Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, feed said:

https://www.teletrader.com/bp-to-ration-fuel-supplies-due-to-driver-shortage/news/details/56415147?internal=1

BP has informed the United Kingdom government that it will only be able to ensure continuity of supply if it restricts petrol and diesel deliveries, according to a report by ITV on Thursday.

The oil giant's delivery capacity is being hamstrung by an ongoing shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers. BP's head of UK retail Hanna Hofer reportedly told the Cabinet Office that the situation was "bad, very bad" and pleaded with officials to grasp the "urgency of the situation."

UK small business minister Paul Scully told ITV that "we are concerned about BP and other sectors where we are hearing those stresses coming to bear," but that "we also want to see what the industry/sector can do for themselves."

 

Sorry, is this a roundabout way of saying we could see rationing over winter?

[Gin]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

The submarines are significant. Silent, 6 month mission nuclear subs. Significantly, they are getting Tomahawk missiles too. They don't have to do anything, but they will be there, permanantly, with the ability to blockade China with a few hours notice. No ship would go near China and the CCP would collapse in days. They're going to have to behave themselves.

Taiwan’s air force has scrambled once again to warn off 19 Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone, according to its defence ministry, in the latest uptick in tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/23/taiwan-scrambles-jets-as-chinese-aircraft-enter-air-defence-zone

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It is probably this link from 2008. Few know about it and many would be angry if they did. One of those things that the media has never picked up on. Even doctors might not have the brassneck to reduce training further at this time.

https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

No but their medical brassneck does extend to now wanting a 3 day working week! And during a pandemic no less!!! I do think the NHS is heading for a self inflicted crises, and so yes people will become very angry. But I wonder what the fallout will be, in terms of any political winners/losers or even perhaps strong mandate for real health reform?

[Loki]

Umm...10Y note just hit what I believe is David Hunters forecast threshold point, over 1.40%

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

If it keeps going up perhaps we get the BK without the party first. 

Personally I am assuming it will fall back.

Double check I haven't bollocksed up interpreting/remembering it too 

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Recovering from some too physical work days for me age, etc....

So went off to look at diesel gens.  Not that expensive relative to petrol or lpg.  Saw small amounts of red for about £1 a litre and one website saying one 5kw gen running at 5O% would use 1 litre (50p) an hour.  So about 40p per kwh?  Expensive versus leccy but not if facing a blackout.  Interesting if diesel was similar to heating oil because heating oil is currently 50p+ a litre bulk.  Even better would be propane heating with a tap off to a backup lpg gen, or for me, a gen that could run on heating oil. Can gens run on heating oil?  Similar stuff, just 2 points lower (higher?) viscosity?

PS:  Regs for diesel storage seem to kick in at 200lts and regarding legality, domestic heating looks like it will not be bothered by the 2022 changes re. red.

PPS: https://www.quora.com/Can-heating-oil-be-used-as-a-diesel-substitute-in-a-diesel-engine?share=1

Cherry is about 61p per litre just, so Iv heard last year I topped up at 45p!

 

 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

Yep, all these professional communities are secretive and insular, whether they be health, banking, even construction (see recent appalling high rise building standards), etc. ...it's almost like the Masons are a 'false flag' diversionary tactic, when the real manipulative power games are being performed in plain sight!! Shame on us perhaps for being so foolish and obsequious?!

[Transistor Man]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

Umm...10Y note just hit what I believe is David Hunters forecast threshold point, over 1.40%

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

If it keeps going up perhaps we get the BK without the party first. 

Personally I am assuming it will fall back.

Double check I haven't bollocksed up interpreting/remembering it too 

I believe his forecast is: 10 year to 2.5%, during a melt-up.

[reformed nice guy]

Another data point for the thread:

Phoneline is with Sky, dont really use it but new price for standard minutes not including in your package up from 16p to 20p per minute!

[Noallegiance]

46 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Sorry, is this a roundabout way of saying we could see rationing over winter?

Yes. Yes it is.

Now PETROL is rationed as BP to restrict deliveries and close stations (msn.com)

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I believe his forecast is: 10 year to 2.5%, during a melt-up.

Thanks for clearing that up!

[Errol]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

seeing more and more mention of the origins of covid

Yes, the Western propaganda is increasing. They are getting desperate to draw attention away from Fort Detrick and American involvement.

The Russians view the AUKUS agreement as another sign of desperation. It's inept foreign policy - but typical of the US/UK.

[Talking Monkey]

13 hours ago, JMD said:

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

On GPs specifically could you elaborate on what is the writing on the wall they see. Is that they know in the next 5 to 10 years tech is going to take their jobs or is it something else. 

More generally a real malaise has fallen over the white collar professional types. All the drive has evaporated. 

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

More generally a real malaise has fallen over the white collar professional types. All the drive has evaporated. 

My employer has gone all in on 'Mental Wellbeing', and 'Managing Work Intensity' and I think most folks, including me, see that as opportunity to care less.  Not difficult when you're wfh the majority of the time.

I don't know if this is more widespread but I've had some terrible customer service recently from a couple of firms that are normally very good and it feels like the same reason.    

[Barnsey]

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Sorry, is this a roundabout way of saying we could see rationing over winter?

I've done the right thing and filled up all our cars.

Went and did some panic buying also.

Sugar is like Politician's morals.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Edit to add that dentistry has already been ruined to the extent where people of modest means (me) have gone private.

Dentistry is a strange one as the dentists themselves were never nationalised. They could get an NHS licence and then take on NHS customers, but they were always a private endeavour who were/are paid piece rate for working on the NHS. This throws up many ethical conundrums. Drill and fill to you heart’s content or go down the route of taking on a ridiculous number of customers and spend a couple minutes having a quick poke around 70+ patients a day. Spend the money on materials that will last years or use cheap ones knowing that the NHS patient will be back in a few years for you to patch it up. In addition most of the developments in dentistry over the past 30+ years is purely cosmetic and the NHS won’t pay for it.

[dnb24]

Is systemic collapse the plan all along?

CBDCs discussed this week with “programming” part of their qualities

From the telegraph 

https://archive.ph/740Rb

[Loki]

15 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Is systemic collapse the plan all along?

CBDCs discussed this week with “programming” part of their qualities

From the telegraph 

https://archive.ph/740Rb

Quote

He said: “You could introduce programmability - what happens if one of the participants in a transaction puts a restriction on [future use of the money]?

“There could be some socially beneficial outcomes from that, preventing activity which is seen to be socially harmful in some way. But at the same time it could be a restriction on people’s freedoms.”

 

Let me guess: CO2.

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, Castlevania said:

My cousin is a GP and he thinks that initial appointments via video call as a sort of triage is fantastic. You weed out the serial hypochondriacs who are constantly wasting your time. So there is a way to make GP’s more efficient, however knowing the government they’ll bin it and go back to the old system.

Another way to weed out the hypochondriacs and timewasters would be to make a token charge, say £5-10...everybody has some sort of credit/debit card these days, and the whole system can be automated so why not?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

My employer has gone all in on 'Mental Wellbeing', and 'Managing Work Intensity' and I think most folks, including me, see that as opportunity to care less.  Not difficult when you're wfh the majority of the time.

I don't know if this is more widespread but I've had some terrible customer service recently from a couple of firms that are normally very good and it feels like the same reason.    

I try to keep myself motivated. Workload also varies a lot and I'm confident I'll kick into top gear when it gets busy next month. I've got pride.

That said I think WFH was initially novel and there was a spirit of doing your bit in an emergency to start with. Now people have been WFH for 18 months it isn't new, communication may have declined and bad habits can creep in. You've got to weigh that against the vast savings on rent.

[Loki]

Perhaps the whole country has just had enough.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

49 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Dentistry is a strange one as the dentists themselves were never nationalised. They could get an NHS licence and then take on NHS customers, but they were always a private endeavour who were/are paid piece rate for working on the NHS. This throws up many ethical conundrums. Drill and fill to you heart’s content or go down the route of taking on a ridiculous number of customers and spend a couple minutes having a quick poke around 70+ patients a day. Spend the money on materials that will last years or use cheap ones knowing that the NHS patient will be back in a few years for you to patch it up. In addition most of the developments in dentistry over the past 30+ years is purely cosmetic and the NHS won’t pay for it.

Private dentistry is worth the extra. Much more thorough.

[TNS]

17 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I try to keep myself motivated. Workload also varies a lot and I'm confident I'll kick into top gear when it gets busy next month. I've got pride.

That said I think WFH was initially novel and there was a spirit of doing your bit in an emergency to start with. Now people have been WFH for 18 months it isn't new, communication may have declined and bad habits can creep in. You've got to weigh that against the vast savings on rent.

Yeah, cracking open wine at midday probably isn’t the best idea 

[leonardratso]

you guys need diy denistry, my fine set of oak teeth will last years as long as i varnish them regularly, in fact they should grow a little every year and ive already planted an oak tree in the back garden ready for when i need a new set.

looking fine marty mcfly;

 

LANDG have written to me again with new terms and conditions, after they told me i had too much of my pension in a cash fund - which caused me to put even more into the cash fund - they now say that they will swap out funds on my instructions on unit prices in 2 days, rather than today using live or maybe set time (midday?) prices. Makes me want to put even more in the cash fund.
They werent great anyway, their available funds have taken forever to grow and then only a small amount to say what some other funds have done over the last few years.

[RWJ]

12 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I try to keep myself motivated. Workload also varies a lot and I'm confident I'll kick into top gear when it gets busy next month. I've got pride.

That said I think WFH was initially novel and there was a spirit of doing your bit in an emergency to start with. Now people have been WFH for 18 months it isn't new, communication may have declined and bad habits can creep in. You've got to weigh that against the vast savings on rent.

The other thing is wfh full time has opened our eyes to the fact most people can do their jobs in much less than 35/40 hours per week, if we cut out all the unnecessary bullshit like pointless meetings and harebrained admin tasks.  Everyone gets more time for themselves and the key stuff still gets done.