Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, No One said:

Thank you for confirming, sounds like a bad deal. I'll speak to HR and try to get them to move to my SIPP

Its not a bad spread and better than a lot iv seen in workplaces but my fees in my SIPP are tiny and over the longer term that makes a big difference,with an IFA the difference is around 1.6% a year to what i pay,incredible compounding that even is you equal returns.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, spygirl said:

ECB official and OECD warn of rising inflation risks

Surging energy prices and supply bottlenecks could feed into demand for higher wages

https://www.ft.com/content/55300c7b-ab06-40c4-a5f4-ed02ddb31374

 

Bundesbank's and German population will be s reaming for rate rises.

Like that "could lead to higher wage demands ",western democracies are bust without increases and thats exactly what they are wanting,a big uplift that increases tax revenues.UK sold a green ilt today 13 years i think at 0.89% coupon and BOE said it was ok to include in any QE,more monetize miss-allocated liquidity.It was a £10billion auction and £100billion was bid,nuts.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Politics aside, I think Kwasi Kwarteng will be the next Tory party leader/PM (heard it here first!). His current energy brief might be a poison chalice, but actually he has a first class academic brain and it looks to me like he's being covertly groomed for high office. Not a two horse race of course, but Kwarteng is an impressive speaker and thinker, whereas Sunak is a very damp (eat-out-to-help-out) squib. 

I don't vote conservative, but the conservatives are i think the governing party for the foreseeable, so its interesting to conjecture who might be next after Boris. Plus it kinda helps to inform who Labour may install next (after their very time-limited current leader; a 'Sir' Keir was never going to cut through). Though i expect the 'media darling' Burnham is pretty much a shoe-in.   

...but of course, as@DurhamBornregularly reminds us, the politics play is mostly a charade. And our 'leaders' always end up enacting the economic script.  

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

[HousePriceMania]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Laddering definitely helps, but I'm not a trader... so i employ the rather basic thesis of Marin Katusa - 'Invest like a (predatory) crocodile, and let the market (your prey) come to you!!'

Of course, as discussed on here recently, the danger is that whilst waiting patiently for say the BK to arrive, the ravages of time/inflation may first cause you (or your capitol) to go extinct!?!

 

https://www.cbc.ca/kidscbc2/the-feed/5-animals-with-prehistoric-ancestors

Modern crocodiles and alligators are almost unchanged from their ancient ancestors of the Cretaceous period (about 145–66 million years ago).

Crocs have outlived everything pretty much.

 

[Sidd]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Sidd, but can i ask is Avino Silver and Gold a long term hold for you or is it mainly a speculative buy? I ask because last time i looked Avino silver and gold had no producing mines. And unfortunately that is one of my red-flags in terms of evaluating risk, simply because i don't have great knowledge of the sector so am pretty risk averse.

Avino in particular was more on the speculative side for me, specifically for the reason you mentioned. I think I will look to sell most of my smaller holding in it but retain some, as I think it was Durhamborn who once said that when the sector runs fundamentals are less important and everything with silver in its name will go up.

[Loki]

Float like a crocodile, sting like a margin call

OR something

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

I posted that and then read that Sir Keir is alienating the unions trying change Labour's voting system. Burnham might get in before the next election.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58637086

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58644894

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

Both main parties are divided and need to sort out their internal factions (Tory cabinet infighting is why I think the covid policies have been so chaotic). Interesting you mention Truss as she, along with Priti Patel, Raab and Kwarteng are founding members of the 'Britain Unchained' group of Thatcherites, and I believe this group's thinking will dominate Tory direction going forward. However my base case is that when the public are faced with the sheer size and scope of the struggles ahead, plus the realisation of how they have been misled and lied to in the past, that will enable a new political party to emerge. I am still undecided as to whether a new party can win power outright, or just force weak coalitions. But I guess that by say 2030 the new priorities of the global economic and monetary whirlwind will sweep aside most national politics, and render it almost irrelevant. My interest in what happens politically between now and this decade-end is mostly in regard to understanding and in the hope that we can  encourage and support leaders who will at least attempt to safeguard our British institutions and rights.

[Bricks & Mortar]

Apologies if this has already been posted.  I've spent 2 hours reading the last week of posts, and didn't see it, or find it on the site's search function... but there's so much, it's possible I missed something.

Max Keiser.  From last week.  Show is titled, "The Coming Great Deflation."

0- 7.10 Max & Stacey discuss small countries turning to Bitcoin because of lack of dollars to buy imports.

7.10 - 12:30  Max & Stacey discuss how China ain't doing so bad, really.

12:40 - onward, Max Keiser talks to Michael Pento, about his latest letter to followers, entitled "The Great Deflation of 2022".

Nothing here is news to the thread.  But there's a talking head, on MSM, saying what we're thinking.
 

 

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Rather ironic that an ex-Communist country can `play` the Capitalists better at their own game.

Russia sold gas to the west all through the cold war, and used the dollars earned to buy weapons to use against the USA and the west.

It's a theatre...

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

Nah.

Eyebrows problem is that hes a moron. Anyone whos sat near him and listened is instantly anti Burnham.

Labours problem is that is are devoid of any leader. And everyone hates everyone.

Their best bet is Dan Jarvis. At least the voters like him.

 

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

Resurgence of the LibDems until they `bottle` it again, and then go into the wilderness for another 15 years?

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Both main parties are divided and need to sort out their internal factions (Tory cabinet infighting is why I think the covid policies have been so chaotic). Interesting you mention Truss as she, along with Priti Patel, Raab and Kwarteng are founding members of the 'Britain Unchained' group of Thatcherites, and I believe this group's thinking will dominate Tory direction going forward. However my base case is that when the public are faced with the sheer size and scope of the struggles ahead, plus the realisation of how they have been misled and lied to in the past, that will enable a new political party to emerge. I am still undecided as to whether a new party can win power outright, or just force weak coalitions. But I guess that by say 2030 the new priorities of the global economic and monetary whirlwind will sweep aside most national politics, and render it almost irrelevant. My interest in what happens politically between now and this decade-end is mostly in regard to understanding and in the hope that we can  encourage and support leaders who will at least attempt to safeguard our British institutions and rights.

I do hope you are right...but then I also believe in the tooth fairy! :-(

[Harley]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Their best bet is Dan Jarvis. At least the voters like him.

Only because no-one's heard of him.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Apologies if this has already been posted. 

Your good, cheers!

[Hancock]

8 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Apologies if this has already been posted.  I've spent 2 hours reading the last week of posts, and didn't see it, or find it on the site's search function... but there's so much, it's possible I missed something.

Max Keiser.  From last week.  Show is titled, "The Coming Great Deflation."

0- 7.10 Max & Stacey discuss small countries turning to Bitcoin because of lack of dollars to buy imports.

7.10 - 12:30  Max & Stacey discuss how China ain't doing so bad, really.

12:40 - onward, Max Keiser talks to Michael Pento, about his latest letter to followers, entitled "The Great Deflation of 2022".

Nothing here is news to the thread.  But there's a talking head, on MSM, saying what we're thinking.
 

 

He's entertaining, but usually wrong.

[M S E Refugee]

Any thoughts on Thungela Resources?

Keep hearing chatter of how it's making money hand over fist and that it could pay a £1 divi per share.

I have bought a few of their shares lately.

[Hancock]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

It no longer matters (probably never did), they're all identical and for the rentier economy, unaffordable housing, mass immigration, huge govt etc... 

Most of them should be locked up for treason.

[Hancock]

BP is steaming ahead ... looks like i'll be holding out for a dip of sorts, as i've bottled the other 2.

Come on FED tighten faster than we expect today to get this crash in motion.

[planit]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

He's entertaining, but usually wrong.

 

And now he is so deep into BitCoin that he can't be trusted for an honest opinion. 

He is a vested interest not a commentator.

 

[jamtomorrow]

33 minutes ago, Hancock said:

BP is steaming ahead ... looks like i'll be holding out for a dip of sorts, as i've bottled the other 2.

Come on FED tighten faster than we expect today to get this crash in motion.

Same for me with the stock that shall not be mentioned. I'd even consider buying above the March 2020 price, now they're changing their tune on nuclear.

Bit of white smoke puffing out the chimney of today's politburo meet would certainly be nice.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

Agreed.Labour have lost support in huge chunks of the working(and I mean working)class.Brexit/Trans rights/immigration etc etc.I can't see them ever getting back in.

This set up is ripe for a populist right party.Thus far,there are a number of disparate groups milling around-Reform,Heritage(David Kurten,very socially conservative),Reclaim,Ukip.

At some point they will form up together(except maybe Heritage who have a hardline Pro Life manifesto commitment) and under a leader who can unify the coalition,they will do untold damage to the Tories.

Our electoral system covers up huge structural issues because it's normally only worth voting for the top two and supporting small parties is disincentivized.

12 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

It's hard to see who they could pick that would make meaningful inroads into the problems they have in red wall seats.Burnham does look a good bet for them.

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

What would worry me if I was Labour(I'm a long time Ukip voter until the last couple of years) is that with all these people needing the 'free ' money,they still can't win.

Systemic collapse is coming and then I suspect all hell will break loose later in the 20's with both hard right and left rising.

11 hours ago, JMD said:

Both main parties are divided and need to sort out their internal factions (Tory cabinet infighting is why I think the covid policies have been so chaotic). Interesting you mention Truss as she, along with Priti Patel, Raab and Kwarteng are founding members of the 'Britain Unchained' group of Thatcherites, and I believe this group's thinking will dominate Tory direction going forward. However my base case is that when the public are faced with the sheer size and scope of the struggles ahead, plus the realisation of how they have been misled and lied to in the past, that will enable a new political party to emerge. I am still undecided as to whether a new party can win power outright, or just force weak coalitions. But I guess that by say 2030 the new priorities of the global economic and monetary whirlwind will sweep aside most national politics, and render it almost irrelevant. My interest in what happens politically between now and this decade-end is mostly in regard to understanding and in the hope that we can  encourage and support leaders who will at least attempt to safeguard our British institutions and rights.

It looks very likely from a historical perpsective.A new party only needs30% of the votes in the right seats and it can rule. Also,as economies deleverage or become unstable,voters tend towards extremes historically.

Blair won 2005 with 35% of the vote

https://www.ukpolitical.info/2005.htm

More intriguing was the Scottish aspect of teh result,the SNP won 45% of the vote and got 81% of the seats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/scotland

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Same for me with the stock that shall not be mentioned. I'd even consider buying above the March 2020 price, now they're changing their tune on nuclear.

Bit of white smoke puffing out the chimney of today's politburo meet would certainly be nice.

Yes there are so many reasons why the stock market/economy could implode .... and the 1 reason why it may not i.e. they've printed like never before, is possibly the more important one.

Will sit tight though and see what happens in the coming weeks.

I should have had the sense to put my house money into the markets in March 2020/ October 2020, though i did think shutting the economy would guarantee a HPC.