Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

My new investment strategy.

 

Day 1................ 

[Chewing Grass]

Word of mouth got round at work that I 'knew what I was talking about' at work with regard to Pensions.

Just had the second engineer this month ask me to explain their fresh pension 'statement', what it was worth and what they could do.

Today's is 59 and needs the money, its in a BAE Systems scheme which is unfathomably complex and appears to be some hybrid between final salary and money purchase.

The one earlier in the month was a private scheme that the engineer drifted into when his employer was privatised and is again so good he wants the money now.

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

Completely agree, many cannot see the point in pushing any more. Time to relax.

It's a complete mess.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Trouble is those non-speculative, defensive, income generating companies typically carry a lot of debt and/or negative equity net of intangibles (particularly goodwill).  That is, they have been hollowed out.   Not just the utilities, by a long way.

More of the Asian and Russian ones tend to be better on this score, as do several energy companies generally, but it's going to be tough in the US in particular if people do care (which a few solvency blow ups would encourage). 

Again, potentially points to a stock pickers market if going that way (some sages say just stay out and trade the options).  At least I hope so because I've passed on enought profits on fundamentally weak companies bid up by those who don't care!

Agreed. I should mention that I only use a proxy for judging debt, basically debt/equity ratio, tangible vs intangible assets, and fcf for debt payment affordability. Not ideal, I'd prefer to do a full debt profile including knowing loan bond duration and rates but unfortunately would take me too long.                                                                    There are some sectors with low debt, chemicals and farm land come to mind. However I bet institutions will move their ex-bond money big time into the carbon credit market, open to us retail also of course but I can't find enough independent commentators, apart from Marin Katusa, in order for me to properly evaluate this market.                                                                                                                                                     I also agree what you say about the options market. Actually I would like to try out options at some point but would only do so if/when we get a subscription advice type service here in UK, such as the US operation (can't recall their name, that we spoke about previously) that is apparently coming here soon. I just think Id personally need some 'hand-holding' for say couple years and would be willing to pay for this (approx 2k/annum I believe).

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Love me some Chevron. Old school.

Top.  I own Chevron.  I now know why I liked their financials with a guy like that at the helm.  I have indeed planted my own trees, about 400, and have invested in solar so it's a good match!  Makes the muppets look like, well, muppets!

[Bobthebuilder]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Makes the muppets look like, well, muppets!

 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Word of mouth got round at work that I 'knew what I was talking about' at work with regard to Pensions.

Just had the second engineer this month ask me to explain their fresh pension 'statement', what it was worth and what they could do.

Today's is 59 and needs the money, its in a BAE Systems scheme which is unfathomably complex and appears to be some hybrid between final salary and money purchase.

The one earlier in the month was a private scheme that the engineer drifted into when his employer was privatised and is again so good he wants the money now.

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

Did hey say what they wanted the money for?

Odds on its properdee. Odds on its a nagging wife, counting the rent, forgetting  the voids and costs.

Nuts, as they cannot get the yield.

 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Word of mouth got round at work that I 'knew what I was talking about' at work with regard to Pensions.

Just had the second engineer this month ask me to explain their fresh pension 'statement', what it was worth and what they could do.

Today's is 59 and needs the money, its in a BAE Systems scheme which is unfathomably complex and appears to be some hybrid between final salary and money purchase.

The one earlier in the month was a private scheme that the engineer drifted into when his employer was privatised and is again so good he wants the money now.

I get the impression that a Pensions run has started due to folk being screwed over on wages, general inflation and tax with the added bonus that nobody trusts the government anymore.

The currencies have been debased.

CB fault.

If they maintained a low yield then there would not be this problem.

The FED understands this, being closer to money markets.

No such thing in the UK, bar BS savings, which have been destroyed.

Not sure how the BoE can respond - other than having to put up IRs more.

The UK inflation is now showign that the BoE has lost it.

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Did hey say what they wanted the money for?

Odds on its properdee. Odds on its a nagging wife, counting the rent, forgetting  the voids and costs.

Nuts, as they cannot get the yield.

 

No, he has just been on the receiving end of a divorce and is worn out and skint, lives in a rented terrace house.

Think the only thing that keeps him going are his school age kids.

The other one needs the money to fix his gable end wall and roof on his end terrace, high-skill jobs in the Engineering Sector for those that do (rather than manage) don't pay that much compared to 30 plus years ago.

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

No, he has just been on the receiving end of a divorce and is worn out and skint, lives in a rented terrace house.

Think the only thing that keeps him going are his school age kids.

The other one needs the money to fix his gable end wall and roof on his end terrace, high-skill jobs in the Engineering Sector for those that do (rather than manage) don't pay that much compared to 30 plus years ago.

Iv always has lots of people asking for help around finances,pension more the last few years.Iv found there are lots of people who worked far too long.One guy hated work with a passion,58,with a transfer he had £400k ,but his wife already had an £800 a month final salary pension in payment and both had full state pensions.His wife had a part time job as well.It was fear and lack of understanding  that stopped him.

Whats certain now though is lots more are deciding to pack in early and access pensions.Its one of the factors in employers not being able to get staff.

I noticed today a few big empoyers out in the sticks Quorn been one are all wanting staff,obvious their eastern European destroy local wages slaves havent returned.They are even offering to bus you in from Redcar.

[GTM]

Sleazy Joe is coming to sort oil and gas prices out:

So politicians have spent the last couple of decades kicking the oil companies in the bollocks and stealing their lunch money. They finally get a well deserved punch in the face back and they go crying to mummy. That boy isn't sharing they say through pathetic sobs.

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv always has lots of people asking for help around finances,pension more the last few years.Iv found there are lots of people who worked far too long.One guy hated work with a passion,58,with a transfer he had £400k ,but his wife already had an £800 a month final salary pension in payment and both had full state pensions.His wife had a part time job as well.It was fear and lack of understanding  that stopped him.

Whats certain now though is lots more are deciding to pack in early and access pensions.Its one of the factors in employers not being able to get staff.

I noticed today a few big empoyers out in the sticks Quorn been one are all wanting staff,obvious their eastern European destroy local wages slaves havent returned.They are even offering to bus you in from Redcar.

I cashed some in, knowing the risks.  Not a lot though.  I value optionality.  Earmarked for cost saving non financial investments.

24 minutes ago, GTM said:

Sleazy Joe is coming to sort oil and gas prices out:

So politicians have spent the last couple of decades kicking the oil companies in the bollocks and stealing their lunch money. They finally get a well deserved punch in the face back and they go crying to mummy. That boy isn't sharing they say through pathetic sobs.

We have sooo been here before in history!

[Harley]

Reduced my HKD (stocks and cash) holdings as well as HSBC exposure overnight.  Kept some gooduns though.  What with this noise, Johnathan Davis' warning, and us getting into bed with our own version of North Korea, I'm cautious.  Ready to buy back in if and when but with risk funds.  Now on to deal with potential ripples!

[StrugglingMillennial]

Apparently Evergrande has been delaying wages to their staff, I'm starting to now think about how many suppliers they would wipe out when they don't pay them as well.

It does make you wonder just how much of an impact this could have on the global market.

[Lightscribe]

11 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Completely agree, many cannot see the point in pushing any more. Time to relax.

It's a complete mess.

They knew exactly what they’ve done, this isn’t anything to do with incompetence as it’s been replicated across all the western countries. 

They knew that by taking out the historical manufacturing base of the whole economy and the reliance on cheap imported labour, would backfire further down the road when those not eligible for benefits disappeared.

They knew by making the majority of the populous sit and get ‘accustomed’ to being at home for two years, what would happen to them psychologically.

They knew that unprecedented QE and resulting ATHs in the stock markets would enable the boomer generation to weigh up being arsed anymore and opt out to retire early instead.

They knew that high inflation and resulting higher taxes and cost of living to squeezing actual workers dry, would cause them to drop hours below tax thresholds as working more just wouldn’t be worth it.

They knew that the last of the minimum wage families forced on tax credits would realise how better off they were and wouldn’t be ever returning.

Yes governments can be incompetent. They certainly aren’t on this mass organised scale however. This is a planned, controlled demolition of the global economy over the next few years, to bring in the replacement societal structure and government control needed for the next phase.

 

[Noallegiance]

29 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

They knew exactly what they’ve done, this isn’t anything to do with incompetence as it’s been replicated across all the western countries. 

They knew that by taking out the historical manufacturing base of the whole economy and the reliance on cheap imported labour, would backfire further down the road when those not eligible for benefits disappeared.

They knew by making the majority of the populous sit and get ‘accustomed’ to being at home for two years, what would happen to them psychologically.

They knew that unprecedented QE and resulting ATHs in the stock markets would enable the boomer generation to weigh up being arsed anymore and opt out to retire early instead.

They knew that high inflation and resulting higher taxes and cost of living to squeezing actual workers dry, would cause them to drop hours below tax thresholds as working more just wouldn’t be worth it.

They knew that the last of the minimum wage families forced on tax credits would realise how better off they were and wouldn’t be ever returning.

Yes governments can be incompetent. They certainly aren’t on this mass organised scale however. This is a planned, controlled demolition of the global economy over the next few years, to bring in the replacement societal structure and government control needed for the next phase.

 

Part of me wants to agree. All governments have done the same.

Another part of me has Ben Kenobi ringing in my ears.

"Who's the more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows?"

[Gin]

12 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Part of me wants to agree. All governments have done the same.

Another part of me has Ben Kenobi ringing in my ears.

"Who's the more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows?"

Well why wouldn`t a fool follow the money tree for 2 decades or more. It is a third of most peoples adult lives .

The Goverments of western economies felt as if they were enlightened prophets at times , esepcially if luck followed them , and people have short memories too .

I think to believe it is all a conspiracy is just plain nuts . Life on this world is far to chaotic even if it is planned chaos .

 

 

[Noallegiance]

New tax rise fears as Sunak plans rules to slash borrowing (msn.com)

[Chewing Grass]

19 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

New tax rise fears as Sunak plans rules to slash borrowing (msn.com)

They have destroyed the economy by playing politics with Covid, the pandemic that never was.

[Shamone]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

They knew exactly what they’ve done, this isn’t anything to do with incompetence as it’s been replicated across all the western countries. 

They knew that by taking out the historical manufacturing base of the whole economy and the reliance on cheap imported labour, would backfire further down the road when those not eligible for benefits disappeared.

They knew by making the majority of the populous sit and get ‘accustomed’ to being at home for two years, what would happen to them psychologically.

They knew that unprecedented QE and resulting ATHs in the stock markets would enable the boomer generation to weigh up being arsed anymore and opt out to retire early instead.

They knew that high inflation and resulting higher taxes and cost of living to squeezing actual workers dry, would cause them to drop hours below tax thresholds as working more just wouldn’t be worth it.

They knew that the last of the minimum wage families forced on tax credits would realise how better off they were and wouldn’t be ever returning.

Yes governments can be incompetent. They certainly aren’t on this mass organised scale however. This is a planned, controlled demolition of the global economy over the next few years, to bring in the replacement societal structure and government control needed for the next phase.

 

Post of the week.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Shamone said:

Post of the week.

I commend you. Well written and I echo your post.

[Gin]

Peoples energy..our power supplier gone pop too..

[Shamone]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

noticed today a few big empoyers out in the sticks Quorn been one are all wanting staff,obvious their eastern European destroy local wages slaves havent returned.They are even offering to bus you in from Redcar.

Factory I worked for. When I started in 2001 you could get any shift on any line you wanted. £100 bonus for signing a friend up. 2002 started filling up with Portuguese. 2004 a tsunami of Poles. Then some Albanians and dregs from fuckknowswheresville. Even some Russians. Armed police came down the line one afternoon and escorted them away.

3 shift system suddenly reduced to 2. Then the whole line closed. 2 weeks later, back to 3 shifts. All agency workers, bussed in from Worcester. No jobs advertised ever. This was 2006.

Now, place is desperate. Once again you can have any shift you like, even part time. Oh, signing bonus back too. Fucking love it.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I'm in South West London today. This has afforded me the opportunity to check up on the power supply situation. I can confirm that describing it as creaking would be an understatement.

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'm in South West London today. This has afforded me the opportunity to check up on the power supply situation. I can confirm that describing it as creaking would be an understatement.

Walked past the STOR facility near me at 2pm and the diesel generators were running, all 8 of them.