Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[belfastchild]

Just now, jamtomorrow said:

Not hard to stockpile diesel tho - 55 gal drums and hand pumps still easy to come by.

20l home heating drums are around 1.50 to 2 quid each here - empty hypo drums sold by farmers. The cheap red topped plastic syphons are handy for these.

Get yourself a 5 litre black plastic one of the type they sell in halfords. Fill that from the big drums and be seen by neighbours putting that in your car instead of having a lot.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Not hard to stockpile diesel tho - 55 gal drums and hand pumps still easy to come by.

I've got four 20lt jerry cans for fuel for work, etc.  Safely stowed.  I add conditioner to the petrol.  May add some more cans.  Does diesel have the same issue as petrol storing it for long periods?

A bit of a digression but I spent yesterday researching back up power.  LPG, petrol, and diesel generators and electrical alternatives.  Maybe I should run a diesel gen on red diesel?  My current plan is to go the battery route for my freezers, etc.  I can charge these from the mains, solar and/or a gen.  Not cheap though and gel or lithium?

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looks like most coal that can be switched on against gas is,so heavy oil will be next.Government doesnt get it yet though,they think we just need more windmills missin the point.RR racing up,market sniffs small nuclear coming i think.

Saw the news last night about China stopping building coal power plants overseas. Was touted as a green issue.
First thought in my head was that China wants to keep the coal for itself.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

All that hot oil and gas money?!!!

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

And Brazil ... with more rises coming ....  pity their inflation isn't just temporary like ours.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-raises-interest-rates-signals-third-big-hike-next-month-2021-09-22/

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

I've got four 20lt jerry cans for fuel for work, etc.  Safely stowed.  I add conditioner to the petrol.  May add some more cans.  Does diesel have the same issue as petrol storing it for long periods?

As long as you keep water out of it, no.
During the summer I finished a project to have up to 4 years of home heating oil (2 tanks) at any one time and although they recommend max of 2 years open air storage (and water does get in, sink to bottom and apparently microbes start eating at the biodiesel part), I'll chance it.

[Heart's Ease]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

 

We had a chat about this on the Brexit thread. Just reread what I wrote. Reads ok! 

I should have mentioned Health Education England also have a key role in workforce planning, as the quango between DHSC and the service.

[Heart's Ease]

2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

As long as you keep water out of it, no.
During the summer I finished a project to have up to 4 years of home heating oil (2 tanks) at any one time and although they recommend max of 2 years open air storage (and water does get in, sink to bottom and apparently microbes start eating at the biodiesel part), I'll chance it.

From running a motorhome/camper over the winter I learned to keep the tank full of diesel, otherwise cold weather would condense moisture in the inside of the tank. There is a drain tap on the fuel filter in Ducato's so you can bleed the water off.  This happened once in summer due to a cold snap and near empty tank.  Some Moho owners also are suspicious of supermarket diesel for being heavy on the water but I don't know if that is an urban myth.

I don't know how you'd solve it with a fixed tank as you describe?

[Castlevania]

28 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

My wife tells me she is struggling to get sugar.

Has anyone any thoughts on Tate and Lyle ?

Dividend 4.37&

PE: 13.04

They don’t make sugar anymore. 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If you're selling the riskier stocks shouldn't you sell those in the red as well as those in the black? I'm sort of playing devils advocate here. Unless there are compelling reasons why the losers are more likely to gain now. You didn't expect them all to be winners anyway. Of course if the losers are now near worthless then it is moot.

Fair question and I toy with it weekly.

I've left the ones in the red as I'm unwilling to simply take the loss ahead of a melt up.

If they look like they're staying down when the whole market is flying then they're lost. At that point I'll sell what's left (hoping some make it back toward break even) and feed it in to the old faithfuls.

Not talking mega money anyway but I just can't hit the sell button yet as I believe we're at the start of the melt up and their value may be partly saved.

Or......I'm full of shit scrambling for justification for my actions. It's like I'm my own market!

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It is probably this link from 2008. Few know about it and many would be angry if they did. One of those things that the media has never picked up on. Even doctors might not have the brassneck to reduce training further at this time.

https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

I defo heard it fairly recently but maybe it was just mentioned as part of the story about medical students being asked to defer a year and/or the 21% increase in applications.  Anyways,, like the apparent reduction in beds, odd to the layperson.

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They don’t make sugar anymore. 

Who does ?

[Harley]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Fair question and I toy with it weekly.

I've left the ones in the red as I'm unwilling to simply take the loss ahead of a melt up.

If they look like they're staying down when the whole market is flying then they're lost. At that point I'll sell what's left (hoping some make it back toward break even) and feed it in to the old faithfuls.

Not talking mega money anyway but I just can't hit the sell button yet as I believe we're at the start of the melt up and their value may be partly saved.

Or......I'm full of shit scrambling for justification for my actions. It's like I'm my own market!

My biggest vice is paying attention to the colour, but I do, and will not doubt always do.  One exception I should have followed this last year was drilling down and maybe trading out of a loss using the daily data.  I could have added to some positions in say TUI, CARD, SGC, etc when they were oversold, traded the bounce, and then exited at a lower overall loss.  But then I could also have sold at a loss and invested in better opportunities!  I've been selling down many weakening stocks to what I normally use a my first ladder amount in a stock so I stay in the game at the cost of some loss that I can bear (although it soon adds up across several stocks!).

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

  Some Moho owners also are suspicious of supermarket diesel for being heavy on the water but I don't know if that is an urban myth.

I've heard people make such claims, but the fuel comes from the same refineries, there is no alternate source of low quality fuel for supermarkets.

Thats what logic tells me anyway.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Some Moho owners also are suspicious of supermarket diesel for being heavy on the water but I don't know if that is an urban myth.

I also heard that - better to buy from the main producers for fresher petrol.  Is that true?  And how big a deal?  Much of my Stihl equipment is sensitive to even mildly bad petrol.  The dealer always used to say it was the mix, I'd laugh given the timing, and be proven wrong.  

[TNS]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who does ?

 

Global players

Rank	Company	Country
1.	Südzucker AG	Germany
2.	Cosan SA Industria & Comercio	Brazil
3.	British Sugar Plc	UK
4.	Tereos Internacional SA	France

[Option5]

Norway raises key interest rate from 0% to 0.25%.

Planning next rise in December.

3 more rises next year. March, June and September/December

Aiming for 1.75% by the end of 2024

[Noallegiance]

26 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Some Moho owners also are suspicious of supermarket diesel for being heavy on the water but I don't know if that is an urban myth.

I don't know how you'd solve it with a fixed tank as you describe?

Multiple mechanics in my area say to stay clear of Tesco fuel.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Option5 said:

Norway raises key interest rate from 0% to 0.25%.

Planning next rise in December.

3 more rises next year. March, June and September/December

Aiming for 1.75% by the end of 2024

Good time to buy Norwegian Currency ?

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Good time to buy Norwegian Currency ?

It's risen by 0.5% against the pound this morning.

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Multiple mechanics in my area say to stay clear of Tesco fuel.

In the days of throttle body injection you could see the gum build-up from shit fuel. BIL was a car mechanic and he knew where people bought petrol from by the state of their fuel delivery system. I've never used the cheap stuff and I'm sticking with E5 usually Shell.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Option5 said:

It's risen by 0.5% against the pound this morning.

I saw that.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I could be tied to a chair with Krankie ramming a red hot poker up my backside demanding the password so she can sell my BAT and id just laugh.I sold them above £50 after decades and missed them like crazy.Getting them back at £25 was wonderful and il never sell 1 share in them again.If they ever do go to hell im going with them.

Yeah, I get your thinking, but I am more considering supply chain breakdowns in a worst case scenario where, say, 3% of those jabbed die this winter and the rest realise they are fucked.  Who's going to go to work?  To deliver the cigs?  To staff WH Smith?  

Oilies, meanwhile, will be the last leg to fall.

 

I told you I was a doomster.

[belfastchild]

18 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

From running a motorhome/camper over the winter I learned to keep the tank full of diesel, otherwise cold weather would condense moisture in the inside of the tank. There is a drain tap on the fuel filter in Ducato's so you can bleed the water off.  This happened once in summer due to a cold snap and near empty tank.  Some Moho owners also are suspicious of supermarket diesel for being heavy on the water but I don't know if that is an urban myth.

I don't know how you'd solve it with a fixed tank as you describe?

Its a pita, there are special 'sponges' you can buy which you sink to the bottom and they absorb the water but not the diesel (they arent sponge but cant remember off the top of my head). But I would think they would always leave some residual. When I drained my tank I just used some old t-shirts to soak the most of it out and left it empty in sunshine to evaporate the rest. Was some sort of scum on the bottom and wiped that with some old cloths as well.

Same drain tap on the transits! Thanks for the post, only just remembered I do the same with the camper so it has a full tank of 3 year old diesel! Have to start draining that out and mixing with the newer stuff in the other car.

 

[Castlevania]

34 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who does ?

Associated British Foods still do. Although they’re a conglomerate, so you get stuff like Primark, Twinings and Kingsmill all thrown in.