Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Nomad]

There appears no stopping house prices. I've been saying they are overpriced for 20 years, still waiting for the adjustment. I just don't think it is ever going to happen now. The govt just won't let it happen, so much for a free market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56095357

 

[Heart's Ease]

12 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

I see Buffett has sold some Apple, and bought some Chevron. And some Verizon.

$4.1 bn and $8.6 bn worth, respectively.

Also saw this ^

[Heart's Ease]

11 minutes ago, nomadic said:

I am staying in a hotel room in the Algarve, Portugal and bought a portable single hob for €15 and cook out on my balcony.

The hotel does a €10 menu delivered to the room, but I am paying less than €13 a night to stay here, so I cook my own. Nice 3 star hotel too with a pool. 

Anyway, I have become a master of cooking on one hob. Even made lasagne the other night. Rarely spend more than €3 per meal. Lunch is usually around €2 a day. I only eat two meals in a strict 8 hour window.

The money I have made with Great Panther alone has paid 3 months living expenses here, with a surprisingly small initial investment!

The Mighty Panther 🍻🍻

I know the first love here is the pizza oven, but for stays like yours where there's electric I would go Remoska. Fab fab cookbook, only 400w.  It's the last kitchen item I'd be rid of.  Use it most days.  Wonderful thing.

https://www.lakeland.co.uk/brands/remoska-brand

[nomadic]

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I think that's rather likely, based on my own previous work on stimulus, which goes something like:

Back of fag packet... so UK GDP in GBP is about 1/10 of US GDP IN USD, and they're going for $1.9 trillion... so, divide by ten and...

EDIT TO ADD - Sterling up to $1.39 yesterday.  Don't want that getting too out of whack, so again... base case is £190 billion.

I am doing some investigative work on central bank stimulus and currency moves to try and uncover some long term bets for the race to the bottom e.g. those who will be last to arrive!

I suspect currencies like the Singapore $, Norwegian, Swiss etc. will potentially hold up well - but need to find more.

I have done well out of medium term currency trades (1 to 3 months) and it's a nice little backup to traditional investing. The great reset of currencies does make me nervous though, so I don't plan to hold much cash long term.

[AWW]

23 minutes ago, Nomad said:

There appears no stopping house prices. I've been saying they are overpriced for 20 years, still waiting for the adjustment. I just don't think it is ever going to happen now. The govt just won't let it happen, so much for a free market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56095357

 

The headline figure masks some very interesting price action in different areas at different price levels.

[working woman]

39 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Rolls Royce - Any comments on the fundamentals here?

 

I have just had a look at the chart and a Golden Cross has just been made with the 100 and 200 day moving averages, which can be seen as a Buy Signal for the longer term.

Re Fundamentals: Things are looking more positive re Covid.  Israel had good results with the Pfizer vaccine, based on research on 800,000 people vaccinated. Here we have vaccinated most of the elderly and they are moving onto the younger vulnerable people. My sister 52, vulnerable, got the Astra Zenecca jab  this week. 

At work (large retailer), I am currently on Furlough. Today Manager has told us that Boris is apparently giving a speech next Monday. My employer thinks/hopes shops will re-open last week of March.  

If so, the NHS need to get going on the 2nd jabs for the vulnerable - this gives them 6 weeks. 

Then they plan to do the over 50's by end May. I hope they won't keep restrictions until the end of May.

[DoINeedOne]

15 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When I used to go to Blockbuster to rent a film, my wife would wander around the store with a basket. Popcorn, sweets, pringles and ben & jerry ice cream. Used to cost about £20, twenty years ago.

Then another £100 in late fees

[feed]

As someone briefly mentioned Ford and EV's 

Internal today, 

Ford of Europe team,

Earlier this month, Jim Farley announced a huge step forward in Ford’s global commitment to electrification and the future vision of our company. Today, I am delighted to announce a historic and pivotal moment in the modernization of our business here in Europe.

Two years ago, we embarked on the transformation of our business in Europe and I’m proud to say that our turnaround is well underway. As our fourth quarter results show, in the final three months of 2020, we made a profit of over $400 million.  Equally important, each of our three business lines – commercial vehicle, passenger vehicle and imports – were profitable. 

Make no mistake, this is testament to your tireless work, unwavering dedication and, most importantly, pulling together as a team. That we were able to return to profitability in the fourth quarter – our best quarterly profit in four years – is no small feat, especially when you consider we were dealing with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic and other headwinds.

Now, we must take this strong base and boldly move forward. Electrification is a key step in that journey. 

We have been making good progress in electrifying our product line-up in recent years, but we need to accelerate our plans; we need to go “all-in” on electrification. Today, I am delighted to announce that the time is now. 

As a business, we are committing to all of our passenger vehicle range being capable of zero-emissions by 2026, with either all-electric or plug-in hybrid models in each nameplate, and that our passenger vehicles will be completely all-electric by 2030. 

We’re going “all-in” on electrifying our commercial vehicles, too. By 2024, our entire commercial vehicle range in Europe will be zero-emissions capable; and we expect two-thirds of our CV sales will be all-electric or plug-in hybrid by 2030. 

This is a bold plan and statement of our intent, symbolic of our Bring on Tomorrow passenger vehicle brand promise. To hear more on this, please watch this video. 

To help us deliver on this promise, I am delighted to announce a new $1 billion investment in our Cologne vehicle assembly facility. This investment will be used to transform the current facility into one of the largest electric passenger vehicle manufacturing centers in Europe. To reflect our new direction, it will be renamed the Ford Cologne Electrification Center. 

I can also confirm that our first European-built volume, all-electric passenger vehicle will be designed and developed at Merkenich and produced in Cologne from 2023. 

This $1 billion investment is one of the largest we have ever made in Europe. It underlines our commitment to the region, and our unwavering belief in a bright, modern future, with electric vehicles at the heart of our strategy for growth.

We will be sharing more details on the European electrification plan and the transformation of the Cologne site in the coming weeks and months. In the meantime, click here to read the media release which goes public shortly.  

I hope you share my excitement about the next breath-taking chapter of Ford in Europe. 

Thank you for everything you do for Ford. 
 

[harp]

40 minutes ago, Nomad said:

There appears no stopping house prices. I've been saying they are overpriced for 20 years, still waiting for the adjustment. I just don't think it is ever going to happen now. The govt just won't let it happen, so much for a free market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56095357

 

I’ve had an offer on my detached house in the south east. It wasn’t on the market. Friend of a friend thing. But the offer was much higher than I thought it was ‘worth’. So out of interest started looking around to downsize. Not much out there in my price range. But found a lovely place, all done and only 700meters away. Perfect. Turns out it’s guy who offered on my place 🤔. So we had a chat and discussed a swop and 300k in my direction. BUT he offered 100k in cash as he can only borrow the extra 200k. Not sure what to do to be honest. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, harp said:

Good results for BAT. Shares drop 6%  

Bought a few more! 

Market probably wanted 4% divi increase instead of 2.5% .Debt down again by £2.6 billion.Thats the bit i always check first as it wants to be falling by 5% a year.They also took advantage this last year to structure their debt at low rates and never a year where more than $4 billion comes due.That means they should be able to deleverage and only roll over 40% maximum.Debt is still too high,but getting down into a range where they can start buy backs,probably at 2.7x debt its 3.3 at the moment.

[DurhamBorn]

@Vendetta VOD,TEF,BT,Telenor,Telia ,dont expect fireworks but a nice slow run higher over the cycle + divis.Not advice etc.

[JMD]

On 16/02/2021 at 01:21, Hunty said:

RE. BP.

It's volatility is a trader's wet dream. Same with Shell.

Buy in structured tranches. Sell in highs. Buy in dips.

It's a sit on the couch and make easy money stock. A traders stock. Long time hold. Not my choice. But we all are entitled to our own opinion. None right none wrong.

It gives an income if your pot is of a size so to offer a range of buy and sell points.

I am biased. ~£500k AV 2.65.

Worst case scenario. A bond paying 2% above their arsewit inflation figure.

Energy is money is the economy. All else is makeup.

My opinion.

GLA.

Hunty, what's the AV 2.65 figure? BP touched 196 briefly, so can't be your average price, or can it?

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've been playing a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on Rolls Royce, looks like a strong bottoming pattern to me. Monthly momentum indicators look good too. Any comments on the fundamentals here? I guess engine maintenance coming back is a big boost on the horizon. Modular nuclear?

Decl: I've added quite a lot through that right shoulder. Quite possibly too soon! Dyodd

I really like them, their pay as you go engine maintenance plan means there should be a "rubber band" effect as planes start flying again.  Meant to add last week and forgot, I still think they are good value around 100 though.

[JMD]

23 hours ago, leonardratso said:

 

KAZ MINERALS PLC - Take-Over

 

Recommended Cash Acquisition by Nova Resources B.V. (NOVA).

GBP7.80 for each Kaz Minerals Plc (KAZ) share held.

You Have The Following Option:

1	Accept the Offer on your holding of 48 KAZ MINERALS PLC ORD GBP0.20 shares.
	We will process your instruction on or after 03 March 2021 23:59 and your election will be applied to your holding at this time. If you elect to accept the Offer, your shares will not be available for you to sell, or to accept any other Offer unless this Offer lapses. Please note that if you accept the Offer and proceed to sell your shares, you may be liable to buy back costs.

---

Important Information & Other Key Dates:

On 28th October 2020, the Board of NOVA and Independent Committee of KAZ announced they had reached an agreement on the terms of a recommended cash offer (Offer) for all of the issued and to be issued share capital of KAZ. Subsequently, on 4th February 2021 the Offer was significantly increased.

The increased Offer Price represents a premium of approximately 52 percent to the Closing Price of GBP5.124 per KAZ Minerals Share on 2nd October 2020 (being the last Business Day prior to agreement in respect of the Original Offer having been reached with the Independent Committee).

The Independent Directors, having been so advised by Citigroup and UBS consider the terms of the Offer to be fair and reasonable. Accordingly, the KAZ Directors will unanimously recommend that the KAZ Shareholders accept the Offer.

If NOVA receives acceptances under the Offer in respect of, and/or otherwise acquires 90 percent or more of the KAZ shares and assuming that all of the other conditions of the Offer have been satisfied or waived, NOVA intends to exercise its rights pursuant to the provisions of Chapter 3 of Part 28 of the Companies Act to acquire compulsorily the remaining KAZ shares on the same terms as the Offer.

Also, if the Offer becomes or is declared unconditional in all respects, with sufficient acceptances having been received, NOVA intends to procure that KAZ will make an application for the cancellation of the listing of the KAZ Shares on the Official List and for the cancellation of trading of the KAZ Shares on the London Stock Exchange's (LSE) main market for listed securities.

Please be aware that should you choose to accept the Offer, your entitlement will not be released until the Offer has been declared unconditional in all respects, as stipulated in the Takeover Code. Once the Offer has been declared unconditional in all respects, payment is expected to no sooner than 10 working days following the date of such announcement or our advice date, whichever is the later. You can monitor the progress of the Offer's acceptances through any regulatory news provider. However, we will notify you once your entitlement has been credited to your account.

If you wish to accept the Offer, please do so as soon as possible as the Offer may not be extended.

Before making any decision please take into consideration all relevant factors of the event including the current share price and any possible tax implications. If you require any further information in making your decision please contact an appropriate professional advisor.

Should you choose not to accept the Offer at this time, we will contact you again if the Offer is extended, the terms of the Offer change, the stock is compulsorily acquired or if we are notified that the Offer is closing.

Please note that acceptance to this Offer will only be applied to the number of shares you hold at the time we process your instruction.

Please note that should you elect to accept the Offer, your shares will be removed from your account after our Advice Date and will not be available for you to sell.

Should you wish to find more information about the Offer, please visit https://www.kazminerals.com/investors/announcement/details/

---

 

I own Kaz minerals (well a few shares!) Any suggestions for a replacement copper miner?                                                              I note that Nova resources are private equity, a trend I've mentioned before ...'public investments' going private, and never to be seen again most probably!

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Nomad said:

There appears no stopping house prices. I've been saying they are overpriced for 20 years, still waiting for the adjustment. I just don't think it is ever going to happen now. The govt just won't let it happen, so much for a free market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56095357

 

As discussed before it’s on a cliff edge for property (yes been said many times before but it’s now it never). After the stamp duty extension come April/May it’s either major government backed intervention or nothing. The last year of the stamp duty holiday skewed the upper end of the market which of course effected the national average statistics on paper only. 

BTL is dead is inflicting pain on the voids through the Covid fallout (especially in the city centres) and that’s before reduced rents and increased competition on flats and costs on fire safety measures. Two personally I know of are down £10k and £12k through voids alone last year. That’s not even taking into account when the full tax implications have been felt in addition. 

The government will have to pull negative rates and government backed mortgages out of the hat to keep it up over x8 earnings and forever moving upwards through the greatest recession in 300 years, while wages stagnate and livings costs are eaten away with inflation.

[Bricormortis]

41 minutes ago, feed said:

As someone briefly mentioned Ford and EV's 

Internal today, 

Ford of Europe team,

Earlier this month, Jim Farley announced a huge step forward in Ford’s global commitment to electrification and the future vision of our company. Today, I am delighted to announce a historic and pivotal moment in the modernization of our business here in Europe.

Two years ago, we embarked on the transformation of our business in Europe and I’m proud to say that our turnaround is well underway. As our fourth quarter results show, in the final three months of 2020, we made a profit of over $400 million.  Equally important, each of our three business lines – commercial vehicle, passenger vehicle and imports – were profitable. 

Make no mistake, this is testament to your tireless work, unwavering dedication and, most importantly, pulling together as a team. That we were able to return to profitability in the fourth quarter – our best quarterly profit in four years – is no small feat, especially when you consider we were dealing with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic and other headwinds.

Now, we must take this strong base and boldly move forward. Electrification is a key step in that journey. 

We have been making good progress in electrifying our product line-up in recent years, but we need to accelerate our plans; we need to go “all-in” on electrification. Today, I am delighted to announce that the time is now. 

As a business, we are committing to all of our passenger vehicle range being capable of zero-emissions by 2026, with either all-electric or plug-in hybrid models in each nameplate, and that our passenger vehicles will be completely all-electric by 2030. 

We’re going “all-in” on electrifying our commercial vehicles, too. By 2024, our entire commercial vehicle range in Europe will be zero-emissions capable; and we expect two-thirds of our CV sales will be all-electric or plug-in hybrid by 2030. 

This is a bold plan and statement of our intent, symbolic of our Bring on Tomorrow passenger vehicle brand promise. To hear more on this, please watch this video. 

To help us deliver on this promise, I am delighted to announce a new $1 billion investment in our Cologne vehicle assembly facility. This investment will be used to transform the current facility into one of the largest electric passenger vehicle manufacturing centers in Europe. To reflect our new direction, it will be renamed the Ford Cologne Electrification Center. 

I can also confirm that our first European-built volume, all-electric passenger vehicle will be designed and developed at Merkenich and produced in Cologne from 2023. 

This $1 billion investment is one of the largest we have ever made in Europe. It underlines our commitment to the region, and our unwavering belief in a bright, modern future, with electric vehicles at the heart of our strategy for growth.

We will be sharing more details on the European electrification plan and the transformation of the Cologne site in the coming weeks and months. In the meantime, click here to read the media release which goes public shortly.  

I hope you share my excitement about the next breath-taking chapter of Ford in Europe. 

Thank you for everything you do for Ford. 
 

Jaguar is going all electric by 2025.

[JMD]

50 minutes ago, harp said:

I’ve had an offer on my detached house in the south east. It wasn’t on the market. Friend of a friend thing. But the offer was much higher than I thought it was ‘worth’. So out of interest started looking around to downsize. Not much out there in my price range. But found a lovely place, all done and only 700meters away. Perfect. Turns out it’s guy who offered on my place 🤔. So we had a chat and discussed a swop and 300k in my direction. BUT he offered 100k in cash as he can only borrow the extra 200k. Not sure what to do to be honest. 

Sounds like a once in a lifetime opportunity to me. After all, no estate agent fee or stamp duty, perhaps say to him that you'll complete the sale whilst there is no stamp duty but would expect a reduction pro rata if stamp is reintroduced? Depends how eager he is to buy your house I suppose. Although I'd definitely get a couple of valuations on your own house... Then sit back (smugly?!) with you stash of cash and wait for the BK!!!

[DoINeedOne]

So with all these car companies stating they will be going all electric 2025+, also noticed a few deliveries including one from amazon stating they where by electric vans

Who owns the charge points and can grow them faster

Shell bought Ubitricity and you have BP Pulse

 

 

[arrow]

29 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

So with all these car companies stating they will be going all electric 2025+, also noticed a few deliveries including one from amazon stating they where by electric vans

Who owns the charge points and can grow them faster

Shell bought Ubitricity and you have BP Pulse

 

 

Total bought Source London from Bolloré Group, last year. Source London is the largest EV charging network in Londinium

Edf bought PodPoint last year. Podpoint is the 3rd largest UK ev charging network

As you said, Shell bought ubitricity which gives it Ev charging in Europe and the Uk.

And BP bought Chargemaster and Polar a few years ago, rolling them into BP pulse. It may be the largest. Not sure.

I'm expecting Total/Shell/BP to expand EV charging across Europe, buying out companies as they go. Total already has a network in Europe but shoud be expanding with other oilies

[Hancock]

43 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Jaguar is going all electric by 2025.

I wonder what Prince Phillip has to say about Indians wiring cars.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, harp said:

I’ve had an offer on my detached house in the south east. It wasn’t on the market. Friend of a friend thing. But the offer was much higher than I thought it was ‘worth’. So out of interest started looking around to downsize. Not much out there in my price range. But found a lovely place, all done and only 700meters away. Perfect. Turns out it’s guy who offered on my place 🤔. So we had a chat and discussed a swop and 300k in my direction. BUT he offered 100k in cash as he can only borrow the extra 200k. Not sure what to do to be honest. 

So you'll get £300k and a decent house near by. Sounds like you've won the property market lottery.

[janch]

@DurhamBorn Are you posting on this other site in disguise?

Charlie said...

............the integrated oil companies keep putting out press releases about how great wind power is. Their real competition is nuclear, and they'll do everything they can to ensure nobody talks about it.

The dinosaurs that dig up dinosaurs have got at least another business cycle in them, and it's going to be a monster bull. They don't even need oil to be particularly expensive, especially if they sell a lot of gas too.

 

It's not the first time I've found more or less your words posted by Charlie in the comments.  It's from an energy article about the uselessness of solar panels when they are covered in snow and about energy in Germany. 

May be of interest and chimes with what's said here.

http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/

[DurhamBorn]

Its the gas needed to make the electric when the wind isnt blowing that will make the money from EVs.

6 minutes ago, janch said:

@DurhamBorn Are you posting on this other site in disguise?

Charlie said...

............the integrated oil companies keep putting out press releases about how great wind power is. Their real competition is nuclear, and they'll do everything they can to ensure nobody talks about it.

The dinosaurs that dig up dinosaurs have got at least another business cycle in them, and it's going to be a monster bull. They don't even need oil to be particularly expensive, especially if they sell a lot of gas too.

 

It's not the first time I've found more or less your words posted by Charlie in the comments.  It's from an energy article about the uselessness of solar panels when they are covered in snow and about energy in Germany. 

May be of interest and chimes with what's said here.

http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/

Maybe reads here,or is dotting the same i,s as us here.Gas is the real driver of the cycle,not oil.Oil is the bonus.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, feed said:

As someone briefly mentioned Ford and EV's 

Internal today, 

Ford of Europe team,

Earlier this month, Jim Farley announced a huge step forward in Ford’s global commitment to electrification and the future vision of our company. Today, I am delighted to announce a historic and pivotal moment in the modernization of our business here in Europe.

Two years ago, we embarked on the transformation of our business in Europe and I’m proud to say that our turnaround is well underway. As our fourth quarter results show, in the final three months of 2020, we made a profit of over $400 million.  Equally important, each of our three business lines – commercial vehicle, passenger vehicle and imports – were profitable. 

Make no mistake, this is testament to your tireless work, unwavering dedication and, most importantly, pulling together as a team. That we were able to return to profitability in the fourth quarter – our best quarterly profit in four years – is no small feat, especially when you consider we were dealing with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic and other headwinds.

Now, we must take this strong base and boldly move forward. Electrification is a key step in that journey. 

We have been making good progress in electrifying our product line-up in recent years, but we need to accelerate our plans; we need to go “all-in” on electrification. Today, I am delighted to announce that the time is now. 

As a business, we are committing to all of our passenger vehicle range being capable of zero-emissions by 2026, with either all-electric or plug-in hybrid models in each nameplate, and that our passenger vehicles will be completely all-electric by 2030. 

We’re going “all-in” on electrifying our commercial vehicles, too. By 2024, our entire commercial vehicle range in Europe will be zero-emissions capable; and we expect two-thirds of our CV sales will be all-electric or plug-in hybrid by 2030. 

This is a bold plan and statement of our intent, symbolic of our Bring on Tomorrow passenger vehicle brand promise. To hear more on this, please watch this video. 

To help us deliver on this promise, I am delighted to announce a new $1 billion investment in our Cologne vehicle assembly facility. This investment will be used to transform the current facility into one of the largest electric passenger vehicle manufacturing centers in Europe. To reflect our new direction, it will be renamed the Ford Cologne Electrification Center. 

I can also confirm that our first European-built volume, all-electric passenger vehicle will be designed and developed at Merkenich and produced in Cologne from 2023. 

This $1 billion investment is one of the largest we have ever made in Europe. It underlines our commitment to the region, and our unwavering belief in a bright, modern future, with electric vehicles at the heart of our strategy for growth.

We will be sharing more details on the European electrification plan and the transformation of the Cologne site in the coming weeks and months. In the meantime, click here to read the media release which goes public shortly.  

I hope you share my excitement about the next breath-taking chapter of Ford in Europe. 

Thank you for everything you do for Ford. 
 

I briefly mentioned Ford as they're seen as a play elsewhere due to popular new US vehicles including a very profitable truck alongside electricification. I doubt their European and rest of the World popularity. Without checking exact figures something like 60% of sales are North American. I also doubt electric vehicles at the mass market level until charging is much faster or people are priced out. Otherwise you need off road parking and lots don't have that. Also the extra electricity generation capacity required.

I'm not going to get involved as I'm sticking mostly to the thesis of this thread. I would be interested if someone could make a case for Ford doing well outside of North America. It means designing good small to mid size cars rather than trucks. Electric alone won't be enough as everyone will do that.

[feed]

9 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I briefly mentioned Ford as they're seen as a play elsewhere due to popular new US vehicles including a very profitable truck alongside electricification. I doubt their European and rest of the World popularity. Without checking exact figures something like 60% of sales are North American. I also doubt electric vehicles at the mass market level until charging is much faster or people are priced out. Otherwise you need off road parking and lots don't have that. Also the extra electricity generation capacity required.

I'm not going to get involved as I'm sticking mostly to the thesis of this thread. I would be interested if someone could make a case for Ford doing well outside of North America. It means designing good small to mid size cars rather than trucks. Electric alone won't be enough as everyone will do that.

I work Ford.  EV’s are there to drive a change in the business model (as well as some protectionism from future cheap ICE from China built with stolen IP).  So the change isn’t really ICE to EV.  It’s from ownership to passenger cars as a service.  Whether this is a profitable or not, remains to be seen.  But if they don’t, they're dead anyway.  

But, yes the sensible play, is based on more gas for electricity generation from the energy companies.