Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Given the poverty of the testing data,they are unsure of the asymptomatic infection rate which could be a game changer if it's it's larger than expected.

Worth considering ref India that they are generally a much younger country demographically and quite likely that the average Indian has a pretty well functioning immune system.Outliers aside,that's possibly why Western countries are suffering more due to age and cleaner living.The testing will tell.

The amount of people who had a bad flu late dec/jan/feb including myself and my partner (she was really bad) was huge this year.Im starting to think half the country has had it.Just before she was bad we were in the Chinese buffet at Durham,that is full of chinese students (Durham has a huge Asian population for the university).Could we of caught it?.We simply dont know,but we cant act like we have because we probably havent,but what if we have?.

[leonardratso]

did you eat the bat soup? probably a bonus if youve already had it to be honest, youll be full of antibodies that can fight it off again.

[Agent ZigZag]

Lets hope the next cycle gets rid of all these politically correct and emotional thinkers that have been in positions of authority for to long. A right minded authority would have shut down all travel from China to the UK immediately and strict controls in place from elsewhere including Europe. The great advantage of the UK is we are an island.

Anyway serves your right DB for eating as much as you like for £8. 

[Castlevania]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The amount of people who had a bad flu late dec/jan/feb including myself and my partner (she was really bad) was huge this year.Im starting to think half the country has had it.Just before she was bad we were in the Chinese buffet at Durham,that is full of chinese students (Durham has a huge Asian population for the university).Could we of caught it?.We simply dont know,but we cant act like we have because we probably havent,but what if we have?.

They need to test everyone and if you have the antibodies then let you get back to work/normality.

FT reported today that an Oxford University study thinks the bat flu had been in the U.K. since mid January and up to 50% of the population may have already been infected.

[sancho panza]

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The amount of people who had a bad flu late dec/jan/feb including myself and my partner (she was really bad) was huge this year.Im starting to think half the country has had it.Just before she was bad we were in the Chinese buffet at Durham,that is full of chinese students (Durham has a huge Asian population for the university).Could we of caught it?.We simply dont know,but we cant act like we have because we probably havent,but what if we have?.

An antibodies test looks quite near.

19 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They need to test everyone and if you have the antibodies then let you get back to work/normality.

FT reported today that an Oxford University study thinks the bat flu had been in the U.K. since mid January and up to 50% of the population may have already been infected.

Just came on to post the FT stuff CV refers to.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-half-uk-population-oxford-university-study-finds-a4396721.html

The coronavirus could have infected as much as half of the the UK’s population, according to researchers at the University of Oxford.

Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, led a study into the infection rate of Covid-19 across the country.

The findings came on the same day the official death toll jumped to a record 87 in one day to 422 and confirmed cases leapt by 1,427.

The new model from Oxford University suggests the virus was circulating in the UK by mid-January, around two weeks before the first reported case and a month before the first reported death.

And the research suggested that less than one thousand of those with Covid-19 became ill enough to need treatment in hospital, with the vast majority developing mild symptoms or none at all.

 

This means it could have had enough time to have spread widely, with many people in the country acquiring immunity.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Professor Gupta said testing was needed to assess the theory.

Oxford’s research represents a very different view to the modelling at Imperial College London, which influenced government policy to tackle the spread of the virus in the UK.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,”  Professor Gupta told the same newspaper.

But she was reluctant to criticise Boris Johnson’s decision to place the country on lockdown as the accuracy of the new model has not yet been confirmed.

If accurate, the results would mean the country has already acquired substantial “herd immunity” through the unrecognised spread of the illness.

Herd immunity is the idea that coronavirus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant after being  infected.

The shutdown across the UK could be removed much sooner expected if the findings are confirmed by testing, it was reported.

 

It is hoped testing will begin as soon as this week.

More than 90,000 people have been tested for Covid-19 in the UK, 82,359 of which came back negative.

NHS England said 83 of the 87 new deaths in the UK happened in England, bringing the total number of deaths there to 386.

Patients were aged between 33 and 103 years old and all were in vulnerable groups including those with underlying conditions.

According to NHS England, 21 of the deaths were reported at London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust in Harrow.

A further seven died at the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Harlow.

Four died at each of Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, University Hospitals of Leicester and Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust.

The latest figures were announced as the country enters its first day of lockdown after Boris Johnson announced people should only leave their homes for four reasons.

People can leave their homes to shop for essentials, for one form of exercise per day, for medical need or to provide care to a vulnerable person and travelling to and from essential work

[sancho panza]

Macro Voices discussion on Covid

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-z6c6b-d70db9?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Anyone tempted to sell up today ?

[Sugarlips]

How long til society starts breaking down then? I’m told this is Wetherspoons Crystal Palace this morning..

 

[leonardratso]

14 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

How long til society starts breaking down then? I’m told this is Wetherspoons Crystal Palace this morning..

 

 

looks quite normal, what am i missing here?

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

All, look at Go Ahead Group today UP by 14% to £8.60

Could have sold out my holding when it was up 20% this morning but no.  I would have crystallised a loss for what?  The ball is still in play over the intermediate/longer term.  The original longer term reasons to buy are still there.  I could have said I would have bought back but I know I'd miss the boat and anyway this holding is not a trade.  We were taught in a firefight to move forward because the chances were we entered it OK and perversely it can be better than the alternative.  OK, not quite that brave but I ain't falling back just yet!

[Sugarlips]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

looks quite normal, what am i missing here?

Normal for Saaf London I guess 🧐

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/wetherspoons-boss-urges-staff-get-jobs-tesco-warns-pay-delays-coronavirus-crisis-12447096/

[janch]

3 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Happy with losses as stupid as that sounds it was the same with learning to run advertising its all part of your education to spend money and learn your own little ways

So @DurhamBorn I for one am glad that you will stick around as i have learned so much not from just you but many posters here,  But this thread that you started had me hooked and made me pull the trigger to not just sit with cash in the bank hoping for a interest rate rise one day

Same here.  I had no clue about the macro situation and whilst learning I've made a few investments and learnt the mechanics plus learned to sit out market gyrations.  I've started looking at indicators eg DXY and dollar/sterling exchange rates etc which all passed me by previously.

I've made a few mistakes too and hopefully won't make the same ones again eg not taking a small profit and then watching it disappear.  I've also realised I'm not a trader.  If I let myself I know I'd be addicted and be one of those with a bank of computer screens which I'd be looking at all day and beating myself up if I missed the boat on something.

I'm too long in the tooth for that so the slow steady approach is much better in the long run but with the guidance on here I'm not completely market-blind as I would have been before.

Mind you if interest rates rise as predicted alongside inflation I may move a good chunk back into the bank!

[janch]

56 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-half-uk-population-oxford-university-study-finds-a4396721.html

Very interesting article and ties in with my thinking that I too may already have had the bug.  I was quite ill with a flu-like illness starting on Christmas Day.

I'd be very interested in taking an antibody test to see if I'm immune when one becomes available. 

[headrow]

I sold my IBTL today , held for a year after somebody on here suggested it would be a good buy. I will come out of it with a 19k profit which i will transfer into my ISA in a a couple of weeks.

Whoever it was that posted the advice i am truly grateful.

 

I was going to use the money to double down on some of shares that have had a huge kicking , Centrica , New River Reit & Drax but i would rather hold out on them yet as they might not make it through so i will wait for another sell off and then buy Vodafone , BAT , Glaxo , HSBC, BP & Unilever in my ISA instead. I live on my dividends , quite a few in my portfolio have withdrawn them , i am looking now at companies that should continue to keep paying them.

 

Thanks agin for the IBTL recommendation.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Anyone tempted to sell up today ?

Not me, I am up on some but that's more trading than investing for a deflation in my eyes.  If they dip again I'll be 'in the red', and buy more for cheap

DXY is still over 101, so it looks like they've barely scratched the surface yet.  @DurhamBorn what would the lag be for DXY to indicate less systemic risk, please?  Estimate/rough guide is fine.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Could have sold out my holding when it was up 20% this morning but no.  I would have crystallised a loss for what?  The ball is still in play over the intermediate/longer term.  The original longer term reasons to buy are still there.  I could have said I would have bought back but I know I'd miss the boat and anyway this holding is not a trade.  We were taught in a firefight to move forward because the chances were we entered it OK and perversely it can be better than the alternative.  OK, not quite that brave but I ain't falling back just yet!

OK, very funny, who did it?  Now down for the day!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

OK, very funny, who did it?  Now down for the day!

Ouch

Go-Ahead Group plc

LON: GOG

Follow

 

734.50 GBX −50.50 (6.43%)

 

[DurhamBorn]

51 minutes ago, Loki said:

Not me, I am up on some but that's more trading than investing for a deflation in my eyes.  If they dip again I'll be 'in the red', and buy more for cheap

DXY is still over 101, so it looks like they've barely scratched the surface yet.  @DurhamBorn what would the lag be for DXY to indicate less systemic risk, please?  Estimate/rough guide is fine.

About ten minutes.Its the one area at the moment there will be no lag.Systemic risk is still there,but the Fed have now said unlimited,likely they will up their buying as the treasury starts to issue treasuries for this $1.8 trillion stimulus.Stage one was getting $ into the system,stage two is to increase those $s as the US treasury issues paper.Stage one is money going into the financial system,the nuts and bolts,starting soon it will continue doing that,but also monetize the money going into the real economy from treasuries being issued.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

About ten minutes

Wow, I wasn't expecting that sort of timeframe! Thanks

[Hardhat]

Portfolio of relfation stocks recovered from 20% down to 8% down today. Fres went blue for the first time in months. I'm hoping for a rally in goldies here as the paper market catches up with the demand for physical. 

[Sasquatch]

17 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio of relfation stocks recovered from 20% down to 8% down today. Fres went blue for the first time in months. I'm hoping for a rally in goldies here as the paper market catches up with the demand for physical. 

I'm down quite a bit on stocks but gold bullion in my SIPP looking quite tasty at the moment. Time well tell whether the latter decision will prove to be a good one. My (ex) IFA advised otherwise!

[Talking Monkey]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I sold a few bottom ladders today,most of them were up 50% from their lows.My portfolio actually went into profit today and considering id taken a lot last year out of the goldies very pleased about that.Its highly likely things are going to get a lot worse in the US etc for deaths so could be very choppy.

As always  ignoring hyperbole and watching the liquidity was key.Even if things stay stable though the market will likely start getting some shocks from companies going under.The damage to a huge number of companies will be very large indeed.

The dollar index is still over 100 DB would you have expected the Fed  to have got it below that by now. Going back to the golden rule the market hurts the most people I reckon without the downward move that smashes the glamour stocks the whole correction is not over, might get a multi month up leg first linking to the non linear aspect 

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

The dollar index is still over 100 DB would you have expected the Fed  to have got it below that by now. Going back to the golden rule the market hurts the most people I reckon without the downward move that smashes the glamour stocks the whole correction is not over, might get a multi month up leg first linking to the non linear aspect 

I have a feeling you're right, if I've understood you correctly anyway.  Durhamborn also makes reference to another 'roaring' twenties on his roadmaps, it seems too early for that to be starting now.  This is just an appetiser, but as I suck at timing I'll just sit it out.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Was that it then.  The shortest crash in history

 

Market Summary > Dow Jones Industrial Average

INDEXDJX: .DJI

Follow

 

21,821.24 +1,116.33 (5.39%)

 

They're celebrating on wall street, I wonder why.

[headrow]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Was that it then.  The shortest crash in history

 

Market Summary > Dow Jones Industrial Average

INDEXDJX: .DJI

Follow

 

21,821.24 +1,116.33 (5.39%)

 

They're celebrating on wall street, I wonder why.

I know you have a nose the length of pinocchio but borrow a telescope and see if you can see beyond it you boring cunt.