd]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

(I do hold lots of the gold miners though, but again would have much preferred to have loaded up much more on the silver miners. However, didn't know which ones to buy back when they were cheap, so opportunity lost i think?)

Some would say the opportunity is now. Most of mine have been smashed since theirs highs a few months back (First majestic, Avino, Endeavour to name a few). 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just had some BS come through from a big company we do work for, 10 years ago they referred to their work as a business, 5 years ago it was a mission, it has just turned into 'a purpose' so I'm glad they still have that and money doesn't come into it any more...

Please don't 'indulge' them!

Sorry, i couldn't resist (the 'connection' was jumping out at me) but then i have become just a little bit obsessed with the term/word, since learning of its root.

But not completely off-thread i think, its somehow relevant to our creeping (creepy?) economic times i fear?! Anyway, for more details:  Indulgence - Wikipedia

[sleepwello'nights]

23 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Who's your supplier?

Symbio. That tariff is no longer available. Just looked and they are not accepting any new customers.

Get Quote | Symbio Energy | Price Guarantee Promise | Cheap and green energy in UK (symbiogetquote.co.uk)

[No One]

@DurhamBorn I have a new job, and with it a new pension.

Just received the paperwork through the mail this morning, I'm with Standard Life and this is their product.

Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3

 

 

 

From what I can see, it's a fund made up of funds.

My question to you is, do they skim commission on the funds in the funds as well as the discounted 0.4% per year?

You seem to be an expert on this, my first impression is that it looks shit and should ask HR to redirect my pension contributions to my SIPP. If that's an option.

 

 

 

[planit]

14 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Symbio. That tariff is no longer available. Just looked and they are not accepting any new customers.

Get Quote | Symbio Energy | Price Guarantee Promise | Cheap and green energy in UK (symbiogetquote.co.uk)

Add them to the insolvent list then. Waiting to see if they get bailed out.

[AlfredTheLittle]

15 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Symbio. That tariff is no longer available. Just looked and they are not accepting any new customers.

Get Quote | Symbio Energy | Price Guarantee Promise | Cheap and green energy in UK (symbiogetquote.co.uk)

Thanks, I'll keep an eye on it, hopefully will open up again once the current panic's over. Your rate is less than half mine, which was apparently the best available last week.

[wherebee]

On 20/09/2021 at 22:41, wherebee said:

Yeah, just bought 3k GBP worth at 52.86.  Let's see whether it's a fun party to join!

up 100 quid. YAY!

This is a lot more fun than having to think about the collapse of Australian democracy...

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58636467.amp

 

The sound of pennies dropping........... 

The Media and the Bedwetters wanted Lockdowns and Furlough so now it's time to pay the Piper.

[janch]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

But another lesson, something I did flirt with at the time, was to trade their 2020 bounce to exit evens. 

Yes, being a newbie investor, it never crossed my mind!  I held on and then got fed up and sold the likes of GOG/SGC and CNA.  However I've just bought some more AAL so it's an experiment to see if I can recoup some of the recent loss there.  However it's a bit of an experiment as if China really is in trouble it may never get back to what it was

When I look back on the last couple of years, I really have learnt a huge amount and without this thread I doubt I would have even started and I'd be looking at my cash ISA and worrying about the paltry interest rate when inflation is taking off bigly So many thanks to @DurhamBornfor this invaluable education.

I still have most of my capital in cash as truth is I can't afford to lose too much in stocks so I'm a bit of a nervous investor.  That hasn't stopped a few speculative bets over the summer when quite a lot was rising which I think was more sentiment driven than anything else more fundamental and I've made a bit. 

As you can see I'm a bit schizophrenic as I understand I'm likely to make more in the stock market long term than in cash but somehow I don't really believe it, so like the safety of cash!  My excuse is we are living through very strange times.  I'm hopeful I will become more confident as an investor....

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've heard nothing but utter bollox come out of his mouth since this blew up, he simply doesn't grasp the problem. As I said a few weeks back, frozen old people on the front page of the Daily Mail will focus minds, but I'm really hoping it doesn't come to that.

Politics aside, I think Kwasi Kwarteng will be the next Tory party leader/PM (heard it here first!). His current energy brief might be a poison chalice, but actually he has a first class academic brain and it looks to me like he's being covertly groomed for high office. Not a two horse race of course, but Kwarteng is an impressive speaker and thinker, whereas Sunak is a very damp (eat-out-to-help-out) squib. 

I don't vote conservative, but the conservatives are i think the governing party for the foreseeable, so its interesting to conjecture who might be next after Boris. Plus it kinda helps to inform who Labour may install next (after their very time-limited current leader; a 'Sir' Keir was never going to cut through). Though i expect the 'media darling' Burnham is pretty much a shoe-in.   

...but of course, as@DurhamBornregularly reminds us, the politics play is mostly a charade. And our 'leaders' always end up enacting the economic script.  

[Ma2]

1 hour ago, No One said:

my first impression is that it looks shit and should ask HR to redirect my pension contributions to my SIPP. If that's an option.

This is what started my journey and landed me on here (although I've got a month of catching up to do as needed a break!)

So I have the same pension and was put into a similar fund.

I will dig out the instructions for moving to SIPP that I used. May differ from your company.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv played the sector pretty badly considering.I owned it too early,got smashed on those last March etc,but bought a lot in National,Go Ahead and Stagecoach at the bottom,so ended up with a decent profit,but it should of been far higher.I think this merger is good news for shareholders.My partner has some Stagecoach at average £1.02 so eliminating most of the red is good news because she nags me on that and Centrica  ,

Its actually pleasing when you have to go back and look over mistakes and try to understand them. Im finding most of mine the last few years have been simple timing issues.Ladders really helped,but didnt avoid entering too early in some areas.

Laddering definitely helps, but I'm not a trader... so i employ the rather basic thesis of Marin Katusa - 'Invest like a (predatory) crocodile, and let the market (your prey) come to you!!'

Of course, as discussed on here recently, the danger is that whilst waiting patiently for say the BK to arrive, the ravages of time/inflation may first cause you (or your capitol) to go extinct!?!

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's in the wrong place (Russia) and idiot governments across Europe neglected to sign contracts with them while it was cheap, instead becoming reliant on non contractual top ups while they go off and build windmills that don't turn in a still autumn while shutting down coal and nuclear.  And yes, a child with crayons could have seen this coming.

And am i right in saying that it is Germany that is the biggest exemplar/culprit for doing this? Talk about cognitive dissonance.

But is this yet another (historical) example of Germany taking Europe down another false and ultimately destructive path? Serious question btw. 

[No One]

Can anyone take a peek at Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3 and tell me if it's shit?

[ThoughtCriminal]

The only Johnson quote on the energy issue you need to see.

 

"It showed that the UK was right to be moving to renewable energy, he added." 

 

What. The. Fuck. 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Sidd said:

Some would say the opportunity is now. Most of mine have been smashed since theirs highs a few months back (First majestic, Avino, Endeavour to name a few). 

Thanks Sidd, but can i ask is Avino Silver and Gold a long term hold for you or is it mainly a speculative buy? I ask because last time i looked Avino silver and gold had no producing mines. And unfortunately that is one of my red-flags in terms of evaluating risk, simply because i don't have great knowledge of the sector so am pretty risk averse.

[Barnsey]

 

[leonardratso]

got a letter from LANDG, saying my pension was >10% in cash and i could be missing out on capital growth, hahahaha, i immediately signed on and moved more into cash, this was before the tanking of the equity funds.

What they neglected to say as well was that i could be missing out on capital decay. (but not in the cash fund).

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

 

Covid the body punch and Evergrande the upper cut?

[Castlevania]

Draft Kings have made a $20 billion bid for Entain. Wow!

I sold the last of my stock for ~£19 a share a month or so ago

Edit: rumoured to be in the £25 a share range. Although Draft Kings stock is down 6% at present so maybe not quite that generous.

[Errol]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said: