Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

well, came into work, saw more or less same number of cars etc for this time in morning.

nobody here though, which is just how i like it, heatings on full blast as well, so may as well just load up a few games and use the netwrok like it should be used.(at 120%).

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

All explained by this writer @Democorruptcy introduced.In short,complex is sifting the transports for the best picks,decomplex is buying the oilies who produce the oil they run on.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/167-tests-and-correctives/

This is more pandemic thread than this one but given your job/connections I'm interested in your views. I could have just asked by PM but there's no point anyone on the thread making money if they get the virus, do the wrong thing and die!

It's a simple question, if you get the virus NHS advice is take paracetamol, would you take it Yes/No?

The reason why I ask is this doctor who was saying no to paracetamol and ibuprofen weeks ago. Yet the NHS only advised against ibuprofen just last week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJqSdmNNwW4

Obviously as in everything in the thread people should DYOR to place their own bet on it.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

10 hours ago, Errol said:

Text? I have never sent one. My phone is off the whole time (and in the fridge).

Thanks @Errol that made my morning pissing me self LAUGHING!

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Should of been done a week ago,but at least done now markets will be able to start to price better once they can see an end,...

Everything is turning,inflection points are reached,massive financial dislocation as expected and we are going all the way back to 1983.lets hope this thread charts it and calls it all the way.

 

 

 

Nikkei 225 ...SHOT UP 1,204 Points over night...get ya pop-corn ready for another fabulous trading day!

 

1983, brings back memories, (DEEP recession 1980-83) did the end of my engineering apprenticeship that year, hated the company as i was working in a trade shop (4 of us ) you had to do 50 hours a week - pay was £26.99 i can still remember that small brown envelope with the pittance, i was basically EXPLOITED...

 

Most of the guys at college apprenticeship were getting 50% MORE and doing less hours, boy did learn how EASY it is when you worked at BIG companies latter in life... 

Anyway what i wanted to say was ...once i received the apprenticeship certs by 1983, things started to really PICK UP in the job market, and we basically had a BOOM all the way to 1990...

 

SO lets see if the future becomes CORRECT with the ROARING 2020's... it should do as DB's predictions have been SPOT on so far...once we get through this part.

 

[Barnsey]

Holy fook, first of many...

Too soon?

 

[Loki]

37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's a simple question, if you get the virus NHS advice is take paracetamol, would you take it Yes/No?

No, i never take it.  Aspirin only

[kibuc]

Quebec and Ontario shutting down.

Ontario still allows miners (base and precious metals alike) to operate, whereas Quebec states that "industrial complexes (especially the aluminum sector) and mining must minimize their activities".

 

Agnico-Eagle has 3 operating mines in Quebec, producing over 600koz gold (about 150koz owned by Yamana via partnership).

IAMGold has a small 100koz operation.

Wesdome has an exploration project (Kiena) but their producing asset (Eagle River) is in Ontario.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Anyone see the deliberate mistake here....

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/24/markets-live-coronavirus-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-coronavirus/

 

FTSE rallies as data shows Covid-19 devastating economic activity

 

[Castlevania]

Is this a bear market rally? I think we’re over the worst for most stocks. A number now up 30%+ from last week’s lows.

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Holy fook, first of many...

Too soon?

 

You have to laugh at the Germans,return to frugal policy ,it doesnt work like that.They will be spending as much as anyone else.Maybe more.Fed will decide what Germany does because commod prices are going to be the story of the cycle and how currencies interact with the $ crucial.

[leonardratso]

22 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Quebec and Ontario shutting down.

Ontario still allows miners (base and precious metals alike) to operate, whereas Quebec states that "industrial complexes (especially the aluminum sector) and mining must minimize their activities".

 

Agnico-Eagle has 3 operating mines in Quebec, producing over 600koz gold (about 150koz owned by Yamana via partnership).

IAMGold has a small 100koz operation.

Wesdome has an exploration project (Kiena) but their producing asset (Eagle River) is in Ontario.

hmm, restriction to supply, another URA type squeeze?

[Talking Monkey]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting to see that as sterling tanked today,BP and Shell went up,we're debating our buying strategy once we feel the bottom is in.XOM is $31 but I'm unwilling to buy with cable so low.Shame.Was pndering a final tranche in SIbnaye but again held off for the same reason.

Intention now is to funnel our remaining stake for this phase(we're keeping about 16% in cash) into BP/Shell and possibly some more

All explained by this writer @Democorruptcy introduced.In short,complex is sifting the transports for the best picks,decomplex is buying the oilies who produce the oil they run on.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/167-tests-and-correctives/

I held of from XOM for the same reason SP, what factors would you need to see to deploy further into Shell/BP

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Still waiting for my text 

Some predictions emerging of a real nasty stimulus driven snap back of inflation but surely it’s going to take more than 6 months to materialise as we face this deflation monster? David Hunter still of the belief that this -35% fall in S&P was just a pull back and that we’ll see a melt up to new highs and an 80% collapse by year end. Fair to say his expectations of a rapid response were let down massively by the Fed, predicting a turnaround at 2900 and yet we went down to 2235 area, also misjudging the collapse in yields which he wasn’t expecting until the bust. Then again, Gold has held up fairly well, and not collapsed to $1000.
 

Having seen Silver fall to under $12 (albeit briefly), and oil getting close to $20, I’m of course tempted to say we’ve kinda had our collapse especially given what unemployment numbers will be released shortly, but I guess this unlimited QE and then a whiff of inflation as the virus abates for the summer could cause CBs to consider pulling away the honey? The mere hint of which might be enough to cause collapse?

I dunno, lots to process, just seems too easy to assume virus situation greatly improves and we’re a straight trajectory upward from there doesn’t it?

On David Hunters' belief of a melt up and then 80%  collapse, not sure of a melt up to new highs in the S&P let alone 4000, but a big leg down later in the year seems plausible with 60-80% falls from whatever the 2020 highs are. Looking at some of the glamour stocks eg Tesla, still complete insanity there. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

F****** Hell ...shell ZOOMING , ZOOMING UP 14% toady... £12.14 ...glad i bought more at £9.30 ....now wishing I'd had bought MEGA MORE ! still not far to get to my money back. 1st purchase £19.10

[Agent ZigZag]

12 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

On David Hunters' belief of a melt up and then 80%  collapse, not sure of a melt up to new highs in the S&P let alone 4000, but a big leg down later in the year seems plausible with 60-80% falls from whatever the 2020 highs are. Looking at some of the glamour stocks eg Tesla, still complete insanity there. 

Many of the stocks discussed on this site have already collapsed 50 - 75% before the current sell off. Of course they could sell off more but I am drawn to the view that any further sell off in these stocks will be to a higher low as the market i consider will get wind of inflation and price these stocks accordingly. The current shut down whilst a pain for me work wise is actually a relief as the money markets can now take stock as there was far to much doom that was feeding on itself

[Craig]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Holy fook, first of many...

First looked at that graph and thought, "well that's not too bad", then I saw the line!

[CVG]

29 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

F****** Hell ...shell ZOOMING , ZOOMING UP 14% toady... £12.14 ...glad i bought more at £9.30 ....now wishing I'd had bought MEGA MORE ! still not far to get to my money back. 1st purchase £19.10

Strike that. 17%

[BearyBear]

With the paper money CBs are printing... does that mean all the overleveraged guys are again getting rewarded for what they did? No punishment... again?

Btw. Poor Elon Musk has asked for $5bn... I'm not that greedy, $1m would do fine for me. Where should I subscribe?

[Democorruptcy]

Parliament pension fund cuts fossil fuel investments

Interesting:

Quote

However, the pension’s trustees have stopped short of divesting entirely from fossil fuel companies and retain multimillion-pound investments in the oil companies Royal Dutch Shell and BP. The annual report showed that the fund has decreased its investment in BP by almost two-thirds in the past year, to £4.4m, and cut its holdings in Shell by a quarter, to £8m.

 

[Don Coglione]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Parliament pension fund cuts fossil fuel investments

Interesting:

 

Does that suggest that BP and Shell are about to get reamed politically?

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Is this a bear market rally? I think we’re over the worst for most stocks. A number now up 30%+ from last week’s lows.

I suppose it's Trump yesterday?

Quote

 

President reportedly losing patience as he says the US will soon be open for business again

At a press conference yesterday, the president said that “America will again and soon be open for business”, using the past tense to add: “This was a learning experience for the people of our country.”

The previous evening, Trump had tweet: “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF.”

Referring to the 15-day period during which the White House encouraged all Americans to work from home and limit gatherings of more than 10 people, he added: “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

“Donald Trump may be having second thoughts,” writes Anthony Zurcher, the So-Called BBC’s North America reporter.

“Not only is Trump looking at this as a president whose re-election could hinge on an economic rebound,” Zurcher adds. “He is also a businessman watching his life’s work - his empire of resorts, hotels and golf courses, some of which were reportedly already in financial trouble - face an existential crisis.”

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/3/24/is-donald-trump-preparing-to-end-coronavirus-containment-measures?

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

As expected the markets can now start to look ahead as the wave of fear selling at any price has stopped for a while.It could come back of course and quickly.

People are waking up to inflation.The huge jumps in the likes of Shell,BP,BHP etc show this.

However id of rather the markets had kept falling for now because the Fed havent done anywhere near enough given the systemic risks.Im really struggling to find out just how much liquidity they have pumped in,but its looking to me like only around half of whats needed.It could be they monetize another $2 trillion once the democrats stop their nut job ways in the Senate.

It always feels nice to get a 30% jump in the likes of Shell,but thats just short term emotions,the more crucial part is that the liquidity is pumped so they can reach potential in 6 years+ and id rather the market had kept its foot on the Feds neck.A 30% jump in Shell now might cost us an extra 200% by 2027 if the CBs think they have got things stable and print less.

They havent printed enough yet to  stave off a massive debt deflation.Hopefully the credit markets can keep the Fed pumping.

[StrugglingMillennial]

Seems a bit odd to me, markets going up while economic activity is going down. I understand the inflation part but it hasn't got going yet, the damand for oil has dropped since 20:30 last night but away it goes this morning 🙄

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Does that suggest that BP and Shell are about to get reamed politically?

The interesting bit for me was that they had nearly double RDSB to BP. Partly because I have a lot more RDSB than BP.

Let me know if you read that they have cut their holdings to near zero.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Does that suggest that BP and Shell are about to get reamed politically?

No,it means the people running the pension scheme are woke virtue signalers who have zero understanding of macro strategy.Big oil is the answer to a low carbon future,not the enemy.Everyone will be going mad about the price of fuel by 2026 and probably hate the oil companies.By then the ikes of Shell will be investing £15 billion a year in green projects.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,it means the people running the pension scheme are woke virtue signalers who have zero understanding of macro strategy.Big oil is the answer to a low carbon future,not the enemy.Everyone will be going mad about the price of fuel by 2026 and probably hate the oil companies.By then the ikes of Shell will be investing £15 billion a year in green projects.

Yes, the parliament pension fund could be upping their holdings at higher prices. Maybe they take advice from who told  Gordon Brown to sell our gold on the cheap?