Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Popuplights]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Just gotta say.

Kitchen Aid food processer.

Best bit of kit in the world if you're gonna start getting serious about cooking. The add-on attachments such as the sausage maker, meat mincer, pasta rollers, ice cream makers, grain milling, etc, etc, etc.

Lifetime guarantee, not cheap but the dogs bollox.

Good tip.

Although in true DOSBODS style, the Kenwood chef was free, came from a school that was shutting it's home economics room!!

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Popuplights said:

Good tip.

Although in true DOSBODS style, the Kenwood chef was free, came from a school that was shutting it's home economics room!!

I often make my own pasta with the Kitchen Aid. 80grams 00 flour to 1 egg per person. The pasta roller attachments make it easy, you will never have tasted such nice pasta.

I made ravioli from scratch once. Took me four hours, everyone's plates empty, 5 minutes after serving.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Fair to say that the SE has a much higher proportion of WFH compatible jobs? Again, further supports the shift of house price balance back towards areas of necessary physical presence for employment, which tends to be the cheaper areas of the UK.

I predicted this back in April. 

 

Thousands of companies realising "why the f do we need an office?". 

[Cosmic]

29 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I predicted this back in April. 

 

Thousands of companies realising "why the f do we need an office?". 

Because the customer service levels drop off a fucking cliff with everyone working at home, is my experience. Getting things done has been so much harder this last year.

[Harley]

46 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I predicted this back in April. 

 

Thousands of companies realising "why the f do we need an office?". 

Looks like I wouldn't want to be Pizza Huts landlord either!  Just had a nice pizza for lunch, made by my partner.  She needs that Kitchen Maid though, if we can find one!

[dnb24]

I think it’s always useful to look back upon history- this paper from 2009 does just that and I think we can draw a few parallels from it today- “this time it’s different”. I am not a fan of “regulation with teeth” but I think the aspect of hyperinflation is worth noting- ie those civilisations with an established institutions tend not to develop hyperinflation- so from a macro point of view- this tempers the inflation expectations for the USA and maybe UK by end of decade (ie won’t go into hyperinflation). Parts of Europe may be a different kettle of fish.

https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-reinhart-e.pdf

[Sasquatch]

Just popped into our local garden machinery dealer. Major issues with the supply chain. Suppliers in Europe/USA are unable or not willing to provide guaranteed delivery dates. The rising covid rates in eastern europe probably not going to help things. He also talked about the cost of a container from China shooting up from usual $3000 to $15000 

He's got a list a mile long of people wanting new kit.

[AWW]

Some people get more done while working from home, some about the same, but the vast majority do less. Myself included. Just too many distractions, especially if you don't have a spare room to escape to, which many in London don't.

This is simply a management problem and will be sorted out eventually. Companies just need to start valuing output, not simply being present. This requires a big overhaul of pay structures. As things stand, you can be twice as productive as someone else on your team, and get paid maybe 10-20% more than them.

Those given to presenteeism don't even need to appear productive when working from home - they think they can just get away with moving the mouse every nine minutes to keep their status alive. They are in for a shock.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Just popped into our local garden machinery dealer. Major issues with the supply chain. Suppliers in Europe/USA are unable or not willing to provide guaranteed delivery dates. The rising covid rates in eastern europe probably not going to help things. He also talked about the cost of a container from China shooting up from usual $3000 to $15000 

He's got a list a mile long of people wanting new kit.

Im glad i closed my business when i did and invested the money in Harmony Gold etc .The price of a container is nuts,plus you have VAT on top.Shipping small items will be ok still,but anything say TV sized box will see the unit price shoot up.I actually closed my business based on my roadmap and im very pleased i did.Inflation is going to jump hard and we are positioned to leverage it,though as usual the market is waking up before the event and we have already made fantastic profits.

Im scouring facebook marketplace every day for anything i need.Iv even got spares of most things now,spare lawn mower etc 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I predicted this back in April. 

 

Thousands of companies realising "why the f do we need an office?". 

Soon they'll be realising what the fuck do i want to pay people tens of thousands of pounds to sit on the internet most the day.

Then it'll be why should i pay the ones who do some work tens of thousands of pounds a year, when i can get someone in East Europe or India to do it for the fraction of that.

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Soon they'll be realising what the fuck do i want to pay people tens of thousands of pounds to sit on the internet most the day.

Then it'll be why should i pay the ones who do some work tens of thousands of pounds a year, when i can get someone in East Europe or India to do it for the fraction of that.

The companies who go back to office working will outperform the others I believe.

I think this working from home is just newsworthy at present. All the companies I have dealt with this past year have been rubbish, especially HMRC.

I am out working again, self-employed tradesman. Seems to be a bunch of people happy to sit at home wanting government hand outs and another lot who have decided just to get on with it.

[Craig]

42 minutes ago, AWW said:

Some people get more done while working from home, some about the same, but the vast majority do less. Myself included. Just too many distractions, especially if you don't have a spare room to escape to, which many in London don't.

This is simply a management problem and will be sorted out eventually. Companies just need to start valuing output, not simply being present. This requires a big overhaul of pay structures. As things stand, you can be twice as productive as someone else on your team, and get paid maybe 10-20% more than them.

Those given to presenteeism don't even need to appear productive when working from home - they think they can just get away with moving the mouse every nine minutes to keep their status alive. They are in for a shock.

Have touched on this previously. Blockchain technology now exists to allow people to be paid by the hour, by the minute, by the box, pallet, whatever, rather than the ludicrous situation of a weekly/monthly payroll having to be run through the system. Pretty much everyone will end up being part of the gig economy, whether they like it or not.

 

Which is fine if you're productive and useful. Not so good for the feckless and incompetent.

[ThoughtCriminal]

53 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Just popped into our local garden machinery dealer. Major issues with the supply chain. Suppliers in Europe/USA are unable or not willing to provide guaranteed delivery dates. The rising covid rates in eastern europe probably not going to help things. He also talked about the cost of a container from China shooting up from usual $3000 to $15000 

He's got a list a mile long of people wanting new kit.

I've got a little side business going repairing and selling Cat S and N vehicles from insurance companies, and we're finding a LOT of difficulty getting parts from US and Asia. 

 

There's obviously big problems with supply chains. 

 

If only someone on here had predicted this.......... 🤔😂

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Just popped into our local garden machinery dealer. Major issues with the supply chain. Suppliers in Europe/USA are unable or not willing to provide guaranteed delivery dates. The rising covid rates in eastern europe probably not going to help things. He also talked about the cost of a container from China shooting up from usual $3000 to $15000 

He's got a list a mile long of people wanting new kit.

I've heard similar. Why though? What's prompted such a big hike in container rates? Anybody know?

[Heart's Ease]

Another supply/demand anecdote - ordered a new greenhouse today. 22 weeks delivery slot for basic aluminium, 30 weeks if you want it powder coated. That's October 15th for the latter. We'll be back in autumn lockdown!

The worn out polytunnel will have to do another summer.  

[AWW]

On 15/03/2021 at 10:54, DurhamBorn said:

Im thinking Telefonica Brazil,TIMB,CIG and ELP for starters.Think il set ladders starting 5% down from here.Should add they are all ADRs in the US.

These are definitely ones to ladder into. Bit of a bounce today but none of them look like they're at a good entry point on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. Should get a decent pullback in the next month or so.

[Bobthebuilder]

Hi @Cattle Prod

Ask me about domestic Gas boilers and I can help. Ground works? havent got a clue. One for @HarleyI think.

[moneyscam]

A great discussion between George Gammon and Prof. Steve Keen especially for those who don't understand the fundamentals of money, its creation and the plumbing of the financial economy / real economy. Doesn't really make any predictions on the macro theme of this thread but is useful for educational purposes.

 

[nirvana]

@Cattle Proddrainage! when it pisses it down make sure the water drains away quickly and doesn't pile up behind your structure....

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

These are definitely ones to ladder into. Bit of a bounce today but none of them look like they're at a good entry point on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. Should get a decent pullback in the next month or so.

I bought some Telefonica Brazil a few days ago,but have ladders set in them and the rest.Im trying to work through a few more.Id be happy with around 5 if i can.

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod if you search wall counterfort in google and look at the photos you will see an easy solution.Dig a small trench along the front of the wall and concrete then place counterforts,probably make your own from timber,railway sleepers if you could get some and bolt into concrete as it sets ,im lazy 

 

 

[Errol]

[Tingles]

17 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks, I'll look into that. I think the wall is strong enough, I'm more concerned about rot. How long does it take those treated sleepers to rot in reality, they say 15-20 years, but maybe not if stuck in the ground. I might just add a couple of oak ones.

Edit 

Sorry for the thread derail, I'm sure there is a better thread for this

I would estimate that with the bitumen painting the sleepers should be good for at least 15-20 even stuck in the ground.  When we replace four rail fencing we use tanalised posts with the below ground length double dipped in (proper) creosote.  The oldest sections are over 11 years old with all posts rock solid and without rot.  Also, I think the gradient and the described soil composition will aid drainage further increasing the timber life.  I understand that in hindsight the posts should have been oak but do not underestimate the benefit of adding the bitumen coat and the actual size of the timber.  But if it were me and I were in your situation I would add a few bitumen painted oak posts, just to be sure despite it being potential overkill.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting that US petrol demand is back to normal already. 

 

Even more interesting is that their imports of it are apparently through the roof. 

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Nope everyone needs to experience them. I’ve seen the perfectly shitty London suburbs be taken over by overpriced pop ups, wanky coffee shops and artisan bakers. I’m glad they’ve buggered off. Cornwall can have them, I’m sure it has a Waitrose to herd them into containment.

They belong in the Home Counties anyway. My favourite quote once was on the train upon entering London by a very well spoken young girl with her friends saying ‘Isn’t that cute all the houses are joined together!’

."...and all those metal grills over the windows, how very Gothic!"