Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Hey, I'm supposed to be the doomster!

Seriously, though, I've closed out just about everything except the oilies, GDXJ, ARB, Centrica, and a couple of small miners.  

If, as I suspect, this winter is going to be very very rocky in the northern hemisphere, I don't want to be watching shares such as BAT crater when I could have sold at a profit.

Oilies, I suspect, do better as society unwinds, as the powers that be will be desperate for energy.

I could be tied to a chair with Krankie ramming a red hot poker up my backside demanding the password so she can sell my BAT and id just laugh.I sold them above £50 after decades and missed them like crazy.Getting them back at £25 was wonderful and il never sell 1 share in them again.If they ever do go to hell im going with them.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

Cant you just form a ltd company if you're working for different people?

Fuck being a builder on PAYE, and fuck owning a company having to pay people who were once contractors sick pay etc... not exactly a sound business model when days are rained off ... or when materials can't/don't get delivered.

Seen it many times.  Comes in waves.  Start small and then add staff.  Next your running around trying to keep them busy and cover your costs (e.g. you!).  Fine if you're in with the council, etc, until you're not.  Then the turn down comes, no revenue to cover the fixed costs, let them go or go kaput, and back to you, the van and the dog, and a happy life you'd forgotten about!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I felt the need late last night to sell down my zero div gamble stocks that were in the black and some of the smaller holdings with small divs.

Rather than stressing to time anything I fed my winnings into big energy and materials companies with high divs. Partly to catch the rest of a melt up but also if it goes pop and I don't take more profit before-hand I've got mostly stocks that pay me to have them except GDXJ and the 4 or 5 non div payers that are in the red.

I can't control anything else.

If you're selling the riskier stocks shouldn't you sell those in the red as well as those in the black? I'm sort of playing devils advocate here. Unless there are compelling reasons why the losers are more likely to gain now. You didn't expect them all to be winners anyway. Of course if the losers are now near worthless then it is moot.

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iron-ore-prices-buckle-as-evergrande-adds-to-china-concerns-11632382224

 

SYDNEY—The crisis engulfing property developer China Evergrande Group is causing iron-ore prices to buckle, as investors worry that pressure on China’s huge property market will translate into lower appetite for steel.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I could be tied to a chair with Krankie ramming a red hot poker up my backside demanding the password so she can sell my BAT and id just laugh.I sold them above £50 after decades and missed them like crazy.Getting them back at £25 was wonderful and il never sell 1 share in them again.If they ever do go to hell im going with them.

I was going to post that I thought people smoked more in bad times. I was going to check the data first but that will wait.

A bit like the woman in the corner shop this morning buying £5 of scratch cards. Said to the shopkeeper that she felt knackered. Just stopped myself from telling her that she looked knackered and that was only from what I could see from behind. Anyway the point is she was having a hard time and threw her money away on something that won't improve it. Smoking is different, people enjoy it. They don't stop when they feel down.

[Hancock]

Just now, Harley said:

Seen it many times.  Comes in waves.  Start small and then add staff.  Next your running around trying to keep them busy and cover your costs (e.g. you!).  Fine if you're in with the council, etc, until you're not.  Then the turn down comes, no revenue to cover the fixed costs, let them go or go kaput, and back to you, the van and the dog, and a happy life you'd forgotten about!

Oh yes sod employing people, but just use it as a vehicle to invoice and be a one man band.

Times have changed, i remember working on building sites in the first part of the 90s and meeting builders in their 40s who had worked cash in hand their entire life ... they thought SC60 (which i believe preceded CIS) was an abomination as they'd have to start paying into the system ... and answer as to where they'd been the last 25 years or more!

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I was going to post that I thought people smoked more in bad times. I was going to check the data first but that will wait.

A bit like the woman in the corner shop this morning buying £5 of scratch cards. Said to the shopkeeper that she felt knackered. Just stopped myself from telling her that she looked knackered and that was only from what I could see from behind. Anyway the point is she was having a hard time and threw her money away on something that won't improve it. Smoking is different, people enjoy it. They don't stop when they feel down.

It used to be said that the real growth industries during a recession were pubs and bookies/lotteries.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

You're not picking on the GPs as they are just an excellent example of your spot on point.  Note the GPs recently voted to restrict further new doctor numbers FFS!  They have the best trade union going.  We have an ageing population and presumably many are now winding down, as they would but no doubt accelerated by covid and other toxic things that continue to circulate.  Other areas include the trades (already well under way thanks to Blair & Co) and farming.  They're even paying incentives for farmers to retire!  I don't know what HMG's end game is but there's going to be an increasingly crunchy crunch!  At it's hopefully going to hit the prats that have lorded over us into this place on social media, media, etc the most.  You know, the ones who wear sandals 'cause they can't even tie shoe laces!  Yes, people are angry, the net contributors the very, very most.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Hey, I'm supposed to be the doomster!

Seriously, though, I've closed out just about everything except the oilies, GDXJ, ARB, Centrica, and a couple of small miners.  

If, as I suspect, this winter is going to be very very rocky in the northern hemisphere, I don't want to be watching shares such as BAT crater when I could have sold at a profit.

Oilies, I suspect, do better as society unwinds, as the powers that be will be desperate for energy.

Sell up and/or decomplex back to the sources of (or should that be "for") need (i.e. our lovies)?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Oh yes sod employing people, but just use it as a vehicle to invoice and be a one man band.

Times have changed, i remember working on building sites in the first part of the 90s and meeting builders in their 40s who had worked cash in hand their entire life ... they thought SC60 (which i believe preceded CIS) was an abomination as they'd have to start paying into the system ... and answer as to where they'd been the last 25 years or more!

Do you think those early 90s builders were underpaid because the tax was avoided? So they're not going to be paying tax so we can pay them less?

 

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

You're not picking on the GPs as they are just an excellent example of your spot on point.  Note the GPs recently voted to restrict further new doctor numbers FFS!  We have an ageing population and presumably many are now winding down, as they would but no doubt accelerated by covid and other toxic things that continue to circulate.  Other areas include the trades (already well under way thanks to Blair & Co) and farming.  They're even paying incentives for farmers to retire!  I don't know what HMG's end game is but there's going to be an increasingly crunchy crunch!  At it's hopefully going to hit the prats that have lorded over us into this place on social media, media, etc the most.  You know, the ones who wear sandals 'cause they can't even tie shoe laces!  Yes, people are angry, the net contributors the very, very most.

Harley, I didn't see this vote to further restrict doctor training. I know that the BMA voted to restrict this several years ago but not that they had doubled down lately. Have you got a link for that?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

My cousin is a GP and he thinks that initial appointments via video call as a sort of triage is fantastic. You weed out the serial hypochondriacs who are constantly wasting your time. So there is a way to make GP’s more efficient, however knowing the government they’ll bin it and go back to the old system.

An area due massive reform.  Hopefully these tensions will bring that about.  Telemedicine indeed has an excellent place (indeed why not international access?!), other medics can do more, nursing degrees can be scrapped, punitive fees introduced to deter the worried well and others, more preventative health, more clinics, AI (triage, etc), etc.  One of the few areas yet to be re-engineered.  So some potential upside, but then we have our current administrative class to implement....OFG!

PS:  Telemedicine is already included in some company health plans.

[planit]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inventories for crude down again in the US 

Four of the top 5 gainers in the S+P oil and gas producers.

End of driving season in the US now so interesting to see how that and falling frack wells meet.

Industry in the US pushing to block LNG exports as Henri Hub keeps increasing,

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/092021-industrials-group-points-to-winter-gas-price-increase-to-push-for-limits-on-us-lng-exports

 

 

 

US imports were 700kbpd higher last week than the week before. This kept the headline figure up a bit

(would have been 0.7x7=4.9mmbpd lower) and the market suppressed in my opinion (oil still lower than a week ago).

Be interesting to see if the imports keep moving higher, this will take supply off elsewhere but might result in the US stockpiles increasing again.

Attention must  move from gas to oil soon. As was said earlier, there will be diesel generators burning this winter since gas prices are so high.

 

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I could be tied to a chair with Krankie ramming a red hot poker up my backside demanding the password so she can sell my BAT and id just laugh.I sold them above £50 after decades and missed them like crazy.Getting them back at £25 was wonderful and il never sell 1 share in them again.If they ever do go to hell im going with them.

The dream....

The reality....

 

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Harley, I didn't see this vote to further restrict doctor training. I know that the BMA voted to restrict this several years ago but not that they had doubled down lately. Have you got a link for that?

No, but I heard it recently (during this year?).  To restrict the number of medical training places.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

An area due massive reform.  Hopefully these tensions will bring that about.  Telemedicine indeed has an excellent place (indeed why not international access?!), other medics can do more, nursing degrees can be scrapped, punitive fees introduced to deter the worried well and others, more preventative health, more clinics, AI (triage, etc), etc.  One of the few areas yet to be re-engineered.  So some potential upside, but then we have our current administrative class to implement....OFG!

PS:  Telemedicine is already included in some company health plans.

I have 24/7 online GP access and also a 2nd opinion option. Never needed it. If I do need a GP and my GP surgery is as useless as I suspect they are then I have an option. Must cost the business buttons or else they wouldn't pay! Obviously working age is relatively cheap.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, planit said:

Attention must  move from gas to oil soon. As was said earlier, there will be diesel generators burning this winter since gas prices are so high.

A prepper warned me about having a diesel vehicle as he said the first thing they'll ration is diesel for use by commercial trucks, the military, etc.  I should add this source too!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

No, but I heard it recently (during this year?).  To restrict the number of medical training places.

It is probably this link from 2008. Few know about it and many would be angry if they did. One of those things that the media has never picked up on. Even doctors might not have the brassneck to reduce training further at this time.

https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

[HousePriceMania]

My wife tells me she is struggling to get sugar.

Has anyone any thoughts on Tate and Lyle ?

Dividend 4.37&

PE: 13.04

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I have 24/7 online GP access and also a 2nd opinion option. Never needed it. If I do need a GP and my GP surgery is as useless as I suspect they are then I have an option. Must cost the business buttons or else they wouldn't pay! Obviously working age is relatively cheap.

There's a Scandinavian company I nearly invested in a while back.  Just going public I think.  I should look at these sorts of things again.

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

No, but I heard it recently (during this year?).  To restrict the number of medical training places.

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

[RickyBacker]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Globally, oil inventories drew down at 3mbpd last week. That is very fast, historically. What's going to happen if we start burning oil this winter to supplement gas, or start running diesel gennies?

Family business with a factory in Shenzhen have been told that they will have no power for six days... They will be forced to start up the diesel generators to supply the electricity. I believe this is the case for all factories in Shenzhen.

 

[jamtomorrow]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

A prepper warned me about having a diesel vehicle as he said the first thing they'll ration is diesel for use by commercial trucks, the military, etc.  I should add this source too!

Not hard to stockpile diesel tho - 55 gal drums and hand pumps still easy to come by.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

My wife tells me she is struggling to get sugar.

Has anyone any thoughts on Tate and Lyle ?

Dividend 4.37&

PE: 13.04

I own a sold down stake.  What's left is red like most of my stuff, but pays a good div.  Not sure if it still makes sugar though.  I think they used to have the imported molasses market but now beet is used, hence the shift?  DYOR but IMO looks oversold on the weekly and selling off on the monthly.  A chance the weekly may start to strengthen following last week's 4.31% pop but may need time.  Daily seems to be on the up from the 20 Sep20 low but has had some false break outs this year.  A bit of a wedge forming on the daily momentum which could result in some strength in due course.  DYOR.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

Thanks like the property developer funded tories voting to limit housing supply !!!