Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

[wherebee]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

Hey, I'm supposed to be the doomster!

Seriously, though, I've closed out just about everything except the oilies, GDXJ, ARB, Centrica, and a couple of small miners.  

If, as I suspect, this winter is going to be very very rocky in the northern hemisphere, I don't want to be watching shares such as BAT crater when I could have sold at a profit.

Oilies, I suspect, do better as society unwinds, as the powers that be will be desperate for energy.

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

I only have Playtech left of the gambling companies I was buying two to three years ago, which is largely going sideways. When are they going to be taken out?

Caesars in retrospect got William Hill for a snip. They’ve already recouped most of the money by selling off the European business to 888 and the casinos to private equity. 

 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

My cousin is a GP and he thinks that initial appointments via video call as a sort of triage is fantastic. You weed out the serial hypochondriacs who are constantly wasting your time. So there is a way to make GP’s more efficient, however knowing the government they’ll bin it and go back to the old system.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

Same. Trades, management types, sub contractors all saying they are just waiting for it to go tits up. Heard the same from a ground working company 5weeks ago, different job location. Spoke today to a chippy gaffer who told me 2 of the jobs his firm were due to start have been put on hold ( medium sized jobs).

Wait till CIS gets scrapped. Demotivation on speed. Even shitter builds me thinks. 
 

Wait until the government start issuing Essential Labour Certificates for foreign workers (they won't use passports as thats a dirty word).....and it won't be their fault as `you` the care assistant/builder/teacher/nurse etc `chose` not to be vaccinated....The current government on has two management approaches

1. To `throw` money at the problem, and

2. To backtrack on any election promises/statements due to "Covid was an exceptional circumstance and so unforeseen"...

...it begs the question, management is all about managing unforeseen circumstances so what do they perceive their job to be then?!

[Barnsey]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://boereport.com/2021/09/21/column-looming-european-energy-crisis-a-lesson-in-averages-that-wont-soon-be-forgotten/

I still dont think the government understands the disaster.No doubt their answer will be to increase handouts to the benny brigade forcing up costs more and more on those just above welfare level.

Can they please stop saying by a penny, and say 1%. That's a lot of f***ing pennies for us.

[Noallegiance]

I felt the need late last night to sell down my zero div gamble stocks that were in the black and some of the smaller holdings with small divs.

Rather than stressing to time anything I fed my winnings into big energy and materials companies with high divs. Partly to catch the rest of a melt up but also if it goes pop and I don't take more profit before-hand I've got mostly stocks that pay me to have them except GDXJ and the 4 or 5 non div payers that are in the red.

I can't control anything else.

[Majorpain]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Also recall the winters 11 and 12 years ago. 09, 10. There was snow on the ground fir a month and temperatures down to minus 20 at night. Another solar minimum. How people forget.

Edit: 

I don't recall it being very windy either, cold., clear days. We may dodge the bullet this winter and get by by the skin of our teeth, again, but to even be facing this risk is an abject failure of government. I repeat: I could hand pick you another 5 old gas reservoirs exactly like Rough currently being abandoned. That means steel cut off and cement poured down the holes. This is happening right now, today. Great story there for you journos, if you're reading.

If you check out recessions and solar minimums, you find there is a fair amount of correlation between the two.  It makes sense that if food prices increase due to less yield due to less sunlight, people have less to spend on other goods with the direct effect GDP decreases.  Of course, that would mean admitting Central Banks are not omnipotent, and they wont do that!  

[Barnsey]

Brace yourself folks...

 

[belfastchild]

4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

If you check out recessions and solar minimums, you find there is a fair amount of correlation between the two.  It makes sense that if food prices increase due to less yield due to less sunlight, people have less to spend on other goods with the direct effect GDP decreases.  Of course, that would mean admitting Central Banks are not omnipotent, and they wont do that!  

@Cattle Prod according to my Facebook timeline, snowed in here for a while January 2008, on and off Jan to March 2013. I had snowchains rattling around in my boot from about 2009 to 2013 and used them a lot in 2013. Cant remember using them since.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

@Cattle Prod according to my Facebook timeline, snowed in here for a while January 2008, on and off Jan to March 2013. I had snowchains rattling around in my boot from about 2009 to 2013 and used them a lot in 2013. Cant remember using them since.

Leads and lags , ocean temps etc

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Globally, oil inventories drew down at 3mbpd last week. That is very fast, historically. What's going to happen if we start burning oil this winter to supplement gas, or start running diesel gennies?

Looks like most coal that can be switched on against gas is,so heavy oil will be next.Government doesnt get it yet though,they think we just need more windmills missin the point.RR racing up,market sniffs small nuclear coming i think.

[Barnsey]

Seems the government backing away from bailing out smaller energy firms after all.. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Wait until the government start issuing Essential Labour Certificates for foreign workers (they won't use passports as thats a dirty word).....and it won't be their fault as `you` the care assistant/builder/teacher/nurse etc `chose` not to be vaccinated....The current government on has two management approaches

1. To `throw` money at the problem, and

2. To backtrack on any election promises/statements due to "Covid was an exceptional circumstance and so unforeseen"...

...it begs the question, management is all about managing unforeseen circumstances so what do they perceive their job to be then?!

What will they do when they run out of money? Lack of money isn't a problem you can throw money at.

The problem they could face is what to cut.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Hey, I'm supposed to be the doomster!

Seriously, though, I've closed out just about everything except the oilies, GDXJ, ARB, Centrica, and a couple of small miners.  

If, as I suspect, this winter is going to be very very rocky in the northern hemisphere, I don't want to be watching shares such as BAT crater when I could have sold at a profit.

Oilies, I suspect, do better as society unwinds, as the powers that be will be desperate for energy.

I could be tied to a chair with Krankie ramming a red hot poker up my backside demanding the password so she can sell my BAT and id just laugh.I sold them above £50 after decades and missed them like crazy.Getting them back at £25 was wonderful and il never sell 1 share in them again.If they ever do go to hell im going with them.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

Cant you just form a ltd company if you're working for different people?

Fuck being a builder on PAYE, and fuck owning a company having to pay people who were once contractors sick pay etc... not exactly a sound business model when days are rained off ... or when materials can't/don't get delivered.

Seen it many times.  Comes in waves.  Start small and then add staff.  Next your running around trying to keep them busy and cover your costs (e.g. you!).  Fine if you're in with the council, etc, until you're not.  Then the turn down comes, no revenue to cover the fixed costs, let them go or go kaput, and back to you, the van and the dog, and a happy life you'd forgotten about!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I felt the need late last night to sell down my zero div gamble stocks that were in the black and some of the smaller holdings with small divs.

Rather than stressing to time anything I fed my winnings into big energy and materials companies with high divs. Partly to catch the rest of a melt up but also if it goes pop and I don't take more profit before-hand I've got mostly stocks that pay me to have them except GDXJ and the 4 or 5 non div payers that are in the red.

I can't control anything else.

If you're selling the riskier stocks shouldn't you sell those in the red as well as those in the black? I'm sort of playing devils advocate here. Unless there are compelling reasons why the losers are more likely to gain now. You didn't expect them all to be winners anyway. Of course if the losers are now near worthless then it is moot.

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iron-ore-prices-buckle-as-evergrande-adds-to-china-concerns-11632382224

 

SYDNEY—The crisis engulfing property developer China Evergrande Group is causing iron-ore prices to buckle, as investors worry that pressure on China’s huge property market will translate into lower appetite for steel.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I could be tied to a chair with Krankie ramming a red hot poker up my backside demanding the password so she can sell my BAT and id just laugh.I sold them above £50 after decades and missed them like crazy.Getting them back at £25 was wonderful and il never sell 1 share in them again.If they ever do go to hell im going with them.

I was going to post that I thought people smoked more in bad times. I was going to check the data first but that will wait.

A bit like the woman in the corner shop this morning buying £5 of scratch cards. Said to the shopkeeper that she felt knackered. Just stopped myself from telling her that she looked knackered and that was only from what I could see from behind. Anyway the point is she was having a hard time and threw her money away on something that won't improve it. Smoking is different, people enjoy it. They don't stop when they feel down.

[Hancock]

Just now, Harley said:

Seen it many times.  Comes in waves.  Start small and then add staff.  Next your running around trying to keep them busy and cover your costs (e.g. you!).  Fine if you're in with the council, etc, until you're not.  Then the turn down comes, no revenue to cover the fixed costs, let them go or go kaput, and back to you, the van and the dog, and a happy life you'd forgotten about!

Oh yes sod employing people, but just use it as a vehicle to invoice and be a one man band.

Times have changed, i remember working on building sites in the first part of the 90s and meeting builders in their 40s who had worked cash in hand their entire life ... they thought SC60 (which i believe preceded CIS) was an abomination as they'd have to start paying into the system ... and answer as to where they'd been the last 25 years or more!

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I was going to post that I thought people smoked more in bad times. I was going to check the data first but that will wait.

A bit like the woman in the corner shop this morning buying £5 of scratch cards. Said to the shopkeeper that she felt knackered. Just stopped myself from telling her that she looked knackered and that was only from what I could see from behind. Anyway the point is she was having a hard time and threw her money away on something that won't improve it. Smoking is different, people enjoy it. They don't stop when they feel down.

It used to be said that the real growth industries during a recession were pubs and bookies/lotteries.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

You're not picking on the GPs as they are just an excellent example of your spot on point.  Note the GPs recently voted to restrict further new doctor numbers FFS!  They have the best trade union going.  We have an ageing population and presumably many are now winding down, as they would but no doubt accelerated by covid and other toxic things that continue to circulate.  Other areas include the trades (already well under way thanks to Blair & Co) and farming.  They're even paying incentives for farmers to retire!  I don't know what HMG's end game is but there's going to be an increasingly crunchy crunch!  At it's hopefully going to hit the prats that have lorded over us into this place on social media, media, etc the most.  You know, the ones who wear sandals 'cause they can't even tie shoe laces!  Yes, people are angry, the net contributors the very, very most.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Hey, I'm supposed to be the doomster!

Seriously, though, I've closed out just about everything except the oilies, GDXJ, ARB, Centrica, and a couple of small miners.  

If, as I suspect, this winter is going to be very very rocky in the northern hemisphere, I don't want to be watching shares such as BAT crater when I could have sold at a profit.

Oilies, I suspect, do better as society unwinds, as the powers that be will be desperate for energy.

Sell up and/or decomplex back to the sources of (or should that be "for") need (i.e. our lovies)?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Oh yes sod employing people, but just use it as a vehicle to invoice and be a one man band.

Times have changed, i remember working on building sites in the first part of the 90s and meeting builders in their 40s who had worked cash in hand their entire life ... they thought SC60 (which i believe preceded CIS) was an abomination as they'd have to start paying into the system ... and answer as to where they'd been the last 25 years or more!

Do you think those early 90s builders were underpaid because the tax was avoided? So they're not going to be paying tax so we can pay them less?

 

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

You're not picking on the GPs as they are just an excellent example of your spot on point.  Note the GPs recently voted to restrict further new doctor numbers FFS!  We have an ageing population and presumably many are now winding down, as they would but no doubt accelerated by covid and other toxic things that continue to circulate.  Other areas include the trades (already well under way thanks to Blair & Co) and farming.  They're even paying incentives for farmers to retire!  I don't know what HMG's end game is but there's going to be an increasingly crunchy crunch!  At it's hopefully going to hit the prats that have lorded over us into this place on social media, media, etc the most.  You know, the ones who wear sandals 'cause they can't even tie shoe laces!  Yes, people are angry, the net contributors the very, very most.

Harley, I didn't see this vote to further restrict doctor training. I know that the BMA voted to restrict this several years ago but not that they had doubled down lately. Have you got a link for that?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

My cousin is a GP and he thinks that initial appointments via video call as a sort of triage is fantastic. You weed out the serial hypochondriacs who are constantly wasting your time. So there is a way to make GP’s more efficient, however knowing the government they’ll bin it and go back to the old system.

An area due massive reform.  Hopefully these tensions will bring that about.  Telemedicine indeed has an excellent place (indeed why not international access?!), other medics can do more, nursing degrees can be scrapped, punitive fees introduced to deter the worried well and others, more preventative health, more clinics, AI (triage, etc), etc.  One of the few areas yet to be re-engineered.  So some potential upside, but then we have our current administrative class to implement....OFG!

PS:  Telemedicine is already included in some company health plans.