Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[The Idiocrat]

Guys, how many stocks in your portfolios do you find manageable? I've got about 60 between my SIPP and ISA and am starting to struggle to keep an eye on all of them. I do have a few funds, but mainly individual stocks. What tools do you use? Spreadsheet or specialist software or just the stockbroker's portfolio tools on their website?

[Mooping]

Is it ok to purchase GDXJ from the UK or is it better to purchase something else for Gold miners?

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

You sounds like a lazy cunt, which means you work as hard as everyone else in the country!

you are quite correct there, wasnt always the case, but this lockdown and wfh i came to realize that working hard and putting in the effort doesnt actually work that well, im old and knackered now i dont want to play the game anymore, ive played it enough. Ive been through these takeovers and corporate stupidity/greed before, no one wins except the highest possible management and the vultures. Im gonna play this like an old fiddle and just either walk away with a redundancy or cause as much hassle and cost to them as i can, cos im worth it.

[Noallegiance]

22 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Guys, how many stocks in your portfolios do you find manageable? I've got about 60 between my SIPP and ISA and am starting to struggle to keep an eye on all of them. I do have a few funds, but mainly individual stocks. What tools do you use? Spreadsheet or specialist software or just the stockbroker's portfolio tools on their website?

I'm o Hargreaves Lansdown. Mine is 29 stocks in an SIPP, 7 in an ISA. Every so often I take screenshots of data for reference.

That's plenty for me otherwise my brain gets overload. 

I'm learning from Contrarian Investment Strategies that making it too complex has zero benefit as a long term strategy.

[DurhamBorn]

30 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Guys, how many stocks in your portfolios do you find manageable? I've got about 60 between my SIPP and ISA and am starting to struggle to keep an eye on all of them. I do have a few funds, but mainly individual stocks. What tools do you use? Spreadsheet or specialist software or just the stockbroker's portfolio tools on their website?

I tend to own around 35 to 40 when im fully invested,but i also tend to own around 20% in investment trusts in areas i think cheap,for instance Asia,Brazil etc.I used to use ETFs for that 20% or sometimes a bit more,but dont anymore thanks to the EU protecting me,my investment trusts are only around 6% at the moment though as im adding Brazil now into direct holdings (well ADRs).Iv found over 40 stocks and you gain nothing from extra diversification ,but lose performance by having too many.I did end up with about 50 after the sell off last March,but have sold out of quite a few that provided profits way over what i hoped for,and a few i change my mind on and a couple i took a loss on.

[wherebee]

31 minutes ago, Mooping said:

Is it ok to purchase GDXJ from the UK or is it better to purchase something else for Gold miners?

GDXJ is showing signs of life after a bit of a quiet period.  I sold a chunk at the previous high (luck/preset level, not brains), and have been watching if it shows any movement back up to the 60's.  It's a good indicator of sentiment, in my view.

[Castlevania]

56 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Guys, how many stocks in your portfolios do you find manageable? I've got about 60 between my SIPP and ISA and am starting to struggle to keep an eye on all of them. I do have a few funds, but mainly individual stocks. What tools do you use? Spreadsheet or specialist software or just the stockbroker's portfolio tools on their website?

35. I have a spreadsheet and I use the portfolio tools. What I would say, is try and buy different stocks in your different accounts. I found it way too easy to understate my total exposure to one stock by having the same stock in different accounts e.g. if I have £10k in an ISA; £10k in a SIPP and £5k in a taxable account of the same stock. That’s £25k of exposure, which is probably on the high side, but looking at each account in isolation wouldn’t highlight that.

[The Idiocrat]

@DurhamBorn @Noallegiance @Castlevania thanks for that, I thought I was overdoing it! Think I’ll consolidate a bit.

[wherebee]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

35. I have a spreadsheet and I use the portfolio tools. What I would say, is try and buy different stocks in your different accounts. I found it way too easy to understate my total exposure to one stock by having the same stock in different accounts e.g. if I have £10k in an ISA; £10k in a SIPP and £5k in a taxable account of the same stock. That’s £25k of exposure, which is probably on the high side, but looking at each account in isolation wouldn’t highlight that.

17.  All in one broker account.

I know my weakness -not disciplined enough to manage many more than 20 or so.  I have three buckets in my active portfolio:

Oil/Telco/Potash - long term holds now I have topsliced a bit, will be relying on dividends for income for a goodly while (50%).  Up hugely since the start of the year.

Australian mainstream - Aussie companies which should do well if Australia does well (10%). Up a little bit.

Miners/speculatives - penny stocks plus miners, which will never make me rich on dividends but can turn into massive upsides if they run up.(15%). Example: FFG where I bought at 4 cents and sold half at 17, making a profit and keeping the rest for the next run up. .  Either flat, or up hugely since start of year.

Gamestop - because Ape Hands strong and it's funny.  120 bucks bought, worth 350.

Cash - 25% - ready for buying opps.  All from topslicing the oilies and the speculatives.

I also have a chunk which is a third of the investment portfolio value in an aussie super (pension) which I moved entirely into cash in early March, which will earn 4%.  A BK protection as I can't select anything less specific than 'higher risk', 'foreign' etc in the awful scheme, which means I'd be entirely exposed to any crash in, say, tech.

A scattering of other pensions around the world which I am slowly moving back to Oz and will then use for active investing.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, The Idiocrat said:

Guys, how many stocks in your portfolios do you find manageable? I've got about 60 between my SIPP and ISA and am starting to struggle to keep an eye on all of them. I do have a few funds, but mainly individual stocks. What tools do you use? Spreadsheet or specialist software or just the stockbroker's portfolio tools on their website?

I've got 15.   I only started investing as read this thread, and my position size in each woud be too small if there were any more, (smaller pot).
I'd like at least double that, to spread the risk if any of them has a disaster. 

[Viceroy]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

A scattering of other pensions around the world which I am slowly moving back to Oz and will then use for active investing.

Any chance you're dealing with a 401K (which I will need to at some point)? I've heard they're nearly impossible to move altho i haven't started researching yet...

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I've got 15.   I only started investing as read this thread, and my position size in each woud be too small if there were any more, (smaller pot).
I'd like at least double that, to spread the risk if any of them has a disaster. 

When i started out,and for a long time 15 was the sort of range i had and it served me very well.I think its a decent amount for anyone and a great base.Even if you just buy a new stock each year with the divs and one with savings it soon mounts up.

Iv actually done the process myself again the last few years for my partners ISA.She saves around £700 a month,misses the odd month.So iv pretty much bought her a stock on average every 6 weeks.At first she saw wild swings and some nasty drawdowns,but now she is up to about 14 stocks the portfolio is taking a nice shape.Sometimes i add a stock,sometimes add to one.The divis are flowing nicely now as well.I dont ladder or time or anything.Money goes in and she tells me to buy something.

 

 

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Viceroy said:

Any chance you're dealing with a 401K (which I will need to at some point)? I've heard they're nearly impossible to move altho i haven't started researching yet...

I heard that too.  Yes, I did some work for a US firm many years back and they chucked some money in a 401k for some reason.  I was too young to understand what a ballache that would be.

I think once you are retired it becomes much easier to move.

[Harley]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I said on the thread Harley i thought Shaw was the best play on Canadian telcos.Myself i only have a small holding,actually my lowest sized telco holding.

Bogger, missed that, but snagged those pizza shares thanks!  But there really is a secret list, right?

[Harley]

Good question on the number of stocks in our portfolios.  So a related one: how often do people look at their portfolios?  Do people have the odd random peak, a set time interval, or both? 

Me, I used to do a proper review each weekend to decide what to buy and sell.  Plus the odd peak during the week.  Done bogger all the last few weeks though as too busy and somewhat bored.  Naughty and it will cost but whatever!

[Noallegiance]

Come on Babcock you slacker!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56410532

[Harley]

I run a number of accounts and portfolios for my partner and myself.  Maybe 50+ holdings each across all accounts, mainly individual stocks, plus any trades.  Not that difficult to manage for me.  All in Excel for a consolidated view and structured to be an easy cut and paste from the accounts.  The spreadsheet is more like a database I can slice and dice to analyse multiple ways (eg. sector allocations).  Not too much data held though (eg. not P&L) as I rely on the accounts for that.  I care more about changes in the total value.  Up is good!

[Bricks & Mortar]

Anyone following Gold Ventures on Twitter?    @ The Last Degree  (need to delete the spaces, but if I do, it reposts his whole feed here).    Mentioned on these pages before.  Giving advice and tips on gold & silver stocks.  Has a website as well.  goldventures DOT org.   41K followers on Twitter.

Well, yesterday, they announced they'd sold out of Aurcana, a smaller silver miner.  Stock was down 7.5% on a day when most other silver miners were up, (Endeavour, up 5% for instance.

I'm taking it as an illustration of how massive a whale they are in the market.  Not, by their own investments, but by the collective power of their followers.  I think it illustrates problem, if you were planning to follow an account like that and wait for them to signal the time to sell your silver and gold miners.

 

[wherebee]

Yahoo finance:

"

(Bloomberg) -- The torrent of Iranian oil that’s been gushing into China in recent weeks is crowding out imports from other nations and threatening to complicate efforts by the OPEC+ alliance to tighten supply in the global market.

China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, is currently buying close to 1 million barrels a day of sanctioned crude, condensate and fuel oil from the Persian Gulf nation, according to estimates by traders and analysts. That’s displacing favored grades from countries such as Norway, Angola, and Brazil, traders said, and resulting in an unusually quiet spot market."

 

I remember when the US would go after other countries and companies in those countries which traded with Iran and Cuba and the like.  The waning economic strength of the US really becomes apparent when you read stuff like that.  It also compliments DBs (and others) views on here that there is no huge extra supply in Iran waiting to flood into the West - it's already going to China.

That's good for our long term holdings re profitability of oilies.

By the way, I was working in the garage on a project and listening to some aussie station who had on a climate change 'expert' who was spouting how oil and coal use was in global decline, you couldn't give it away last year, and that the australian oil industry should be closed down.  Insanity.  I may have shouted bad words at the radio once or twice.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Supposed to post a reply to @DurhamBorn's soup ingredient BUT I'm just too EXCITED!

 

AS...I've Just logged into my HL .... Gordon Bennett !

 

Portfolio UP all TIME HIGH now to +39%

 

BUT...BUT...the cherry on the TOP is Endeavour Silver mine is UP 155% Woohoo!

 

I remember DB saying when silver runs this one could go PARABOLIC!

 

AND silver ain't even running YET...it's only ticking over!

 

BIG THANKS to YOU mate!

 

[Eventually Right]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've kept an eye, his strategy is to buy into tiny companies to treat them as options on the silver price without the premium or time decay. They are very, very illiquid and it doesn't take much to move the price. I asked him once (its one guy) was he worried about liquidity when the time came to sell, fudged the answer. The cynic in me says that the reason he's publishing his moves on Twitter and attracting followers is so that he has a pool to offload his illiquid minnows on. It certainly solves the problem. I would bet ten of your shiny new pence that he will be out of the market before he announces it to his followers.

It's definitely an issue if you hold some of the stocks he does-he posted on his site yesterday that he'd dropped aftermath silver, and bought more gogold resources.

Aftermath immediately dropped 10% and gogold, which was already up 8% on the day, finished up nearly 17%.

I believe he truly believes in his thesis, that silver will do very well, and that micro/small cap miners are the best way to play it.  But his large number of followers probably helps him to offload the ones he wants to get rid of right now, before the fabled big run up in silver/gold prices. (for a "sitfolio" he makes a fair amount of changes!)

There is another guy on twitter who tracks his silver portfolio, and the changes, with a spread sheet, which can give a good idea of which ones are on the up, and which ones are on the way out, and therefore he might imminently dump, causing the price to tank when he announces it- GoldenSilver  @LegalNonAlien

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Let the record show that I called it 😎

 

 

[Loki]

Why is it gold coloured? Gold is worthless.

Edit: The drop was more disappointing than CNAs performance. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Supposed to post a reply to @DurhamBorn's soup ingredient BUT I'm just too EXCITED!

 

AS...I've Just logged into my HL .... Gordon Bennett !

 

Portfolio UP all TIME HIGH now to +39%

 

BUT...BUT...the cherry on the TOP is Endeavour Silver mine is UP 155% Woohoo!

 

I remember DB saying when silver runs this one could go PARABOLIC!

 

AND silver ain't even running YET...it's only ticking over!

 

BIG THANKS to YOU mate!

 

Really pleased ,you never moaned on about a few drawdowns as we were positioning  and a prime example to people to let the markets go to where they are going in their own time.As always though we always have to look ahead and try to see through the macro fog.The markets are getting far too excited and im starting to slice off some profits and set ladders over in Brazil  .Thats why i always appreciate Kaplans work because iv been seeing a chance on my currency roadmap that western currencies might flip flop with the next tier and try to think how to position some for that.He put us on to a chance opening up in Brazil.

However the research has to wait as im de-frosting my freezer,i had to leave some 5% steak mince for £1 each,5 of them in Iceland as no room,the ice was taking up 15% of the space and i couldnt sleep thinking about the mince pies i could of made.

[Talking Monkey]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Really pleased ,you never moaned on about a few drawdowns as we were positioning  and a prime example to people to let the markets go to where they are going in their own time.As always though we always have to look ahead and try to see through the macro fog.The markets are getting far too excited and im starting to slice off some profits and set ladders over in Brazil  .Thats why i always appreciate Kaplans work because iv been seeing a chance on my currency roadmap that western currencies might flip flop with the next tier and try to think how to position some for that.He put us on to a chance opening up in Brazil.

However the research has to wait as im de-frosting my freezer,i had to leave some 5% steak mince for £1 each,5 of them in Iceland as no room,the ice was taking up 15% of the space and i couldnt sleep thinking about the mince pies i could of made.

DB if you have time could you elaborate on that point about western currencies might flip flop with the next tier. What does that mean.