Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

27 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

Back on topic, what are everyones thoughts on gold long term?

I watched the video posted the other day which was saying that there is an inverse relation between gold and interest rates, gold has been heading down for some time now and I'm thinking that a buying opportunity is approaching both for some physical and miners.

I'm starting to keep a closer eye on it, thinking there may be a sweet spot to buy especially if we going to be getting higher inflation feed through later in the year, or even the BK.

Interesting to note the correlations between interest rates and various sectors. 

 

Gold is inverse

House prices inverse

 

Any others? Inverse or otherwise. 

[MrXxxx]

On 12/03/2021 at 21:48, Noallegiance said:

This is relevant, IMO 

 

 

 

Following on from this post (thanks @Noallegiance) that's well worth a watch, I watched this one below that's well worth watching too...explains the mess that QE is, and how even with yield control the system wont be able to avoid rising inflation without a total reset/bust.

 

[Harley]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I use the MSG,you can get on ebay for £3 for 100g lasts ages,the chicken powder in the recipe is out of stock on Tesco etc so i use the MSG,Oxo chicken stock cubes are very similar though and contain MSG if you want to use those.

I do this recipe when iv stripped the bits off a roast chicken and sling them in at the end,its take away quality,but works out about £1.50 for two.

Nice to hear mention of chips and curry sauce at the end!  

[leonardratso]

from monevator originally, not really bitcoin but in the business of; ive been using coinbase pro (gdax) for years, its been pretty good really, at least it works and is fairly simple, did use bitfinex for a while but hard to get cash in and out of and it kept telling me i was in america where it wasnt legal so i stopped using it.

Anyways;

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm

might take a punt at the IPO, hard to say if it will be any good, ive made good cash and good losses in the blockchain stocks themselves, so im wondering if this will be as volatile.

Edit to add, coinbase itself is a bit of a fees rip to be honest, which is the lazy route i suppose for most people, and i always say use coinbase pro (gdax formerly) which is more like a real exchange and not so bad on fees.

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Harley said:

Nice to hear mention of chips and curry sauce at the end!  

Cracking recipes Harley that guy.He is from Sunderland.The burger one is dead easy and lovely.Iv actually been awol on the markets a bit as iv been busy stocking up on tools,things for the kitchen etc from Facebook marketplace.Everything will go up in price soon.I actually blew my Ferrari pizza oven up,i was gutted,but stripped it down and repaired and its working fine.It had melted the electrical connectors.

 

[Harley]

I've been waiting for a clawback to dump ITV and its new found wokedom.  Looks like this might be as good as it gets for now given the recent fuss and technicals?

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've been waiting for a clawback to dump ITV and its new found wokedom.  Looks like this might be as good as it gets for now given the recent fuss and technicals?

Go woke, go broke may well be applicable here, that and the fact youngsters watch internet videos and more pensioners are cancelling their TV licence.

[jamtomorrow]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've been waiting for a clawback to dump ITV and its new found wokedom.  Looks like this might be as good as it gets for now given the recent fuss and technicals?

Shame there's no way to get exposure to this new Gammon Bros TV. I think they'll do OK, especially if they can close on Piers after the extraordinary coincidence of his suddenly becoming a free agent.

[planit]

Quote

 extraordinary coincidence of his suddenly becoming a free agent

Hmmmm

 

 

[Hancock]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.I actually blew my Ferrari pizza oven up

We've had epic G3 Ferrari inflation, prices on ebay have gone through the roof, more or less doubling ... must be due to lack of stock coming from China or Brexit.

[moneyscam]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Following on from this post (thanks @Noallegiance) that's well worth a watch, I watched this one below that's well worth watching too...explains the mess that QE is, and how even with yield control the system wont be able to avoid rising inflation without a total reset/bust.

 

Great video. Supports my earlier thesis upthread of rapidly rising inflation expectations and then actual runaway inflation leading to a deflationary bust. The acceleration of inflation is amplified by the shutdown both temporary and permanent of many businesses. A massive increase in the supply of money chasing in this case fewer goods and services forces the Fed and US govt into the doom loop of raising rates then QE / fiscal spend to counter the crushing effect of raised rates on the real economy. This feeds more money supply and the process repeats till it reaches its breaking point.

This is why the WEF is signalling a Great Reset and this is how they will achieve this. You either believe these people are stupid, don't know what they are doing and a merely reacting to events. Or you believe that if people like George in the video and dosbodders can understand this then surely those at the levers of control understand this too and wouldn't be doing it unless they wanted it.

This is not just a local US problem it is a global one because of the inter dependence of global banks and the banking system, governments and the global use of T-bills and Treasuries as the de facto collateral of choice. Add in issues such as re-hypothecation and other markets that rely on US sovereign bonds as collateral (repo, derivatives) and we have a right fucking mess.

A useful tool for visualising the effects of various CB, govt, commercial banks and consumer actions can be found here if you didn't grasp fully what he was explaining : https://econviz.org/macroeconomic-balance-sheet-visualizer/

[Hancock]

FFS those wankers in London who fly around the world and have multiple houses hate the working class.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/13/ministers-considering-ban-north-sea-exploration-licences/

[AlfredTheLittle]

38 minutes ago, Hancock said:

FFS those wankers in London who fly around the world and have multiple houses hate the working class.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/13/ministers-considering-ban-north-sea-exploration-licences/

Less exploration, less oil, higher prices for BP and Shell 😁

[Mapper]

Good interview I thought (I like listening to these old hands), but I'm not suggesting anybody listen to it all, if they don't want to.

Timestamped to start at Felix Zulauf's final comments (2 minutes worth).

He says there will be a "nasty surprise on the downside" in the next year or so, and "If you get out, get out quickly, because you'll probably have to get back in quickly".

 

[AWW]

Another way to get a year's NI cheaply (well, free) is to pay yourself via a Ltd Co. Pay salary above the lower earnings limit but below the primary threshold. Neither the company nor the individual will pay any NI, but you will be credited with a year of contributions.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

FFS those wankers in London who fly around the world and have multiple houses hate the working class.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/13/ministers-considering-ban-north-sea-exploration-licences/

As Enoch Powell observed, those whom the God's wish to destroy they first make mad. 

[AWW]

Isn't this quite meaningless though? I thought there was nothing left in the north sea that made economic sense to extract?

[Option5]

10 minutes ago, AWW said:

Isn't this quite meaningless though? I thought there was nothing left in the north sea that made economic sense to extract?

There's plenty, just at today's prices it's not worth going after.

Maybe one day 

[Innkeeper]

6 minutes ago, AWW said:

Isn't this quite meaningless though? I thought there was nothing left in the north sea that made economic sense to extract?

That must depend on the price of oil...

The same mentality being shown as with the Cumbrian coal mine fiasco.  We want industry and the jobs that go with it but just not the uncomfortable dirty bits of the process.  We’ll let other countries do those bits and to hell with their populations health and climate change aspirations.  Oh yes and we’ll criticise them for their carbon outputs as well.....

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Nice to hear mention of chips and curry sauce at the end!  

Philistines! :-)

[planit]

The best incentive for the move to green energy will be a sky high price of fossil fuels. Suddenly makes loads of projects worthwhile.

 

On the downside a high oil price will trash the economy and therefore the ability to invest huge sums into green energy.

Looks like an oil price of $100-$130 would be a target for policy makers. Unfortunately I think they have baked in an oil price way above this level already.

In 3-4 years the lack of exploration supercharged by growth in the developing world, infrastructure spending to develop renewable energy and the public's refusal for anything fossil fuels related to survive, will cause a squeeze of biblical proportions.

 

[Noallegiance]

It's OK. MPs tell the government to do all kinds of shit they never do.

It just sells papers.

[planit]

Anyone think this might be worth tuning in to? :

FT Hydrogen Summit

26th April 2021

 

25+

Speakers

9

Hours of Content

12+

Sessions

 

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, Hancock said:

We've had epic G3 Ferrari inflation, prices on ebay have gone through the roof, more or less doubling ... must be due to lack of stock coming from China or Brexit.

It’s obviously because of all the lockdown Google searches linking to this thread, it’s a victim of its own success.

We’ll have more competition in everything as the avid watchers hang on our every word. Yellow stickers freebie farm and bin raiding will eventually trend on Twitter and you’ll have everyone at it.

I also blame it for being outbid on my below spot junk silver candle stick purchases. I wonder if I can create a GME trend in #GreatPanther

[Loki]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

iv been busy stocking up on tools

Same here, a useful thing I learned from this thread.  Only from eBay, nothing too clever.  I'm not VAT registered so I can't claim the VAT back, I'd never thought about the lack of VAT on 2nd hand stuff.