Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Calcutta]

TLDR: BP still cheap at 3.15, get stuck in Calcutta. 

[Loki]

43 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Has anyone every sat back and said "why is all about growth anyway? It's a finite world, why is everything grow this, grow that."

Unrelenting growth isn't even 'healthy', in a body it can mean cancer.

[harp]

40 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

TLDR: BP still cheap at 3.15, get stuck in Calcutta. 

Ah man. I’ve top sliced BP and other oil shares Monday. Hoping for a dip to buy.  

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I tend to think of it the other way around. Firstly, population projections are nonsense and have always been wrong, no one has any idea what the world will be like in 2100. Second, population over the last 200 years correlates very closely with oil consumption. It's basically free energy, I've written here before that having access to petroleum at $60 a barrel is equivalent to having a bunch of stored manual labour at rates cheaper than slaves were to feed. It's the only thing that has given us the luxury of supporting a large population on this planet. If nuclear fusion comes along, different story, but there is nothing else with this energy density around.

So yes, Africa still needs to catch up, but the progression out of poverty in the last decades has been astonishing. And when people come out of poverty, they stop having lots of babies. Children are insurance, welfare and labour in poor countries. Just look at Ireland, there were over ten children in each of my grandparents families time, when there was no social welfare and widespread poverty. 4 or 5 in my parents time, and a whole bunch with one or none in my generation. My son has three first cousins, I have about 25. I think the population will naturally decline before political tensions spill over, though of course there will be resource wars along the way.

An interesting phenomenon is how pregnancy rates predict recessions. People in aggregate know when its a good time to have babies (lots of cheap oil, peace, growth), and when it's not. I think as pressures come off the planet as population naturally peaks, a lot of the craziness we see around us goes away, like all the green/climate stuff. Emissions will naturally decline. All the tech developed during this unusual 200 year explosion of population and innovation will remain (as long as they don't burn it down like the library of Alexandria. I suppose information is more distributed now). So our children, or maybe childrens children as you say  could possilby have a world with much of the good things we've invented, without the pressure of growth. I agree we will have major dislocations along the way, and I have a lot to prepare my son for.

Has anyone every sat back and said "why is all about growth anyway? It's a finite world, why is everything grow this, grow that." If our population is no longer growing, we don't need to grow at all costs. Of course it's the fiat monetary system driving it, you, your pension, your wages, your company all have to keep growing without ever catching up as the interest on the debt that our money is based on is not created with it. But that'll change.

Great post @Cattle Prod

Agree with most of it. Perhaps a little less confident with tech going forward. On balance, I think it might prove to be a negative rather than positive influence on the human race. It's going to be a very bumpy road. I just hope we can hang on whilst careering along it.

Regarding the energy density of oil. I just don't think most people get it. I do. It's absolutely obvious when you stand in front of a large fallen tree with a chainsaw. Several hours later and surrounded by a huge pile of burnable logs you realise how much longer it would take with an old fashioned two person saw. 

[leonardratso]

and 2 whole arms.

[nirvana]

well done Jay, you are their bitch! Buy everything in shite, I mean in sight! GEniune mistake, must be the weather! 

 

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

It's absolutely obvious when you stand in front of a large fallen tree with a chainsaw. Several hours later and surrounded by a huge pile of burnable logs you realise how much longer it would take with an old fashioned two person saw. 

I had that EXACT same thought/observation a couple of months back!

That and diesel-powered woodchippers...they even grab and pull branches effortlessly compared to me manhandling them into the funnel...never mind pulverising the thing like it's nothing

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Perhaps a little less confident with tech going forward. On balance, I think it might prove to be a negative rather than positive influence on the human race.

I understand that point of view.  It's not tech so much, it's the who gets to it first (First mover advantage) and who makes the rules, as ever.  I think there is a happy medium, but as we never seem to get it I totally understand why some people are  'Luddites'.

Computers make all the financial fuckery possible, but have also given us a lot.  It is what it is.

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, nirvana said:

well done Jay, you are their bitch! Buy everything in shite, I mean in sight! GEniune mistake, must be the weather! 

 

 Look at the fucken state of the DXY, it's like coyote off a cliff

[ThoughtCriminal]

Things are getting interesting........ 

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Exactly. Excellent post there CP

So you think Africans sit there studying oil prices and decided not to have more kids.the figures for population growth suggest otherwise.if births decrease it will be to the adults wanting jam today ie a better standard of living for themselves and the fewer kids they have .so I’d argue it’s educational or just common sense

[Agent ZigZag]

5 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

So you think Africans sit there studying oil prices and decided not to have more kids.the figures for population growth suggest otherwise.if births decrease it will be to the adults wanting jam today ie a better standard of living for themselves and the fewer kids they have .so I’d argue it’s educational or just common sense

or the west embracing socialism?

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

or the west embracing socialism?

West has always embraced socialism in our lifetimes, just got to see how much the rich demanded it after the 2007 crash.

[Agent ZigZag]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

West has always embraced socialism in our lifetimes, just got to see how much the rich demanded it after the 2007 crash.

Correct and it is now supercharged. In part I guess it is where we are at with respect to this thread. The crux of a major inflection point. 

[Loki]

The world population graph correlates with world debt, as well as oil use.

It's probably nothing to worry about though. 

[Agent ZigZag]

As contrarians we in the west should all be breeding like rabbits. Safety and security in numbers as a strong family pack/unit looking out for each other for hard times ahead  Anyway we are digressing here a bit.

[King Penda]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

No, they will have less kids when they are better off. It's not common sense to have less kids when you need them to look after you. The price of oil is dirt cheap, and has been, along with capitalisms application of it, the single biggest factor in enabling people rise out of poverty. You can't do much work to help your family when you have to walk 2 hours each way to get some fucking water.

Like I said education only a thick fuck would walk 2 miles each way for water  .and let cows shit in your drinking water .money helps them have less children and the internet is opening up education and networking one such group were the Wedgwood and Darwin’s of those with ideas ie not dissimilar to how we use the internet on a whole range of subjects like don’t let cows shit in your drinking water it’s not good for you.you could of course counter with cheap fuel drove the industrial revolution ie cheap coal and I would point out the increase in education that created the people that could take advantage of the cheap fuel via innovation 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, stokiescum said:

Like I said education only a thick fuck would walk 2 miles each way for water  .and let cows shit in your drinking water .money helps them have less children and the internet is opening up education on a whole range of subjects like don’t let cows shit in your drinking water it’s not good for you.you could of course counter with cheap fuel drove the industrial revolution ie cheap coal and I would point out the increase in education that created the people that could take advantage of the cheap fuel via innovation 

They couldn't have used the cheap coal without forcing the people off of their land and into the factories.  

(We're back at tech and who makes the rules )

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

As contrarians we in the west should all be breeding like rabbits. Safety and security in numbers as a strong family pack/unit looking out for each other for hard times ahead  Anyway we are digressing here a bit.

We are fucked in the west 

[Hancock]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 You can't do much work to help your family when you have to walk 2 hours each way to get some fucking water.

Does make you wonder what's happened to all the money that's poured into Africa in the last 40 years.

You'd think they'd have managed to come up with the idea of creating reservoirs and a piping system to get it to almost every single house like the rest of the world has managed.

[Loki]

Just now, Hancock said:

Does make you wonder what's happened to all the money that's poured into Africa in the last 40 years.

You'd think they'd have managed to come up with the idea of creating reservoirs and a piping system to get it to almost every single house like the rest of the world has managed.

They sell the brass from irrigation systems for scrap 

[King Penda]

Just now, Loki said:

They couldn't have used the cheap coal without forcing the people off of their land and into the factories.  

(We're back at tech and who makes the rules )

Was the gentrys anyway in the main the industrial revolution accelerated people leaving the country to chase better wages 

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Does make you wonder what's happened to all the money that's poured into Africa in the last 40 years.

You'd think they'd have managed to come up with the idea of creating reservoirs and a piping system to get it to almost every single house like the rest of the world has managed.

Ak47s are very important 

[Loki]

Just now, stokiescum said:

Was the gentrys anyway in the main the industrial revolution accelerated people leaving the country to chase better wages 

200 years later look how it worked out for the generational landowners  They've done just fine.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Does make you wonder what's happened to all the money that's poured into Africa in the last 40 years.

You'd think they'd have managed to come up with the idea of creating reservoirs and a piping system to get it to almost every single house like the rest of the world has managed.

Wars will be over water in Africa sooner or later everyone is dambing the Nile it won’t end well