Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Heart's Ease]

Quick log/coal anecdotal. 

Just settled up for latest delivery. 50p increase from coal supplier has gone onto a bag of excel smokeless (now £9). £10 on a crate of logs (now £199). The full 50p increase passed on to the end customer (me) for coal. £9 of the £10 passed on to me for logs.

Had a bit of a chat around business. Slow at the moment due to warm weather. Talked gas shortage and their logistics. Their biomass comes from Russia, logs from Poland and Lithuania, all by container into Teeside. 

Need to make more space for more wood I think.

 

[harp]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Any thoughts on Thungela Resources?

Keep hearing chatter of how it's making money hand over fist and that it could pay a £1 divi per share.

I have bought a few of their shares lately.

Someone mentioned them months ago. Since then a very nice run up! 
 

I really should have the courage of other people’s convictions! 😕

[reformed nice guy]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Russia sold gas to the west all through the cold war, and used the dollars earned to buy weapons to use against the USA and the west.

It's a theatre...

A lot of the parts needed for the west to make fancy missles are made in Russia as well

Both sides have a military industrial complex to feed

[sancho panza]

On 21/09/2021 at 12:32, JMD said:

Definitely agree CP. I think that future history-books will write 'it' was obvious - as plain as the sun in the sky perhaps! ...How they will laugh at us, and our modern-day carbon-miasma theories!!

Gentle souls like Piers Corbyn and Neil Oliver (both opposite ends of the political spectrum) repeatedly warn that the emperor has no clothes, but they are ridiculed. Not trying to be obtuse - the whole debate around man-made global-warming is a glaring example of the creeping cancer that is 'un-critical thinking', not to mention mass hysterias of all kinds, all of which must surely be early signs of a 'turning-point' in human history... But whether that 'turning' be a Neil Howe 4th-Turning (good?), or a WEF Reset (bad?), who knows?

 

But btw, has anyone seen Neil Oliver on GBNews? I have only seen clips of him via the recommended links Google keeps throwing at me, but he seems to be going full tin-foil hat. Perhaps i'm being unfair, given my own remarks above. But he is a very eloquent chap i must say.

 

In laymens terms,whats the sun spots thing all about?

21 hours ago, No One said:

Can anyone take a peek at Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3 and tell me if it's shit?

Any of these managed funds-you'll be losing the mangmenet fees  for the ETF's and funds they invest in,then you'll be losing the fees you pay to your own manager.If the average divi on the FTSE is 3%,then you might be losing between 30%-50% of it in fees.

Unless we were looking for exposure to a sector we didn't have a clue about eg the far east,then I'd always avoid management fees or invest directly in the ETF itself.

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Need to make more space for more wood I think.

I used some breeze blocks and 3x2's and 4x2's to make some quick log cradles.  Simple but clever.

Like this, only bigger and about six of them.  Tarp over the top.

Yours probably come gift wrapped for that price!  Or am I just lucky!

[sancho panza]

22 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Quick log/coal anecdotal. 

Just settled up for latest delivery. 50p increase from coal supplier has gone onto a bag of excel smokeless (now £9). £10 on a crate of logs (now £199). The full 50p increase passed on to the end customer (me) for coal. £9 of the £10 passed on to me for logs.

Had a bit of a chat around business. Slow at the moment due to warm weather. Talked gas shortage and their logistics. Their biomass comes from Russia, logs from Poland and Lithuania, all by container into Teeside. 

Need to make more space for more wood I think.

 

Purchased our burner yesterday.Many thanks to all on here who offered advice,particualrly @Harley for some in depth stuff.Much appreciated.

Nice to see oilies board showing some solid gains.

 

 

[Hancock]

Article about keeping your powder dry for the impending "deflationary bust". From 2010!

https://moneyweek.com/7751/deflationary-economy-02601

Russell Napier saying the same in 2016.

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Purchased our burner yesterday.Many thanks to all on here who offered advice,particualrly @Harley for some in depth stuff.Much appreciated.

Nice to see oilies board showing some solid gains.

 

 

Despite having about about 1/3 of my SIPP in oilies, i'm wanting to see them crash and burn!

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Apologies if this has already been posted.  I've spent 2 hours reading the last week of posts, and didn't see it, or find it on the site's search function... but there's so much, it's possible I missed something.

Max Keiser.  From last week.  Show is titled, "The Coming Great Deflation."

0- 7.10 Max & Stacey discuss small countries turning to Bitcoin because of lack of dollars to buy imports.

7.10 - 12:30  Max & Stacey discuss how China ain't doing so bad, really.

12:40 - onward, Max Keiser talks to Michael Pento, about his latest letter to followers, entitled "The Great Deflation of 2022".

Nothing here is news to the thread.  But there's a talking head, on MSM, saying what we're thinking.
 

 

It's easy to dsimiss Keiser but Pento makes a lot of soild points that have been made on here regarding the possiblitiy of a credit event occuring via (take your pick)biggest junk bond market in hsitory with tightest spreads over UST's in hsitory,margin debt,house price to income ratios at record, etc etc......

[sancho panza]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Article about keeping your powder dry for the impending "deflationary bust". From 2010!

https://moneyweek.com/7751/deflationary-economy-02601

Russell Napier saying the same in 2016.

 

amazing how many really intelligent commetators got it wrong over the last decade timing wise,I was in line with these deflatioanry calls from 2010.Look what happened.

A lesson in making your own decisons and follwoing the price action.One of the reasons we're still long this market now despite me seeing a deflationary event in the coming months/year.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

amazing how many really intelligent commetators got it wrong over the last decade timing wise.A lesson in making your own decisons.

The only commentators that get heard, are the ones calling for impending doom.

Still think there could be a dip sometime soon ... if there is then i'll buy in. If not then i'll come up with a plan B.

Thinking about buy half a house and borrow the rest, and rent it out for if i ever come back to Blighty, then i'll be willing to take more risks with the rest. Against my ideology, but fucking people over seems to be the way of the Englishman!

 

 

[Noallegiance]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

amazing how many really intelligent commetators got it wrong over the last decade timing wise,I was in line with these deflatioanry calls from 2010.Look what happened.

A lesson in making your own decisons and follwoing the price action.One of the reasons we're still long this market now despite me seeing a deflationary event in the coming months/year.

I've seen this addressed by a few people recently. Along the lines of - macro forecasts look wrong for a looooooooooong time and then suddenly become extremely right.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

27 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Purchased our burner yesterday.Many thanks to all on here who offered advice,particualrly @Harley for some in depth stuff.Much appreciated.

Nice to see oilies board showing some solid gains.

 

 

Time for the obligatory @DurhamBorn post about pension funds selling these at the bottom. A quick check and my cheapest BP purchase was at 191.78p in October last year. Repsol was 5.224 euros on the same day. Didn't buy any Gazprom until November at 4.892 USD. Even the earlier purchases of RDSB are around even now and up when you average in later purchases. Then you have divvies on top.

The pension funds going woke with necessary industries is going to cost a lot of ordinary workers.

[Castlevania]

28 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Time for the obligatory @DurhamBorn post about pension funds selling these at the bottom. A quick check and my cheapest BP purchase was at 191.78p in October last year. Repsol was 5.224 euros on the same day. Didn't buy any Gazprom until November at 4.892 USD. Even the earlier purchases of RDSB are around even now and up when you average in later purchases. Then you have divvies on top.

The pension funds going woke with necessary industries is going to cost a lot of ordinary workers.

Some of the virtue signalling is off the scale. One of the government pension schemes in Maine in the US proudly announced a few months ago that they were to divest from all fossil fuels. Great, yet 70% of all houses in Maine are off grid for heating (they typically use heating oil) and there doesn’t seem to be any plan to convert that to anything green.

[janch]

4 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Any thoughts on Thungela Resources?

Keep hearing chatter of how it's making money hand over fist and that it could pay a £1 divi per share.

I have bought a few of their shares lately.

I have also bought some.  I was given 4 shares when AAL offloaded it and stupidly sold them (when AJ Bell had a month of fee-free selling) but the share price has risen steadily ever since so I've just bought some more..........here's hoping

[planit]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In laymens terms,whats the sun spots thing all about?

 

The sun is colder (radiating less) when there are less sunspots. A sun spot is a bit like a storm on the surface of the sun.

 

What they are saying is currently we have really low sunspot activity which is still leading to all the glaciers and sea ice melting.

In a couple of years DOSBODERS think when the sun spot activity ramps up we will have a 3 degree increase in temperature and 2 meters higher sea level.

[planit]

I am hoping the final melt up has started, second leg of the stock rotation.

There are so many companies at really low valuations at the moment (all the ones talked about here) that they could really drive the indices higher even if the tech stocks have already topped out.

 

David Hunter keeps upping his target so we will probably never reach it but 4800 seems pretty easy to hit.

 

Only thing checking my confidence is I can't see any way of them stopping taper/printing without bad figures in the economy which will push stock markets down. We want to have our cake and also eat it. Perhaps the infrastructure spending in UK (energy) and US (everything) will take the place of the printing.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I reckon we could be on the cusp of the long predicted melt up towards S&P 500. Reason being is that we appear to be recovering from the Evergrande pull back. A lot of "our shares" have been doing well, especially oilies. Easy to see the telecoms joining in and the miners are possible. Confidence will return quickly. If the tech giants regain their recent highs then the indices are well on their way to new records.

A lot could go wrong with this hypothesis. It just seems like the probable direction of travel unless there is an external shock.

@planit beat me to it!

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I reckon we could be on the cusp of the long predicted melt up towards S&P 500. Reason being is that we appear to be recovering from the Evergrande pull back. A lot of "our shares" have been doing well, especially oilies. Easy to see the telecoms joining in and the miners are possible. Confidence will return quickly. If the tech giants regain their recent highs then the indices are well on their way to new records.

A lot could go wrong with this hypothesis. It just seems like the probable direction of travel unless there is an external shock.

@planit beat me to it!

It's over when the last bear turns bull.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Time for the obligatory @DurhamBorn post about pension funds selling these at the bottom. A quick check and my cheapest BP purchase was at 191.78p in October last year. Repsol was 5.224 euros on the same day. Didn't buy any Gazprom until November at 4.892 USD. Even the earlier purchases of RDSB are around even now and up when you average in later purchases. Then you have divvies on top.

The pension funds going woke with necessary industries is going to cost a lot of ordinary workers.

Indeed,it disgusts me what goes on.However its from government down.Rewarding failure by thieving from the working poor.My son is in NEST,has no choice,gets a 100% employer match on 5% at least,but that filth in charge costing him and his workmates flogging on at 5am every day their retirement.Luckily his old man and grandfather backed up the truck.

Interesting today i worked out Repsol has made me more than it cost for all my Spanish Club 18 to 30 holidays and spending cost in my younger days,however like the famous Club 18 to 30 advert stated "one swallow doesnt make a summer" 

[TNS]

i averaged into bp so around 270 ish. dividends alone in last 18 months have been around 10% of the total investment, i'll take that for a few more years happily! 

[Loki]

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

[TNS]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

How do you guys play reinvesting dividends? Obviously at £11.95 per trade it's not realistic to reinvest every quarter (For me, anyway, with my dividend amounts)

Just let mine pool to be honest and whack them into the next buy

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

Just let mine pool to be honest and whack them into the next buy

That's all I do, just wondered if I was missing a trick 

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

The only commentators that get heard, are the ones calling for impending doom.

Still think there could be a dip sometime soon ... if there is then i'll buy in. If not then i'll come up with a plan B.

Thinking about buy half a house and borrow the rest, and rent it out for if i ever come back to Blighty, then i'll be willing to take more risks with the rest. Against my ideology, but fucking people over seems to be the way of the Englishman!

 

 

It’s always been about geting the serf to pay for your castle