Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think US bubble stocks will go down 70% inflation adjusted this cycle,bonds,big losses,but im not convinced everything is going down by huge amounts,unless there is a black swan in the derivatives market where massive amounts of corporate debt implodes.

His bust prediction timeframe is always 6-9 months away.

[dnb24]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fert plants down means less C02 for the food industry

Dad in trucking business- backlog in pork due to no CO2 to stun them.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

This is the best analysis of Evergrande and contagion risk I've come across, very long thread but worth it. HSBC and miners at risk.

 

Just read that this morning. 

 

Absolutely superb thread. Would urge everyone to read it.

 

Twitter has some real gold amongst all the shite. 

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

....

Twitter has some real gold amongst all the shite. 

And some excellent miners on this thread to extract it!  Amazing really.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

This is the best analysis of Evergrande and contagion risk I've come across, very long thread but worth it. HSBC and miners at risk.

 

"It's the balance sheet stupid"........

"Stronger balance sheet players will snap land and construction sites. SOEs will snap some assets".  

I've mentioned the emerging importance of the oft ignored balance sheet over the P&L E's for some time.  And that, on the average, is as much a country/regional play as it is a specific company risk. 

Many well known companies in the US and elsewhere have had their balance sheets hollowed out.  Many, stripped of high asset values, especially intangibles (even just goodwill!), have negative equity.

And yet they still have the bid.  But when it turns.......and how much will go private?

[Shamone]

20 hours ago, Shamone said:

Factory I worked for. When I started in 2001 you could get any shift on any line you wanted. £100 bonus for signing a friend up. 2002 started filling up with Portuguese. 2004 a tsunami of Poles. Then some Albanians and dregs from fuckknowswheresville. Even some Russians. Armed police came down the line one afternoon and escorted them away.

3 shift system suddenly reduced to 2. Then the whole line closed. 2 weeks later, back to 3 shifts. All agency workers, bussed in from Worcester. No jobs advertised ever. This was 2006.

Now, place is desperate. Once again you can have any shift you like, even part time. Oh, signing bonus back too. Fucking love it.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

This is the best analysis of Evergrande and contagion risk I've come across, very long thread but worth it. HSBC and miners at risk.

 

Oh dear? 

I sold off many HKD positions last week but couldn't let my lovely cement producers go who are currently on a patiently waited for tear. 

Conch for example up 24% these last two months and up 1.85% on Friday against the short term trend. Odd but maybe time to take profits.

What's clear though is there are some great opportunities if things have to clear but remain open for investor business.

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, Shamone said:

 

Yep the same up here,almost every employer looking for staff,the lower paid high staff level companies are really struggling.Before when there was an endless supply of EU who didnt have to pay council tax etc living 10 to a house employers could all pay NMW + maybe a token 30p.They didnt need to compete on pay or even treating people better than shit on their shoes.

Thats in full reverse now.To get workers employers will have to compete on pay and treat people well,and keep improving as they are now in a race.There is a lag,but they need to balance increasing wages and passing on with higher prices to customers.Getting it wrong will be business failure.

People are about to discover what a distribution cycle is and i doubt anyone will of heard that term anywhere for a long long time.Those who consume will have to pay more,through work,or savings for the same amount of comfort.Workers are gaining now,but the lag will see prices suck that back.Our work is to try to be in assets that can at least keep pace and hopefully leverage that a little bit.

I saw a job yesterday in my local Asda .Nightshift shelf stacker £12 an hour 20 hours.Thats a level where someone can get right up to the tax allowance and only work 2.5 nights a week.Those who saw things coming and have invested etc and have some ISA income and or no debt can have a nice little life.

If i took that job for instance id probably have the highest income in my close,with the least hours (from those who work) and pay the least tax.Positioning as always in life is crucial.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

The dam inches ever higher.......... 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep the same up here,almost every employer looking for staff,the lower paid high staff level companies are really struggling.Before when there was an endless supply of EU who didnt have to pay council tax etc living 10 to a house employers could all pay NMW + maybe a token 30p.They didnt need to compete on pay or even treating people better than shit on their shoes.

Thats in full reverse now.To get workers employers will have to compete on pay and treat people well,and keep improving as they are now in a race.There is a lag,but they need to balance increasing wages and passing on with higher prices to customers.Getting it wrong will be business failure.

People are about to discover what a distribution cycle is and i doubt anyone will of heard that term anywhere for a long long time.Those who consume will have to pay more,through work,or savings for the same amount of comfort.Workers are gaining now,but the lag will see prices suck that back.Our work is to try to be in assets that can at least keep pace and hopefully leverage that a little bit.

I saw a job yesterday in my local Asda .Nightshift shelf stacker £12 an hour 20 hours.Thats a level where someone can get right up to the tax allowance and only work 2.5 nights a week.Those who saw things coming and have invested etc and have some ISA income and or no debt can have a nice little life.

If i took that job for instance id probably have the highest income in my close,with the least hours (from those who work) and pay the least tax.Positioning as always in life is crucial.

 

Enjoyed reading that post. Good to see workers getting rewarded. I think that nightshift should be paid more. It damages health. £14ph for shelf stacking would be reasonable. To me nightshift should be at least 25% uplift and more like 33%.

[DurhamBorn]

50 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Enjoyed reading that post. Good to see workers getting rewarded. I think that nightshift should be paid more. It damages health. £14ph for shelf stacking would be reasonable. To me nightshift should be at least 25% uplift and more like 33%.

Yes and i think its just the start.However thats only 20 hours and bang on with the tax allowance.Better than the £11 an hour on nights in local poor factories for instance for a clean job.Employers are now in a race.Not just pay.The crapper the job the more they will have to pay to attract people.The key is to watch if the government move on letting in more EU.Given they need wage inflation though i doubt it.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Enjoyed reading that post. Good to see workers getting rewarded. I think that nightshift should be paid more. It damages health. £14ph for shelf stacking would be reasonable. To me nightshift should be at least 25% uplift and more like 33%.

£25k for shelf stacking in the NE with the cheapest living costs in the UK is pretty darn good if you ask me. Wage inflation is going to kill smaller businesses.

I'd be so much better off doing steady fixed nights rather than working in passenger transport where I start work from 0220 and can finish at that time on lates, and everything in-between. My body is wrecked (especially digestive system) and only in my mid thirties.

Really makes you think doesn't it?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

38 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

£25k for shelf stacking in the NE with the cheapest living costs in the UK is pretty darn good if you ask me. Wage inflation is going to kill smaller businesses.

I'd be so much better off doing steady fixed nights rather than working in passenger transport where I start work from 0220 and can finish at that time on lates, and everything in-between. My body is wrecked (especially digestive system) and only in my mid thirties.

Really makes you think doesn't it?

Mixed shifts are worse than pure nights. I'd agree that £25k full time would be excellent for stacking shelves in the north east on days. £20-22k would be decent. On nights £30k.

[Hancock]

8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Mixed shifts are worse than pure nights. I'd agree that £25k full time would be excellent for stacking shelves in the north east on days. £20-22k would be decent. On nights £30k.

Surely its a job that they'll be able to produce robots/conveyor belts to do it once wages get too high. 

Agree with what you say about changing shifts, when i've all of a sudden got to do a week or 2 on nights it destroys my mind and body.

[Errol]

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

£25k for shelf stacking in the NE with the cheapest living costs in the UK is pretty darn good if you ask me. Wage inflation is going to kill smaller businesses.

I'd be so much better off doing steady fixed nights rather than working in passenger transport where I start work from 0220 and can finish at that time on lates, and everything in-between. My body is wrecked (especially digestive system) and only in my mid thirties.

Really makes you think doesn't it?

When i was in the prison service there were lads who worked permanent nights (7 on 7 off) because it meant no prisoner contact and sitting on your arse watching tv all night. 

 

The consequences for their health were shocking. Most put weight on, quite a few developed diabetes and it always seemed to be the nights boys who got cancer.

 

We used to (half) jokingly call it the death shift. 

 

All anecdotal at the time, but was enough to make me read up on it and discover it was backed up by the science. 

 

Never did another night shift. 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Anyone fancy a flutter? 😛

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

My body is wrecked (especially digestive system) and only in my mid thirties.

I didn't fully appreciate how bad my work was on my health until I stopped and changed, funnily to something more physical.  People like me would look for expensive treatments, pills, etc when the real solution was much more basic, but, in a way, harder.  One reason I call my past jobs toxic.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Surely its a job that they'll be able to produce robots/conveyor belts to do it once wages get too high. 

That's going to be an interesting dynamic seeing as the past approach was to employ more people (e.g. automatic to manual cash washing).  Will local supplying firms appear, will our balance of trade suffer, how will it be financed, impact on owner cash flows, etc?

[Hancock]

34 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

When i was in the prison service there were lads who worked permanent nights (7 on 7 off) because it meant no prisoner contact and sitting on your arse watching tv all night. 

Wouldn't they just bring in a quilt and sleep from 10-6.

I had the pleasure of spending some time inside Northallerton (maybe you worked there) would be a cushy job to get on nights if you had the ability to get 6 hours sleep on the job.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

I didn't fully appreciate how bad my work was on my health until I stopped and changed, funnily to something more physical.  People like me would look for expensive treatments, pills, etc when the real solution was much more basic, but, in a way, harder.  One reason I call my past jobs toxic.

Truly healthy diet with no junk food, exercise, sleep, and avoid stress ..... sounds so easy doesn't it.

But when fighting for every pound to raise a family, its bordering on the impossible.

[Hancock]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think US bubble stocks will go down 70% inflation adjusted this cycle,bonds,big losses,but im not convinced everything is going down by huge amounts,unless there is a black swan in the derivatives market where massive amounts of corporate debt implodes.

In essence David Hunter is saying when the FED tightens faster than what the markets think we get a crash.

I take it you now believe the markets are wholly prepared for the FED to tighten faster so we won't get a crash.

 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

That's going to be an interesting dynamic seeing as the past approach was to employ more people (e.g. automatic to manual cash washing).  Will local supplying firms appear, will our balance of trade suffer, how will it be financed, impact on owner cash flows, etc?

Manual car washing is the strangest one, i'd sooner pay £2 and get it done by a machine than £7 for a dozen Muzzers to clean it.

But supermarkets have been quick to automate their checkouts, would obviously take investment to redesign their stores but if its profitable it's inevitable.

 

[Gin]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I didn't fully appreciate how bad my work was on my health until I stopped and changed, funnily to something more physical.  People like me would look for expensive treatments, pills, etc when the real solution was much more basic, but, in a way, harder.  One reason I call my past jobs toxic.

I am a sole trader. I have manhandled furniture for 38 years . I am 66 years of age . I have not made a fortune and the wonderful guys that worked with me stayed with me for for over 35 years . We used to have conversations about our backs giving way or ending up with a slipped disc etc. Even though I have had three hernia ops which were a result of too much testosterone and ego.  (It sometimes happens when working with friends and wanting to keep your end up during a heavy working day ).

I would not change it for the world. I realise that heavy lifting/ manual labour when done right is good for the soul and body.

Heavy work is therapeutic .

[spongeh]

23 hours ago, ILikeCake said:

I mentioned in another thread that between utility bill increases and the proposed rise in NI I'll be over a £1000 worse off next year.  Luckily I'm in the fortunate position where I can just put more into my SIPP but surely people are going feel that.

Same here, but in my household spreadsheet I'm also factoring in 10% increases across the board.

Council tax up from April
Water rates up 10% from April
Home insurance up 10% at renewal
Car & motorbike insurance up 10% at renewal
Car & motorbike tax up 10% at renewal
Mobile phone up 10% in April
Gym payment up 10% in April
Daughters pocket money up 33% from January 

Now individually each one of these might be £2-£3 each per month, but added up it'll probably be another £30-£40 per month, on top of £70ish NI and £30-£40 gas/electric ... so I'm planning on being £130 - £150 poorer per month next year.

£1800 per year