Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[janch]

4 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Any thoughts on Thungela Resources?

Keep hearing chatter of how it's making money hand over fist and that it could pay a £1 divi per share.

I have bought a few of their shares lately.

I have also bought some.  I was given 4 shares when AAL offloaded it and stupidly sold them (when AJ Bell had a month of fee-free selling) but the share price has risen steadily ever since so I've just bought some more..........here's hoping

[planit]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In laymens terms,whats the sun spots thing all about?

 

The sun is colder (radiating less) when there are less sunspots. A sun spot is a bit like a storm on the surface of the sun.

 

What they are saying is currently we have really low sunspot activity which is still leading to all the glaciers and sea ice melting.

In a couple of years DOSBODERS think when the sun spot activity ramps up we will have a 3 degree increase in temperature and 2 meters higher sea level.

[planit]

I am hoping the final melt up has started, second leg of the stock rotation.

There are so many companies at really low valuations at the moment (all the ones talked about here) that they could really drive the indices higher even if the tech stocks have already topped out.

 

David Hunter keeps upping his target so we will probably never reach it but 4800 seems pretty easy to hit.

 

Only thing checking my confidence is I can't see any way of them stopping taper/printing without bad figures in the economy which will push stock markets down. We want to have our cake and also eat it. Perhaps the infrastructure spending in UK (energy) and US (everything) will take the place of the printing.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I reckon we could be on the cusp of the long predicted melt up towards S&P 500. Reason being is that we appear to be recovering from the Evergrande pull back. A lot of "our shares" have been doing well, especially oilies. Easy to see the telecoms joining in and the miners are possible. Confidence will return quickly. If the tech giants regain their recent highs then the indices are well on their way to new records.

A lot could go wrong with this hypothesis. It just seems like the probable direction of travel unless there is an external shock.

@planit beat me to it!

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I reckon we could be on the cusp of the long predicted melt up towards S&P 500. Reason being is that we appear to be recovering from the Evergrande pull back. A lot of "our shares" have been doing well, especially oilies. Easy to see the telecoms joining in and the miners are possible. Confidence will return quickly. If the tech giants regain their recent highs then the indices are well on their way to new records.

A lot could go wrong with this hypothesis. It just seems like the probable direction of travel unless there is an external shock.

@planit beat me to it!

It's over when the last bear turns bull.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Time for the obligatory @DurhamBorn post about pension funds selling these at the bottom. A quick check and my cheapest BP purchase was at 191.78p in October last year. Repsol was 5.224 euros on the same day. Didn't buy any Gazprom until November at 4.892 USD. Even the earlier purchases of RDSB are around even now and up when you average in later purchases. Then you have divvies on top.

The pension funds going woke with necessary industries is going to cost a lot of ordinary workers.

Indeed,it disgusts me what goes on.However its from government down.Rewarding failure by thieving from the working poor.My son is in NEST,has no choice,gets a 100% employer match on 5% at least,but that filth in charge costing him and his workmates flogging on at 5am every day their retirement.Luckily his old man and grandfather backed up the truck.

Interesting today i worked out Repsol has made me more than it cost for all my Spanish Club 18 to 30 holidays and spending cost in my younger days,however like the famous Club 18 to 30 advert stated "one swallow doesnt make a summer" 

[TNS]

i averaged into bp so around 270 ish. dividends alone in last 18 months have been around 10% of the total investment, i'll take that for a few more years happily! 

[Loki]

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

[TNS]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

Just let mine pool to be honest and whack them into the next buy

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

Just let mine pool to be honest and whack them into the next buy

That's all I do, just wondered if I was missing a trick 

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

The only commentators that get heard, are the ones calling for impending doom.

Still think there could be a dip sometime soon ... if there is then i'll buy in. If not then i'll come up with a plan B.

Thinking about buy half a house and borrow the rest, and rent it out for if i ever come back to Blighty, then i'll be willing to take more risks with the rest. Against my ideology, but fucking people over seems to be the way of the Englishman!

 

 

It’s always been about geting the serf to pay for your castle 

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

I let them mount up in my SIPP and add to whatever i want whenever and sometimes topping up where i have shaved some profits in places.My ISA divs i now withdraw and live off mostly.Once i can access SIPP il stop taking from ISA and re-invest but take from SIPP etc

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My ISA divs i now withdraw and live off mostly.

Living the dream, I hope to get there one day 

[Castlevania]

34 minutes ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

HL is £1.50 to reinvest dividends. I have it set to reinvest anything above £100. It’s a bit of a pain to be honest, as I have a lot of stuff I’m happy to reinvest and a lot that I’d rather have the money. Thus a mad dash to cancel the reinvestment and take the money around the 10th of the month.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

HL is £1.50 to reinvest dividends. I have it set to reinvest anything above £100. It’s a bit of a pain to be honest, as I have a lot of stuff I’m happy to reinvest and a lot that I’d rather have the money. Thus a mad dash to cancel the reinvestment and take the money around the 10th of the month.

Thanks I totally forgot about that setting, I set it to just collect dividends when I first opened the account and was still learning.  

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Systemic collapse is coming and then I suspect all hell will break loose later in the 20's with both hard right and left rising

Perhaps this is the issue, nobody wants this `poison chalice` and so all the opposition parties are putting up unelectable leaders....although I think Labour has taken this a little too far with Starmer! :-) :-) :-)

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Indeed,it disgusts me what goes on.However its from government down.Rewarding failure by thieving from the working poor.My son is in NEST,has no choice,gets a 100% employer match on 5% at least,but that filth in charge costing him and his workmates flogging on at 5am every day their retirement.Luckily his old man and grandfather backed up the truck.

Interesting today i worked out Repsol has made me more than it cost for all my Spanish Club 18 to 30 holidays and spending cost in my younger days,however like the famous Club 18 to 30 advert stated "one swallow doesnt make a summer" 

Wish I could remember what mine cost...all I can remember is getting off the plane at a sunny Ibiza, and then getting back off at a rainy Gatwick...The rest?....who knows, but I am sure I would be reminded if I ever had a career in politics :-) :-) :-)

[HousePriceMania]

Who say this coming....

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/21/the-fed-likely-will-wait-until-november-for-taper-announcement-cnbc-survey-indicates.html

 

The Fed likely will wait until November for taper announcement, CNBC survey indicates

 

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-say-tapering-may-soon-be-warranted-and-pencil-in-an-earlier-rate-hike-11632333636?siteid=bullytweet

 

 

They're basically waiting for the next collapse so they dont have to.

Fill your boots people.

 

[23rdian]

3 hours ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

If you set these to auto the fee should be much lower than a normal trading fee on many brokers. 99p in my case IIRC.

Of course these are usually LSE shares. Not had any overseas ones compatible.

[NogintheNog]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

4 hours ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

I let them mount up in my SIPP and add to whatever i want whenever and sometimes topping up where i have shaved some profits in places.My ISA divs i now withdraw and live off mostly.Once i can access SIPP il stop taking from ISA and re-invest but take from SIPP etc

That's the way I play it as I already have access to my SIPP. My SIPP is pretty well fully invested so reinvestment is not an issue at the moment with only a few hundred quid in cash. I only work (very!) part time. Just over £5K a year earnings and take the difference to the £12.5K tax allowance, so £7.5K tax free from the SIPP, selling stocks and then making sure I plonk £20K into my ISA every year from cash assets.

Still have 2 untouched pensions that are with Scottish Widows and Aviva, will be harder to get into those once I get the state pension as there won't be much of a gap between that and the tax allowance.

Re-investment is fine if you have very large dividends coming in (I'm with AJ Bell), but for smaller amounts I don't think it is worth it. Let it build and just buy one stock.

[Castlevania]

14 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

No real view other than that us shale is no place for cumbersome foreign giants like Shell, Equinor or BHP. You need to be nimble, move rigs fast and have landmen like sharks. I can just see EOG drilling three wells while a well head purchase order works it's way though Shell accounts departments. It's also a mature asset, good luck to COP

 

I’m assuming COP have assets nearby. Go down the factory route. 

[DurhamBorn]

https://boereport.com/2021/09/21/column-looming-european-energy-crisis-a-lesson-in-averages-that-wont-soon-be-forgotten/

I still dont think the government understands the disaster.No doubt their answer will be to increase handouts to the benny brigade forcing up costs more and more on those just above welfare level.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I still dont think the government understands the disaster.No doubt their answer will be to increase handouts to the benny brigade forcing up costs more and more on those just above welfare level.

I have worked on site with multiple trades this week, all colours, all greeds. Seems to me everyone is aware and everyone is a tad angry.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have worked on site with multiple trades this week, all colours, all greeds. Seems to me everyone is aware and everyone is a tad angry.

Same. Trades, management types, sub contractors all saying they are just waiting for it to go tits up. Heard the same from a ground working company 5weeks ago, different job location. Spoke today to a chippy gaffer who told me 2 of the jobs his firm were due to start have been put on hold ( medium sized jobs).

Wait till CIS gets scrapped. Demotivation on speed. Even shitter builds me thinks.