Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Edit: to add a text box to annoy the people out there who nick stuff off this forum.

 

If it's MSM I'd just like to reiterate that I told you all to buy CNA  who's laughing now, fuck off and read the COVID forum ya spineless lying quims. 

 

[Loki]

Blimey the 10Y note has gone up by 1% today.  That's quite a move for 12 hours isn't it?

[leonardratso]

29 minutes ago, Loki said:

Blimey the 10Y note has gone up by 1% today.  That's quite a move for 12 hours isn't it?

for bitcoin its a non event.

If it hasnt moved 20% in 6 hrs its not considered an event.

But for a bond/treasury note id say thats a whopper for 12hrs.

[macca]

4 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Cherry is about 61p per litre just, so Iv heard last year I topped up at 45p!

 

 

ive got 16tlrs of paraffin and a heater and a couple of lanterns if the lights go out, just rigging up a solar system with a couple of hundred AH batteries i got for free.. they are 4 years old but it think it will work.. if not down the scrappies for a large wedge of cash.

[macca]

4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Yes. Yes it is.

Now PETROL is rationed as BP to restrict deliveries and close stations (msn.com)

IR35 lorry driver shortage.. along with Brexit and people realising there is more to life than being a layby rapist.. only joking about the Brexit

https://www.contractorweekly.com/tax-a-ir35-news/ir35-reform-sees-lorry-driver-shortage-reach-crisis-point/

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

I had crippling pain in my abdomen recently and called 111, they told me to call an ambulance and go to A&E.

I got a lift down instead, and the woman at reception said there is a queue of 10 or so ambulances, and 120 people waiting. This was on a weekday night at 10pm, I've never seen A&E so busy.

111 has to be at fault for sending so many people needlessly to the hospital, to cover themselves.

But no out of hours doctor doesn't help.

You've reminded me, performing 'out of hours cover' was the other responsibility that was removed from the GP contract in that 2008 review. The arrogance of the medical profession is astounding. I think their response to covid has been appaling. And i think they will be shocked at the public critisism coming their way. But for now, Neil Oliver sums things up for me, he said recently: 'I used to trust all doctors. Now I don't trust all doctors.'... Revolutions begin with such sentiment.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Errol said:

This isn't how that would work. If there was an open blockade we would be in Defcon 2 in hours and Defcon 1 unless the US withdrew. China (and Russia) always have subs in position on both East and West coast. Nuclear launches could happen within minutes giving the US no time to respond or defend themselves.

In any event, China has a massive navy with more than enough assets (including submarines) to track and destroy enemy targets. They are building more constantly. 

Also, Russia can supply most of what China requires. If it comes to the West trying to strangle China, I would expect Russia to step in immediately to supply as much as possible - by land, but also using the Northern sea route. No blockade can be effective with Russia, the country with the most stuff (to put it bluntly) overtly supplying China with all the essentials.

Present day and tactically, what you say is probably correct. However, I think by the time those Aussie subs are getting chippy with China, the West and Russia will have another detente well underway. And Russia and India, like minded and close partners today, will be actively ganging up on China. Russia hates being China's junior partner, Russia can live (kinda) with merely despising us in the West, but long term it wants China to dissolve into its 15 or so separate provinces, just like itself humiliatingly suffered when its own 15 republics of the former USSR disintegrated... This I think will be the intended gameplay, but the brinkmanship and whether all goes to plan is of course another matter. 

[Talking Monkey]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

Present day and tactically, what you say is probably correct. However, I think by the time those Aussie subs are getting chippy with China, the West and Russia will have another detente well underway. And Russia and India, like minded and close partners today, will be actively ganging up on China. Russia hates being China's junior partner, Russia can live (kinda) with merely despising us in the West, but long term it wants China to dissolve into its 15 or so separate provinces, just like itself humiliatingly suffered when its own 15 republics of the former USSR disintegrated... This I think will be the intended gameplay, but the brinkmanship and whether all goes to plan is of course another matter. 

Fuck me I hope I live to see that, would be ace to see China disintegrate just for the sheer excitement factor. 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

I've just posted on this. I believe those votes happened back in 2008. But I may have muddled the GMC with the GMC! My bad, however my main criticisms of these professional bodies still stand.

Oops, 'muddled GMC with the BMA' is of course what I had meant to say.

[wherebee]

12 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Fuck me I hope I live to see that, would be ace to see China disintegrate just for the sheer excitement factor. 

be about 100 million dead, so maybe not so cheery, eh?

[The Grey Man]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

Present day and tactically, what you say is probably correct. However, I think by the time those Aussie subs are getting chippy with China, the West and Russia will have another detente well underway. And Russia and India, like minded and close partners today, will be actively ganging up on China. Russia hates being China's junior partner, Russia can live (kinda) with merely despising us in the West, but long term it wants China to dissolve into its 15 or so separate provinces, just like itself humiliatingly suffered when its own 15 republics of the former USSR disintegrated... This I think will be the intended gameplay, but the brinkmanship and whether all goes to plan is of course another matter. 

Very good points.

India is part of the Quad for sure. At present.

Its military tech is spread amongst the big players regarding its buying and joint committments. Friends to everyone.

India is a key stone to any Indian Ocean/Pacific plan.

Very similar to the post banks crisis. But India was fucked off.

India needs some sharp politicos at the moment.

They could make good. Perhaps stop the great slave reset here.

Post banks collapse India should have been the next China for offshoring.  China was too expensive then.According to the plan makers then.

Never happened. I like chaos. Rules are ignored. Risky for sure.

Modi needs to stop being PO'ed about the dams in Afghanistan and start playing the game properly

They are best placed to upset the hegemony. I asked on some post, after the Biden speech this week, what it takes to be a partner in team Biden. No answers. India is the military quad. Not a partner. Not a business partner.

For me, that is good. 

They need to pull their weight or be used and abused.

I want them to. I can hear the Indian call worker uk scams quotes. Fine.

If they dont pull rank here then just read the BBC for your news and futures.

[Talking Monkey]

32 minutes ago, wherebee said:

be about 100 million dead, so maybe not so cheery, eh?

Maybe so, a 100 million chinese dead, possibly, maybe, to avoid global enslavement by a rapacious and predatory China.

Its still a cheery proposition to me as my kids and grandkids won't be enslaved in some Chinese controlled dystopian prison planet. 

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

On GPs specifically could you elaborate on what is the writing on the wall they see. Is that they know in the next 5 to 10 years tech is going to take their jobs or is it something else. 

More generally a real malaise has fallen over the white collar professional types. All the drive has evaporated. 

Yes, tech is a large driving part, leading to job insecurity and reduction in prestige, not helped any by the GPs themselves using Google search during patient consultations, ive experienced this happen myself. But GPs have a unique, semi-detached relationship with the NHS, they are not employees, instead they contract their private services to the NHS. They are renumerated by the number of patients on their list, and by whether they reach state targets for immunisations or for certain health screenings for diabetes or cervical sneers, etc, which commoditises both the patient and the work of the GP. GPs used to favour their special relationship with the NHS but today it is seen as isolating and a barrier for career progression. 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Maybe so, a 100 million chinese dead, possibly, maybe, to avoid global enslavement by a rapacious and predatory China.

Its still a cheery proposition to me as my kids and grandkids won't be enslaved in some Chinese controlled dystopian prison planet. 

No, they will be enslaved in a `democratic` UK one! :-)

[Harley]

6 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

They could make good. Perhaps stop the great slave reset here.

India already has a caste system.  They probably don't want another (WEF) one dumped upon them!

[DurhamBorn]

Interesting Boris's words here .The macro on this was obvious for a long time,since around 98.High welfare meant workers not interested in doing more and companies to survive all having to pay the lowest wages and let government pick up the tab.They used low wages instead of investing and workers used bennies instead of working.However companies didnt have much choice.Pay more they would of been at a massive disadvantage to others and for little gain for employees who lost just as much benefits as they gained in wages.Brown destroyed the UK economy and the Tories bottled it when Osborne had very good starting plants to sort it out.Bennies need to fall hard against wages and cost of living.If you notice though the BOE said yesterday inflation would only remain if wages followed the increases and they didnt expect it,yet Boris above says it in black and white rising wages are part of their plan,and rightly so because without a 20% to 25% increases at the bottom the UK government finances will collapse.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10023065/Boris-Johnson-says-bosses-need-start-paying-staff-more.html

Mr Johnson said many firms had paid their staff too little for years – and suggested that rising wages seen in recent months could help plug the gap for some workers on low incomes. 

'If you look at the UK since 2008, you look at our companies, they've been paying very low wages and they've been not investing, and productivity has fallen.'

[HousePriceMania]

Now, why would China this week declare Crypto's illegal ?

 

 

 

My thoughts....to stop a run on their banks....

[Loki]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Now, why would China this week declare Crypto's illegal ?

 

 

 

My thoughts....to stop a run on their banks....

I wonder if gold is still permitted

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm still in bed. Might grab a beer from the fridge.

Come on...could you not wake your partner up and get them to get it for you?!

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

I wonder if gold is still permitted

Or for how long.

[ThoughtCriminal]

If ever a picture painted a thousand words. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Ever get the feeling this is all going to end very badly? 

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ever get the feeling this is all going to end very badly? 

It's Brexit I tell ya.

We need to re-join the EU

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

If ever a picture painted a thousand words. 

And Infrastrata are still waiting to find out if they're allowed to build some caverns.

Seems as if this supply issue could simply be resolved by the Germans opening Nord Stream 2 a few months early ... every weld will be inspected and passed not long after its been welded, so it should be good to go as it is.

Though the Americans don't want that to happen.
https://www.rferl.org/a/nord-stream-us-congress-sanctions-russia/31474034.html

[planit]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Sancho, your question prompted me to look at my own charts. It's commercial plus SPR crude. I have tended to model commercical crude only, but crude plus SPR is quite revealing. Possibly revealing a complaceny in the market. I mean the SPR is onoy released in extremis, and the govt are stupidly selling it down at the moment, but if there is a supply problem, the market may again look at both together. Basically, the combined inventory is heading toward levels that the 2010-2015 $100 oil era hung off:

 

(black box is your ycharts time series to help get your eye in).

We're there already in fact. So that's the main fundamental that underpins price, the rest is sentiment. My first post on here I spoke about the 'perception of scarcity/supply'. There was a perception of scarcity from 2010-2015, there has been a perception of supply since then. Inventories almost hit my crudely drawn median line in 2018 and 2019, the market is expecting inventories to bounce back up like that again, I suspect. If inventories don't, we are back to $100 oil.

Why is the run down fast historically? Because all of what we have discussed on here. No investment in supply, bounce back in demand. Historically there has been projects on the shelf, or in the pipleline to add to supply. Not this time, and it's structural. BK may gives us another downdraft, but this is baked in.

Edit: to add a text box to annoy the people out there who nick stuff off this forum. Anyone here, do what you like, and dyodd

 

Great figures and analysis.

You are correct, we are already half way down into the Nov 2008 - Feb 2015 Range.

 

Looking at those figures available here, the last time "Stocks of Crude Oil (Including SPR)" went below the psychologically significant billion barrels of oil was Dec 16th 2011.

If the current draw rate continues (Apr 30th - now)  we would be below a billion within 8 weeks. I am sure the draw rate can slow down but it seems a big ask to reverse it with Delta receding.

The hedgies and other funds will be aware of this and the more confident they become the more the oil price will rise. I still think focus will shift from gas to oil before the end of the year.

 

I doubt the current views and plans on renewables/ESG will still be standing in 18 months. Remember the market will react a long time before the actual real squeeze in oil and nat gas supply (which is probably 2-3 years away).

Good luck everyone on here.