Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Errol]

Russia's wealth fund could be invested in gold

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/71363/

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Harley.

 

All leveraged positions in Poly and CEY must close by 3pm today. On IG.

Might have contributed to the stock being held back. Poly falls quite heavy. Got my buyin targets though, albeit a tad early as the bottom was 1400p.

An awful lot of Director buys this week for CEY.

Whispers of a bid coming maybe Newmont. 150p a share minimum.

Kerching.

Some big crossing trades aswell. Me thinks Gold and Silver are being primed for a lift off.

 

Ta.  Why they doing that and does it apply to all those on the list like 888?

[Harley]

56 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

When is a home no longer a home? 

Thousands of staff at one of the world’s biggest call centre companies face being monitored by webcams to check whether they are eating, looking at their phones or leaving their desks while working from home, the Guardian has learned.

In a sign of potential battles ahead over the surveillance of remote staff after the pandemic, Teleperformance – which employs about 380,000 people in 34 countries and counts dozens of major UK companies and government departments among its clients – has told some staff that specialist webcams will be fitted to check for home-working “infractions”.

While these will in part be used for team meetings and training, the cameras are also connected to an artificial intelligence system that will randomly scan for breaches of work rules during a shift. If one is detected, a still photo will be sent to a manager and stored for up to 20 days, according to documents sent to staff.

If workers need to leave their desks, for example to have a drink, they will have to click “break mode” in an app to explain why, for example “getting water”, to avoid being reported for a breach.

Shock alert: company admits it doesn't know how to manage its staff performance?

[Errol]

9 hours ago, feed said:

Rishis right, the only way we start to see any return to anything like normality is when people start going back to the office.  There are people in the state that would have everyone locked in their bedrooms for

It isn't going to ever go back to what was the old normal. And the old 'normal' wasn't desirable anyway. Anyone who has commuted for years knows that it is hell and a shocking waste of money and time. Nobody wants to go back to that.

The past 12+ months have demonstrated for most London office jobs that people can work from home in many cases even more efficiently than in the office. Nearly all the companies I know have already now moved to at minimum 50% home working. 

So the Government needs to plan for at least 50% less footfall, 50% less use of trains etc etc. That's baked in already. Nobody in their right mind would try to argue that commuting is a sensible or desirable thing to to. 

Pandora's box is open and it's too late. Far too late.

[JREWING]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta.  Why they doing that and does it apply to all those on the list like 888?

Yes all are 100% bought outright on the list.

My guess is, obviously I'm biased.

They're going to the moon. Maybe even Mars. Being leveraged means less cash outlay bigger gains which IG cannot cover in the event of a Mars landing.

[feed]

7 minutes ago, Errol said:

Nearly all the companies I know have already now moved to at minimum 50% home working. 

So the Government needs to plan for at least 50% less footfall, 50% less use of trains etc etc. That's baked in already. Nobody in their right mind would try to argue that commuting is a sensible or desirable thing to to. 

Pandora's box is open and it's too late. Far too late.

50% on average for office workers sounds about right. Which isn't where we are today.  

And it isn't 50% less.  It's 50% somewhere else.  The time & money people spent on commuting doesn't disappear, it goes somewhere else.  

[Errol]

24 minutes ago, feed said:

50% on average for office workers sounds about right. Which isn't where we are today.  

And it isn't 50% less.  It's 50% somewhere else.  The time & money people spent on commuting doesn't disappear, it goes somewhere else.  

Agree. But it means a place like London will be 50% down. The small towns where people used to commute from will benefit.

[Castlevania]

5 hours ago, JREWING said:

LIST LINK

 

Two of my miners may be affected?

Polymetal and CEY are on the list.

Wondered why Polymetal was having a bad few days.

Hope CEY moves north post Monday, plenty of director buys recently.

 

The list of affected shares that will be withdrawn from spread betting and CFD accounts.

2	Please close positions by Monday 29 March 2021, from which point we will start to close any remaining open positions
3	You will still be able to buy the majority of shares outright using our share dealing service You have until Monday 29 March 2021 to close your open positions on affected markets, from which point we will start to close any positions still open. Positions will be closed as soon as practical from this point, while ensuring that all reasonable steps are taken to obtain the best results for our clients.

 

It’s bollocks. They don’t hedge.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

So the Government needs to plan for at least 50% less footfall, 50% less use of trains

They are planning ... by spending over £100 bln on a slightly faster train line from London to Birmingham.

[Chewing Grass]

If you run a business you want to run it efficiently with little wasted time so why the hell should the government expect workers not to run their non-profitable time more efficiently after all a life-time is finite just like resources.

Commuting is non-profitable time.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Commuting is non-profitable time.

I've made immense imaginary profits, outcomes and alternate lives while sat on the A40/A4/A316

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

When is a home no longer a home? 

Thousands of staff at one of the world’s biggest call centre companies face being monitored by webcams to check whether they are eating, looking at their phones or leaving their desks while working from home, the Guardian has learned.

In a sign of potential battles ahead over the surveillance of remote staff after the pandemic, Teleperformance – which employs about 380,000 people in 34 countries and counts dozens of major UK companies and government departments among its clients – has told some staff that specialist webcams will be fitted to check for home-working “infractions”.

While these will in part be used for team meetings and training, the cameras are also connected to an artificial intelligence system that will randomly scan for breaches of work rules during a shift. If one is detected, a still photo will be sent to a manager and stored for up to 20 days, according to documents sent to staff.

If workers need to leave their desks, for example to have a drink, they will have to click “break mode” in an app to explain why, for example “getting water”, to avoid being reported for a breach.

I remember when webcams first came out.Diane from Canada,ICQ and 8 cans of LCL made for a lovely evening.

As long as BT bump the prices with inflation + 3.8% its all good.

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Agree. But it means a place like London will be 50% down. The small towns where people used to commute from will benefit.

If I'm still working from home when the pubs open I'll be having some lovely pub lunches.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I agree, and I'd thought this too like "town will be busier" without thinkingit through and "maybe go and look at some commercial property in town". 

When I was standing on the platform at 6.00am, its about 80% men. God knows what all the wives do during the day but I suspect there are a lot of affairs in trouble now and Joey the gardener will have to work for a living 

The demise of the milkman in the 70s when the supermarket started selling milk, the demise of the gardner due to WFH, whatever/whoever is next eh?

[MrXxxx]

17 hours ago, kibuc said:

That doesn't scare me as much as it perhaps should, because a lot of it is already possible and, in fact, going on. My bank knows all my spending habits (or so it thinks :P) and adjusts my score accordingly, which directly affects services available to me, like getting a new mobile contract or anything on finance. It has power to impose limits on how I use money in my account. It can and will share details with authorities if anything gets flagged. And the money there is not even legally mine - it belongs to the bank, and I'm only a creditor.

I reckon one of the biggest benefit CBs see is the ability to push stimulus directly to people's account.

Difference is @kibuc if you are wise you spread your money across several providers. That way when one suspends your account for `security` reasons you can a) continue to pay your bills, and b) when things are straightened out you can remind them who the customer is by reducing your balance to £1....

...with an electronic £ the government can `flick the switch` on your account overnight and you can go from a `Prince to a pauper`...and for those who think "they wouldn't be able to get away with it", reflect on the actions+reality of the last year and the `new normal`.

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, janch said:

Yes.  Most of Rishi's mates and fellow Tories are probably rather concerned about their CRE investments.  Goodness knows what will happen to Canary Wharf and all the City offices if companies are all downsizing their office space.

 

They will be converted to £1m flats and sold off to SE Asians...oh wait a minute we may have a problem there?!

[DoINeedOne]

13 hours ago, Errol said:

It isn't going to ever go back to what was the old normal. And the old 'normal' wasn't desirable anyway. Anyone who has commuted for years knows that it is hell and a shocking waste of money and time. Nobody wants to go back to that.

The past 12+ months have demonstrated for most London office jobs that people can work from home in many cases even more efficiently than in the office. Nearly all the companies I know have already now moved to at minimum 50% home working. 

So the Government needs to plan for at least 50% less footfall, 50% less use of trains etc etc. That's baked in already. Nobody in their right mind would try to argue that commuting is a sensible or desirable thing to to. 

Pandora's box is open and it's too late. Far too late.

Rishi Sunak has warned that staff could “vote with their feet” and quit their jobs if British companies don’t end working from home and let staff back into offices after lockdown ends.

Saw a few talking about this on twitter laughing why would i quit my job because traveling into London is a nightmare i like working from home 

I'm saving money it cost me £6,000 a year for a season ticket to travel to work which is just over an hours drive

 

Also a family member works in London her experience at first she struggled and asked me how do you work from home, there's lots of distractions make a work area add music take regular breaks more than you would at the office its just your not sitting there gossiping with the girl on the desk next to you no more

3 weeks in she loves it

- Goes to London 1 day a week as a break and for some meetings

- Getting plenty of work done

- The hour + it took her in traveling just into work she now spends doing yoga

- She goes for a walk mid day

- Saved a small fortune

 

You can still support small businesses just ones more local to you coffee, lunch etc...

Would i ever have an office yes but local that i could walk too

[DoINeedOne]

Another thing about working from home i see alot companies wanting to track there workers online

Some jobs require people being at XYZ and working with others to get stuff done by a set time 

But most jobs that can be done from home fucking hell leave them alone to get on with shit as long as its done in time who cares if they are working in the evening, taking regular breaks, or going for a dog walk at 10:45

People wanna control and micro manage shit all the time leave them to it and the good workers will be productive, happy and feel in control 

Whilst the shit ones will be lazy and make lots of excuses

Even in construction you used to see the Forman site manager trying to control everything frustrating the workers tell them what you want leave them alone get the materials they required and in time you weed out the wankers and will have a amazing team you can trust and leave to it

But managers and pen pushers need to act like they're important and required when most of the time there just useless 

//End Rant

[jamtomorrow]

31 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

tell them what you want leave them alone get the materials they required and in time you weed out the wankers and will have a amazing team you can trust and leave to it

Best companies I've worked for are run along these lines. The worst ones carry the wankers for years, either not realising or thinking they can change them.

[JimmyTheBruce]

Morning.  Long time lurker breaking cover to express my thanks to all the regular contributors.  I  came over from TOS specifically to follow this thread, and have been feeling increasingly guilty about benefitting from the collective wisdom without ever contributing.

My problem is that, in stark contrast to the experience and knowledge of a lot of you, I have little to offer other than my gratitude.  So thank you all for continuing to make a place on the internet that is welcoming to all, massively informative and, unlike any other I have experienced, appears to have been able to operate for multiple years without any notable bust ups or angry exchanges.  Truly refreshing.

My token contribution, which I recognise is a poor return for everything I have learned here, is to suggest a look at Vale.  They fit the commodities theme, align with the recent move to looking at opportunities in South America and, if you can get past the incredibly woke content about "women in mining" on their website, seem to have good financials, relatively low debt, and a good dividend.  I've dipped a (little) toe in the water, so I'm sure someone will now let me know that they're about to do an Enron.....

Thanks again to everyone.  Having popped my cherry I shall endeavour to contribute whatever I can in future.

[Noallegiance]

13 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Morning.  Long time lurker breaking cover to express my thanks to all the regular contributors.  I  came over from TOS specifically to follow this thread, and have been feeling increasingly guilty about benefitting from the collective wisdom without ever contributing.

My problem is that, in stark contrast to the experience and knowledge of a lot of you, I have little to offer other than my gratitude.  So thank you all for continuing to make a place on the internet that is welcoming to all, massively informative and, unlike any other I have experienced, appears to have been able to operate for multiple years without any notable bust ups or angry exchanges.  Truly refreshing.

My token contribution, which I recognise is a poor return for everything I have learned here, is to suggest a look at Vale.  They fit the commodities theme, align with the recent move to looking at opportunities in South America and, if you can get past the incredibly woke content about "women in mining" on their website, seem to have good financials, relatively low debt, and a good dividend.  I've dipped a (little) toe in the water, so I'm sure someone will now let me know that they're about to do an Enron.....

Thanks again to everyone.  Having popped my cherry I shall endeavour to contribute whatever I can in future.

Welcome JTB.

You're absolutely correct. This place is special.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

My problem is that, in stark contrast to the experience and knowledge of a lot of you, I have little to offer other than my gratitude.

Not possible!  Not if you live a life.  One thing that's great about this place is we have people from a wide array of real life backgrounds working to a common theme, each with a real life perspective and experience to contribute.  This is more than just about numbers and technicalities.  To me, this thread is first and foremost about context.  That diversity makes us stronger.  So a hearty welcome.

PS: "Diversity" and a "common purpose".  OMG, I missed "build back better"!

[JimmyTheBruce]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Not possible!  Not if you live a life.

Like many on here I work in IT.  There's legitimate debate as to whether that constitutes a life.  There's also a certain group of public school types who have been conspiring of late to prevent me even having the freedom to enjoy that lowly existence.....

Thanks for the welcome Harley.  Keep up the good work!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Best companies I've worked for are run along these lines. The worst ones carry the wankers for years, either not realising or thinking they can change them.

This was my eventual(!) management style, to empower, coach and set clear but high expectations.  It delighted some and scared others, although those sometimes ended up reversed!  I guess we're seeing this now in the biggest game of musical chairs for a while.  To embrace or retreat, for good or bad.  No, it'll never go back to the way it was.  But yes, the risk of outsourcing is high for some as is AI, 3D printing, etc for the others.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Having popped my cherry I shall endeavour to contribute whatever I can in future.

Ah, a new sub thread:  "how I lost my financial virginity"!  Mine was in a hotel room the night of the 2000 crash, getting it off (badly) with my portfolio!