Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Amazing really that my road maps say we are likely going all the way back to 1982...

 

Measured in.....?

[Cosmic]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

Measured in.....?

Marathon bars!

[Hardhat]

19 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Am I correct in remembering you use AJBell sancho? If so how are you holding Nutrien & K+S?

I hold K&S on there in a LISA, search K+S AG

[Don Coglione]

5 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Thanks I'll take a look at them. Probably at the point where I should be spreading things out anyway.

Sorry for my bad memory

As Cosmic Apple brought this up, I am copying a question I posted originally in the Share Trading section:

What is the general feeling about the robustness of the various brokers and trading platforms? Do those who have more than £85k to invest share the love around, to keep within the FSCS guarantee, or is everyone happy to have in excess of this sitting with, for example, HL?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/26/us-recession-coronavirus-crisis-fed-chair-jerome-powell

 

"US may be in recession amid Covid-19 crisis, says Fed chair Jerome Powell"

 

Who cares....free cash....

 

Market Summary > Dow Jones Industrial Average

INDEXDJX: .DJI

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21,890.94 +690.39 (3.26%)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Are the US spivs dragging up the UK share prices buying stocks on the cheap with their magicked up cash ?

[Castlevania]

48 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Am I correct in remembering you use AJBell sancho? If so how are you holding Nutrien & K+S? Their search is woeful and then it won't quote for either of those (amongst others), have you been calling the deals through? Perhaps step one of my DD should be "Can I actually get find/buy them on AJB" instead of it being my last

Search for the ticker code. K&S AG for some reason is SDF for example. It’s there:

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-today-futures-lay-low-ahead-of-stimulus-vote-jobless-data-coronavirus-update-micron-gets-earnings-boost/

 

So, the high jobless figures are good news for the spivs as they'll get more free cash.

This is what happens when you bail out psychopaths.

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 The Earth is 9 billion years old, in context the dinasours happend yesterday. Its amazing isnt it.

Indeed it is. And the holographic universe theory (even if that turns out to be closer to metaphore than being actual reality) is super amazing, and more than a little scary.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Pandemic response moved up to section 3 from section 7 in the Bilderberg manual last year. 

Now you mention it I do remember the 2019 Bilderberg meeting 'global risk report' (actually i'm not sure what it was called) being on the (so called!) news outlets.

I cant find the full list now, but i think catastrophic climate change was their no. 1. (apparently that made Greta very happy and she almost smiled)

[Democorruptcy]

48 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Are the US spivs dragging up the UK share prices buying stocks on the cheap with their magicked up cash ?

I would have thought it might be China mostly likely to be buying a lot of shares in Western companies? 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Measured in.....?

Interest rates and inflation mainly.

[Democorruptcy]

It's a mixed bag so far today. The FTSE constituents have changed this week. Anyone got a list to hand of the in/outs?

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Barclays too.

All the 'competive'lenders are running away from high LTV mortgages esp. IO btl.

All those people who took out teaser io btl mortgages with 5  or 2 year fixes are going to find theres no more mortgages, so get put on 7% + SVR

Hahaha.

And the idiots who took up Ltd co mortgages are totally fucked as banks Ltd co defaults rise, forcing much higher rates.

Yep,and one of the reasons i got my son on a 10 year fix at 2.64%.By the end they will of paid between 50% and 100% off depending on how high silver goes and how much they pay off in capital.There is a risk they see a drop,but given we are the cheapest part of the country almost and i expect a lot of people might move here going forward .Those HTB on 2 year fixed,or 5 year taken a couple of years ago are shagged.Not sure though how the 20% thing works though,is that classed as equity? or do the banks ignore it.?

[JMD]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Life post covid is going to be very different. Particualrly for the under 40's.

Besides the obvious drop in economic acitivty,I do wonder whether there will be a very different attitude to debt.I was saying to Mrs P last night that many people her age in the UK -under 40-have never really known a period of high unemployment and chronic job insecurity that were comonplace in the 70's,80's and early 90's.

SP, I think that's right about the coming change. But I also think that 'most people' will take it in their stride, especially if the media tell them its all for the best and that 'quality of life' is after all what's really most important (correct of course, but it sticks in the throat to hear it from MSM)... already I hear the media talking about wellness concepts, and for having a Kinder Britain, all becoming the order of the day.

However, though most of the population will tolerate a big and forced change in lifestyle, these same people will become increasingly aware/wary of those around who only take from the system and give nothing back. And I suppose this is where it gets interesting! How will our large social/health bill be paid, and who will be deemed part of the deserving poor? We have a liberal/libertarian PM though most rather ignorantly see Boris as a bouncy buffoon like conservative. As discussed often here, everything is up for grabs politically/economically in the next cycle. As for kicking the can some more... we've surely run out of road. So interesting times ahead? As the hated right wing Ayn Rand said, 'You can ignore reality, but you cant ignore the consequences of ignoring reality'.    

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

given we are the cheapest part of the country almost and i expect a lot of people might move here going forward

How diverse and vibrant is it round there? 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

How diverse and vibrant is it round there? 

Its Durham, your diverse if you come from Jesmond, Newcastle.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its Durham, your diverse if you come from Jesmond, Newcastle.

I may seriously take a drive that way next time I'm far north for work. Southern poof though, but a working class one.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Its Durham, your diverse if you come from Jesmond, Newcastle.

Very rare you see anyone in Durham from that far away  ,a big student population of course.Councils have been moving a lot of southern benefit claims in though iv noticed.Never heard a southern accent here a few years ago,but now quite regular,iv noticed most are loud and fat.

[spygirl]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,and one of the reasons i got my son on a 10 year fix at 2.64%.By the end they will of paid between 50% and 100% off depending on how high silver goes and how much they pay off in capital.There is a risk they see a drop,but given we are the cheapest part of the country almost and i expect a lot of people might move here going forward .Those HTB on 2 year fixed,or 5 year taken a couple of years ago are shagged.Not sure though how the 20% thing works though,is that classed as equity? or do the banks ignore it.?

HTB is strange.

Not all banks bought into the - Hey banks, well put 20% and, in 5 years time when the borrower has progressed at work andor the house has gone up in value, they'll be able to remortgage, paying back the 20% loan.

Cant find any numbers.

Some of bigger banks did not touch it. They might have created a mortgage but they will have sold fucksll, deliberately.

Nationwide went nuts deep, being Northern Rock v2.

The first batch if HTB have hit 5 year payback time in 2018.

https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2018/03/06/help-to-buy-timebomb-as-five-year-anniversary-looms/

After five years is up, borrowers must pay a fee of 1.75 per cent of the value of their loan, increasing each year by RPI plus 1 per cent, unless they can pay the loan off, usually by remortgaging.

The Help to Buy scheme only applied to newbuild homes, and mortgage brokers and other experts are warning that customers may be left paying expensive fees if they do not have the equity left in their homes to remortgage, especially since newbuild homes don’t always increase in value at the same speed as other homes.

“It’s going to be a very big problem,” said Bob Riach from Riach Financial Advisers. “I told people to avoid these schemes, but those who did will struggle, especially where newbuilds have been overpriced.”

Few lenders offered Help to Buy mortgages, with Mr Riach saying that most Help to Buy customers have mortgages with Nationwide and Halifax.

Clusterfuck, as htb ftb would have been late 20s couple do will have kids, income down a lot.

Htb newbuild appear to have been over priced by 30%, so that extra 20% has cost the idiot btler 10% more. Total clusterfuck.

The only way out of htb is most of  the newbuild being classed as lemons and flipped back to the house builder, who has to return money. I think that's going to happen.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very rare you see anyone in Durham from that far away  ,a big student population of course.Councils have been moving a lot of southern benefit claims in though iv noticed.Never heard a southern accent here a few years ago,but now quite regular,iv noticed most are loud and fat.

On behalf of the southern counties I apologise, we hate them too

[spygirl]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very rare you see anyone in Durham from that far away  ,a big student population of course.Councils have been moving a lot of southern benefit claims in though iv noticed.Never heard a southern accent here a few years ago,but now quite regular,iv noticed most are loud and fat.

Try areas t00-150 miles out.

I go to towns where you'd just here the west country accents.

In the last 5 years you now get obese toothless slobs in tracksuits, swearing in estuary English. Fuckers need to back to SE. And the fuckers living in their houses need to fuck off to the country they came from.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think silver will be the best performing asset of all from roughly $10 to $300,2.5x the rise in oil.However its better to spread across the sectors.Oil wont do as well,but it should still be the biggest % of assets.Im looking for silver to be around the same allocation as the potash sector.One or both should 10 bag and there is an outside chance they 25 bag.As always its vital a spread is kept as we cant be sure on the outcome,only the likely direction of travel.

That's interesting DB, i guess its obvious what you mean, but just to check - do you mean a portfolio allocation of say (for arguments sake, def. not a trading recommendation) 10% potash and 10% silver (comprising both mining stocks and the physical stuff).

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

That's interesting DB, i guess its obvious what you mean, but just to check - do you mean a portfolio allocation of say (for arguments sake, def. not a trading recommendation) 10% potash and 10% silver (comprising both mining stocks and the physical stuff).

Yes,its actually 8%,but i dont count the physical in there,i dont even count the physical as part of my assets,i count it as zero.If it does rocket i would count it the day i sold it.If i do sell that il probaby buy a wood ,or some land.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I would have thought it might be China mostly likely to be buying a lot of shares in Western companies? 

The FTSE bounce happened when the Dow opened