Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

The other sector we may want to look at is agri tech, I.e. hydroponics, lab grown meat, meat alternatives, and vertical farms. There is no potash required for some of those technologies.

Agronomics (LON:ANIC) has been mentioned on here before. I will be opening a position on ISA topup day.

 

I think its a sector that is likely to boom during a reflation,and provide some 100 baggers.Im struggling to find a decent way to enter it though.

 

[sarahbell]

On 07/05/2020 at 11:22, Harley said:

Given this messy end of cycle stuff, I'm looking for non-investment things to do with my cash to diversify a bit.  Currently buying (investing in) stuff which will make my life cheaper in the longer run.  I had also looked at my pension forecast and although I had missing years, the lady I spoke to said there was little point paying for more.  But then I thought, suppose they change the rules and your contribution history does matter more in some new way (e.g. UBI)?  OK, may not and who knows about the future state pension but relatively cheap insurance (especially versus bank bail-ins and/or a wealth tax, etc).  Any other diversification ideas?

Just finding somewhere to add this to as I'm not certain it's worthy of a full thread.

I have received mine today and am told I am two years off getting a full state pension. So in the next 15 years I have to pay two more years worth. I think I'll manage that.

It didn't give me a list of years. I was disappointed in that but very happy that it appears I've "paid in" enough.

15 years is a long way off and a lot of governments. 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

2 hours ago, nomadic said:

Let's talk about food. We know that inflation is going to rip at some point and our medium costa coffee will shrink and become more expensive, possibly at the same time.

There hasn't been too much focus on agriculture and food production as an area ripe for reflation over the cycle.

Is there an obvious reason why? Are we all going to be eating insects as the WEF expects? Mr Gates has been buying up huge tracts of arable land in the U.S. Maybe he'll leave the land fallow to starve all the anti-vaxxers?

 

That Mr Gates C*** won't affect my scoff supply, plant ya own OR as i do get some FREE!

 

Have a gander around some farmers plots near YOU...

 

2 minutes from me I nip into a farmer's field and help myself to let-over crops, the farmer allowed me to help myself to rapeseed, AND the snow conditions are a bonus as it keeps the cabbage leaves from wilting, in fact later today as its SUNNY here... I'm going to pick some leafs for my YRS/pork NOODLE cabbage Soup Supper!

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

....

Wouldn't want to face the coming apocalypse with any other bunch of pizza baking, yellow sticker hunting freaks and misfits.

No offence, I include myself in there😂😘

 

Great Post...LOVE IT!

 

[DurhamBorn]

I found this very interesting.We have mentioned on this thread,and actually the thread really exists to try to avoid this situation below that most people will find themselves in.Whats really interesting though is its actually Vanguard warning people here about it.The very people who offer these lifestyle funds,and i admire them for putting it out there.

Whats also critical to mention and the article doesnt is if the funds are invested through an IFA and a platform.That will add between 1.2% to 2% in fees.So lets say they are right  and someones in a 60% bond fund as many/most will be just before and during drawdown,they could see 0.5% nominal returns.If they are doing a 5% drawdown at first their pension will run out in about 16 years if they keep the drawdown at a set money amount.No increases for inflation.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/investors-risk-losing-100k-dogged-demand-dividends/

 

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Just finding somewhere to add this to as I'm not certain it's worthy of a full thread.

I have received mine today and am told I am two years off getting a full state pension. So in the next 15 years I have to pay two more years worth. I think I'll manage that.

It didn't give me a list of years. I was disappointed in that but very happy that it appears I've "paid in" enough.

15 years is a long way off and a lot of governments. 

 

If you can get as many years as you can in,if you have grandkids claim the specified adult childcare credit if you children pay NI at work (you get the credit based on family allowance so only do it if child pays NI on wages to get their credit)

or

If you stop work go self employed and sell one 2nd hand item on ebay and when prompted on tax form if you want to pay class 2 stamp say yes.That gets a years state pension for £160 quid,much cheaper than buying years.

 

[BoSon]

14 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Just finding somewhere to add this to as I'm not certain it's worthy of a full thread.

I have received mine today and am told I am two years off getting a full state pension. So in the next 15 years I have to pay two more years worth. I think I'll manage that.

It didn't give me a list of years. I was disappointed in that but very happy that it appears I've "paid in" enough.

15 years is a long way off and a lot of governments. 

 

Not logged into it recently so it may have changed but the link below gives the breakdown of current state of state pension in terms of qualifying years and forecast. Can use an existing government gateway login if have one for other business/self-employed/self-assessment uses:

http://www.tax.service.gov.uk/checkmystatepension

 

[DurhamBorn]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker add a pinch of this to any savoury dish like that,really brings the flavour out,its what all Chinese takeaways add to their savoury dishes,they all use it,superb in egg fried rice,chow mein etc etc,last ages s well.My partner was wanting far too many chinkie takeaways,but my egg fried rice now is just as good and only costs £1.50 for two people,i simply strip the leftovers from a cooked chicken,(i got a large one reduced in Lidl yesterday for £2.10)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/100g-Lotus-Monosodium-Glutamate-MSG-Flavour-Enhancer-Seasoning/262713589935?ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2649

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

If you stop work go self employed and sell one 2nd hand item on ebay and when prompted on tax form if you want to pay class 2 stamp say yes.That gets a years state pension for £160 quid,much cheaper than buying years.

Thank you for that golden nugget bit of info. Gonna save me a fortune over the next few years.

I bloody love this thread, no end of wonderful finance tips.

Going to have to share a one pot chicken dish that serves 4 as a main meal AND a starter with you soon DB. It will go well on your new recipe list.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thank you for that golden nugget bit of info. Gonna save me a fortune over the next few years.

I bloody love this thread, no end of wonderful finance tips.

Going to have to share a one pot chicken dish that serves 4 as a main meal AND a starter with you soon DB. It will go well on your new recipe list.

HMRC will tell you yout not self employed at some point and boot you off self access but cheapest way to get NI credits if you cant claim the grandparent childcare ones.Im claiming those from this year,im only 2 years short,but will keep claiming in case they increase years to 40,or allow earlier pension for those with more years.You just never know,and they are free,one form every october.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I was (and still am) highly sceptical of Bitcoin etc, but I think I finally understand what some of the more thoughtful crypto advocates are getting at: If you think Bitcoin is bullshit then wait until you find out about QE and fractional reserve banking.

But we all knew that....and as they said in the BS "Dog shit is dog shit, the only difference is the faecal count" :-)

[sarahbell]

1 hour ago, BoSon said:

Not logged into it recently so it may have changed but the link below gives the breakdown of current state of state pension in terms of qualifying years and forecast. Can use an existing government gateway login if have one for other business/self-employed/self-assessment uses:

http://www.tax.service.gov.uk/checkmystatepension

 

I couldn't be arsed trying to log in. I rang them up and they sent something out. If there was a shortage I might have bothered to find out when. 
I am fairly sure I have the log in details from about 14 years ago maybe. 

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

yes, I think you are right.  

I think in my lifetime we are going to see a 'great reset' in one very very important way - real things such as a house you own outright, or a gold coin you hold, or a bitcoin wallet you control, will become worth a million times more than a 'pension' in a ledger somewhere.

Do you include property in that list?...I think that may make you a target for further `abuse` and/or you may need to have it spread across several countries.

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

But we all knew that....and as they said in the BS "Dog shit is dog shit, the only difference is the faecal count" :-)

There's being aware and then there's KNOWING lol

 

 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I used to think the main stream media were deliberate in obfuscation with whatever narrative they wanted to push. Now I think it’s not only that at a much higher level but a decline in journalism at the lower level. The amount of mistakes, errors and statistical bullshit that passes into the public eye is increasing at a rapid clip.

We now have uni-graduates writing articles that have all been educated from the same accepted syllabus. The papers fill quotas rather than rely on genuine talent. They need to run cheap because of the decline of physical newspapers and ad income there’s less money around in journalism. There’s no depth of research anymore, and articles are usually rehashed from other sources with click bait headlines.

A senior ex BBC journalist wrote a good book on the subject called 'The Noble Liar', he thinks their whole news output extremely biased and that when people realise what's been fed them for the past few decades they will be incensed. But his take is that the BBC simply can't help itself (hence book title), they are staffed to the gills with liberal opinion and think eventually everyone will be 'persuaded' to think just like them. The author believes they are irredeemable because their mindset is utopian, and such visions and visionaries always end in catastrophe.

[DurhamBorn]

Remember when i said copper had gone up so much as China would be investing in its electricity/power network and that used 40% of the copper China imports and that energy use would follow with a lag?

Well here it is.

https://menafn.com/1101745629/China-Power-consumption-rises-185-pct-in-February&source=30

The key thing now is coal.Will China flatline its coal produced electricity and move more to natural gas?.

[Errol]

 

[moneyscam]

3 hours ago, BoSon said:

Not logged into it recently so it may have changed but the link below gives the breakdown of current state of state pension in terms of qualifying years and forecast. Can use an existing government gateway login if have one for other business/self-employed/self-assessment uses:

http://www.tax.service.gov.uk/checkmystatepension

 

I checked mine recently and as I worked abroad for many years and have quite a few gaps I would only qualify for half the full  state pension with only 14 years of contributions. It did say on there I could purchase years for £800 each. I am considering doing that but need to speak to them to calculate if it's worth it. I think also it may be limited to a maximum of 6 years that I can purchase. 

[leonardratso]

9 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

I checked mine recently and as I worked abroad for many years and have quite a few gaps I would only qualify for half the full  state pension with only 14 years of contributions. It did say on there I could purchase years for £800 each. I am considering doing that but need to speak to them to calculate if it's worth it. I think also it may be limited to a maximum of 6 years that I can purchase. 

yeah got some opted out of serps (contractor) years on mine which arent full years but i cant buy them since its been more than 6 years ago, looks like they ll only let me fill any years that werent full in the last 6 years.

Doesnt matter much, says ive got 33 years as full so i wont be getting anythig more than they estimate, of course that will be a big fat zilch if i peg it. Meanwhile i still have to pay the fucker to cover govt pensions, bastards.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Remember that scene in The Big Short where Mark Baum says "It's time to call bullshit", and his underling asks on what and he replies "EVERYTHING!"? 

 

I was (and still am) highly sceptical of Bitcoin etc, but I think I finally understand what some of the more thoughtful crypto advocates are getting at: If you think Bitcoin is bullshit then wait until you find out about QE and fractional reserve banking. 

 

I think the moment is approaching where it's going to be time to call bullshit on everything again. 

I too am skeptical about BTC - and yet I own some!! For me it is a proxy play on the Blockchain tech which I think will rapidly come to create a massively disruptive digital transformation for us all, in terms of work, business, government ...think 'phone apps' but with knobs on!! You see I don't know which crypto/s will come to dominate (bit like predicting what search engine would eventually win out). But for now I'm riding the BTC wave. Speculative I agree, as I think several cryptos will come to dominate the future,but for anyone wanting to invest in automation/tech, I think this is one of the main ways and sectors to have (small/large?) foot hold in.                                                                                                                                                                                                       The many detractors ask disparragingly '...just what is btc meant to be?' and would also probably vehimintly disagree that BTC has any role as a tech play/digital gold/bearer asset/insurance against monetary collapse. I recently wrote that the term crypto 'coin' is misleading, and a more apt description would be Blockchain applications, and the main endeavour is to provide the infrastructure/processes in order to digitally automate and integrate our lives. So in regard to the changes/revolution ahead, discussions around which cryptos might become a future money or a store of value, though important considerations for investors, could at same time almost be seen as a very separate and maybe evan secondary debate. It is a complicated sector, but the tech is being adopted at pace (eg recent NFT Beeple art sale), so I'd definitely encourage all to read up more about the subject. 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Mooping said:

Hi, I haven't been on here for a few months and then only browsed.  But very informative thread.

What's the best way of investing in Gold and Silver if you are in the UK?  Someone did mention Jupiter Gold whatever that is?  

Not really sure what you mean by 'best way'. But for me I own some Jupiter gold and silver fund because I think it is one of the lower risk ways to invest in precious metals (I also own individual stocks but I think that is high risk). The fund provides exposure to both gold/silver mining stocks and also physical gold/silver which I think is good. But not meant as advise and please dyor.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, AWW said:

The Potash stocks discussed at length previously are the food play. Right at the start of the supply chain.

Yes, but Potash has run up. As an alternative for potash DurhamBorn said recently that he might have some ideas about factory farming, hydroponics, lab grown meat, etc, and if so he would come back after doing some research and discuss them here on the thread.                                                                                                                       DB, can I ask - did you come to any conclusions about factory farming and how to play it?

[dnb24]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Remember when i said copper had gone up so much as China would be investing in its electricity/power network and that used 40% of the copper China imports and that energy use would follow with a lag?

Well here it is.

https://menafn.com/1101745629/China-Power-consumption-rises-185-pct-in-February&source=30

The key thing now is coal.Will China flatline its coal produced electricity and move more to natural gas?.

https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?visual=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F906621586&show_artwork=true&scheme=https#

This podcast talks about the same thing- they think India China and other developing nations both go natural gas but at the same time said don’t underestimate coal.

A lot of cross over with this thread- talking about carbon capture with Occidental, and the juxtaposition of being dumped by the ESG funds due to being “not green” vs Tesla who just bought $1.5billion of bitcoin! Talk about the move in the developing nations- circa 2billion people moving into first world conditions and the need for energy. Really recommended.

[Micky Roberts]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

I checked mine recently and as I worked abroad for many years and have quite a few gaps I would only qualify for half the full  state pension with only 14 years of contributions. It did say on there I could purchase years for £800 each. I am considering doing that but need to speak to them to calculate if it's worth it. I think also it may be limited to a maximum of 6 years that I can purchase. 

From personal experience you can pay Class 2 voluntary contributions (while working abroad) at approx. £160 per year.

Each £160 paid in NI will give you approx. £5 per week additional pension. Cash payback in 32 weeks once you draw your pension. 

For me it was a 'no brainer'.

https://www.gov.uk/national-insurance-if-you-go-abroad

[King Penda]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Agree completely. 

 

I'm very cogniscent of the fact that confiscation is a strong possibility. 

 

That's another reason why I don't rate pensions. 

 

That's why these are such dangerous times: not only do you need to be right, you need to be able to avoid state theft of your reward for being right. 

 

That's why I appreciate this site so much. 

 

Wouldn't want to face the coming apocalypse with any other bunch of pizza baking, yellow sticker hunting freaks and misfits. 

 

No offence, I include myself in there😂😘

They won’t steal

pensions they will means test them in the future they promised you 170 odd quid a week if your private pension brings in 500 a month they will deduct that or a % of it .

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Hardhat said:

The other sector we may want to look at is agri tech, I.e. hydroponics, lab grown meat, meat alternatives, and vertical farms. There is no potash required for some of those technologies.

Agronomics (LON:ANIC) has been mentioned on here before. I will be opening a position on ISA topup day.

 

I agree Agronomics is a good fund I think. Coincidentally I have just asked DurhamBorn if he could comment whether he has any further thoughts about vertical 'factory' farming/agritech, because he mentioned a while back that he was looking specifically into this sector.