Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58636467.amp

 

The sound of pennies dropping........... 

The Media and the Bedwetters wanted Lockdowns and Furlough so now it's time to pay the Piper.

[janch]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

But another lesson, something I did flirt with at the time, was to trade their 2020 bounce to exit evens. 

Yes, being a newbie investor, it never crossed my mind!  I held on and then got fed up and sold the likes of GOG/SGC and CNA.  However I've just bought some more AAL so it's an experiment to see if I can recoup some of the recent loss there.  However it's a bit of an experiment as if China really is in trouble it may never get back to what it was

When I look back on the last couple of years, I really have learnt a huge amount and without this thread I doubt I would have even started and I'd be looking at my cash ISA and worrying about the paltry interest rate when inflation is taking off bigly So many thanks to @DurhamBornfor this invaluable education.

I still have most of my capital in cash as truth is I can't afford to lose too much in stocks so I'm a bit of a nervous investor.  That hasn't stopped a few speculative bets over the summer when quite a lot was rising which I think was more sentiment driven than anything else more fundamental and I've made a bit. 

As you can see I'm a bit schizophrenic as I understand I'm likely to make more in the stock market long term than in cash but somehow I don't really believe it, so like the safety of cash!  My excuse is we are living through very strange times.  I'm hopeful I will become more confident as an investor....

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've heard nothing but utter bollox come out of his mouth since this blew up, he simply doesn't grasp the problem. As I said a few weeks back, frozen old people on the front page of the Daily Mail will focus minds, but I'm really hoping it doesn't come to that.

Politics aside, I think Kwasi Kwarteng will be the next Tory party leader/PM (heard it here first!). His current energy brief might be a poison chalice, but actually he has a first class academic brain and it looks to me like he's being covertly groomed for high office. Not a two horse race of course, but Kwarteng is an impressive speaker and thinker, whereas Sunak is a very damp (eat-out-to-help-out) squib. 

I don't vote conservative, but the conservatives are i think the governing party for the foreseeable, so its interesting to conjecture who might be next after Boris. Plus it kinda helps to inform who Labour may install next (after their very time-limited current leader; a 'Sir' Keir was never going to cut through). Though i expect the 'media darling' Burnham is pretty much a shoe-in.   

...but of course, as@DurhamBornregularly reminds us, the politics play is mostly a charade. And our 'leaders' always end up enacting the economic script.  

[Ma2]

1 hour ago, No One said:

my first impression is that it looks shit and should ask HR to redirect my pension contributions to my SIPP. If that's an option.

This is what started my journey and landed me on here (although I've got a month of catching up to do as needed a break!)

So I have the same pension and was put into a similar fund.

I will dig out the instructions for moving to SIPP that I used. May differ from your company.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv played the sector pretty badly considering.I owned it too early,got smashed on those last March etc,but bought a lot in National,Go Ahead and Stagecoach at the bottom,so ended up with a decent profit,but it should of been far higher.I think this merger is good news for shareholders.My partner has some Stagecoach at average £1.02 so eliminating most of the red is good news because she nags me on that and Centrica  ,

Its actually pleasing when you have to go back and look over mistakes and try to understand them. Im finding most of mine the last few years have been simple timing issues.Ladders really helped,but didnt avoid entering too early in some areas.

Laddering definitely helps, but I'm not a trader... so i employ the rather basic thesis of Marin Katusa - 'Invest like a (predatory) crocodile, and let the market (your prey) come to you!!'

Of course, as discussed on here recently, the danger is that whilst waiting patiently for say the BK to arrive, the ravages of time/inflation may first cause you (or your capitol) to go extinct!?!

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's in the wrong place (Russia) and idiot governments across Europe neglected to sign contracts with them while it was cheap, instead becoming reliant on non contractual top ups while they go off and build windmills that don't turn in a still autumn while shutting down coal and nuclear.  And yes, a child with crayons could have seen this coming.

And am i right in saying that it is Germany that is the biggest exemplar/culprit for doing this? Talk about cognitive dissonance.

But is this yet another (historical) example of Germany taking Europe down another false and ultimately destructive path? Serious question btw. 

[No One]

Can anyone take a peek at Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3 and tell me if it's shit?

[ThoughtCriminal]

The only Johnson quote on the energy issue you need to see.

 

"It showed that the UK was right to be moving to renewable energy, he added." 

 

What. The. Fuck. 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Sidd said:

Some would say the opportunity is now. Most of mine have been smashed since theirs highs a few months back (First majestic, Avino, Endeavour to name a few). 

Thanks Sidd, but can i ask is Avino Silver and Gold a long term hold for you or is it mainly a speculative buy? I ask because last time i looked Avino silver and gold had no producing mines. And unfortunately that is one of my red-flags in terms of evaluating risk, simply because i don't have great knowledge of the sector so am pretty risk averse.

[Barnsey]

 

[leonardratso]

got a letter from LANDG, saying my pension was >10% in cash and i could be missing out on capital growth, hahahaha, i immediately signed on and moved more into cash, this was before the tanking of the equity funds.

What they neglected to say as well was that i could be missing out on capital decay. (but not in the cash fund).

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

 

Covid the body punch and Evergrande the upper cut?

[Castlevania]

Draft Kings have made a $20 billion bid for Entain. Wow!

I sold the last of my stock for ~£19 a share a month or so ago

Edit: rumoured to be in the £25 a share range. Although Draft Kings stock is down 6% at present so maybe not quite that generous.

[Errol]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting summary of Gazproms position regarding the Gas cluster fuck 

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn I have a new job, and with it a new pension.

Just received the paperwork through the mail this morning, I'm with Standard Life and this is their product.

Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3

 

 

 

From what I can see, it's a fund made up of funds.

My question to you is, do they skim commission on the funds in the funds as well as the discounted 0.4% per year?

You seem to be an expert on this, my first impression is that it looks shit and should ask HR to redirect my pension contributions to my SIPP. If that's an option.

 

 

 

Looking at the makeup its trying to be a 40 bond 60 equity type fund.Yes the funds will charge commisions inside the fund then the platform charge on top,all IFAs have this set up but they add on their commision as well.Its funds fees and then platform fees.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's in the wrong place (Russia) and idiot governments across Europe neglected to sign contracts with them while it was cheap, instead becoming reliant on non contractual top ups while they go off and build windmills that don't turn in a still autumn while shutting down coal and nuclear.  And yes, a child with crayons could have seen this coming.

Rather ironic that an ex-Communist country can `play` the Capitalists better at their own game.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Draft Kings have made a $20 billion bid for Entain. Wow!

I sold the last of my stock for ~£19 a share a month or so ago

Edit: rumoured to be in the £25 a share range. Although Draft Kings stock is down 6% at present so maybe not quite that generous.

Another disaster from our government.We had the best gambling companies in the world,but the government decided to hammer them with tax and because a few drug dealers lose their profits in the slots.Now we have lost the whole industry nearly to the Yanks.

[No One]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looking at the makeup its trying to be a 40 bond 60 equity type fund.Yes the funds will charge commisions inside the fund then the platform charge on top,all IFAs have this set up but they add on their commision as well.Its funds fees and then platform fees.

Thank you for confirming, sounds like a bad deal. I'll speak to HR and try to get them to move to my SIPP

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

up 100 quid. YAY!

This is a lot more fun than having to think about the collapse of Australian democracy...

You won't be so smug when you discover that all you can spend you gains on is Empire gin! :-)

[spygirl]

ECB official and OECD warn of rising inflation risks

Surging energy prices and supply bottlenecks could feed into demand for higher wages

https://www.ft.com/content/55300c7b-ab06-40c4-a5f4-ed02ddb31374

 

Bundesbank's and German population will be s reaming for rate rises.

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its actually pleasing when you have to go back and look over mistakes and try to understand them.Im finding most of mine the last few years have been simple timing issues.Ladders really helped,but didnt avoid entering too early in some areas.

We've had a really good year and a bit since the scam demic started.I was saying to my mum that if I'd been offered this portfolio at the price we're in at five years ago,I'd have taken it.Socttish play included.

Ref that point on reflection,I think it's so improtant in any walk of life to relfect on what went right with something and what could have gone better.

The scottish play is a case in point.Took a shellacking,went away got a better grip on finances,developed the coma scores to run alongside 'spray n pray' and it thanks to those two things(and the many things I've learned on here besides,that we're nicely spread out across sectors but loaded up where the balance sheet/price value is.

Similarly,we took a hard loss on Northern Rock back in 07.Reflected hard,got to grips with fractional reserve lending,sold the rest of our bank stocks and watched them tank 6 months later.

This thread has had more than it's fair share of winners but I proabably learned the msot from the scottish play

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't understand how Evergrande is systemic when they owe their debts in toilet paper Yuan, and their business is internal to China. To me it's just a totally unsurprising anecdote as to why I don't invest in China. You can't trust any of the reported financials.

Quite.I was looking for a nice chart I'd seen focusing on US corporate bond yields but found the Holger post made the same point.

I think a BK deflationary wave will need to be cnetred on the dollar if it's to happen.Most likely I think their junk bond market where yields are eye wateringly low compared to UST's.

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod

you got a view on the Shell deal in the permian?Market liked it.Much as I've got Oct calls I want to run up in Shell,I don't.Go woke,go broke etc.But I don't have any appreciation in terms of price etc.

https://www.ft.com/content/33e48318-91ab-47e4-88f3-72986b0a85f6

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Politics aside, I think Kwasi Kwarteng will be the next Tory party leader/PM (heard it here first!). His current energy brief might be a poison chalice, but actually he has a first class academic brain and it looks to me like he's being covertly groomed for high office. Not a two horse race of course, but Kwarteng is an impressive speaker and thinker, whereas Sunak is a very damp (eat-out-to-help-out) squib. 

I don't vote conservative, but the conservatives are i think the governing party for the foreseeable, so its interesting to conjecture who might be next after Boris. Plus it kinda helps to inform who Labour may install next (after their very time-limited current leader; a 'Sir' Keir was never going to cut through). Though i expect the 'media darling' Burnham is pretty much a shoe-in.   

...but of course, as@DurhamBornregularly reminds us, the politics play is mostly a charade. And our 'leaders' always end up enacting the economic script.  

...or perhaps neither, as our political system may be reformed and become a `new normal`?....one can but dream/hope :-(

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Covid the body punch and Evergrande the upper cut?

...and I suppose the third will be the booster vaccines..."Drop your trousers, don't worry, just a little prick!"