Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

Whilst it was certainly true pre GFC, things have moved on significantly in the derivatives market.

Now all OTC derivative trades have to be centrally cleared in a CCP (Central counter-party). There are several in the major financial centres (LCH London, Eurex EU, CME US). The CCP becomes the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer. All participants have to pay into a default fund and post margin when their positions swing. CCP's allow for netting so not as significant as they would be if they were done on a counterparty to counterparty basis. All trades, net bank positions and CCP margin / liquidity positions must be reported daily to govt clearing repositories for reporting and oversight by the relevant financial regulator.

Also bear in mind the vast majority of derivative users are the global banks. They use them in two ways, 1) to manage their own interest / currency risk related to funding and mortgage lending (hence why interest rate swaps are circa 60% of the volume of derivatives traded) and 2)to make markets to their prime brokerage clients (hedge funds, asset managers, corporate treasury). So most but not all the risk inherently lay with the banks before clearing.

Does this eliminate the risk of derivatives in a market dislocation? No, instead it concentrates it in the CCP's. The difference is that you no longer have the chained counterparty cascade if one significant player (i.e Lehmans or Bear Stearns) goes tits up as in 2008. There is a sinking fund and margin funds to cover settlement in the event of defaults. Rather than a disorderly liquidation and settlement process as in 2008 this can now be managed albeit this is a function of how widespread the defaults are occurring. Also the financial regulator and govt are not flying blind as they were before 2008 where they didn't have a fecking clue what was going on. Now they have the regulatory and legal oversight (don't forget the imposition of bank living wills as well) and should have a better grip on the systemic and individual bank risk now they have the oversight and data.

Most of Lehman's and Bear Stearns outstanding positions were settled years after 2008 in these CCPs as an example of an orderly liquidation when it works.

Will these CCP's hold up in a BK? That is the quadrillion (notional) question, we will only find out when it happens. However just wanted to update on how things have evolved.

Yeah. The derivatives market is highly regulated nowadays, which is why I always bang on about debt. It’s the business and consumer loans that will sink the banks. There’s been little to no additional regulation here (other than the sensible move of making banks hold more capital). Banking book accounting is massively backward looking. You only take debt provisions once the borrower is in a rubbish financial position. The derivative books against even the best credit names (I.e. governments) not traded through a CCP will have CVA charges taken on day 1 and recalculated daily. The credit risk is then actively managed by hedging this exposure. There’s no active hedging of the credit risk done on lending books.

[geordie_lurch]

For anyone else trying to get their head around Central Bank Digital Currency and where it looks like we are all heading the following blog post and video are a good quick overview IMHO 

https://www.dlacalle.com/en/beware-of-a-central-bank-digital-currency/

 

[Castlevania]

38 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

If you look at the financial statements there’ll be a note to the accounts detailing the debt profile.

@LokiI might be wrong here for Vodafone. Notes 21 and 22 cover borrowings and liquidity. This simply groups their borrowings into buckets as to when they come due.

https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/vodafone/annual-report/vodafone-annual-report-2020.pdf

I think you need to look at their debt investors website to find exactly when the various bonds will mature and the coupons paid. Some companies list the details of all their bonds in the financial statements but seemingly not for Vodafone.

https://investors.vodafone.com/debt-investors/bonds-outstanding-eu-and-us

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

Great Post CP, definitely Raoul is always talking up his book which for him is bitcoin. Hunter is a strange one as you mention he hardly mentions his newsletter. Interesting point you make in that he probably is doing it to get what's in his head out there along with the end of career ego aspect. I just can't see the gold much lower from here view some commentators have. However I'm not so sure about Hunter's view that gold won't revisit these lows in a BK as the melt up will give it a huge buffer, I think in that scenario it could go a fair bit lower than where it is today if only for a brief period. 

Yes, and (evan speaking as a owner of BTC myself) I'm rather suspicious of how much Raoul Pal has actually put into BTC. Initially he spoke in terms of 'most of his wealth', though soon after he begun talking in terms of 'most of his liquid wealth' which of course could mean almost anything. When challenged he even attempted to qualify that by saying it's difficult to quantify because people have different pools of wealth, short term wealth and long term wealth? So who knows, and as he resides on an offshore island paradise it might only just be equivalent to his local 'liquid' current account bank balance in Cayman Island dollars!

[Underwhelmed]

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Very hard to predict when retail trading in the US is now as large as mutuals + hedge funds combined. I think it's very apparent that Mr Hunter is pinning his views on the younger retail cohort shovelling their free money into tech, hence lack of excitement over other sectors like energy that aren't trendy. Essentially he's now following the herd, makes sense given his research on crowd mentality etc, but he's also saying this is going to happen fast enough to cause hesitation from the Fed et al. 

I keep reminding myself that Henrik Zeberg called the March crash superbly, and now he's making the same warnings. Very hard to know who will be right, maybe Henrik is still early. Maybe neither will be right, and we go straight into a new permanent stimmy regime?

did he really? If so must be one of the few he got right

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Definitely not having a go at you Yada yada yada, but putting money into the stock market is NOT the same as saving. I only point this out because - coincidentally - I have just posted something regarding the 'finacialisation' of our economy and the negatives that flow from this. And where it is government discouragment of things such as saving, but at same time encouraging debt, risk - both corporate and private - that have caused the economy to end up in the complete and utter mess it is in. 

I didn't say putting it into the stock market was the only or main form of saving .  I would have thought that older age groups are more likely to save, quite likely to have more "excess savings" from the pandemic restrictions too. On average of course. So what I'm interested in is where this group is putting their saved money. Perhaps they're going along with the lifestyle plans that suggest they pile into bonds at their age? Lots of options including debt repayment, although I would expect that to be something else the young have more of.

Another interesting thing is that the 25-34 bracket is what I would think to be the prime crypto currency age range. If they're putting 50% in the stock market then a lot less must be going into crypto.

I'll have a look at the your post you're referring to in a minute. I'm just vain enough to look at my notifications first!

Ps I welcome criticism and much rather receive that than be ignored. When I'm wrong I want to at least be challenged so I have the opportunity to consider that opinion too. I might still take the wrong option but at least I will have thought about it more. Applies when I'm right too but hopefully I will stick with those choices.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I didn't say putting it into the stock market was the only or main form of saving .  I would have thought that older age groups are more likely to save, quite likely to have more "excess savings" from the pandemic restrictions too. On average of course. So what I'm interested in is where this group is putting their saved money. Perhaps they're going along with the lifestyle plans that suggest they pile into bonds at their age? Lots of options including debt repayment, although I would expect that to be something else the young have more of.

I will give you some feedback, I'm over 55, don't want to work full time a day past 60 or 62 at a stretch and don't have enough pension provision.

Have 5 or so years to fix the situation by smashing pension contribs and minimising tax

Other strategy, have paid off cards, paying off cars next with no intention of changing, followed by possibly the mortgage but its only at B of E base plus 2%.

All the tax free lumps will be used to bridge to state pension at 67.

Not enough pension money for extravagance in retirement but I will not have to drag myself out of bed into work and that to me is victory.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I will give you some feedback, I'm over 55, don't want to work full time a day past 60 or 62 at a stretch and don't have enough pension provision.

Have 5 or so years to fix the situation by smashing pension contribs and minimising tax

Other strategy, have paid off cards, paying off cars next with no intention of changing, followed by possibly the mortgage but its only at B of E base plus 2%.

All the tax free lumps will be used to bridge to state pension at 67.

Not enough pension money for extravagance in retirement but I will not have to drag myself out of bed into work and that to me is victory.

Good luck!

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Good luck!

I think I will need a good dose of it.

[Bricormortis]

 I am 64, retired 13 months ago. My pension income from various sources is £10,600 a year.

I need £600 a month to live on excluding car costs which is £ 800 before repairs or fuel. No debts.

  I got laughed at on Tos for living in a rented room but that was what suited my needs at that point in time. 

I always said on that site I would buy a hovel for cash when it suited me. Currently living in a 3 bed detached so that turned out alright.  ( paid £125,000 cash for it last year. )

I did not see lockdown coming and it has reduced my petrol bill and living expenses a bit.

I keep circa 50% of my savings invested in PM s related,  and oil stocks and a wee bit of commodity miners. The rest is cash mostly in premium bonds. Waiting for the opportunity to buy low. I have made various investing mistakes but learned so much on here its fantastic. Thank you all.

Silver has bailed out my investing errors, and now silver is cooling off.. the oilies are limiting the damage on silver.

Can I just say I have not yet made up my mind about whether retirement is all its cracked up to be...lockdown has clouded the picture... I would say dont rush though if pushed for an opinion.

[JMD]

38 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I didn't say putting it into the stock market was the only or main form of saving .  I would have thought that older age groups are more likely to save, quite likely to have more "excess savings" from the pandemic restrictions too. On average of course. So what I'm interested in is where this group is putting their saved money. Perhaps they're going along with the lifestyle plans that suggest they pile into bonds at their age? Lots of options including debt repayment, although I would expect that to be something else the young have more of.

Another interesting thing is that the 25-34 bracket is what I would think to be the prime crypto currency age range. If they're putting 50% in the stock market then a lot less must be going into crypto.

I'll have a look at the your post you're referring to in a minute. I'm just vain enough to look at my notifications first!

Ps I welcome criticism and much rather receive that than be ignored. When I'm wrong I want to at least be challenged so I have the opportunity to consider that opinion too. I might still take the wrong option but at least I will have thought about it more. Applies when I'm right too but hopefully I will stick with those choices.

Ok, as requested, some more feedback then!! ... But I'm going 'full pedant' on yer Yadda!! Saving and Investing are two different things, there is no overlap despite what the financial institutions would have us all believe. It is a glaring failing that today ordinary people cannot earn a decent yield on their savings, so are encouraged to risk their capitol by using investments. For example I am not of course knocking pension products, etc, but terminology is important. So yes people save for their retirement but pensions (defined contribution ones) are not saving schemes, ie there is risk and no guarantees. Not patronising you Yada - as I know you know this stuff already - but it's a pet hate of mine because for me it symbolises at an everyday level how unstable our modern economy is and how unfairly skewed it is against the ordinary person.

[Barnsey]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Fully agree Barnsey, I can't see how it'll play out either. I like @sancho panza BK checklist, and we'll need to watch it like hawks, as the unwind could be very fast. I also agree with btc and tech going bust without damaging the real economy. I think I mused on this a while back, that with 2 odd trillion in Tesla and BTC alone is enough to kick off a BK without widespread damage, depending on counterparties and whcih funds are blown up. Since then, we've seen a 40% drop in Tesla, going almost un noticed. What's that, $400 billion??? Ooof. Some people are hurting, some people made out like bandits and put their money somewhere else. Maybe a little into XOM...sector rotation anyone?!

John Authers has been writing lots of articles on the recent aggressive shift from growth to value, looks like this new wave of stimmy dosh could undo that for now. Highly recommend everyone to subscribe to his free daily email.

https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/points-of-return

[DurhamBorn]

@moneyscam thanks for the posts,really interesting.I think the question is how quickly the CBs could backstop the big banks etc.Its a bit fuzzy in my mind,but i think the risks are perhaps where the liquidity is pulled from.It could be derivatives themselves dont actually take down the markets into a crash,but if there is a huge unwind,perhaps an interest rate shock,or currency swaps in the big trades then the liquidity pulled could take down other areas.I know they pair off etc.

Its possible the CBs panic inbetween any unwind,so although the trades air off,the CBs inject massive liquidity during the process.

All roads seem to lead to inflation/reflation of course,the risk being it takes a whacking great deflation to ge there.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Underwhelmed said:

did he really? If so must be one of the few he got right

It was painful to watch Mr Hunter keep reassuring his followers that things were going to turn up imminently, staggering really, all the way down in that March crash. Just as Henrik has probably lost many quite a bit since then, I'm certain Dave did too at that point, with his undeniable expression of certainty and timing calls despite not selling a product and saying he doesn't do timing.

The two of them have even discussed possible events admirably since, and the conclusion was that Henrik can see the deflationary bust but is blind to the liquidity and possibility of more upside. Both worthy follows with a dose of balance and caution.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

David is a liquidity guy really in that he understands how much the economy pulls and pushes on the Fed.He knows the channels the Fed uses to get liquidity out there.He also knows the leads and lags on what this money does.Certain sectors do best at different stages of the money cycle.

His BK call is because he knows there arent enough dollars out there for the incredible derivative trades.However,if the Fed doesnt tighten at all from here and stays loose and if the governments keep spending,there will be no BK,there will be events,flash crashes in sectors etc and lots of rotation.

That wouldnt say David was wrong,because where we are now is exactly where he said we would be and some areas will crash,and wipe many people out.

The main worry i have if a BK happens is what is its structure.If its derivative based and counterparties fail everywhere thats very dangerous indeed.Even something like BAT has big debts with derivatives agains the interest rates and currencies.What happens if they all fail?

That is why i want to see debt structures that are safe,even if high.BAT could repay its debts as they come due with free cash,but would have to cancel the dividend.So could VOD,so could Imperial etc.

These companies have done a lot of work the last few years  structuring their debt in this way.That says to me,they know inflation is coming and they want to be able to redeem the debt each year without rolling over if needed.

For me the definiton of a BK is a huge deflationary wave that causes havoc in the banking system causing a cascade of debt defaults.Having said that,I find it hard to envision a way in which that doesn't occur.Look at Greensill...some of these shadow banks are wound that tight that ti won't take much of a loss to wipe out their capital.I also think for us to move straight to an inflationary period,then we'd need a stable dollar despite the printing,again I struggle to see that.

Greensill alone will take out a chunk of steel production if it isn't helped outBut it's a good example as the deflationary event ie default begets a period of rising prices.

AS I've said before DH has provided some of the best macro calls and analysis out there.He was one of the few proper bears calling for a melt up and even if we don't hit his target of 4500,he still made his call sometime last year when Brent was sub $40 iirc.Thats one hell of a call.One hell of a call.All the people looking to him to make short term calls are doing the equivalent of getting a racehorse to pul the milk cart imho.

I think your analysis of BAT/Vod  debt structure is bang on.

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Great Post CP, definitely Raoul is always talking up his book which for him is bitcoin. Hunter is a strange one as you mention he hardly mentions his newsletter. Interesting point you make in that he probably is doing it to get what's in his head out there along with the end of career ego aspect. I just can't see the gold much lower from here view some commentators have. However I'm not so sure about Hunter's view that gold won't revisit these lows in a BK as the melt up will give it a huge buffer, I think in that scenario it could go a fair bit lower than where it is today if only for a brief period. 

Think you and CP ahve nailed Raoul.

AS for Hunter,I ddin't even know he had a newsletter which tells me a lot given how much I've watched him over the years.

ALden ahd a great chart posted sometime back about gold price versus real yields on UST's which was very covnvincing and the first time I'd seen that anaylsis(she's a bright lass).I dont have it to hand.

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Fully agree Barnsey, I can't see how it'll play out either. I like @sancho panza BK checklist, and we'll need to watch it like hawks, as the unwind could be very fast. I also agree with btc and tech going bust without damaging the real economy. I think I mused on this a while back, that with 2 odd trillion in Tesla and BTC alone is enough to kick off a BK without widespread damage, depending on counterparties and whcih funds are blown up. Since then, we've seen a 40% drop in Tesla, going almost un noticed. What's that, $400 billion??? Ooof. Some people are hurting, some people made out like bandits and put their money somewhere else. Maybe a little into XOM...sector rotation anyone?!

I think there's a lot of areas that can deflate before we have anything approaching trouble in the banking sector given the sheer unprecendeted scale of teh voer valuations in some sectors(especailly tech but also things like UK housbuilders)

Witoht wishing to bang on about Greensill I tend to find theese mini banking scandals normally presage a wider problem eg Madoff,Northern Rock,Credit Anschluss etc etc

ref XOM even on down days for oil at the mintue,the quality stocks are still rising.Not wanting to sound like a market seer as Im not ,but even yesterday oil was down 2%,XOM gaiend 20c.COuld it be we're starting to see the insto money coming back into the sector?possibly.

ref gold ,your point on copper made me think.We are at an inflection point if the chart belwo is right.but I see gold back up from here.but then Im long PM miners already and about to buy some calls>Ill see if I can dig out that Alden chart.

sorry if i seem copper obsessed at the mo.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I need to learn more about derivatives. I use options for leverage, and when I buy one, I have to wait a little bit for the counterparty to take my offer. So our two options trades (call and put) net off. And I can't be margin called, I just lose my premium. Suits me. Futures are margin based, so I can see how those get messy to unwind in a March like event. And there is a bunch of weird and wonderful stuff out there like credit default swaps and stuff they've invented we've not yet heard of. Does anyone have any idea how much of this stuff doesn't net off like my simple trades?

Excellent and very helpful post btw.

The issue is counterparty risk.I'm not sure of the amrgin rules so happy to be educated but the big players only have to psot margin rather than have the udnerlying ,commonly called naked options.The market makers may not have set aside enoguh shares to cover the options eactivity eg Gamestop.

When you get a default eg Greensill as looks likely(although there not an options palyer) then there's a cascade effect or a wave of defaults that follow the inital default.

AS the wave progresses hits the shore it's power disspiates.Thats the equivalent in derivatives as all the players take a hair cut and carry on.When lehman went under a friend of mine was advising hsi higher ups/regulaotrs after the fact about Lehman's exposure and to put ti simply,they didn't exactly know because of how deep the rpoblems were.

So when we get a default in US optiosn,teh Fed will have to step in as they gurantee the options markets in the USA-the bankign classes arent daft.The problem willbe in places like europe where market particpants will have to tkae haircuts ie you and I would only get 50% of what we're entitled to.

Obviously in the USA if the Fed is engaged in bailing out the options marekts then they'll be limited what they can do elsewhere.Maybe goes to eplain the AIG bail out.

I'm unsure how much the fed guarantess and whtehr that extends to futures as well as options.happy to learn

[JMD]

3 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Whilst it was certainly true pre GFC, things have moved on significantly in the derivatives market.

Now all OTC derivative trades have to be centrally cleared in a CCP (Central counter-party). There are several in the major financial centres (LCH London, Eurex EU, CME US). The CCP becomes the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer. All participants have to pay into a default fund and post margin when their positions swing. CCP's allow for netting so not as significant as they would be if they were done on a counterparty to counterparty basis. All trades, net bank positions and CCP margin / liquidity positions must be reported daily to govt clearing repositories for reporting and oversight by the relevant financial regulator.

Also bear in mind the vast majority of derivative users are the global banks. They use them in two ways, 1) to manage their own interest / currency risk related to funding and mortgage lending (hence why interest rate swaps are circa 60% of the volume of derivatives traded) and 2)to make markets to their prime brokerage clients (hedge funds, asset managers, corporate treasury). So most but not all the risk inherently lay with the banks before clearing.

Does this eliminate the risk of derivatives in a market dislocation? No, instead it concentrates it in the CCP's. The difference is that you no longer have the chained counterparty cascade if one significant player (i.e Lehmans or Bear Stearns) goes tits up as in 2008. There is a sinking fund and margin funds to cover settlement in the event of defaults. Rather than a disorderly liquidation and settlement process as in 2008 this can now be managed albeit this is a function of how widespread the defaults are occurring. Also the financial regulator and govt are not flying blind as they were before 2008 where they didn't have a fecking clue what was going on. Now they have the regulatory and legal oversight (don't forget the imposition of bank living wills as well) and should have a better grip on the systemic and individual bank risk now they have the oversight and data.

Most of Lehman's and Bear Stearns outstanding positions were settled years after 2008 in these CCPs as an example of an orderly liquidation when it works.

Will these CCP's hold up in a BK? That is the quadrillion (notional) question, we will only find out when it happens. However just wanted to update on how things have evolved.

Very informative. Btw thanks also for the Thomas Sowell post quote. If only all American economists were as intelligent, wise and principled as he is, we might not be in such a mess. I remember first seeing him many years ago on a youtube US TV debate type program from the 70's (with full afro!), the subject was of all things, the gender pay gap! He was arguing that the differences were mostly down to personal work choices between the sexes. I can still recall his rational tone and how the opposing side hated being 'confronted' by facts! --Ok I admit it, I'm a fan of his!! But how we have found ourselves, 40 years on arguing the same fruitless subject, is beyond me. (though 'critical race theory' trump's all for full retardation of human thought)

[moneyscam]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@moneyscam thanks for the posts,really interesting.I think the question is how quickly the CBs could backstop the big banks etc.Its a bit fuzzy in my mind,but i think the risks are perhaps where the liquidity is pulled from.It could be derivatives themselves dont actually take down the markets into a crash,but if there is a huge unwind,perhaps an interest rate shock,or currency swaps in the big trades then the liquidity pulled could take down other areas.I know they pair off etc.

Its possible the CBs panic inbetween any unwind,so although the trades air off,the CBs inject massive liquidity during the process.

All roads seem to lead to inflation/reflation of course,the risk being it takes a whacking great deflation to ge there.

No problem, glad to be able to contribute to the valuable knowledge being built up in this thread.

CCP's are designated SIFI's (Systemically important financial institutions) by regulators and it is understood that there is an implicit govt guarantee behind them. This was govt's solution to the risks posed by the OTC derivatives space after the GFC so they have no option but to ensure it works when called for else it all falls apart. It is of course easier to backstop a CCP than individual banks and easier for govt's to obfuscate yet another banking sector bailout behind the guise of a govt regulated SIFI.

 

 

[moneyscam]

14 minutes ago, JMD said:

Very informative. Btw thanks also for the Thomas Sowell post quote. If only all American economists were as intelligent, wise and principled as he is, we might not be in such a mess. I remember first seeing him many years ago on a youtube US TV debate type program from the 70's (with full afro!), the subject was of all things, the gender pay gap! He was arguing that the differences were mostly down to personal work choices between the sexes. I can still recall his rational tone and how the opposing side hated being 'confronted' by facts! --Ok I admit it, I'm a fan of his!! But how we have found ourselves, 40 years on arguing the same fruitless subject, is beyond me. (though 'critical race theory' trump's all for full retardation of human thought)

I really respect and admire Sowell, he was calling out as you say the current bullshit long before a millennial or Gen Z were even a glint in their father's eye. One his memorable points for me was how only 22% IIRC of black kids grew up in a single parent household before the civil rights movement and how this shot up to 67% after with the attendant growth of the welfare state. A similar magnitude of rise was also found in white families with the same results of less than optimal outcomes for the offspring of this cohort. He blames culture rather than any sort of systemic or structural racism. He cites how the black offspring of German women and US soldiers during and after WW2 performed equally as well in IQ / academic tests as their white counterparts due to the fact they grew up in a very different culture that had much higher expectations of them than found in the US. Don't want to derail this thread any further but I highly recommend watching his youtube videos to anyone here for his brilliant insights.

[BurntBread]

42 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

ref XOM even on down days for oil at the mintue,the quality stocks are still rising.Not wanting to sound like a market seer as Im not ,but even yesterday oil was down 2%,XOM gaiend 20c.COuld it be we're starting to see the insto money coming back into the sector?possibly.

One of the commentators about a month ago (Luke Groman?) was saying that March was when the pension funds would re-allocate into oil. This would be purely algorithmic, as oil stocks had already risen, and the pension funds rebalance automatically into rising sectors. I think he called them "the dumbest of money".

[Barnsey]

Fascinating, lead by example?

 

[Barnsey]

Ah f*** it's now in Moneyweek, get ready to buy the value dip folks 

On a more serious note though...too far too fast?

 

[leonardratso]

still say gamestop

hahaha, short termism

[Barnsey]

Re: a previous post about >1 million having left the UK and the possibility of real wage inflation

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ea709746-f4c9-4fc3-80c9-8977b2dbd82d

Trade unions are back after a long absence

There are now some reasons for trade unionists to be optimistic. When Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, told people to go back to work after the first lockdown, the website that helps people find a trade union to join had more hits than ever before. Organise, the worker campaign platform, had fewer than 100,000 members this time last year; now it has more than 1m.

In an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, meanwhile, almost 6,000 workers are voting this month on whether to unionise. The impetus for the union drive is less about pay and more about the way workers are paced by robots and monitored by algorithms. It is a totemic battle for the US’s beleaguered unions, which want to show they have a role in the 21st-century economy.

The politics have shifted in some countries, too. Joe Biden, US president, has warned Amazon not to intimidate workers in Alabama, and has already edged institutions such as the National Labor Relations Board in a more pro-union direction. New Zealand, which deregulated and de-unionised its labour market in the 1990s, is now planning a system where workers and employers will bargain to put a floor on wages and conditions across certain sectors or occupations.

[leonardratso]

enbridge divi came in

$0.56 a share, so i got $0.12 - perfect for my budget(low)