Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I've got that on brown vinyl.

Bloody marvellous! I think I have a cognitive dissonance disorder cos I'm a capitalist scumbag making thousands out of the oilies but really I'm a mad anarchist at heart 

 

[nirvana]

I was having a dance after last months portfolio performance

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was in a band in the 80s, we made a couple of records, did not sell that many but a bit of a cult classic. We got offered a sum to sell our rights this year and after a chat decided to take the money. It was a decent amount well more than we ever made from them. We did wonder why this came out of the blue, record companies must be seeing this as the future in terms of royalties / income, etc.

Perhaps they're expecting a big uptick in paid streaming or advertising on streaming sites. I've got Spotify on as I toil at home. I don't pay so get plenty of adverts. Appears to be way more frequent than the official half hour.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Perhaps they're expecting a big uptick in paid streaming or advertising on streaming sites. I've got Spotify on as I toil at home. I don't pay so get plenty of adverts. Appears to be way more frequent than the official half hour.

It was concerns about people getting music for free via the internet, that apparently had Bowie do the securitisation, to make sure if it happened he already had the money.

[JMD]

On 07/12/2020 at 10:22, sancho panza said:

 

@JMD thanks for the heads up. If there are any more oil exploreco's with a decent shout of production you know of, can you psot them if you feel disposeed too.

SP, I want to correct my earlier reply to you. Rockhopper i own, so i confidently recalled their info. However, i also had a few others on a watch list and have just remembered them (i looked into so many at the time) - however, i never persued these because i confess i don't know the industry, and instead was attracted to the oil majors as buy and forget/long-term holds. Obviously i can't vouch for the below companies, but you did ask and i did want to correct my earlier reply... i guess only tullow/premier fall into the high risk category we were discussing. 

Would be interested in your views on any of these if you do look into them further (i am not a very good judge of financials but reliance/saipen look half decent to me). 

Tullow oil/Premier oil - their financials look/are awful

Saipem - i mentioned this one recently

Reliance Industries - Indian conglomerate, but is mainly energy, chemicals, telecoms, so what's not too like!?!

 

Obviously, not investment advise, please dyor... for entertainment purposes only (ie the joke's on me!).

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod the spike in M1 during 2001 was due to the currency component of it.In other words lots of people brought money back into US dollars and accounts.Likely the spike was due to rich Saudis and people with Saudi money getting cash out of there in case sanctions were stuck on straight away etc like happened to Iran.It also adds to the thoughts that people in Saudi knew what was coming.

M1 tends to be money about to be spent,something is going to spike hard i expect.By March it might be velocity,unless BK hits.

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

For any anybody that owns RMG, last night was the busiest I have seen it for at least 15 years for Christmas Cards.

They have been steadily dropping off for years, it looks as if sending Christmas Cards has made a comeback due to Coronavirus.

Brings tears to this contrarians eyes 

[AWW]

8 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I work in a Mail Centre, I used to work on Deliveries when I first started and absolutely hated it.

I managed half a day during summer holidays when I was at school. Take mail from conveyor belt. Put in bag according to postcode. Couldn't take it. Got a cosy little job in B&Q instead.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Brings tears to this contrarians eyes 

Card Factory emailed me about Christmas cards today.

Not many signs of life in their share price and a bit of a slump at close today.

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Card Factory emailed me about Christmas cards today.

Not many signs of life in their share price and a bit of a slump at close today.

Job for them is to get through until next year.Government shutting them yet letting Tesco sell cards was a disgrace,company should take legal action really.Their shops are really busy again,problem they have is only letting so many into a shop at a time and the extra staff costs.Iv noticed some price increases on the quality cards and that should boost the bottom line in more normal times.They need to get debt down on the balance sheet so cant see any divis for a while.Great comany but last CEO aid out too many special divis while ramping up debt.

What might help them is basket size going up as people buy more in bulk rather than pop in for each card.The worry is as footfall falls on the high street so does their passing trade.

Very difficult year to manage and then the crazy choice of Bozo Boris to shut physical retail in November.

[Democorruptcy]

I mention the Bowie bonds and then the Starman turns up in the news! Nice mark up?

Quote

 

The Royal Mint has released new David Bowie coins as part of its “music legends” collection. One of the coins celebrating the Starman, Life On Mars? and Space Oddity singer was launched into space. The one ounce silver proof coin orbited the Earth’s atmosphere for 45 minutes before safely descending, and is now being offered as a prize via the Royal Mint’s Facebook page.

Prices range from £13 for a brilliant uncirculated £5 coin to a more “out of this world” £72,195 for a UK kilo gold coin in a denomination of £1,000. A maximum of 11 of the £72,195 gold coins will be minted.

A five ounce Bowie gold coin is also available for £11,815, in a maximum mintage of 60 coins

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/david-bowie-coin-royal-mint-b202083.html

 

 

[wherebee]

OK - I've taken 5000 profit off the BP position this morning (US afternoon) as I think the action of Texas against the four 'smokescreen states' (TM) in the Supreme Court is a strong indicator that the fight over the election will start to get pretty fucking real for more people soon, and I think there will be a bit of a sell off or panic.  I wonder how many investors have no idea of the malarkey going in in the smokescreen states and that the election is not settled by any means?

BP had held it's position compared to the other oilies, and taking a 20%+ profit slice after a few months can't be that stupid.  I could be wrong, but someone wise on here said about a hundred pages back 'no one ever went broke by taking profits'

[Nomad]

Hi I have been following this thread over 2 or 3 years with great interest, thank you to all who contribute. 

I am very interested in future house prices in the south of england. Current prices and sales are crazy. If as is being predicted inflation is going to take hold can people envisage even higher house prices? Personally I dont see how as interest rates increase surely they just become more unaffordable? On the other hand I have been expecting house price falls for 20 years and it hasnt happened yet, so why would this time be any different?

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Harley said:

Just a re-post from page 2! 

PS:  Not so sure atm but a reminder of more normal times?

A reminder of more normal times?... Get with the (global reset) program Harley, surely that was our 'old' normal, with the 'new' normal yet to be defined!!

[Green Devil]

49 minutes ago, Nomad said:

Hi I have been following this thread over 2 or 3 years with great interest, thank you to all who contribute. 

I am very interested in future house prices in the south of england. Current prices and sales are crazy. If as is being predicted inflation is going to take hold can people envisage even higher house prices? Personally I dont see how as interest rates increase surely they just become more unaffordable? On the other hand I have been expecting house price falls for 20 years and it hasnt happened yet, so why would this time be any different?

Inflation generally does mean higher prices for assets. However housing has other factors involved, deposits, jobs, salary multiples. Personally I think there will be price creep, that is creeping prices, not booming prices. Interest rates won't rise, they will just keep falling. 

Housing also gets to a point where you look at the figures and say fuck it I'm not paying that for that many years to live in that. I think we're are pretty close to that now in the South. 

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Harley said:

Anyone gone back to look at their own (and others) posts on this and the preceding thread (part 1) in their perennial search for self improvement?  The good, the bad, the ugly.  Noticed I was talking a lot about out there stuff way back (regulation, meaning of money, coming reset, stores of value) that is all centre stage now in our viral wonderland.

I agree, and your concerns about that 'out there stuff' have become very real, with a more interfering and powerful state encroaching into both our public and private lives being born out by governments cynical/manipulative reaction to the panicdemic.  My personal state of nirvana would be to achieve a store of value outside of the economic system... a 'First Full of... BTC' anyone?!?

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Nomad said:

Hi I have been following this thread over 2 or 3 years with great interest, thank you to all who contribute. 

I am very interested in future house prices in the south of england. Current prices and sales are crazy. If as is being predicted inflation is going to take hold can people envisage even higher house prices? Personally I dont see how as interest rates increase surely they just become more unaffordable? On the other hand I have been expecting house price falls for 20 years and it hasnt happened yet, so why would this time be any different?

The cycle is against southern housing.A massive amount of mortgage sustaining jobs wont be coming back,the cycle will be more northern industrial based.The old Danelaw areas.It could be they are simly destroyed by infation and flatline nominal,though down nominal and inflation adjusted is likely.

Inflation will mean capital flows to other areas that can make a return,and government wont be getting any printing from the BOE after another 18/24 months maximum,likely much less.

[Green Devil]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The cycle is against southern housing.A massive amount of mortgage sustaining jobs wont be coming back,the cycle will be more northern industrial based.The old Danelaw areas.It could be they are simly destroyed by infation and flatline nominal,though down nominal and inflation adjusted is likely.

Inflation will mean capital flows to other areas that can make a return,and government wont be getting any printing from the BOE after another 18/24 months maximum,likely much less.

No more printy printy? 😭😭 Ill believe when I see it! I think if we do get to that stage we really are screwed. 

[jamtomorrow]

More fluttering from the Wealth Tax kites:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55236851

This part is comedy gold:

"A 1% per year tax rate could be imposed for five years on wealth of more than £1m per two-person household, the Wealth Commission said."

Best of luck with that one.

By the time anything like this is implemented, they'll have "discovered" that pinning down the net worth of truly wealthy individuals is like nailing the proverbial to the wall. So they'll be coming after mugs like us instead - it'll be more like: anything over £100K and it'll be the SIPPs and ISAs they go for, because they're sitting ducks.

[planit]

Just now, Green Devil said:

No more printy printy? 😭😭 Ill believe when I see it! I think if we do get to that stage we really are screwed. 

Central bankers have been scared of having an economic correction on their watch up to now, they hit the print button as soon as things look dicey.

 

But this will change very quickly if it looks like they might end up destroying the pound. Having your name permanently written as the person who destroyed sterling would be orders of magnitude worse.

 

So the question is:

Can they print forever without inflation taking off (I can't believe Japan is still going)?

 

If it looks as though inflation is getting out of control they will hit the stop button hard and quickly which will cause a huge crash. I agree with DB that they will let inflation go much further this time, over the last 15 years they have always been wary of inflation taking off in their notes but the attitude is different now, no one will want to stop the recovery and by the time they realise it will be too late.

An insane recovery boom over the next 6 months will get inflation going. If people get their confidence back (and it is contagious) the velocity of money recovery spending all the horded money should surprise everyone.

 

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

More fluttering from the Wealth Tax kites:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55236851

In that article is a link to Argentina doing a wealth tax and what they are supposed to be spending it on:

Quote

 

the money raised, 20% will go to medical supplies, 20% to relief for small and medium-sized businesses, 20% to scholarships for students, 15% to social developments, and the remaining 25% to natural gas ventures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55199058

 

 

[DoINeedOne]

 

Marc van Gerven, who headed the solar, storage and onshore wind businesses at Shell, Eric Bradley, who worked in Shell’s distributed energy division, and Katherine Dixon, a leader in its energy transition strategy team, have all left the company in recent weeks. Dorine Bosman, Shell’s vice-president for offshore wind, is also due to leave the company. Several other top executives in the clean energy part of the business also plan to exit in the coming months, two of the people said. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more high-profile departures Person familiar with the internal split Not every move is known to be linked to frustration about the pace of change but people familiar with the internal debate said there were deep divisions over the timeframe for reducing the company’s dependence on oil and gas revenues

 

lol

 

 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

More fluttering from the Wealth Tax kites:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55236851

This part is comedy gold:

"A 1% per year tax rate could be imposed for five years on wealth of more than £1m per two-person household, the Wealth Commission said."

Best of luck with that one.

By the time anything like this is implemented, they'll have "discovered" that pinning down the net worth of truly wealthy individuals is like nailing the proverbial to the wall. So they'll be coming after mugs like us instead - it'll be more like: anything over £100K and it'll be the SIPPs and ISAs they go for, because they're sitting ducks.

For you lot in the UK, you should be diversifying now in my view.  A little something hidden away every month could be very very valuable in years to come.  Doesn't have to be gold or silver - even something as mundane as a very high quality tool for the garage which will have resale value in 20 years....

 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, Nomad said:

Hi I have been following this thread over 2 or 3 years with great interest, thank you to all who contribute. 

I am very interested in future house prices in the south of england. Current prices and sales are crazy. If as is being predicted inflation is going to take hold can people envisage even higher house prices? Personally I dont see how as interest rates increase surely they just become more unaffordable? On the other hand I have been expecting house price falls for 20 years and it hasnt happened yet, so why would this time be any different?

You are wrongly assuming housing affects interest rates.

Its the other way around.

Despite the BS on 'independence' the FED sets UK rates. More so these days, as the $ is the only game in currencies now, both the Yen and Euro disappearing back into their hole.

The US economy is coming back very strong.

The Us will not be as badly affected as the UK and EU as they just dont have that many poorly old people.

Sure, covid will take out fatties and what.

The US also doesnt have a bloated welfare state, which keeps 30-50% of workign age on some sort of bennies.

The London/South housign market is going to dei on aits arse.

IN ~2000, Id guess guess the London/Souther economy was mainly finsec and retail, with the services around them.

Those sectors are dead now, in terms of large number of well paid employees.

Housing markets are driven by the 30-55 age group.

By bailing out the 30 (no 45) and 55 (now 60) age group of 2008, the BoE/UKGOV basically fucked the then 20-30 year olds of 2008.

Todays 30-55 have to by the houses with real earnings, under 4x  LTE.

Find out the average 30-55 earnings in the South (hint - ~30-50% will be on TCs) and work out selling prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, planit said:

Central bankers have been scared of having an economic correction on their watch up to now, they hit the print button as soon as things look dicey.

 

But this will change very quickly if it looks like they might end up destroying the pound. Having your name permanently written as the person who destroyed sterling would be orders of magnitude worse.

 

So the question is:

Can they print forever without inflation taking off (I can't believe Japan is still going)?

 

If it looks as though inflation is getting out of control they will hit the stop button hard and quickly which will cause a huge crash. I agree with DB that they will let inflation go much further this time, over the last 15 years they have always been wary of inflation taking off in their notes but the attitude is different now, no one will want to stop the recovery and by the time they realise it will be too late.

An insane recovery boom over the next 6 months will get inflation going. If people get their confidence back (and it is contagious) the velocity of money recovery spending all the horded money should surprise everyone.

 

QE does not make a country wealthy- make cake bigger. Just into thinner slices.

Japan is an export machine with a very loyal onshore debt holders. Mrs Yomoko is the modern day equivalent of the No Surrender Jap soldier on a Pacific island.

The UK is not Japan, not by a long shot.

The BoE may choose to drag its heels on rasing rates - it already. All that happens is that earnings get destroyed, which will destroy house prices further.

Te pound like all currencies, wont be destroyed. It will just be worth less n less. Despite the bulshit, the UKGOV have been doing that years.

Compare the UK agiainst a harder currency country, say, Switzerland.

Weak curencies never worked as a means for economic progress. They wrok even less now as the $ dominates trade. If you curency falls against $ than your ecnomy does too.