Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Castlevania]

I don’t think Italians being very touchy feely when greeting each other has helped.

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I don’t think Italians being very touchy feely when greeting each other has helped.

unlike the french with their kisses and stinking garlic breath. hahaha, course im joking, but all that kissing cant help.

[C-gull]

I've posted elsewhere on here but I'm desperate for opinions from you guys. Would you bail if you were mid-house purchase right now? Here is the detail:

- Very stable income, affordable repayments on a 15 year term on my single stable salary

- 45% deposit, good mortgage rate on a 5 year fix

- Was a decent price for the area prior to the destabilisation starting to manifest, and would probably be affordable to the average family so (again, prior to disruption) it felt like there would be plenty of people who *could* take it off my hands

- I'd probably like to move to a new city in five years or less for a new job and to be closer to the Highlands

- I don't want to be the last fool holding the bag by buying at a peak but I also don't want to sit and watch my deposit inflate away

I'm extremely conflicted and welcome any input

[AQUAMAN]

5 minutes ago, C-gull said:

I've posted elsewhere on here but I'm desperate for opinions from you guys. Would you bail if you were mid-house purchase right now? Here is the detail:

- Very stable income, affordable repayments on a 15 year term on my single stable salary

- 45% deposit, good mortgage rate on a 5 year fix

- Was a decent price for the area prior to the destabilisation starting to manifest, and would probably be affordable to the average family so (again, prior to disruption) it felt like there would be plenty of people who *could* take it off my hands

- I'd probably like to move to a new city in five years or less for a new job and to be closer to the Highlands

- I don't want to be the last fool holding the bag by buying at a peak but I also don't want to sit and watch my deposit inflate away

I'm extremely conflicted and welcome any input

With a 45% deposit and 5 year fix on a 15 year mortgage, surely you will be able to pay almost all of it off in 5 years if IRs are 6% by then

[onlyme]

5 minutes ago, C-gull said:

I've posted elsewhere on here but I'm desperate for opinions from you guys. Would you bail if you were mid-house purchase right now? Here is the detail:

- Very stable income, affordable repayments on a 15 year term on my single stable salary

- 45% deposit, good mortgage rate on a 5 year fix

- Was a decent price for the area prior to the destabilisation starting to manifest, and would probably be affordable to the average family so (again, prior to disruption) it felt like there would be plenty of people who *could* take it off my hands

- I'd probably like to move to a new city in five years or less for a new job and to be closer to the Highlands

- I don't want to be the last fool holding the bag by buying at a peak but I also don't want to sit and watch my deposit inflate away

I'm extremely conflicted and welcome any input

Delay, see what you can pull up in survey, give yourself more time to see what is happening and more guidance on the outlook.

[C-gull]

1 minute ago, AQUAMAN said:

With a 45% deposit and 5 year fix on a 15 year mortgage, surely you will be able to pay almost all of it off in 5 years if IRs are 6% by then

Yes but I'd like to keep some monthly income for investing and also flexibility to do things; I like climbing and mountaineering and I'd like to do that while my knees are still good so I'm ok extending my repayment timeframe in order to let me do these things. If I knuckle down in the short term then I'll be pretty old to be making a start on those things

3 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Delay, see what you can pull up in survey, give yourself more time to see what is happening and more guidance on the outlook.

We are dragging our heels as much as we can to slow it down as much as possible and I'm hoping things are clearer by the time we have to make a go or no-go decision. Are there any indicators you would look at to inform your decision?

[DurhamBorn]

Now this is as contrarian as it comes.Iv just had a call from my old employer,can i go back.Lots of orders starting to come in from China.

I asked what was it for?,Construction machinery mostly,but also big upturn in ones for big scissor lifts.The companies are mostly controlled by the state there.

We are always lead indicators.China is going to inflate.God knows what they intend building,hospitals?,

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Now this is as contrarian as it comes.Iv just had a call from my old employer,can i go back.Lots of orders starting to come in from China.

I asked what was it for?,Construction machinery mostly,but also big upturn in ones for big scissor lifts.The companies are mostly controlled by the state there.

We are always lead indicators.China is going to inflate.God knows what they intend building,hospitals?,

thats just insane, talk about turning the world on its head. Are you going back?

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Now this is as contrarian as it comes.Iv just had a call from my old employer,can i go back.Lots of orders starting to come in from China.

I asked what was it for?,Construction machinery mostly,but also big upturn in ones for big scissor lifts.The companies are mostly controlled by the state there.

We are always lead indicators.China is going to inflate.God knows what they intend building,hospitals?,

Buses? The Go-Ahead Group ...Rocketing UP ...14% today to: £7.37 ...last week low of £3.90!

WISH i bought MORE at the LOW

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Buses? The Go-Ahead Group ...Rocketing UP ...14% today to: £7.37 ...last week low of £3.90!

WISH i bought MORE at the LOW

dont buy, it will tank to $1

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Just now, leonardratso said:

dont buy, it will tank to $1

I'm NOT buying nought at the mo...but when you look at some of these  MEGA LOW share prices in transport sector of the last week ...it makes ya wonder, also i not buying is that the SIGN of the BOTTOM???

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Now this is as contrarian as it comes.Iv just had a call from my old employer,can i go back.Lots of orders starting to come in from China.

I asked what was it for?,Construction machinery mostly,but also big upturn in ones for big scissor lifts.The companies are mostly controlled by the state there.

We are always lead indicators.China is going to inflate.God knows what they intend building,hospitals?,

Good little bit of info that, thanks

[TheCountOfNowhere]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Now this is as contrarian as it comes.Iv just had a call from my old employer,can i go back.Lots of orders starting to come in from China.

I asked what was it for?,Construction machinery mostly,but also big upturn in ones for big scissor lifts.The companies are mostly controlled by the state there.

We are always lead indicators.China is going to inflate.God knows what they intend building,hospitals?,

Mortuaries ?

[onlyme]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Mortuaries ?

Strong cultural link with the wet markets, one way to break that is to raise every one of them to the ground and replace them with something very different.

Also spread of the disease might have identified quite how bad sanitation is in some buildings / services. Demolish and replace, Then there's the hospital that collapsed - concrete walls stuffed with paper - how many substandard properties are there out there.

Lots of scope for construction.

[AQUAMAN]

You guys are all into GDX and GDXJ, but what about the other ETFs? Like for Oil, natural resources, semiconductors

I know I read a few posts here about active investing vs passive ETFs, but if you dont have time to pick stocks and are not a gambler I dont see a better option

[Bricks & Mortar]

Bored of staying home yet?
https://thefed.app/

[BearyBear]

Welcome to QE to infinity.

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Welcome to QE to infinity.

Who decides what’s enough?

[BearyBear]

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Who decides what’s enough?

There will never be enough.

[Majorpain]

13 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

They are talking about getting rid of their 1/3 limit of purchasing a country's debt. They will be making big promises soon enough

The Euro's biggest problem is that broke Club med, who have been living it large on the credit card for the last 10 years, are broke and the frugal North need to completely bail them out and guarantee their debt.

Since that is politically difficult to put it mildly, the market smells blood (see the dollar during Europe hours), and any country who wants to leave the Euro will have to pay off its Target 2 inter-CB loans.

Two countries who owe Germany the most are Italy (400Bn) and Spain (380Bn)

Two countries currently getting most screwed by the Virus are.... Italy and Spain!

Germany therefore has a 780Bn Euro problem, we shall see how far EU solidarity goes when they have to get their checkbook out.....

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I don’t think Italians being very touchy feely when greeting each other has helped.

Before Italy was struggling with the disease some of them felt sorry for the Chinese. The "hug a Chinese" campaign doesn't look good now does it?

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/18/delingpole-woke-hug-a-chinese-person-propaganda-didnt-age-well/

[Harley]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I could swear I only typed BBC, not So-Called BBC, has @spunko rigged this to autocorrect? I'm spooked!

You don't leave the basement much do you?!!!!!!

PS: Yes, indeed he has!

[DurhamBorn]

54 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Who decides what’s enough?

The $

[DurhamBorn]

42 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

The Euro's biggest problem is that broke Club med, who have been living it large on the credit card for the last 10 years, are broke and the frugal North need to completely bail them out and guarantee their debt.

Since that is politically difficult to put it mildly, the market smells blood (see the dollar during Europe hours), and any country who wants to leave the Euro will have to pay off its Target 2 inter-CB loans.

Two countries who owe Germany the most are Italy (400Bn) and Spain (380Bn)

Two countries currently getting most screwed by the Virus are.... Italy and Spain!

Germany therefore has a 780Bn Euro problem, we shall see how far EU solidarity goes when they have to get their checkbook out.....

The irony is it is roughly the amount Germany have stolen from the same countries by being able to have a much lower currency than they should of had.Now they have to pay the piper.Germany thought with the EU they were getting what they wanted most,instead they will get what they fear most,inflation.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

thats just insane, talk about turning the world on its head. Are you going back?

Iv said yes,but thinking about it and might change my mind.Im tempted though just to chuck 100% of the wages into potash and oil.Last time i trebled the salary in my SIPP by putting it all in PM miners and thats helped position now  of course the risk is i catch the lurgy and die,but then if i did id be a member of the pension scheme and get £100k for the kids.Im a bit torn to be honest.