Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Agree with you it's priced in. But the inflation lags...

Next up: Infrastructure Bill. 3 Tn for starters? And boy will it be fast, they havent allowed Biden take questions since he took the throne, and have barely let him out of the basement at all. He's not going to last much longer.

😅 bloody hell, just popped up on my timeline...

Edit:

This place has been a great education for me. I'm starting to sound like I know what I'm talking about. Doesn't happen often.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 07/03/2021 at 23:09, Hancock said:

Maybe we stayed in the same place, but i went the other year and it is an awful place. 

 

(only went to Ko-samui in 1990) You are CORRECT ...as i got into trouble over recommending samui to someone for their honeymoon in 2002, when i checked with a mate who lives out that way permanently, he told me the good 'ol days on samui are long gone, it's basically a greedy/overpriced place run by the mafia-police...

 

Still it's got to be better than blighty Devil's Island  at the mo...? 

 

Speaking of which...Here's my ALL TIME FAV Film!

 

Click the pic and it will take you to the YT film, but HURRY as these GREAT old films get pulled down regularly!

 

 

Okey dokey back on topic!

 

I'm looking to open an new stocks/ISA acc next month /tax year AND been looking at: nutmeg.com

 

Anyone here with any experience with them?

 

They have VERY GOOD reviews online, also moneysavingexpert.com/savings/stocks-shares-isas/ ...is doing a deal where ya get ZERO fees for the 1st year, i cut off the moneysavingexpert.com link but it seems you have to do it via them to get the deal, but i can't stand martin lewis!

 

On 08/03/2021 at 12:16, DurhamBorn said:

Iv also bought 20 tins of Aldi corned beef this morning at 1.47p a tin from Brazil.

 

LOVE IT!

 

 

[JREWING]

T10

Nudging?

 

Gold

Nudging?

Watching these two.

Which one goes up first. Gold seems to be holding well.

With stimuli priced in Will they let the T10 tick up? 

Decision decision.

 

[AWW]

Completely off topic but if anyone's looking for a Thai island that hasn't been completely ruined (although I last went in 2016), try Ko Lanta.

Or just go to the Philippines instead.

[wherebee]

Well. that's 20k of BP and XOM sold for a profit of 7,500.  I'm happy to have some money off the table now, even though (as ever) I would have made slightly more if I had waited until end of day US time today.

Is anyone else feeling as nervous as me?  Like a black cloud is looming?  Or is that just me being croc?

[Noallegiance]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Well. that's 20k of BP and XOM sold for a profit of 7,500.  I'm happy to have some money off the table now, even though (as ever) I would have made slightly more if I had waited until end of day US time today.

Is anyone else feeling as nervous as me?  Like a black cloud is looming?  Or is that just me being croc?

I'm a risk-averse wreck but with stimmies and a new infrastructure bill I'm leaving my portfolio alone. Reckon I'll start getting twitchy if graphs start resembling BTC. 

[wherebee]

10 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm a risk-averse wreck but with stimmies and a new infrastructure bill I'm leaving my portfolio alone. Reckon I'll start getting twitchy if graphs start resembling BTC. 

yeah, I know.  

But as a natural contrarian, now everyone is saying that the US stimmies and free cash will result in a boom, I'm looking over my shoulder as a black swan comes in and shits all over the desk. 

That's where ladders really help, I think - another H/T to this thread.  I had set partial sell points and stuck to them.

[Loki]

15 minutes ago, wherebee said:

yeah, I know.  

But as a natural contrarian, now everyone is saying that the US stimmies and free cash will result in a boom, I'm looking over my shoulder as a black swan comes in and shits all over the desk. 

That's where ladders really help, I think - another H/T to this thread.  I had set partial sell points and stuck to them.

It's all about inflection points rather than just blunt contrarianism is what I've learned 

[DurhamBorn]

54 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Well. that's 20k of BP and XOM sold for a profit of 7,500.  I'm happy to have some money off the table now, even though (as ever) I would have made slightly more if I had waited until end of day US time today.

Is anyone else feeling as nervous as me?  Like a black cloud is looming?  Or is that just me being croc?

I only spent about 30 seconds looking at the market today and that was mainly to see Royal Mail had trebled now so sliced some off,.I was perfecting my chicken egg fried rice recipe and i must say iv got it perfect now.About £1.50 for two people.

 

[leonardratso]

can that be made with other eggs?

[CVG]

Someone on TOS was asking about a site showing upcoming financial indicators. It was this one. Looks really useful.

https://www.forexfactory.com/

[AlfredTheLittle]

Interesting article on oilprice.com this morning saying US shale production is turning out to be higher than expected, which may keep a lid on the price of oil

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-US-Shale-Production-Remains-Stubbornly-High.html

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Well. that's 20k of BP and XOM sold for a profit of 7,500.  I'm happy to have some money off the table now, even though (as ever) I would have made slightly more if I had waited until end of day US time today.

Is anyone else feeling as nervous as me?  Like a black cloud is looming?  Or is that just me being croc?

Yes, looking at my workplace DC pension and thinking "when should I transfer it into the safer cash option" rather than the stocks option its in at the moment....getting very twitchy and will 'kick myself' when it all goes 'tits-up' and I see my current value halved overnight....when to pull the trigger eh?

[AlfredTheLittle]

37 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

He doesn't understand the lag, its about 12 months. 13 months ago there was still a full fleet drilling and fracking. Those wells were then connected to pipelines, cleaned up, and production ramped up to its max before coming back down the other side to around now. Which is why I said it should be noticeable from about Feb/March. It has started to drop a little, but the storm is masking it. 

There is no way you can replace the added wells of 2/3 of the rig fleet by using extra proppant, does he not think that was thought of before?! Guy is clueless. Let's see how it plays out over the next few months.

Fantastic, thanks. Most articles on there seem pretty rubbish, I thought I'd found a rare good one but maybe not! 

There is another article this morning which ties in with what you have previously said about the Saudis and their production not being as elastic as they claim

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Oil-Exports-Holding-Strong-Despite-Production-Cut-Commitment.html

The oil price seems to be determined not to fall at the moment, in any case

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Yes, looking at my workplace DC pension and thinking "when should I transfer it into the safer cash option" rather than the stocks option its in at the moment....getting very twitchy and will 'kick myself' when it all goes 'tits-up' and I see my current value halved overnight....when to pull the trigger eh?

This is where I use ladders. Switch percentages to cash as the market goes up. Buy back in as it goes down. No chance I'm going to time the BK right. As long as I'm not fully invested at the crash I'll be happy.

In my scheme it takes a day or two for switches to complete.

[AWW]

I can't see there being a meaningful crash in equities now, outside the overbought tech names. Governments are well aware that anything negatively impacting their economies in the next five years will be pinned squarely on their Covid response. They will want to be seen to provide unprecedented support. The buying opportunity was last year.

All IMHO of course.

[Chewing Grass]

13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

New £50 note per the below I nicked from Twitter

 

£50 is the new £20 and everyone will feel so wealthy with a few of those in their wallets.

[VeryMeanReversion]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Yes, looking at my workplace DC pension and thinking "when should I transfer it into the safer cash option" rather than the stocks option its in at the moment....getting very twitchy and will 'kick myself' when it all goes 'tits-up' and I see my current value halved overnight....when to pull the trigger eh?

I sold half of workplace feeder earlier this week. It was a FTSE tracker in my workplace pension. I just use this as a feeder into my SIPP, transferring over when Hargreaves have a cashback offer.

When the FTSE gets above 6800, I'll sell the other half.  I've also put a lot of sell limit orders on my main SIPP to catch any melt-up.

Aim is to get to 35-40% cash with the rest being mostly oil/miners/silver/platinum.  Some odds and ends left over are financial and retail which have not done well but are still paying divis.

More cash in inflationary times appears stupid but I'm expecting volatility later this year and will see what opportunities come up.

 

[Wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

£50 is the new £20 and everyone will feel so wealthy with a few of those in their wallets.

I want to know if I can still use them to light my cigars.

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I want to know if I can still use them to light my cigars.

Only one person seems to have burned a plastic bank note on youtube and it was only £5.

They seem to be self-extinguishing.

 

[M S E Refugee]

21 minutes ago, AWW said:

I can't see there being a meaningful crash in equities now, outside the overbought tech names. Governments are well aware that anything negatively impacting their economies in the next five years will be pinned squarely on their Covid response. They will want to be seen to provide unprecedented support. The buying opportunity was last year.

All IMHO of course.

This is what is at the back of my mind.

The BK may just be for the Tech stocks and may not really affect commodity stocks.

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

This is where I use ladders. Switch percentages to cash as the market goes up. Buy back in as it goes down. No chance I'm going to time the BK right. As long as I'm not fully invested at the crash I'll be happy.

In my scheme it takes a day or two for switches to complete.

On what time period do you do that - daily, weekly, or monthly?

[AWW]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

This is what is at the back of my mind.

The BK may just be for the Tech stocks and may not really affect commodity stocks.

I tend to look at psychology alongside fundamentals. I think it's fair to say that most people on this thread see the bull case for commodities. That even some of us are making noises about selling, about fear of taking a significant hit, tells me that, in psychological terms, we're going to see the commodity stocks grinding higher and higher. Not in a linear fashion of course, but still, I think the bigger risk is selling too early.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

I tend to look at psychology alongside fundamentals. I think it's fair to say that most people on this thread see the bull case for commodities. That even some of us are making noises about selling, about fear of taking a significant hit, tells me that, in psychological terms, we're going to see the commodity stocks grinding higher and higher. Not in a linear fashion of course, but still, I think the bigger risk is selling too early.

When David Hunter talks about up to 80% correction in stocks I can see it happening for the likes of Tesla but not really for the Oil stocks.

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Someone on TOS was asking about a site showing upcoming financial indicators. It was this one. Looks really useful.

https://www.forexfactory.com/

haha I hang out on FF.....beware it's full of nut jobs