Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

I let them mount up in my SIPP and add to whatever i want whenever and sometimes topping up where i have shaved some profits in places.My ISA divs i now withdraw and live off mostly.Once i can access SIPP il stop taking from ISA and re-invest but take from SIPP etc

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My ISA divs i now withdraw and live off mostly.

Living the dream, I hope to get there one day 

[Castlevania]

34 minutes ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

HL is £1.50 to reinvest dividends. I have it set to reinvest anything above £100. It’s a bit of a pain to be honest, as I have a lot of stuff I’m happy to reinvest and a lot that I’d rather have the money. Thus a mad dash to cancel the reinvestment and take the money around the 10th of the month.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

HL is £1.50 to reinvest dividends. I have it set to reinvest anything above £100. It’s a bit of a pain to be honest, as I have a lot of stuff I’m happy to reinvest and a lot that I’d rather have the money. Thus a mad dash to cancel the reinvestment and take the money around the 10th of the month.

Thanks I totally forgot about that setting, I set it to just collect dividends when I first opened the account and was still learning.  

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Systemic collapse is coming and then I suspect all hell will break loose later in the 20's with both hard right and left rising

Perhaps this is the issue, nobody wants this `poison chalice` and so all the opposition parties are putting up unelectable leaders....although I think Labour has taken this a little too far with Starmer! :-) :-) :-)

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Indeed,it disgusts me what goes on.However its from government down.Rewarding failure by thieving from the working poor.My son is in NEST,has no choice,gets a 100% employer match on 5% at least,but that filth in charge costing him and his workmates flogging on at 5am every day their retirement.Luckily his old man and grandfather backed up the truck.

Interesting today i worked out Repsol has made me more than it cost for all my Spanish Club 18 to 30 holidays and spending cost in my younger days,however like the famous Club 18 to 30 advert stated "one swallow doesnt make a summer" 

Wish I could remember what mine cost...all I can remember is getting off the plane at a sunny Ibiza, and then getting back off at a rainy Gatwick...The rest?....who knows, but I am sure I would be reminded if I ever had a career in politics :-) :-) :-)

[HousePriceMania]

Who say this coming....

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/21/the-fed-likely-will-wait-until-november-for-taper-announcement-cnbc-survey-indicates.html

 

The Fed likely will wait until November for taper announcement, CNBC survey indicates

 

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-say-tapering-may-soon-be-warranted-and-pencil-in-an-earlier-rate-hike-11632333636?siteid=bullytweet

 

 

They're basically waiting for the next collapse so they dont have to.

Fill your boots people.

 

[23rdian]

3 hours ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

If you set these to auto the fee should be much lower than a normal trading fee on many brokers. 99p in my case IIRC.

Of course these are usually LSE shares. Not had any overseas ones compatible.

[NogintheNog]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

4 hours ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

I let them mount up in my SIPP and add to whatever i want whenever and sometimes topping up where i have shaved some profits in places.My ISA divs i now withdraw and live off mostly.Once i can access SIPP il stop taking from ISA and re-invest but take from SIPP etc

That's the way I play it as I already have access to my SIPP. My SIPP is pretty well fully invested so reinvestment is not an issue at the moment with only a few hundred quid in cash. I only work (very!) part time. Just over £5K a year earnings and take the difference to the £12.5K tax allowance, so £7.5K tax free from the SIPP, selling stocks and then making sure I plonk £20K into my ISA every year from cash assets.

Still have 2 untouched pensions that are with Scottish Widows and Aviva, will be harder to get into those once I get the state pension as there won't be much of a gap between that and the tax allowance.

Re-investment is fine if you have very large dividends coming in (I'm with AJ Bell), but for smaller amounts I don't think it is worth it. Let it build and just buy one stock.

[Castlevania]

14 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

No real view other than that us shale is no place for cumbersome foreign giants like Shell, Equinor or BHP. You need to be nimble, move rigs fast and have landmen like sharks. I can just see EOG drilling three wells while a well head purchase order works it's way though Shell accounts departments. It's also a mature asset, good luck to COP

 

I’m assuming COP have assets nearby. Go down the factory route. 

[DurhamBorn]

https://boereport.com/2021/09/21/column-looming-european-energy-crisis-a-lesson-in-averages-that-wont-soon-be-forgotten/

I still dont think the government understands the disaster.No doubt their answer will be to increase handouts to the benny brigade forcing up costs more and more on those just above welfare level.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I still dont think the government understands the disaster.No doubt their answer will be to increase handouts to the benny brigade forcing up costs more and more on those just above welfare level.

I have worked on site with multiple trades this week, all colours, all greeds. Seems to me everyone is aware and everyone is a tad angry.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have worked on site with multiple trades this week, all colours, all greeds. Seems to me everyone is aware and everyone is a tad angry.

Same. Trades, management types, sub contractors all saying they are just waiting for it to go tits up. Heard the same from a ground working company 5weeks ago, different job location. Spoke today to a chippy gaffer who told me 2 of the jobs his firm were due to start have been put on hold ( medium sized jobs).

Wait till CIS gets scrapped. Demotivation on speed. Even shitter builds me thinks. 
 

[DurhamBorn]

Inventories for crude down again in the US 

Four of the top 5 gainers in the S+P oil and gas producers.

End of driving season in the US now so interesting to see how that and falling frack wells meet.

Industry in the US pushing to block LNG exports as Henri Hub keeps increasing,

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/092021-industrials-group-points-to-winter-gas-price-increase-to-push-for-limits-on-us-lng-exports

 

 

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wait till CIS gets scrapped

This is new to me, what's happening?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

This is new to me, what's happening?

I came off CIS about 4 years ago. I have been hammered for tax in the last 2 years. They pretty much want 100% of my earnings this and next year.

I am falling out with the F##kers to be honest.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

This is new to me, what's happening?

HMRC tried this yrs ago. I think with the changes to IR 35 have driven costs up for management personnel.

I reckon this covid1984 bullshit is a chance to fill the bennie pockets of the back of subbies whos bodies are fucked at 45yrs old .

Levelling up my arse. Cunts.

[MvR]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Same. Trades, management types, sub contractors all saying they are just waiting for it to go tits up. Heard the same from a ground working company 5weeks ago, different job location. Spoke today to a chippy gaffer who told me 2 of the jobs his firm were due to start have been put on hold ( medium sized jobs).

Wait till CIS gets scrapped. Demotivation on speed. Even shitter builds me thinks. 
 

Chatting to the engineer fixing up various narrowboat issues for me and he's got lots of boats waiting for parts to arrive before he can fix something.

He's able to keep busy because a lot of his work requires more general parts and supplies or substitute options, but he was saying loads of companies are going to fail as they can't turn over enough work to pay their fixed outgoings. 

[Hancock]

18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I came off CIS about 4 years ago. I have been hammered for tax in the last 2 years. They pretty much want 100% of my earnings this and next year.

I am falling out with the F##kers to be honest.

Cant you just form a ltd company if you're working for different people?

Fuck being a builder on PAYE, and fuck owning a company having to pay people who were once contractors sick pay etc... not exactly a sound business model when days are rained off ... or when materials can't/don't get delivered.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Cant you just form a ltd company if you're working for different people?

Fuck being a builder on PAYE, and fuck owning a company having to pay people who were once contractors sick pay etc... not exactly a sound business model when days are rained off ... or when materials can't/don't get delivered.

 I am a sole trader, don't normally get up before 9am.

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, MvR said:

Chatting to the engineer fixing up various narrowboat issues for me and he's got lots of boats waiting for parts to arrive before he can fix something.

He's able to keep busy because a lot of his work requires more general parts and supplies or substitute options, but he was saying loads of companies are going to fail as they can't turn over enough work to pay their fixed outgoings. 

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

[reformed nice guy]

Another anecdote to throw in the mix.

At a local community group Im a part of, the person that is normally our contact with the local council is retiring early. The local councillor said that the whole council is looking to make lots of cuts, reducing hiring, redundancies because they are struggling with the extra NI payments.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting thread on China being desperate for LNG, and also on their energy troubles in general. 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In laymens terms,whats the sun spots thing all about?

Until the 1980's there was almost direct correlation between sun spot activity and world temperature, freakily so in fact. However the proponents of the theory say there are other factors, including the sun's magnetic pole flipping - which happens between the solar cycles, each cycle is approx 25 years - I believe this reduces energy of the solar flares. Plus they challenge the accuracy of the temperature measurements here on earth, saying increases in 'average temp' are distorted due to the siting of the measuring stations themselves, because due to urban sprawl, many stations are effectively 'moving closer' to any adjacent town and therefore affected more by the town's higher urbanised temp... I think this theory has holes of course, but I also think the authorised carbon theory has holes. It's just that the so called solution to remove carbon fuels is so laughably unrealistic, that I can't also help but be suspicious toward those who push for radical decarbonisation.