Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

51 minutes ago, nirvana said:

Everything looks like it wants to shit the bed to me

what a complete knob, just got raped trying to short Nasdaq...

BuY THE DIPS YOU COCK! The wicks were telling you what was coming...

fucker has bounced like a lovely pair of juicy titties........shut up you child! 

NURSE! 

edit...can't even feckin spell either 

[nirvana]

kinnel I've just been on the now infamous FF to check inflation news 

BLoody mario Draghi is now President of ITALY! Fucker gets everywhere 

There's this geezer on there who is a multi-millionaire and all the fucker seems to do is buy the dips on the DOW all day long.......might be worth a try? 

[Noallegiance]

Can they hold on until next week?

Although my reflation portfolio keeps going up apace so I'm not totally complaining!

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Bringing up the topic of resources funds for the reflation again - now that the Ninety One Natural resources Fund is being got rid of has anyone else noticed the VanEck Natural Resources ETF? Available through Hargreaves under the ticker HAP. Not sure if it would be a decent alternative, but check out some of the holdings below:

 

Some familiar names there for us on this forum! Why would it be so heavy on Deere?

Full holdings on the Vaneck website here.

Looks a cracking fund,it could be because Deere has trebled since last March,maybe it was the biggest holding already and the outperformance has lifted it.You would think they would sell a lot though if thats the case.

[DoINeedOne]

Sold Repsol today pretty sure no-one gives a fuck but, Was up nearly 70% and want cash to diversify more still own Gazprom, BP And Shell

Sorry @DurhamBorn  promise i will buy back in

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 hours ago, Hancock said:

No matter where i work on earth there is always a smoggy there, if this carries on they may find work on their doorstep.

Yes, us bastards get in where a fart wouldn't 😉

[nomadic]

33 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Sold Repsol today pretty sure no-one gives a fuck but, Was up nearly 70% and want cash to diversify more still own Gazprom, BP And Shell

Sorry @DurhamBorn  promise i will buy back in

 

I am on the verge of also selling some Repsol as I am up 85%, but that's nothing compared to Tullow Oil up 284%.

[janch]

14 minutes ago, nomadic said:

I am on the verge of also selling some Repsol as I am up 85%, but that's nothing compared to Tullow Oil up 284%.

I've top-sliced REP and I'm learning the hard way this is much better than selling completely (RMG ).  I also have some TLW but haven't had it for long so no mad gainz yet

They also need to extend their debt financing:

"Talks with bondholders and banks continue and CEO Rahul Dhir said he expected to reach a deal with creditors to extend 2021 and 2022 maturities............

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tullow-oil-expects-500-million-070612907.html

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I know this isn’t the place for AIM and small cap miners (with debt, takeovers etc some of the mid-caps may struggle etc) but I thought I may allow a very small calculated punt for any melt up some speculative high risk miners.

Channeling @kibuc have any of these come on your radar? Appreciate any views you may have, as I’ve seen them been mentioned in a few places now.

Nicola mining

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/nicola-mining.html

Aurcana Silver

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/aurcana-silver.html

Blue Lagoon resources

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/blue-lagoon-resources.html

Irving Resources

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/irving-resources.html

I heard lots of good reviews about Aurcana so bought some late 2019. I was looking for some junior silver miners at the time because there is no junior silver etf such as a gdxj. Glad to hear you are still hearing positive things about it. Risky to buy small caps I know but consensus was, if I recall correctly, it had good team and good mineral reserves/prospects (I know don't they all!).

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I heard lots of good reviews about Aurcana so bought some late 2019. I was looking for some junior silver miners at the time because there is no junior silver etf such as a gdxj. Glad to hear you are still hearing positive things about it. Risky to buy small caps I know but consensus was, if I recall correctly, it had good team and good mineral reserves/prospects (I know don't they all!).

SILJ but its whether you can buy it.

[DurhamBorn]

This headline is so ludicrous you wonder are the press mostly idiots,or hiding the truth.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/12/economic-impact-brexit-latest-lockdown-revealed-live-updates/

So they say bonds hit new record high (they mean yields,not the bonds)

No,the record high was 15.68% in September 1981.

[Noallegiance]

This is relevant, IMO 

 

 

 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

This headline is so ludicrous you wonder are the press mostly idiots,or hiding the truth.

It's the former. Most press nowadays is actually an uncritically regurgitated press release. Journalists who are capable of original thought and independent opinion are a rare breed, usually deplatformed before they become well-known.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

SILJ but its whether you can buy it.

Thanks but I only use Hargreaves, Halifax and Interactive Investor, mainly for their low charges, and tbh it's only the lack of sil/silj thats frustrated me so far. None allowed silj when I last wanted to buy, but I will check to see if it's changed.

[leonardratso]

34 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks but I only use Hargreaves, Halifax and Interactive Investor, mainly for their low charges, and tbh it's only the lack of sil/silj thats frustrated me so far. None allowed silj when I last wanted to buy, but I will check to see if it's changed.

you probably wont get it due to the lack of a KIID, wasnt there a gdp version mentioned somewhere, i cant remember.

[feed]

https://www.teletrader.com/us-revenue-service-issues-first-stimulus-checks/news/details/54901558?internal=1

The United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) stated on Friday it had started issuing the first checks worth $1,400, provided through the stimulus passed to combat the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

And in completely unrelated news

https://www.teletrader.com/la-to-reopen-restaurants-theaters-on-monday/news/details/54901071?internal=1

"LA County has met the state’s threshold to reopen key sectors in line with the red tier, allowing significant sectors to reopen their indoor operations on Monday, March 15 at 12:01 AM," the officials tweeted

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

you probably wont get it due to the lack of a KIID, wasnt there a gdp version mentioned somewhere, i cant remember.

Do you mean Jupiter gold and silver?

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

Do you mean Jupiter gold and silver?

hmm, i have that, but i thought there was one closer, i might be wrong, maybe someone else has a better memory?

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This headline is so ludicrous you wonder are the press mostly idiots,or hiding the truth.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/12/economic-impact-brexit-latest-lockdown-revealed-live-updates/

So they say bonds hit new record high (they mean yields,not the bonds)

No,the record high was 15.68% in September 1981.

I used to think the main stream media were deliberate in obfuscation with whatever narrative they wanted to push. Now I think it’s not only that at a much higher level but a decline in journalism at the lower level. The amount of mistakes, errors and statistical bullshit that passes into the public eye is increasing at a rapid clip.

We now have uni-graduates writing articles that have all been educated from the same accepted syllabus. The papers fill quotas rather than rely on genuine talent. They need to run cheap because of the decline of physical newspapers and ad income there’s less money around in journalism. There’s no depth of research anymore, and articles are usually rehashed from other sources with click bait headlines.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Remember that scene in The Big Short where Mark Baum says "It's time to call bullshit", and his underling asks on what and he replies "EVERYTHING!"? 

 

I was (and still am) highly sceptical of Bitcoin etc, but I think I finally understand what some of the more thoughtful crypto advocates are getting at: If you think Bitcoin is bullshit then wait until you find out about QE and fractional reserve banking. 

 

I think the moment is approaching where it's going to be time to call bullshit on everything again. 

[Mooping]

10 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks but I only use Hargreaves, Halifax and Interactive Investor, mainly for their low charges, and tbh it's only the lack of sil/silj thats frustrated me so far. None allowed silj when I last wanted to buy, but I will check to see if it's changed.

Hi, I haven't been on here for a few months and then only browsed.  But very informative thread.

What's the best way of investing in Gold and Silver if you are in the UK?  Someone did mention Jupiter Gold whatever that is?  

[wherebee]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Remember that scene in The Big Short where Mark Baum says "It's time to call bullshit", and his underling asks on what and he replies "EVERYTHING!"? 

 

I was (and still am) highly sceptical of Bitcoin etc, but I think I finally understand what some of the more thoughtful crypto advocates are getting at: If you think Bitcoin is bullshit then wait until you find out about QE and fractional reserve banking. 

 

I think the moment is approaching where it's going to be time to call bullshit on everything again. 

yes, I think you are right.  

I think in my lifetime we are going to see a 'great reset' in one very very important way - real things such as a house you own outright, or a gold coin you hold, or a bitcoin wallet you control, will become worth a million times more than a 'pension' in a ledger somewhere.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9 minutes ago, wherebee said:

yes, I think you are right.  

I think in my lifetime we are going to see a 'great reset' in one very very important way - real things such as a house you own outright, or a gold coin you hold, or a bitcoin wallet you control, will become worth a million times more than a 'pension' in a ledger somewhere.

100%

 

I only see it though a glass darkly, to get biblical, but I see Fiat etc having an epic emperors new clothes moment. 

 

And anyone not holding something that's valued by people is going to be in a world of shit. 

[Loki]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

100%

 

I only see it though a glass darkly, to get biblical, but I see Fiat etc having an epic emperors new clothes moment. 

 

And anyone not holding something that's valued by people is going to be in a world of shit. 

I lean more towards that being end of the decade than this year's BK

[Option5]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And anyone not holding something that's valued by people is going to be in a world of shit. 

Or people with real assets but large debt, especially as interest rates will probably rise prior to the crash. The lenders will want those assets if cash is worthless.