Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

Inventories for crude down again in the US 

Four of the top 5 gainers in the S+P oil and gas producers.

End of driving season in the US now so interesting to see how that and falling frack wells meet.

Industry in the US pushing to block LNG exports as Henri Hub keeps increasing,

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/092021-industrials-group-points-to-winter-gas-price-increase-to-push-for-limits-on-us-lng-exports

 

 

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wait till CIS gets scrapped

This is new to me, what's happening?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

This is new to me, what's happening?

I came off CIS about 4 years ago. I have been hammered for tax in the last 2 years. They pretty much want 100% of my earnings this and next year.

I am falling out with the F##kers to be honest.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

This is new to me, what's happening?

HMRC tried this yrs ago. I think with the changes to IR 35 have driven costs up for management personnel.

I reckon this covid1984 bullshit is a chance to fill the bennie pockets of the back of subbies whos bodies are fucked at 45yrs old .

Levelling up my arse. Cunts.

[MvR]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Same. Trades, management types, sub contractors all saying they are just waiting for it to go tits up. Heard the same from a ground working company 5weeks ago, different job location. Spoke today to a chippy gaffer who told me 2 of the jobs his firm were due to start have been put on hold ( medium sized jobs).

Wait till CIS gets scrapped. Demotivation on speed. Even shitter builds me thinks. 
 

Chatting to the engineer fixing up various narrowboat issues for me and he's got lots of boats waiting for parts to arrive before he can fix something.

He's able to keep busy because a lot of his work requires more general parts and supplies or substitute options, but he was saying loads of companies are going to fail as they can't turn over enough work to pay their fixed outgoings. 

[Hancock]

18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I came off CIS about 4 years ago. I have been hammered for tax in the last 2 years. They pretty much want 100% of my earnings this and next year.

I am falling out with the F##kers to be honest.

Cant you just form a ltd company if you're working for different people?

Fuck being a builder on PAYE, and fuck owning a company having to pay people who were once contractors sick pay etc... not exactly a sound business model when days are rained off ... or when materials can't/don't get delivered.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Cant you just form a ltd company if you're working for different people?

Fuck being a builder on PAYE, and fuck owning a company having to pay people who were once contractors sick pay etc... not exactly a sound business model when days are rained off ... or when materials can't/don't get delivered.

 I am a sole trader, don't normally get up before 9am.

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, MvR said:

Chatting to the engineer fixing up various narrowboat issues for me and he's got lots of boats waiting for parts to arrive before he can fix something.

He's able to keep busy because a lot of his work requires more general parts and supplies or substitute options, but he was saying loads of companies are going to fail as they can't turn over enough work to pay their fixed outgoings. 

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

[reformed nice guy]

Another anecdote to throw in the mix.

At a local community group Im a part of, the person that is normally our contact with the local council is retiring early. The local councillor said that the whole council is looking to make lots of cuts, reducing hiring, redundancies because they are struggling with the extra NI payments.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting thread on China being desperate for LNG, and also on their energy troubles in general. 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In laymens terms,whats the sun spots thing all about?

Until the 1980's there was almost direct correlation between sun spot activity and world temperature, freakily so in fact. However the proponents of the theory say there are other factors, including the sun's magnetic pole flipping - which happens between the solar cycles, each cycle is approx 25 years - I believe this reduces energy of the solar flares. Plus they challenge the accuracy of the temperature measurements here on earth, saying increases in 'average temp' are distorted due to the siting of the measuring stations themselves, because due to urban sprawl, many stations are effectively 'moving closer' to any adjacent town and therefore affected more by the town's higher urbanised temp... I think this theory has holes of course, but I also think the authorised carbon theory has holes. It's just that the so called solution to remove carbon fuels is so laughably unrealistic, that I can't also help but be suspicious toward those who push for radical decarbonisation.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

[wherebee]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

Hey, I'm supposed to be the doomster!

Seriously, though, I've closed out just about everything except the oilies, GDXJ, ARB, Centrica, and a couple of small miners.  

If, as I suspect, this winter is going to be very very rocky in the northern hemisphere, I don't want to be watching shares such as BAT crater when I could have sold at a profit.

Oilies, I suspect, do better as society unwinds, as the powers that be will be desperate for energy.

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im getting very very worried my roadmap on lots of production coming home,is very right,but there could be systemic collapse before it happens.The none productive government and council workers office types are mostly at home doing very little while the private sector is about to grind to a halt.The government is proving a disaster and seem to have little understanding of the disaster.Today another of our great growth companies Entain looks like going,we owned the sector on here of course,but we could end up with just government green gilts to invest in.Sunaks autumn statement is going to be very interesting.

I only have Playtech left of the gambling companies I was buying two to three years ago, which is largely going sideways. When are they going to be taken out?

Caesars in retrospect got William Hill for a snip. They’ve already recouped most of the money by selling off the European business to 888 and the casinos to private equity. 

 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

My cousin is a GP and he thinks that initial appointments via video call as a sort of triage is fantastic. You weed out the serial hypochondriacs who are constantly wasting your time. So there is a way to make GP’s more efficient, however knowing the government they’ll bin it and go back to the old system.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

Same. Trades, management types, sub contractors all saying they are just waiting for it to go tits up. Heard the same from a ground working company 5weeks ago, different job location. Spoke today to a chippy gaffer who told me 2 of the jobs his firm were due to start have been put on hold ( medium sized jobs).

Wait till CIS gets scrapped. Demotivation on speed. Even shitter builds me thinks. 
 

Wait until the government start issuing Essential Labour Certificates for foreign workers (they won't use passports as thats a dirty word).....and it won't be their fault as `you` the care assistant/builder/teacher/nurse etc `chose` not to be vaccinated....The current government on has two management approaches

1. To `throw` money at the problem, and

2. To backtrack on any election promises/statements due to "Covid was an exceptional circumstance and so unforeseen"...

...it begs the question, management is all about managing unforeseen circumstances so what do they perceive their job to be then?!

[Barnsey]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://boereport.com/2021/09/21/column-looming-european-energy-crisis-a-lesson-in-averages-that-wont-soon-be-forgotten/

I still dont think the government understands the disaster.No doubt their answer will be to increase handouts to the benny brigade forcing up costs more and more on those just above welfare level.

Can they please stop saying by a penny, and say 1%. That's a lot of f***ing pennies for us.

[Noallegiance]

I felt the need late last night to sell down my zero div gamble stocks that were in the black and some of the smaller holdings with small divs.

Rather than stressing to time anything I fed my winnings into big energy and materials companies with high divs. Partly to catch the rest of a melt up but also if it goes pop and I don't take more profit before-hand I've got mostly stocks that pay me to have them except GDXJ and the 4 or 5 non div payers that are in the red.

I can't control anything else.

[Majorpain]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Also recall the winters 11 and 12 years ago. 09, 10. There was snow on the ground fir a month and temperatures down to minus 20 at night. Another solar minimum. How people forget.

Edit: 

I don't recall it being very windy either, cold., clear days. We may dodge the bullet this winter and get by by the skin of our teeth, again, but to even be facing this risk is an abject failure of government. I repeat: I could hand pick you another 5 old gas reservoirs exactly like Rough currently being abandoned. That means steel cut off and cement poured down the holes. This is happening right now, today. Great story there for you journos, if you're reading.

If you check out recessions and solar minimums, you find there is a fair amount of correlation between the two.  It makes sense that if food prices increase due to less yield due to less sunlight, people have less to spend on other goods with the direct effect GDP decreases.  Of course, that would mean admitting Central Banks are not omnipotent, and they wont do that!  

[Barnsey]

Brace yourself folks...

 

[belfastchild]

4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

If you check out recessions and solar minimums, you find there is a fair amount of correlation between the two.  It makes sense that if food prices increase due to less yield due to less sunlight, people have less to spend on other goods with the direct effect GDP decreases.  Of course, that would mean admitting Central Banks are not omnipotent, and they wont do that!  

@Cattle Prod according to my Facebook timeline, snowed in here for a while January 2008, on and off Jan to March 2013. I had snowchains rattling around in my boot from about 2009 to 2013 and used them a lot in 2013. Cant remember using them since.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

@Cattle Prod according to my Facebook timeline, snowed in here for a while January 2008, on and off Jan to March 2013. I had snowchains rattling around in my boot from about 2009 to 2013 and used them a lot in 2013. Cant remember using them since.

Leads and lags , ocean temps etc

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Globally, oil inventories drew down at 3mbpd last week. That is very fast, historically. What's going to happen if we start burning oil this winter to supplement gas, or start running diesel gennies?

Looks like most coal that can be switched on against gas is,so heavy oil will be next.Government doesnt get it yet though,they think we just need more windmills missin the point.RR racing up,market sniffs small nuclear coming i think.

[Barnsey]

Seems the government backing away from bailing out smaller energy firms after all.. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Wait until the government start issuing Essential Labour Certificates for foreign workers (they won't use passports as thats a dirty word).....and it won't be their fault as `you` the care assistant/builder/teacher/nurse etc `chose` not to be vaccinated....The current government on has two management approaches

1. To `throw` money at the problem, and

2. To backtrack on any election promises/statements due to "Covid was an exceptional circumstance and so unforeseen"...

...it begs the question, management is all about managing unforeseen circumstances so what do they perceive their job to be then?!

What will they do when they run out of money? Lack of money isn't a problem you can throw money at.

The problem they could face is what to cut.