Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Majorpain]

34 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Walked past the STOR facility near me at 2pm and the diesel generators were running, all 8 of them.

Something has to charge those clean and green Tesla's!  

[ILikeCake]

On 15/09/2021 at 09:36, spongeh said:

I'm on a 12 month fix with Octopus and I have all my daily useage in a spreadsheet.

Current Deal
Electric Standing Charge 23.18p
Electric charge per Unit 16.03p
Gas Standing Charge 24.82p
Gas charge per Unit 2.76p

New 24 month Fix
Electric Standing Charge 25.08p
Electric charge per Unit 21.98p
Gas Standing Charge 26.59p
Gas charge per Unit 4.92p

Now if I plug these into my spreadsheet

This months combined Gas&Electric bill £87.00
If I was on the new prices £110.00 an extra £23 per month

If I use April 2021 usage when we actually had the heating on, Aprils combined Gas&Electric bill £129.00
If I was on the new tariffs then the bill would have been £180 an extra £51 per month

I'm lucky as I'm financially litterate and able to plan and adjust spending ahead of time, but these increases are going to decimate the finances of alot of people.

My 2nd spreadsheet is working out when PV solar become viable.

Current pricing for a 4kw solar system installed £3600
Current fix engery pricing @ 16.83p gives me a 10.76 year payback on the initial installation cost
June 2021 energy pricing @ 18.28p give me a 9.54 year payback
Current energy pricing @ 21.98p/kWh gives me an 8.03 year payback

It's looking more sensible to install solar as the weeks go on. 

I mentioned in another thread that between utility bill increases and the proposed rise in NI I'll be over a £1000 worse off next year.  Luckily I'm in the fortunate position where I can just put more into my SIPP but surely people are going feel that.

[ILikeCake]

On 15/09/2021 at 13:09, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I need to get this straight. You're talking about manufacturing industry, aren't you? What the hell are the managers doing sat at home?

Probably working on their tan like my current PM.  I work in construction, most people from PM's up over haven't been anywhere near a site in 18 months.

[JMD]

On 16/09/2021 at 14:31, kibuc said:

So many opportunities to buy here in silverland, and hardly ever an opportunity to sell...

(being nosy but) Are you buying any silvies Kibuc?

I'm always looking to add more silver miners, before all the PM's shoot (hopefully) to the moon!! Recently Hoc and Fres were mentioned here on the thread, and i did take the opportunity to add them to what i already held (crazy thing is i paid similar to what i did 3 years ago!!).

Anyhow it seems the only 'really cheap' (cheap for a reason maybe!?) silvies at present appear to be some of the juniors. I'm not averse to juniors if they have producing mines (to help de-risk for long term hold, and my preference). I wonder do you have any thoughts on these juniors: Excellon Resources; or Americas gold+silver corp?

If others here are also actively looking into the silver miners, i'd be very grateful to hear your ideas. 

(I am still trying rather desparately to get my silver/gold miner allocation split to 50/50!! ...i seem to recall @DurhamBornsaying this % might be opportune to have?)

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Shamone said:

Factory I worked for. When I started in 2001 you could get any shift on any line you wanted. £100 bonus for signing a friend up. 2002 started filling up with Portuguese. 2004 a tsunami of Poles. Then some Albanians and dregs from fuckknowswheresville. Even some Russians. Armed police came down the line one afternoon and escorted them away.

3 shift system suddenly reduced to 2. Then the whole line closed. 2 weeks later, back to 3 shifts. All agency workers, bussed in from Worcester. No jobs advertised ever. This was 2006.

Now, place is desperate. Once again you can have any shift you like, even part time. Oh, signing bonus back too. Fucking love it.

Ordinary people knew exactly how much they were being shafted.Brown and Blair imported the workers and then gave all our benefit class massive tax credits instead not to work,nuts.Without tax credits and unlimited free movement we would still be in the EU.These factories need to be first mover and boost wages to £12 minimum or they will end up unable to recruit.The macro was and is clear on this.Distribution cycles mean paying more for goods and services.

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

(being nosy but) Are you buying any silvies Kibuc?

I'm always looking to add more silver miners, before all the PM's shoot (hopefully) to the moon!! Recently Hoc and Fres were mentioned here on the thread, and i did take the opportunity to add them to what i already held (crazy thing is i paid similar to what i did 3 years ago!!).

Anyhow it seems the only 'really cheap' (cheap for a reason maybe!?) silvies at present appear to be some of the juniors. I'm not averse to juniors if they have producing mines (to help de-risk for long term hold, and my preference). I wonder do you have any thoughts on these juniors: Excellon Resources; or Americas gold+silver corp?

If others here are also actively looking into the silver miners, i'd be very grateful to hear your ideas. 

(I am still trying rather desparately to get my silver/gold miner allocation split to 50/50!! ...i seem to recall @DurhamBornsaying this % might be opportune to have?)

I'm still 100% in PMs (mostly silver with a sprinkle of gold) and I'm transitioning from mid-tiers to juniors with big exploration programs or pure explorers with defined initial deposit. Abraplata instead of First Majestic, Defiance Silver in place of Fortuna Silver (what an ironic name for a gold producer btw) etc. My biggest producers in terms of market cap are GoGold and Endeavour but I'll be slowly reducing them in favour of the likes of Canasil, Cassiar Gold, Santacruz etc, perhaps even Impact. I should know by Wed afternoon whether I'm alright or going down in flames.

I remember there was a big red flag for me regarding Americas G&S, don't remember what it was but it's enough for me to remember that it was there. I think I kind of recall it was about their Relief Canyon mine being basically the new Rainy River (before the latter got turned around for a short period by Adams). Excellon seems to be in huge legal trouble in Mexico, they lost their final appeal against a $23m payment for some historical royalties and it's no surprise their share price doesn't like it. I wouldn't want another Tahoe on my hands.

[Errol]

Alexco is very cheap at the moment.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

(being nosy but) Are you buying any silvies Kibuc?

I'm always looking to add more silver miners, before all the PM's shoot (hopefully) to the moon!! Recently Hoc and Fres were mentioned here on the thread, and i did take the opportunity to add them to what i already held (crazy thing is i paid similar to what i did 3 years ago!!).

Anyhow it seems the only 'really cheap' (cheap for a reason maybe!?) silvies at present appear to be some of the juniors. I'm not averse to juniors if they have producing mines (to help de-risk for long term hold, and my preference). I wonder do you have any thoughts on these juniors: Excellon Resources; or Americas gold+silver corp?

If others here are also actively looking into the silver miners, i'd be very grateful to hear your ideas. 

(I am still trying rather desparately to get my silver/gold miner allocation split to 50/50!! ...i seem to recall @DurhamBornsaying this % might be opportune to have?)

 

 

 

 

*definitely not advice

[kibuc]

8 minutes ago, Errol said:

Alexco is very cheap at the moment.

It is, although they're having some trouble developing Keno Hill and their streaming deal with Wheaton greatly reduces their appeal at higher silver prices. I think I should be selling when/if silver approaches 28 again.

[Barnsey]

 

[Sidd]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

(being nosy but) Are you buying any silvies Kibuc?

I'm always looking to add more silver miners, before all the PM's shoot (hopefully) to the moon!! Recently Hoc and Fres were mentioned here on the thread, and i did take the opportunity to add them to what i already held (crazy thing is i paid similar to what i did 3 years ago!!).

Anyhow it seems the only 'really cheap' (cheap for a reason maybe!?) silvies at present appear to be some of the juniors. I'm not averse to juniors if they have producing mines (to help de-risk for long term hold, and my preference). I wonder do you have any thoughts on these juniors: Excellon Resources; or Americas gold+silver corp?

If others here are also actively looking into the silver miners, i'd be very grateful to hear your ideas. 

(I am still trying rather desparately to get my silver/gold miner allocation split to 50/50!! ...i seem to recall @DurhamBornsaying this % might be opportune to have?)

I am still very heavily in PMs. 100% actually. I am down 30% from peak prices a few months back but still up around 50%, although it hurts seeing the paper profits erased so quickly. If I had a lot of money to spare at present I would love to add strongly to the miners at this point as I didnt expect them to get this cheap again at this point.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

 

I think Jan/Feb might be when the Fed stop QE without a BK so highly likely the BOE will have to be just before or just after.Sterling falling from here would really hurt.Sunak will of had the nod of course.I dont think people understand how big the structural deficit is.They have lifted enough though now where tax should increase quickly IF they can hold spending.Looks like Sunak is maybe going to set up so anyone who demands spending will have to show the taxes they want increasing.Shot across the bows to Boris and his green agenda.

[Loki]

37 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think Jan/Feb might be when the Fed stop QE without a BK

Do you mean to avert the BK, or that the BK could happen earlier and then they have to stop anyway?

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

Do you mean to avert the BK, or that the BK could happen earlier and then they have to stop anyway?

If a BK hits they will print like never seen before.Without a BK though liquidity is now near the level i expect them to stop,or at least go to very low levels.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

55 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think Jan/Feb might be when the Fed stop QE without a BK so highly likely the BOE will have to be just before or just after.Sterling falling from here would really hurt.Sunak will of had the nod of course.I dont think people understand how big the structural deficit is.They have lifted enough though now where tax should increase quickly IF they can hold spending.Looks like Sunak is maybe going to set up so anyone who demands spending will have to show the taxes they want increasing.Shot across the bows to Boris and his green agenda.

The deficit is huge. We're told the cost of £20 per week to benefits claimants is £6bn and the taxed raised by an NI increase of 1.25% for employees and employers is £12bn. The latter will raise less than they think as some will legally avoid. They're going to struggle to tax workers more because we haven't got more.

I hope your predictions come to pass on wage inflation otherwise everything falls apart. The euro looks done for on this basis. Germany has to agree to inflation or redistribution otherwise.

Ps I've done my sums and sacrificing £100 per month take home will put £177 into my pension once the NI rise comes in. That is basic rate.

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

If a BK hits they will print like never seen before.Without a BK though liquidity is now near the level i expect them to stop,or at least go to very low levels.

Thanks.  It sounds like you're not as convinced as David Hunter that it's inevitable, is that accurate?

[leonardratso]

standby, BK ahoy;

 

[planit]

U.S. Crude And Fuel Stocks Fall Below 2018 Levels

U.S. inventories of crude oil and the most used refined oil products have now fallen to below the 2018 levels, energy research service HFI Research has pointed out.

U.S. stockpiles of the so-called big 4—crude oil, gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel—are combined, below 2018 levels now, according to data compiled by HFI Research.

Low stocks of crude and fuels are a key reason why gasoline prices are not falling after the busiest driving season ended.

 

 

We are all used to the US inventory reports which show the oil inventories falling but the figures are affected by how much of that oil is turned into other products. By adding the figures together it gives the overall picture and the smoother decline above.

If this continues it can't be long before the markets start reacting. With some gulf supply still offline the next 2 readings should show a decline.

On top of that if @Cattle Prod 's predicted downturn materialises over the next few months we will get the oil price spike this year.

 

Edit: Looks like the EU have taken a leaf out of Biden's book 

EU Lawmakers Want Gazprom Investigated For Alleged Gas Market Manipulation

Surely any fine they will just add to the next bill. And this will not get them pumping quicker. Blame game starts.

[DurhamBorn]

55 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The deficit is huge. We're told the cost of £20 per week to benefits claimants is £6bn and the taxed raised by an NI increase of 1.25% for employees and employers is £12bn. The latter will raise less than they think as some will legally avoid. They're going to struggle to tax workers more because we haven't got more.

I hope your predictions come to pass on wage inflation otherwise everything falls apart. The euro looks done for on this basis. Germany has to agree to inflation or redistribution otherwise.

Ps I've done my sums and sacrificing £100 per month take home will put £177 into my pension once the NI rise comes in. That is basic rate.

My partner is now putting everything into her SIPP over £12.5k.She will now get back 14x the NI increase.She has also "moved" in with my daughter so im claiming the 25% Council tax rebate and that equals the extra NI.My dad is also going to get very infirm over the next few weeks and we will claim attendance allowance,hes going to give it to my kids along with what i am to cover extra into their SIPPs to cut their tax.

[Hancock]

For those with SSE -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/17/sse-close-split-activist-pressure/

SSE, the energy giant, is close to being split into two separate blue-chip companies following pressure from Wall Street activist Elliott.

The Telegraph has learnt that SSE, chaired by former civil service head Sir John Manzoni, could announce the plans in the coming weeks at the company's interim results. 

Insiders cautioned that the split was yet to be finalised and the board could yet decide to sell to one of the businesses to private equity or scrap the plans altogether.  

Elliott is understood to have amassed a stake worth more than £500m in SSE, making it a top five investor.

The US investor, founded by billionaire Paul Singer, has been in talks with SSE’s board to split the company’s legacy wholesale networks business from its growth renewables operations for more than a year, according to sources close to the situation.

It is understood that other institutional investors are broadly supportive of the plans.

Founded in 1998 following the merger of Scottish Hydro-Electric and Southern Electric, SSE sold its retail arm in January 2020 to OVO Energy.

Last month it agreed to sell a 33pc stake in gas network company SGN to a consortium of investors including Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.

SSE uses some of the steady income stream from the networks division to fund growth in its renewables arm.

The company is aiming to triple its renewable energy output by 2030. However, Elliott is believed to have convinced SSE’s board of the merits of a separate listing that would allow the new entity to raise capital for investors to fund its expansion.

Elliott, known for its outspoken campaigns to pressure boards into a change of strategic direction, previously pursued a similar strategy against the board of EDP-Energias de Portugal. 

The Portuguese company sold a stake in its electricity distribution unit and used the proceeds to invest in renewable energy. Its shares have since risen sharply.  

Elliott remains locked in a battle with the board of another FTSE 100 firm, GlaxoSmithKline. The US hedge firm has questioned whether boss Dame Emma Walmsley is the right person to lead the business after it also splits in two. It also wants GSK to consider selling its consumer division to private equity rather than pursue a separate listing.

A spokesman for SSE said: “We do not comment on market speculation. As stated in May, SSE intends to update on its capex and investment plans in November.”

[DurhamBorn]

59 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks.  It sounds like you're not as convinced as David Hunter that it's inevitable, is that accurate?

I think US bubble stocks will go down 70% inflation adjusted this cycle,bonds,big losses,but im not convinced everything is going down by huge amounts,unless there is a black swan in the derivatives market where massive amounts of corporate debt implodes.

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

I think US bubble stocks will go down 70% inflation adjusted this cycle,bonds,big losses,but im not convinced everything is going down by huge amounts,unless there is a black swan in the derivatives market where massive amounts of corporate debt implodes.

Thanks, I think I've heard David mention derivatives in YouTube interviews.  Not too worried either way, these are long term holds. 

[nirvana]

8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

standby, BK ahoy;

at least he's not saying Silver to 50 bucks this time 

I reckon it's going sub 20 bucks.....TWT 

tis interesting the amount of times we've 'joked' about DXY and yet here it is above 93 like I predicted and that's why some are getting fukked on the shiny shinys.....

you're ignoring the 'roadmap'  or perhaps it's a temporary 'traffic jam'? 

[Barnsey]

This is the best analysis of Evergrande and contagion risk I've come across, very long thread but worth it. HSBC and miners at risk.

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/17/russia-accused-rigging-gas-prices-undermine-britains-economic/

Well they need to blame someone forgetting that their past actions made this certain.Notice now they are in talks with Centrica after spending more than a decade stopping them making enough profit to invest.Notice also how once cycles turn lots of other things are affected.Fert plants down means less C02 for the food industry etc.Inflation slowly entering each sector.

Lovely.