Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[planit]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inventories for crude down again in the US 

Four of the top 5 gainers in the S+P oil and gas producers.

End of driving season in the US now so interesting to see how that and falling frack wells meet.

Industry in the US pushing to block LNG exports as Henri Hub keeps increasing,

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/092021-industrials-group-points-to-winter-gas-price-increase-to-push-for-limits-on-us-lng-exports

 

 

 

US imports were 700kbpd higher last week than the week before. This kept the headline figure up a bit

(would have been 0.7x7=4.9mmbpd lower) and the market suppressed in my opinion (oil still lower than a week ago).

Be interesting to see if the imports keep moving higher, this will take supply off elsewhere but might result in the US stockpiles increasing again.

Attention must  move from gas to oil soon. As was said earlier, there will be diesel generators burning this winter since gas prices are so high.

 

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I could be tied to a chair with Krankie ramming a red hot poker up my backside demanding the password so she can sell my BAT and id just laugh.I sold them above £50 after decades and missed them like crazy.Getting them back at £25 was wonderful and il never sell 1 share in them again.If they ever do go to hell im going with them.

The dream....

The reality....

 

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Harley, I didn't see this vote to further restrict doctor training. I know that the BMA voted to restrict this several years ago but not that they had doubled down lately. Have you got a link for that?

No, but I heard it recently (during this year?).  To restrict the number of medical training places.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

An area due massive reform.  Hopefully these tensions will bring that about.  Telemedicine indeed has an excellent place (indeed why not international access?!), other medics can do more, nursing degrees can be scrapped, punitive fees introduced to deter the worried well and others, more preventative health, more clinics, AI (triage, etc), etc.  One of the few areas yet to be re-engineered.  So some potential upside, but then we have our current administrative class to implement....OFG!

PS:  Telemedicine is already included in some company health plans.

I have 24/7 online GP access and also a 2nd opinion option. Never needed it. If I do need a GP and my GP surgery is as useless as I suspect they are then I have an option. Must cost the business buttons or else they wouldn't pay! Obviously working age is relatively cheap.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, planit said:

Attention must  move from gas to oil soon. As was said earlier, there will be diesel generators burning this winter since gas prices are so high.

A prepper warned me about having a diesel vehicle as he said the first thing they'll ration is diesel for use by commercial trucks, the military, etc.  I should add this source too!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

No, but I heard it recently (during this year?).  To restrict the number of medical training places.

It is probably this link from 2008. Few know about it and many would be angry if they did. One of those things that the media has never picked up on. Even doctors might not have the brassneck to reduce training further at this time.

https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

[HousePriceMania]

My wife tells me she is struggling to get sugar.

Has anyone any thoughts on Tate and Lyle ?

Dividend 4.37&

PE: 13.04

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I have 24/7 online GP access and also a 2nd opinion option. Never needed it. If I do need a GP and my GP surgery is as useless as I suspect they are then I have an option. Must cost the business buttons or else they wouldn't pay! Obviously working age is relatively cheap.

There's a Scandinavian company I nearly invested in a while back.  Just going public I think.  I should look at these sorts of things again.

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

No, but I heard it recently (during this year?).  To restrict the number of medical training places.

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

[RickyBacker]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Globally, oil inventories drew down at 3mbpd last week. That is very fast, historically. What's going to happen if we start burning oil this winter to supplement gas, or start running diesel gennies?

Family business with a factory in Shenzhen have been told that they will have no power for six days... They will be forced to start up the diesel generators to supply the electricity. I believe this is the case for all factories in Shenzhen.

 

[jamtomorrow]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

A prepper warned me about having a diesel vehicle as he said the first thing they'll ration is diesel for use by commercial trucks, the military, etc.  I should add this source too!

Not hard to stockpile diesel tho - 55 gal drums and hand pumps still easy to come by.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

My wife tells me she is struggling to get sugar.

Has anyone any thoughts on Tate and Lyle ?

Dividend 4.37&

PE: 13.04

I own a sold down stake.  What's left is red like most of my stuff, but pays a good div.  Not sure if it still makes sugar though.  I think they used to have the imported molasses market but now beet is used, hence the shift?  DYOR but IMO looks oversold on the weekly and selling off on the monthly.  A chance the weekly may start to strengthen following last week's 4.31% pop but may need time.  Daily seems to be on the up from the 20 Sep20 low but has had some false break outs this year.  A bit of a wedge forming on the daily momentum which could result in some strength in due course.  DYOR.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

Thanks like the property developer funded tories voting to limit housing supply !!!

[belfastchild]

Just now, jamtomorrow said:

Not hard to stockpile diesel tho - 55 gal drums and hand pumps still easy to come by.

20l home heating drums are around 1.50 to 2 quid each here - empty hypo drums sold by farmers. The cheap red topped plastic syphons are handy for these.

Get yourself a 5 litre black plastic one of the type they sell in halfords. Fill that from the big drums and be seen by neighbours putting that in your car instead of having a lot.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Not hard to stockpile diesel tho - 55 gal drums and hand pumps still easy to come by.

I've got four 20lt jerry cans for fuel for work, etc.  Safely stowed.  I add conditioner to the petrol.  May add some more cans.  Does diesel have the same issue as petrol storing it for long periods?

A bit of a digression but I spent yesterday researching back up power.  LPG, petrol, and diesel generators and electrical alternatives.  Maybe I should run a diesel gen on red diesel?  My current plan is to go the battery route for my freezers, etc.  I can charge these from the mains, solar and/or a gen.  Not cheap though and gel or lithium?

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looks like most coal that can be switched on against gas is,so heavy oil will be next.Government doesnt get it yet though,they think we just need more windmills missin the point.RR racing up,market sniffs small nuclear coming i think.

Saw the news last night about China stopping building coal power plants overseas. Was touted as a green issue.
First thought in my head was that China wants to keep the coal for itself.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

All that hot oil and gas money?!!!

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

And Brazil ... with more rises coming ....  pity their inflation isn't just temporary like ours.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-raises-interest-rates-signals-third-big-hike-next-month-2021-09-22/

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

I've got four 20lt jerry cans for fuel for work, etc.  Safely stowed.  I add conditioner to the petrol.  May add some more cans.  Does diesel have the same issue as petrol storing it for long periods?

As long as you keep water out of it, no.
During the summer I finished a project to have up to 4 years of home heating oil (2 tanks) at any one time and although they recommend max of 2 years open air storage (and water does get in, sink to bottom and apparently microbes start eating at the biodiesel part), I'll chance it.

[Heart's Ease]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

 

We had a chat about this on the Brexit thread. Just reread what I wrote. Reads ok! 

I should have mentioned Health Education England also have a key role in workforce planning, as the quango between DHSC and the service.

[Heart's Ease]

2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

As long as you keep water out of it, no.
During the summer I finished a project to have up to 4 years of home heating oil (2 tanks) at any one time and although they recommend max of 2 years open air storage (and water does get in, sink to bottom and apparently microbes start eating at the biodiesel part), I'll chance it.

From running a motorhome/camper over the winter I learned to keep the tank full of diesel, otherwise cold weather would condense moisture in the inside of the tank. There is a drain tap on the fuel filter in Ducato's so you can bleed the water off.  This happened once in summer due to a cold snap and near empty tank.  Some Moho owners also are suspicious of supermarket diesel for being heavy on the water but I don't know if that is an urban myth.

I don't know how you'd solve it with a fixed tank as you describe?

[Castlevania]

28 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

My wife tells me she is struggling to get sugar.

Has anyone any thoughts on Tate and Lyle ?

Dividend 4.37&

PE: 13.04

They don’t make sugar anymore. 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If you're selling the riskier stocks shouldn't you sell those in the red as well as those in the black? I'm sort of playing devils advocate here. Unless there are compelling reasons why the losers are more likely to gain now. You didn't expect them all to be winners anyway. Of course if the losers are now near worthless then it is moot.

Fair question and I toy with it weekly.

I've left the ones in the red as I'm unwilling to simply take the loss ahead of a melt up.

If they look like they're staying down when the whole market is flying then they're lost. At that point I'll sell what's left (hoping some make it back toward break even) and feed it in to the old faithfuls.

Not talking mega money anyway but I just can't hit the sell button yet as I believe we're at the start of the melt up and their value may be partly saved.

Or......I'm full of shit scrambling for justification for my actions. It's like I'm my own market!

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It is probably this link from 2008. Few know about it and many would be angry if they did. One of those things that the media has never picked up on. Even doctors might not have the brassneck to reduce training further at this time.

https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

I defo heard it fairly recently but maybe it was just mentioned as part of the story about medical students being asked to defer a year and/or the 21% increase in applications.  Anyways,, like the apparent reduction in beds, odd to the layperson.