Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

This is more pandemic thread than this one but given your job/connections I'm interested in your views. I could have just asked by PM but there's no point anyone on the thread making money if they get the virus, do the wrong thing and die!

It's a simple question, if you get the virus NHS advice is take paracetamol, would you take it Yes/No?

The reason why I ask is this doctor who was saying no to paracetamol and ibuprofen weeks ago. Yet the NHS only advised against ibuprofen just last week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJqSdmNNwW4

Obviously as in everything in the thread people should DYOR to place their own bet on it.

 

I'm manging the two little ones today so I can respond more at length later if you need DM.Please remember I'm not a GP or Doctor and before taking any medication you're anxious about,you should speak to one.I haven't got time to watch the video but can offer some general non patient specific advice.

Basically,the body ,in response to infection does a number of things,one of which is to raise your temperature to kill pathogens. Taking anti pyretics like NSAID's or Paracetamol will obviously reduce your temperature thereby possibly negating the body's immune response in some respects.

Ergo,the logical advice would be to manage your pain not your temperature.Although there might come a point when the fever represents a greater threat to the patient but that'd be a Doctor's call in my experience.So if you're in pain take some paracetamol.If you can manage without then it may reduce the length of your illness.

In terms of Ibuprofen but also NSAID's more generally,there is some research(which I've not read) that they can have some side effects on people with existing cardiovascular,respiratory and gastro intestinal problems.There are also published contraindictions.Link below. As we've discussed though,there are huge gaps in knowledge regarding Covid 19.For myself,as I'm otherwise healthy,I'd probably self medicate with Paracetamol and Ibuprofen if I was symptomatic and in pain. For others (if I remember correctly you have some other respiratory issues from years in the bookies), who may have existing health problems,then I'd take advice from a GP before taking Ibuprofen as they would have your medical records before them.Phone consultation would be more than adequate I would have thought.

Key thing with these things is to be aware that there's often research on both sides of the issue and that there's a large difference between a 'caution' and a 'contraindication'.Also ,please remember that my work is pre hospital so my understanding of chronic conditions is very limited

BNF-Ibuprofen

https://bnf.nice.org.uk/drug/ibuprofen.html#contraIndications

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy64 said:

1. If we have changed cycle from disinflation to reflation, over the next circa 7/8 years could the direction of travel of people in and around towns and cities change (I.e less people working in city centres, with more working at the "end of the railway line" nearer primary/industrial sources?) I live near Glasgow, and whilst so many now travel from the central belt to the city centres (I.e Glasgow or Edinburgh), I wonder if this trend will reverse and industries will return in former industrial heartlands and transport links will adapt to this change?

Welcome and yes a great point!  IMO this CV thing has the potential to change a lot of things.  Working from home has been resisted by middle managers who need the feeling of control (because they lack proper management skills and an understanding of what people actually technically do).  OK a bit of a cliche but I know some HR professionals who would agree.  Some management needs to technically understand some things at a better level and learn to manage inputs, outputs and exceptions.  And also get a proper job!  Not all people can work from home but there could still be some decentralisation to improve business resilience.  Plus, people may no longer be prepared to commute as before.  Inflation (travel costs, etc) may be another driver to work closer to home.  And a realisation about quality of life is another factor (no wonder they want people to stay in doors!).  And once all this starts, what does this mean for the largely unto now cosseted South East (time for a change)?  On the downside, we could go back to the virtual equivalence of the old daily hire from outside the factory gates with just the cream having those great jobs.  One thing, its gonna change somehow.

[Bricks & Mortar]

7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11239432/petrol-litre-supermarkets-cut-prices/

 

Morrisons and Asda have slashed up to 12p off the price of fuel because of falling oil prices due to coronavirus in an unprecedented boost for drivers.

 

Inflationary ?

I feel a bit sorry for the virus.  Poor wee guy is getting blamed for everything.

 

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I feel a bit sorry for the virus.  Poor wee guy is getting blamed for everything.

Well it ate my hamster!

[BearyBear]

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11239432/petrol-litre-supermarkets-cut-prices/

 

Morrisons and Asda have slashed up to 12p off the price of fuel because of falling oil prices due to coronavirus in an unprecedented boost for drivers.

 

Inflationary ?

This is the first month ever that I'll be filling my expenses but not attaching a single receipt for petrol... 

[Democorruptcy]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Key thing with these things is to be aware that there's often research on both sides of the issue and that there's a large difference between a 'caution' and a 'contraindication'.Also ,please remember that my work is pre hospital so my understanding of chronic conditions is very limited

Thanks for that.

I've always gone the way of sweating an illness out but more recently changed to the paracetamol route. I assumed that my manflu lasting longer was probably due to age. Reading about this virus has made me wonder if it was taking paracetamol that made it harder to shift.  Obviously taking paracetamol will make you feel better and that's why the NHS probably recommend it, as if nothing else it will cut down on visits to GPs.

Good luck, hope the proper kit has been distributed to the trenches now.

 

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Too negative.  I quit early and became a stone mason!  Really!  Well, they were all lying there and something had to be done!

. I was joking....sort of. Probably for the better anyway. Perhaps I can now work less manically for 6 years and then retire.

By the way, we work on a lot of church restoration projects so very familiar with stone masons. Usually people very happy with their lot. The skill level is phenomenal. 

[Shamone]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

All of this is just doing my head in. I was planning to work very hard for another 3 years or so. Retire to a lovely quiet country retreat and listen to prog rock in my yet to be created man cave room.

More than likely now be breaking rocks in some government run labour camp.

So with you there. My part-time job has laid me off for at least 4 weeks. Wife's job could prove precarious. Not sure even my mega-frugal ways can save me from this. Also struggling to keep my aged parents from losing the plot. 1st day in "lockdown" and already am losing it!

[Dave Bloke]

3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Majors-Are-Preparing-For-10-Oil.html

 

$10 a barrel ?

what's that going to do for the Saudis?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

20 minutes ago, Dave Bloke said:

what's that going to do for the Saudis?

They'll lose their heads

[TheCountOfNowhere]

30 minutes ago, Simon said:

So with you there. My part-time job has laid me off for at least 4 weeks. Wife's job could prove precarious. Not sure even my mega-frugal ways can save me from this. Also struggling to keep my aged parents from losing the plot. 1st day in "lockdown" and already am losing it!

Hey Simon,  chin up old chap.  We'll all get through this.  It's a big adjustment for us all.  I was brought up in a time of little so this reminds me of my childhood.  I remember the neighbours having to borrow some spam cause they couldn't feed their kids.  We all lived through it tho.

 

[onlyme]

53 minutes ago, Simon said:

So with you there. My part-time job has laid me off for at least 4 weeks. Wife's job could prove precarious. Not sure even my mega-frugal ways can save me from this. Also struggling to keep my aged parents from losing the plot. 1st day in "lockdown" and already am losing it!

Reckon the jobs market will be massively better for most people once this is over, given time.

Parents are a nightmare, cannot keep my mum indoors, just had a 3 hour round trip to just drop off food and persuade her to just go out for fresh air and not get food every morning and go round the shops no matter how careful she thinks she is being.

 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Seems a bit odd to me, markets going up while economic activity is going down. I understand the inflation part but it hasn't got going yet, the damand for oil has dropped since 20:30 last night but away it goes this morning 🙄

 

It does.When i was learning macro strategy it really opened my eyes and then it helps you to really focus away from the crowd.

The easiest way to get started are to remember these three things.

1.The most important thing in the economy is the price of money.Cross market everything else across that and work the leads and lags.

2.The market will hurt the most people it can,every time,in every market.

3.Markets aren't linear.

 

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/24/markets-live-coronavirus-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-coronavirus/

 

UK heads for recession ‘of a scale not seen in modern history’ as activity collapses

 

FTSE up 5%

 

I disagree.

UK - and US - will have a demand pause for ~3 moths, with some spending, say shops, going to food and shit like that.

 

 

 

[nirvana]

Just popped in to say fuckety, fuck fuck!!! 

sold my RDSB on friday for a quick £1450 3 day profit , was seriously looking to get back in sub £10 then the bastard rockets 

NOW this is an interesting example of TOO MUCH ANALYSIS doing you no good! ie OIL went to 28$ on friday, I guessed it couldn't sustain that and sure enough it has fallen about 20% since then!!

BUT RDSB has gone up over 20%!!!

The markets are going bonkers on a load of free money again!!! fookers!!! 

[King Penda]

13 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I disagree.

UK - and US - will have a demand pause for ~3 moths, with some spending, say shops, going to food and shit like that.

 

 

 

If people are only going to be geting 80% of there wages paid I’d surgest that there spending could drop by 20% .most people are in debt very few have saveings 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, confused said:

Just popped in to say fuckety, fuck fuck!!! 

sold my RDSB on friday for a quick £1450 3 day profit , was seriously looking to get back in sub £10 then the bastard rockets 

NOW this is an interesting example of TOO MUCH ANALYSIS doing you no good! ie OIL went to 28$ on friday, I guessed it couldn't sustain that and sure enough it has fallen about 20% since then!!

BUT RDSB has gone up over 20%!!!

The markets are going bonkers on a load of free money again!!! fookers!!! 

I sat in the canteen at the job I am and bought a small amount more RDSB yesterday, it just seemed like everything was getting ready for more Fed measures

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

If people are only going to be geting 80% of there wages paid I’d surgest that there spending could drop by 20% .most people are in debt very few have saveings 

Sure but they'll be saving on 'travel expenses' so they'll probably spend the same amount on shite food, alcohol and t'internet shopping??

EDIT: having said that I think 'overall spending' will be down so the economy is gonna get hit...

[nirvana]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

I sat in the canteen at the job I am and bought a small amount more RDSB yesterday, it just seemed like everything was getting ready for more Fed measures

Good call, I was a victim of 'you snooze and you lose'  Cost me dear 

Kenny Rogers died last week RIP

 

[Harley]

"Snooze you lose" for you "spending too much time on t'internet" for me.

All you guys fault!

But still a productive day, getting me thoughts lined up for starters.

Hopefully crash tomorrow so I can think I'm a genius!

Plus, 15% or whatever of little is thankfully sort of little, atm!

[Loki]

14 minutes ago, confused said:

Good call, I was a victim of 'you snooze and you lose'  Cost me dear 

Only thanks to this thread, my thoughts would have been the same as yours previously.  Both logical, but scale can skew logic 

[Barnsey]

Unlimited QE certainly seems to be doing it’s job for now

[gibbon]

3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

. I was joking....sort of. Probably for the better anyway. Perhaps I can now work less manically for 6 years and then retire.

By the way, we work on a lot of church restoration projects so very familiar with stone masons. Usually people very happy with their lot. The skill level is phenomenal. 

If I had to drop what I do right now the first thing I'd look at doing is getting into stone masonry/craftsman on historical projects, old churches and the like something which requires real skill.

I'd assume though it's one of those things which looks better in theory than practice, lots of competition and not enough work...stress of scratching around trying to find gigs, low pay etc

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, confused said:

Sure but they'll be saving on 'travel expenses' so they'll probably spend the same amount on shite food, alcohol and t'internet shopping??

EDIT: having said that I think 'overall spending' will be down so the economy is gonna get hit...

A lot of jobs will go for good and others put behind take a local large employer ie Alton towers they would traditionally be recruiting around now ,ok tesco is takeing on 20000 for a few weeks McDonald’s just laid 130,000 off for a few weeks.many of these people are not going to be going nuts with spending I think we can safely say the economy is going to tank 

[BearyBear]

38 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Unlimited QE certainly seems to be doing it’s job for now

I wonder if FED is actually buying shares today...?