Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Well if they show such lack of awareness in their actions to appreciate such a scenario was likely, then they have no right to be in a position to govern...that said, I suppose that's what happens when you have career politicians rather than those with real world experience!

Sir Keir 'Take a knee' Starmer and bozza don't give me much faith that the coming banking crisis will be dealt with in the best interests of taxpayers

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Loki said:

Thanks @DurhamBorn i wasn't doubting your work, i was doubting the whole system and wondering if it really was different this time from what has gone before (and not in a good way)

@sancho panza the last few pages of the massive pandemic thread is interesting. Still plenty happy with the End of Days narrative being pushed.

The system has been pushed very very far yes and its disguising a lot of things,but the political cycle is meeting the macro.There is always a chance we dont get a reflation,but its a very small chance now.I think the question is only really the size,length and inflation.I tend to base off cycle inflation,and im using 76% over the cycle compounded.So from now until 2029/30

[sancho panza]

Just now, Loki said:

Thanks @DurhamBorn i wasn't doubting your work, i was doubting the whole system and wondering if it really was different this time from what has gone before (and not in a good way)

@sancho panza the last few pages of the massive pandemic thread is interesting. Still plenty happy with the End of Days narrative being pushed.

It's surprising who's loving the oppression,A lot more people are sick of it but there's still a hard core who are mad for it.Mainly retired or teachers though in my experience.

Also,due to the scare stories a lot of parents are totally oblvivious to the real mortality rate for kids.

I'll get back on the sceptics thread tonight when I have time.I came on to psot about gold and 15 mins later still ranting about other things.

[sancho panza]

$1769 on the yellow stuff..........nice.Particualrly looking forward to watching the Newcrest ADR this afternoon-our biggest positon

 

[CVG]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

If you have a hungry tiger coming at you and you have an endless supply of meat in a bottomless bag you dont stop throwing the meat to it until its full and goes to sleep.

One of your best analogies yet DB. Keep it up!

[jamtomorrow]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks @DurhamBorn i wasn't doubting your work, i was doubting the whole system and wondering if it really was different this time from what has gone before (and not in a good way)

Wondering the same. To extend the "pipes" analogy ... the system will only respond as quickly as the pipes can deliver the liquidity. So how big are the pipes these days?

Or to put it another way: to what extent is the "real economy" of pay packets, mortgage payments and food shopping sufficiently coupled to the financialised corporate economy of stocks, bonds, swap lines, ETFs, commodities, derivatives etc that we might expect liquidity to move between one and the other like it has done before?

[leonardratso]

RDSb divi just arrived, 12.68p/share

[janch]

45 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

$1769 on the yellow stuff..........nice.Particualrly looking forward to watching the Newcrest ADR this afternoon-our biggest positon

 

I only have small positions in POG/FRES and HOC of these but I'm also watching with interest.  Hopefully they will offset some of my other (paper losses) as I wasn't able (no cash) to take full advantage of the March buying opportunity.   I think I'm lagging behind most of you guys...........LOL

[Loki]

38 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

to what extent is the "real economy" of pay packets, mortgage payments and food shopping sufficiently coupled to the financialised corporate economy of stocks, bonds, swap lines, ETFs, commodities, derivatives etc that we might expect liquidity to move between one and the other like it has done before?

That's a great way of putting it.  That's what i love about this thread, i can see different people's 'frames' and the questions i wouldn't think to ask

[DoINeedOne]

Random 

A man smashed up a computer in the Trafford Centre as he was angry that the company's share price had dropped.

The customer, who had invested shares in the company, was frustrated that he had lost money, police said.

Posting on Twitter, officers said the man stormed into the shopping centre demanding to speak to a manager.

When he was told that wasn't possible, he damaged a computer at the customer service desk.

In a post on Twitter, put up at 12.40pm, GMP Stretford wrote: "Officers had to attend the Trafford Centre to reports of a male causing issues due him losing money after their share price dropped.

 

 

Im not sure what's worse the share price or the fact he thought the manager at trafford would help or have the answers

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Wondering the same. To extend the "pipes" analogy ... the system will only respond as quickly as the pipes can deliver the liquidity. So how big are the pipes these days?

Or to put it another way: to what extent is the "real economy" of pay packets, mortgage payments and food shopping sufficiently coupled to the financialised corporate economy of stocks, bonds, swap lines, ETFs, commodities, derivatives etc that we might expect liquidity to move between one and the other like it has done before?

Page one of the thread.Consumers wont be driving this next cycle.Of course they will consume,but probably in different ways,and not as much credit driven.The cycle will be industrial,driven from governments mostly.The CBs are putting back all the dis-inflation into the system and a very large part of it is to government.The state stepped back from driving the economy in the late 70s and early 80s mainly because of inflation and the political cycle.Unions and workers were taking too much and investment was collapsing.Today they are at the opposite end of that cycle.The reason Cummings wasnt sacked for instance is because he delivered the northern Labour seats to the Tories.He 100% understands what needs doing.My prediction is places like Teesside will be booming later in the cycle.Spygirl might even move to Boro 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

15 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Random 

A man smashed up a computer in the Trafford Centre as he was angry that the company's share price had dropped.

The customer, who had invested shares in the company, was frustrated that he had lost money, police said.

Posting on Twitter, officers said the man stormed into the shopping centre demanding to speak to a manager.

When he was told that wasn't possible, he damaged a computer at the customer service desk.

In a post on Twitter, put up at 12.40pm, GMP Stretford wrote: "Officers had to attend the Trafford Centre to reports of a male causing issues due him losing money after their share price dropped.

 

 

I'll raise you...

[Loki]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

RDSb divi just arrived, 12.68p/share

That's not a divi that's an insult  mine too. 

£8.50

Glad I bought RDSB at the bottom, but also that I've got far more in BP.

[A tremendous # on the lung]

On 20/06/2020 at 08:56, MrXxxx said:

Financial/economics newbie like me?...feel like DB el al appear to be speaking a different language?...take a look at this, one of the best articles I have read in a long time; she has a great way of explaining the complicated basics

https://www.lynalden.com/quantitative-easing-mmt-inflation/

I now understand what you guys are talking about....and it has also made me realize that QE is stealing from those who have been financially responsible to those (both companies and plebs) that haven't...

...oh, and how truly worthless FIAT is about to become!...a real `light bulb` moment.

Good article. I think this point always gets overlooked...

 

One reason that people mistakenly don’t think QE gets to Main Street, is because a lot of QE just goes to maintain existing government spending to Main Street. The government is spending more on the domestic economy (mainly on Medicare, Social Security, and the military) than they are extracting from the economy. So, it’s not like when QE occurs, everyone gets new checks; they just get to keep getting the Social Security, Medicare, military defense, and government services that they are already receiving, which is more than the tax they pay in as a nation. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

RDSb divi just arrived, 12.68p/share

Got one of Mosaic today as well.Ok not large %,but never really expected to be getting divi's from them.Poor divi from Shell.The CEO needs to go if he doesnt crank it back up with the oil price.

Noticed BPs massive gas field in Oman is about to crank up.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-starts-production-from-giant-khazzan-gas-field-in-oman-ahead-of-schedule-and-under-budget.html

Of course this ties in nicely with the above

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/uk-secures-naval-base-in-oman

 

[Loki]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The system has been pushed very very far yes and its disguising a lot of things,but the political cycle is meeting the macro.There is always a chance we dont get a reflation,but its a very small chance now.I think the question is only really the size,length and inflation.I tend to base off cycle inflation,and im using 76% over the cycle compounded.So from now until 2029/30

Just checked Twitter and Dave Hunter's tweet today is encouraging.  He even calls it an 'unloved rally', I know what that expression means now 

https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1275009938927112195

[janch]

New boss at Centrica making changes:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53136804

New digital syatem and a jobs shake up:

Centrica's jobs shake-up was ordered by its new chief executive, Chris O'Shea. He said the company had more than 80 different employee contracts, "each with multiple variants, with many of the agreements dating back over 35 years", which, he said, needed to be modernised.

 

Good luck with that

[Loki]

1 minute ago, janch said:

Centrica

"The Macbeth share", if you don't mind 

[leonardratso]

are you saying centrica might be decentrica-lising its systems? or is that old hat now.

Bout fucking time it got a kick in the arse, its a proper piece of shit, like my little foray into ukog which was a terrible 'drunk in charge of a web browser moment'.

Still, never mind it will all come good in the end (maybe).

[jamtomorrow]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Page one of the thread.Consumers wont be driving this next cycle.Of course they will consume,but probably in different ways,and not as much credit driven.The cycle will be industrial,driven from governments mostly.The CBs are putting back all the dis-inflation into the system and a very large part of it is to government.The state stepped back from driving the economy in the late 70s and early 80s mainly because of inflation and the political cycle.Unions and workers were taking too much and investment was collapsing.Today they are at the opposite end of that cycle.The reason Cummings wasnt sacked for instance is because he delivered the northern Labour seats to the Tories.He 100% understands what needs doing.My prediction is places like Teesside will be booming later in the cycle.Spygirl might even move to Boro 

 

My fear is they'll build an arc furnace on Teeside that's so automated it requires only a smattering of staff to run it, and  prosperity never really leaves the factory gate.

My hope is we're a business cycle or two away from that kind of end game.

[Talking Monkey]

35 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

My fear is they'll build an arc furnace on Teeside that's so automated it requires only a smattering of staff to run it, and  prosperity never really leaves the factory gate.

My hope is we're a business cycle or two away from that kind of end game.

Good point that, there may be a flurry of activity and lots of jobs to get the industrial capacity up, but if it is highly automated there may not be many long term jobs to run that capacity

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Got one of Mosaic today as well.Ok not large %,but never really expected to be getting divi's from them.

K&S paid out a tiny dividend last week. Which surprised me because they paid it within a week of going ex dividend which is quick and they have a lot of debt. €0.04 but worked out at around 2.5p a share after withholding taxes.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

"The Macbeth share", if you don't mind 

Can you explain? You have blood on your hands? It’s sent you mad?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Can you explain? You have blood on your hands? It’s sent you mad?

The share that cannot be named  like the Scottish play

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

Good point that, there may be a flurry of activity and lots of jobs to get the industrial capacity up, but if it is highly automated there may not be many long term jobs to run that capacity

This is not necessarily a bad thing long term. Less jobs means less supportive arguments for immigration