Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ah, Stagecoach popped a bit recently!  Maybe I'll get me losses back? 

Iv played the sector pretty badly considering.I owned it too early,got smashed on those last March etc,but bought a lot in National,Go Ahead and Stagecoach at the bottom,so ended up with a decent profit,but it should of been far higher.I think this merger is good news for shareholders.My partner has some Stagecoach at average £1.02 so eliminating most of the red is good news because she nags me on that and Centrica  ,

Its actually pleasing when you have to go back and look over mistakes and try to understand them.Im finding most of mine the last few years have been simple timing issues.Ladders really helped,but didnt avoid entering too early in some areas.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Forgive my ignorance but I've been too foccussed on the Covid nonsense to follow more relevant topics that the Covid scare has been designed to hide.

Why have gas prices increased so much. The gas in the ground is still there, distribution costs and maintenance of pipe lines can't have increased to any great extent. 

Has demand increased to cause the spike in price?

Very little storage. No wind for a prolonged period meant we burned more for electricity. Ditto solar. Cold winter last year so less in storage to start with. Similar in Europe where storage is also low. LNG bid up on global markets with supply going to Asia. Slow arrival time means that there is risk paying high prices for LNG in advance although we must be doing so now.

Electricity is a mess caused by green subsidy and price caps preventing investment.

[sleepwello'nights]

19 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Very little storage.

Electricity is a mess caused by green subsidy and price caps preventing investment.

In essence Russia taking advantage of demand. 

Possibly free of the constraints a dominant USA could impose?

We're all electric in our new house. As I posted a while ago our electricity costs would have been double the combined gas and electric fuel of our slightly smaller previous house. Looking like the differential is now shrinking. Until electricty prices increase .

Lets see how long my new entrant supplier lasts and whether I get the full benefit of the one year fix I chose. 

Unit Rate per kWh 12.514

Daily Standing charge 12.000p

[Hancock]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've heard nothing but utter bollox come out of his mouth since this blew up, he simply doesn't grasp the problem. As I said a few weeks back, frozen old people on the front page of the Daily Mail will focus minds, but I'm really hoping it doesn't come to that.

They get the problem, but this govt only like decisions where they give people money.

Unless it comes to taxing the plebs.

[DurhamBorn]

I have 2023 as being when gas really gets squeezed.

All this inflation will feed into wages of course,and massive political battles over things like council tax.Telcos inflation +3.9% increases will be nice now they are kicking in to 4% inflation.

The state is far too big in the UK now and so inflation will be much higher than they think.

What im enjoying the most here is not so much financial returns etc,but the fact my work was saying the backbone of the economy couldnt sustain the demands on it on the present (then) structure and inflation was certain or systemic collapse.It was the key inflection point,and to now see it playing out strongly is very satisfying.

Inflation will now do its job of cuttting back demand while investment goes after the price increases.However the energy minister looks clueless about whats needed.The price cap is a disaster for starters.

[HousePriceMania]

Nothing makes sense any more.

[NogintheNog]

57 minutes ago, Hancock said:

To think full grown adults have sat down in a room and come up with that, and not one of them has called it out for being complete and utter bollocks. Sad thing is its normal in the 2020s.

 

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The state is far too big in the UK now and so inflation will be much higher than they think.

Was watching Newsnight last night, and the first piece was on the gas price increases and fallout;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000zym2/newsnight-20092021

No one from the government was available (surprise, surprise!) But a Labour and Conservative MP, along with a single mother debated the problems. The two MP's were frankly a waste of space, Labour would use the magic money tree and the ConLabs denied there was a real problem. The single Mum on UC and working was saying she would be choosing between turning on the heating and feeding her daughter!

The question I wanted someone to ask was "Where's the Father of your Daughter, and what's he paying in?"

As you say @Hancock sad thing is this is normal in 2020s, you are the exception to the rule, the taxpayer will pick up the cost ultimately. Not via tax but much more likely via inflation, the hidden tax.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

We are pretty much at the bottom of the solar cycle right now.

Its amazing the correlation between solar minima and pandemics... no really it is... you would think they were related to the lack of sunlight/sun power or something

I am not a scientist but sunlight (the ultraviolet) is a mild disinfectant and kills germs, so why not? 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv played the sector pretty badly considering.I owned it too early,got smashed on those last March etc,but bought a lot in National,Go Ahead and Stagecoach at the bottom,so ended up with a decent profit,but it should of been far higher.I think this merger is good news for shareholders.My partner has some Stagecoach at average £1.02 so eliminating most of the red is good news because she nags me on that and Centrica  ,

Its actually pleasing when you have to go back and look over mistakes and try to understand them.Im finding most of mine the last few years have been simple timing issues.Ladders really helped,but didnt avoid entering too early in some areas.

Agreed. 

At least get an education for the cost!  I've plenty to learn and have no problem learning other than ensuring the nuance is understood as things rarely repeat in the same way.

I've got lossess on loads of stuff like GOG, etc when buying them in the years running up to 2020 as a buy and hold.  Macro sound stuff but I've learnt (more importantly adressed) macro is but one leg, the others being technical and fundamental.  Too many good stories built on sand.  I would have bought very few of these dogs if I had used today's approach back then.  Alas, that's why I'm still cautious on some of your ideas given the fundamentals of some stocks.  But if I see some moves....

But another lesson, something I did flirt with at the time, was to trade their 2020 bounce to exit evens.  I think I need to fold some trading into my value base approach, time permitting.  For now, maybe I just need a more speculative element to my portfolio.  Being one of the few rationale kids on the block means you don't get invited to many good parties!

[M S E Refugee]

There's a bit of excitement around JKX Oil & Gas.

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=JKX&share=Jkx-Oil-and-Gas

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The sun does, and we currently have very low sunspot activity. Why no one pays attention to this anymore is beyond me, perhaps you can't do your attention seeking there and block a road on the sun.

Definitely agree CP. I think that future history-books will write 'it' was obvious - as plain as the sun in the sky perhaps! ...How they will laugh at us, and our modern-day carbon-miasma theories!!

Gentle souls like Piers Corbyn and Neil Oliver (both opposite ends of the political spectrum) repeatedly warn that the emperor has no clothes, but they are ridiculed. Not trying to be obtuse - the whole debate around man-made global-warming is a glaring example of the creeping cancer that is 'un-critical thinking', not to mention mass hysterias of all kinds, all of which must surely be early signs of a 'turning-point' in human history... But whether that 'turning' be a Neil Howe 4th-Turning (good?), or a WEF Reset (bad?), who knows?

 

But btw, has anyone seen Neil Oliver on GBNews? I have only seen clips of him via the recommended links Google keeps throwing at me, but he seems to be going full tin-foil hat. Perhaps i'm being unfair, given my own remarks above. But he is a very eloquent chap i must say.

 

[Option5]

OK, I've just received some post regarding a small pension I'd forgotten about that I can start collecting. The value is just under £29k paying out GAR of £2260 per year.

Bearing in mind that I no longer live or pay tax in the UK do I cash it out or take the monthly and hope I live long enough to make a profit ?

I understand that  you're not authorised financial advisers etc.

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, Option5 said:

OK, I've just received some post regarding a small pension I'd forgotten about that I can start collecting. The value is just under £29k paying out GAR of £2260 per year.

Bearing in mind that I no longer live or pay tax in the UK do I cash it out or take the monthly and hope I live long enough to make a profit ?

I understand that  you're not authorised financial advisers etc.

Is it index linked ?

 

If so, keep it.  Just check it's not capped.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I am not a scientist but sunlight (the ultraviolet) is a mild disinfectant and kills germs, so why not? 

UV-C is actually higher, that's the one that kills viruses and possibly why the sun has a biting feel to it now. 

However you're onto something, UV-B is what we use to make vitamin D, but it looks like we get increased cloud cover during these times, so less Vit D for the immune system.

It's also probably to do with the 'electromagnetic shield' of Earth being lower so we are more influenced by space weather, and it is definitely letting more particles through which affect us in known and unknown ways. (The science isn't settled)

Sounds mad but it's true...So I have deliberately chosen a couple of 'standard issue' links where anything controversial gets memoryholed 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cosmic-rays-burst-magnetic-shield

Had to laugh a this...there's that T word again  (article from 2016)

Quote

According to the study, the burst in cosmic activity indicated a “transient weakening of Earth’s magnetic shield”. Further research into the chance event may “hold clues for a better understanding of future superstorms that could cripple modern technological infrastructure on Earth,” the study’s authors write.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58636467.amp

 

The sound of pennies dropping........... 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58636467.amp

 

The sound of pennies dropping........... 

Read some of the comments. It will be a very difficult winter but when has it not been. Nice to see I hope a lot of the woke greenies being pissed off with having to pay more to keep warm. Maybe, just maybe the penny has dropped. PMSL at some of the comments..... Brexit.... oh do fuck off lol.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

I'll pick up more platinum if it goes sub 900. Seems to be the metal no one is interested in yet is historically 2x gold.

Still have 30 percent cash reserve for a BK.

Yes, i bought my physical (well actually etf) platinum for similar reason. I didn't buy gold but plan to pivot from platinum into gold if/when it rises 2-3-4x(?) gold... well that's the plan, a risk, but worth taking i think.

In fact i think these type of 'arbitrage trades' are great. For me, they hit the risk/reward sweet spot - because i am not a trader - of being actively in the asset class, plus able to pivot/part pivot, etc into something 'better'/less volatile/more long-term, etc... Only wish there were more of these types of opportunities - though i guess in reality i am seeking the holy grail of investing, i.e. quiet an ask!!... But does anyone here have some related ideas?

 

(I do hold lots of the gold miners though, but again would have much preferred to have loaded up much more on the silver miners. However, didn't know which ones to buy back when they were cheap, so opportunity lost i think?)

 

 

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

The new supplier doesn't have to honour the customer's existing contract:

There was a poor unfortunate man on TV this morning saying his bill had doubled. Personally I would like to wish him all the best, no doubt you vultures will just be thinking "thanks for the money you mug"

Personally I don't sit in judgement of that unfortunate man (except perhaps his maths skills?) - but i do wonder whether he will continue using his Greta key-chain for his Nissan Leaf?

...Oops, i appear to have inadvertently judged him after all!! I shall immediately plant a tree to honor him... whats the saying, 'let a thousand flowers/Nissan Leafs bloom'!?  

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

In essence Russia taking advantage of demand. 

Possibly free of the constraints a dominant USA could impose?

We're all electric in our new house. As I posted a while ago our electricity costs would have been double the combined gas and electric fuel of our slightly smaller previous house. Looking like the differential is now shrinking. Until electricty prices increase .

Lets see how long my new entrant supplier lasts and whether I get the full benefit of the one year fix I chose. 

Unit Rate per kWh 12.514

Daily Standing charge 12.000p

Who's your supplier?

[Sidd]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

(I do hold lots of the gold miners though, but again would have much preferred to have loaded up much more on the silver miners. However, didn't know which ones to buy back when they were cheap, so opportunity lost i think?)

Some would say the opportunity is now. Most of mine have been smashed since theirs highs a few months back (First majestic, Avino, Endeavour to name a few). 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just had some BS come through from a big company we do work for, 10 years ago they referred to their work as a business, 5 years ago it was a mission, it has just turned into 'a purpose' so I'm glad they still have that and money doesn't come into it any more...

Please don't 'indulge' them!

Sorry, i couldn't resist (the 'connection' was jumping out at me) but then i have become just a little bit obsessed with the term/word, since learning of its root.

But not completely off-thread i think, its somehow relevant to our creeping (creepy?) economic times i fear?! Anyway, for more details:  Indulgence - Wikipedia

[sleepwello'nights]

23 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Who's your supplier?

Symbio. That tariff is no longer available. Just looked and they are not accepting any new customers.

Get Quote | Symbio Energy | Price Guarantee Promise | Cheap and green energy in UK (symbiogetquote.co.uk)

[No One]

@DurhamBorn I have a new job, and with it a new pension.

Just received the paperwork through the mail this morning, I'm with Standard Life and this is their product.

Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3

 

 

 

From what I can see, it's a fund made up of funds.

My question to you is, do they skim commission on the funds in the funds as well as the discounted 0.4% per year?

You seem to be an expert on this, my first impression is that it looks shit and should ask HR to redirect my pension contributions to my SIPP. If that's an option.

 

 

 

[planit]

14 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Symbio. That tariff is no longer available. Just looked and they are not accepting any new customers.

Get Quote | Symbio Energy | Price Guarantee Promise | Cheap and green energy in UK (symbiogetquote.co.uk)

Add them to the insolvent list then. Waiting to see if they get bailed out.

[AlfredTheLittle]

15 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Symbio. That tariff is no longer available. Just looked and they are not accepting any new customers.

Get Quote | Symbio Energy | Price Guarantee Promise | Cheap and green energy in UK (symbiogetquote.co.uk)

Thanks, I'll keep an eye on it, hopefully will open up again once the current panic's over. Your rate is less than half mine, which was apparently the best available last week.

[wherebee]

On 20/09/2021 at 22:41, wherebee said:

Yeah, just bought 3k GBP worth at 52.86.  Let's see whether it's a fun party to join!

up 100 quid. YAY!

This is a lot more fun than having to think about the collapse of Australian democracy...