Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, janch said:

I read this today too and I see @DurhamBornis ahead of the game with the talk of investing in Brazil:

Would something along these lines be a good idea?

looks like 25% financial sector in that ETF, banks etc, do you really want that much in the etf

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just in the oil sector.

OK so to get my head round what the future may hold from here.

US 10 year goes nearer 2%, FED doesnt want this, so prints more money to buy this debt, then brings 10 year down to whatever it goes to for a time.

As they've printed more money, its party time on Wall Street so stocks go up, and as they're debasing their currency so does Gold and Silver .... and we're almost at this stage now.

But sooner or later US 10 year rises again and the FED cant do too much about it so raises interest rates, then the party on Wall Street ends as they realise the FED isn't/can't give them any more free money thus this is BK time .... which is when the party on DOSBODS begins as we've all "loads a money" to buy into the BK.

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Is that why we have decided to cut the foreign aid budget? Ie We have such a useless lot in power these days, they can't even spend their full yearly allowance for 'bribing corrupt regimes' properly!

No, they prefer to `cosy up` to nations with terrible human rights issues for the sake of a trade deal....whilst espousing how democratically correct they are at the same time of course!

[Hardhat]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

which is when the party on DOSBODS begins as we've all "loads a money" to buy into the BK.

The hard part of that scenario is timing profit taking before the BK!

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

No, they prefer to `cosy up` to nations with terrible human rights issues for the sake of a trade deal....whilst espousing how democratically correct they are at the same time of course!

So long as the bombing raids on unarmed impoverished people are LGBTQ compliant, i can't really see a problem.

2 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

The hard part of that scenario is timing profit taking before the BK!

But is that the scenario being predicted on here?

I was clear on how things were meant to go last year, just now its a tad confusing.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

I just could never feel comfortable with a website using "LSE" as its name, even if perfectly justified.

I thought all men liked watching such sites?! :-)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The theme of this thread is that rising inflation and rates are very very good for many companies.

Take BT.

They own a massive network,half paid for,the other half already fixed debt over 20 years at very low rates.

Competitor comes along and wants to expand into that market.They have two choices,debt or equity.If interest rates have increased it costs them more to borrow and built a network.That means they have to charge more and means they cant compete.So at the same time as as new entrants cant enter the market they also get to put their prices up with inflation or more.

That is why markets miss-priced the areas we were all buying.They were looking backwards to a dis-inflation.So right at the end of that cycle,just before the CBs and governments would be forced to act,the markets threw the towel in on the sectors.

A good part of the profits are now gone and in many areas its a case of slicing those profits off and looking the the roadmap to see if there are other areas as the cycle develops,and also ready to deploy if a big kahuna hits.

 

Can I just say how impressed I am @DB with these two successive posts, you go from being Fanny Craddock one moment in the first post, and then immediately switch to being Warren Buffett in the second....that takes real skill! :-) :-) :-)

[Innkeeper]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im so greedy you wouldnt believe,,but the Ferrari oven is the best thing iv ever bought.That extra 100c makes all the difference.That Create one looks very similar though and i like the fact you can see in with the lid down.I bought 4 pizza trays that fit inside and i make the pizzas on them so i can fire one in after another.What i do though is heat to 2.5 on the dial until the light goes out,then put first pizza in ant turn to 3,that means top and bottom elements are on,then when i take first one out i leave the lid up for around 30 seconds with the next pizza on its tray in the oven so the bottom is heating up for 30 seconds before putting lid down.Iv found repeating that means it never quite reaches top temp and knocks off so you can do 4 pizzas one after the other.

The only problem i have is my kids are always arranging to come around on Friday nights etc and saying oh will you make pizzas .

Iv actually been learning chinese cooking the last few weeks,you need to visit a chinese supermarket etc for the right soy sauces,noodles etc,but im making takeaway standard now for around £1.50 a head on most meals.

I had two agencies ring me today with job offers,i turned them both down.Told them the wages were minimum 50% short.I enjoy telling them that now.You can tell by their voices they are starting to struggle to get decent people.

For soy sauce it’s hard to beat Kikkoman.  Unusual in that it’s a big brand but it’s also very good and readily available.  It’s massive in Japan and I imagine they consume loads of it with all their sushi 🍣 

[Barnsey]

Like I keep saying, housing market 'creativity' has only just begun...

 

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Fanny Buffett 

That's got to be a good one for a trading term.

[No One]

4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Like I keep saying, housing market 'creativity' has only just begun...

 

what, the fuck

assume 800pcm, compound 2% over 25 years

[No One]

		1.02
		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	sum
pcm	700	714	728.28	742.8456	757.7025	772.8566	788.3137	804.08	820.1616	836.5648	853.2961	870.362	887.7693	905.5246	923.6351	942.1078	960.95	980.169	999.7724	1019.768	1040.163	1060.966	1082.186	1103.829	1125.906	1148.424
	800	816	832.32	848.9664	865.9457	883.2646	900.9299	918.9485	937.3275	956.0741	975.1955	994.6994	1014.593	1034.885	1055.583	1076.695	1098.229	1120.193	1142.597	1165.449	1188.758	1212.533	1236.784	1261.519	1286.75	1312.485
	900	918	936.36	955.0872	974.1889	993.6727	1013.546	1033.817	1054.493	1075.583	1097.095	1119.037	1141.418	1164.246	1187.531	1211.282	1235.507	1260.217	1285.422	1311.13	1337.353	1364.1	1391.382	1419.209	1447.594	1476.545
	1000	1020	1040.4	1061.208	1082.432	1104.081	1126.162	1148.686	1171.659	1195.093	1218.994	1243.374	1268.242	1293.607	1319.479	1345.868	1372.786	1400.241	1428.246	1456.811	1485.947	1515.666	1545.98	1576.899	1608.437	1640.606
pa	8400	8568	8739.36	8914.147	9092.43	9274.279	9459.764	9648.96	9841.939	10038.78	10239.55	10444.34	10653.23	10866.3	11083.62	11305.29	11531.4	11762.03	11997.27	12237.21	12481.96	12731.6	12986.23	13245.95	13510.87	13781.09	274435.608
	9600	9792	9987.84	10187.6	10391.35	10599.18	10811.16	11027.38	11247.93	11472.89	11702.35	11936.39	12175.12	12418.62	12667	12920.34	13178.74	13442.32	13711.16	13985.39	14265.1	14550.4	14841.4	15138.23	15441	15749.82	313640.695
	10800	11016	11236.32	11461.05	11690.27	11924.07	12162.55	12405.81	12653.92	12907	13165.14	13428.44	13697.01	13970.95	14250.37	14535.38	14826.09	15122.61	15425.06	15733.56	16048.23	16369.2	16696.58	17030.51	17371.12	17718.54	352845.782
	12000	12240	12484.8	12734.5	12989.19	13248.97	13513.95	13784.23	14059.91	14341.11	14627.93	14920.49	15218.9	15523.28	15833.75	16150.42	16473.43	16802.9	17138.95	17481.73	17831.37	18188	18551.76	18922.79	19301.25	19687.27	392050.869

[No One]

results

		sum
pcm	700	
	800	
	900	
	1000	
		
pa	8400	274435.608
	9600	313640.6949
	10800	352845.7818
	12000	392050.8686

so assuming rent between £700 and £1000 pcm you'd pay between 1/4 million to 2/5ths of a million. I want to drive this tosser over with a JCB

[No One]

I am beyond livid. 

Those 10 year treasuries can't rise fast enough IMHO.

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, No One said:

I am beyond livid. 

Those 10 year treasuries can't rise fast enough IMHO.

Yeah it's about time these cunts fucked off.

This sort of thing just takes advantage of people that can't do maths, especially when intentionally repeatedly distracted by £1. Which is a lot of people.

Shameful.

[Hancock]

49 minutes ago, No One said:

what, the fuck

assume 800pcm, compound 2% over 25 years

Depends what wage inflation is over this timeframe, one hell of a gamble though when you can just get a 15 year fix at 2.5%

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.....

Iv actually been learning chinese cooking the last few weeks,you need to visit a chinese supermarket etc for the right soy sauces,noodles etc,but im making takeaway standard now for around £1.50 a head on most meals.

 

 

Well I'm ya 'go-to-guy' in regards to ... Chinese cooking!

 

(YES @leonardratso laughing at the back now! )

 

Anyway... I'll tell ya why?

 

During many UK winter years i spent a LOT of time in SE-Asia, and discovered a lot of secrets to their way of cooking, i used to get chatting to the cook and pick their brains some even let in into the back of the kitchen showing off their cooking skills!

 

If you guys tasted my secret dipping sauce you'd be coming in ya panties i kid you not! I've even approached a few UK companies to license the recipe, which I may try again in the future so I'll have to keep that one a secret!

 

OK, 1st up about soup making, from scratch cook a bone in the pot! your tip MSG, yeah great flavour enhancer, but I've run out of the packet that i bought over from the Far-East 2 years ago that only cost 29p over there!  So instead I've been using a splash of 'maggi seasoning sauce' you can get it from most supermarkets for a £1.00 a bottle ...and this stuff does have MSG in it.

 

 

 

 

 

My TOP tip for Chinese cooking:

 

Splash of Thai fish sauce AND coconut palm sugar - you can buy coconut palm sugar in the UK but it's EXPENSIVE, again I'm low on my 1 Kilo supply that cost me about 69p from the Far-East :-) however i used molasses and it's just as good.

 

Incidentally you could just use plain 'ol sugar but the way i do it ...it's the little touches that make ALL the difference also its healthier and it doesn't cost that much extra.

 

WARNING: ONLY use Tiparos Thai fish sauce - trust me the others in the UK are crap!

 

Most of my Oriental meals cost no more than a quid, if i get a lot of YRS reductions ...well you can guess what each meal would cost!

 

 

 

 

[Lightscribe]

19 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

If you guys tasted my secret dipping sauce you'd be coming in ya panties i kid you not! I've even approached a few UK companies to license the recipe, which I may try again in the future so I'll have to keep that one a secret!

Why did I get this picture in my head? 

im sure your fishy sauce is wonderful YRS. 

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Why did I get this picture in my head? 

im sure your fishy sauce is wonderful YRS. 

yikes.

[leonardratso]

where can i get japanese FU from? I saw it on NHK world japan as an alternative to bread - trouble is i love bread, especially the crappy white variety but it makes you awfully fat in industrial quantities so i was wondering if FU could be a viable high protein alternative, but i cant seem to find it anywhere;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_gluten_(food)#/media/File:Japanese_Wheat_gluten_Fu.JPG

[Viceroy]

you guys are making me hungry!

if you wanna jazz up boiled rice, fry a little onion+garlic+chopped Kelp (soften the dried kelp in water for 20mins-Asian shops sell it in packets) before adding the dry rice+water and boiling til cooked.

http://www.whfoods.com/genpage.php?tname=recipe&dbid=144

[JMD]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

My Plan A is to try and time an exit,buy TLT/IBTL and buy back our stocks lower.For me the BK is a deflationary event that will precede the inflationary run up to 2030.With how quick CB's are to print these days and bail out debtors,there's a chance they may stave it off.I doubt that,there's just too many parts of the equation that need bailing out.Particularly EM's if the $ is at the epicentre of the crisis-which imho it will be.

Plan B is to sit tight in what we've bought this last year and maybe hedge with some options activity.If you've been buying the shares talked about in the basement -which I have-particualrly at the prices over this last year,then it's a viable plan.as ever dyodd

Thanks SP, yes I bought my PM's, oil, telecoms, at low prices so personally I will be looking to only trim some profits and park that cash along with my existing cash pile. My portfolio will then be 30% cash waiting to pounce on cheap stocks after BK. Similar to Kibuc's thinking ref junior Silvie's, I may if we get more run up, sell most/all of my silver+gold juniors because these will be viewed as highly speculative and so I think that asset class will be heavily sold during a BK. So I have a rather basic plan and the only risk element will be exiting the juniors, in order to hopefully buy back in cheaper. Oh and sitting in cash/suffering opportunity costs? However I am very grateful to this thread for the valuable discussions and info that have allowed me to buy most of my portfolio at low prices, this has meant that I don't need to take big risks (ie hopefully I have already bought my oil, telecoms at/near their all time lows?).                                                                                                     The difficult bit for me is what to do with my commodity stocks, copper, potash, etc. I bought mine, due to lack of funds, only after they had started their bull run. Commodities are the type of asset that will continue to do well the other side of any BK. But even so I am tempted to sell 50% and look to buy back in when/if cheaper. I'm thinking BK liquidity/forced selling may hit the commodity/mining sector hardest, because investors will favour their income/divi stocks. Do others here have own ideas on which sectors might do better/worst than other sectors during a BK scenario?

[Lightscribe]

https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/recipes/chicken-noodle-soup
 

If I see a reduced chicken in coop or lidl, I’ll usually either portion it up and freeze or cook it that day and use the chicken for other things. I then throw the carcass in the slow cooker with an onion, carrot and bay leaf with a cap full of apple cider vinegar to leach out the bones. Free range/organic chickens (reduced of course) are usually best and the stock becomes a jelly overnight in the fridge. 

I then will freeze the stock after I’ve used a bit with the left over chicken with some chillies, ginger, Chinese greens and bean sprouts (packets of these are always reduced in coop so I freeze them) soy sauce (and a tiny bit of fish sauce - this can really be overdone easily) to make the above chicken broth noodle soup. It’s as good as what you’ll find in Wagamama.

I find the best soy sauce is either Kikkoman or Pearl River. As we get through quite a bit of the stuff we get the big bottles from the Chinese cash and carry outlets.

[geordie_lurch]

This is a great article about the state of the EU's finances inc the numbers involved which are staggering send how their banking system is not far from collapse

"The EU is a tail-end Charlie in this global environment, which is why it could not afford to mess up its emergence from pandemic lockdowns. And because the financing of it all falls on the ECB’s shoulders, that is where the EU’s crisis is sure to emerge. It will take out the banking system for sure; on slender equity bases, it will not take much of a rise in bond yields to wipe them out. And then all that ropey collateral in the repo system will be exposed for what it’s worth. Which is mostly nothing."

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-ecb-s-financial-suttee

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

This is a great article about the state of the EU's finances inc the numbers involved which are staggering send how their banking system is not far from collapse

nah bollox, up the yuro! 

he doesn't like shitcoins either https://thedailycoin.org/2021/03/05/alasdair-macleod-bitcoin-will-die-along-with-fiat-currencies-video/

Dear God, please give us our 'daily coin' Amen

Dsiclaimer: I've had my daily coffee and nuts so I'm a but hyper at the mo 

Also interesting that Coinbase Pro doesn't deal in £sss it's €ssss........the experiment is not quite dead yet