Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Barnsey]

Not a surprise to us, but confirmation that goal numero uno is to inflate the debt away, whatever it takes...

 

[geordie_lurch]

I've finally got confirmation of my 10 year 1.99% Barclays fixed mortgage today - they've taken the £999 product fee and I will gladly pay that to settle in my new place ASAP before the BK or just general shit storm we all know is coming

[DurhamBorn]

So on those US listed Brazilian stocks it looks like within a SIPP the divis will be tax free,if so,given its a country that should do well in a reflation its an interesting area.Telefonica is moving higher nicely now so il add the Brazilian arm first and ladder the rest of the plays.

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Not a surprise to us, but confirmation that goal numero uno is to inflate the debt away, whatever it takes...

 

From that, Bailey sees interest rates rising as a good thing.

[kibuc]

20 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I've finally got confirmation of my 10 year 1.99% Barclays fixed mortgage today - they've taken the £999 product fee and I will gladly pay that to settle in my new place ASAP before the BK or just general shit storm we all know is coming

Wow, that is one heck of a deal, nicely done.

[M S E Refugee]

Sweet Jesus! My Shaw Communications Stock just went up 43% today.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Sweet Jesus! My Shaw Communications Stock just went up 43% today.

Our SJR  as we thought the sector is in play,lots more deals to come i expect.Glad you got them,could be a counter bid yet.

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Our SJR  as we thought the sector is in play,lots more deals to come i expect.Glad you got them,could be a counter bid yet.

Thank you for your brilliant insight and everyone else who contributes, I haven't made a fortune off them but I am still chuffed.

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Thank you for your brilliant insight and everyone else who contributes, I haven't made a fortune off them but I am still chuffed.

Is there a secret list going around?

[janch]

5 hours ago, headrow said:

What is the reason for the 10% rise in Drax today?

Maybe this:

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/yorkshire/drax-groups-wood-pellet-supplier-acquisition-moves-forward

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Well done that man. I stayed out of it as I just didn't like the idea of burning beautiful Canadian trees on an industrial scale, go woke go broke 

Similar to Drax - Ormat and Fortum (mentioned on here before, Finish so may be difficult to buy depending on platform) are both on my watchlist. Internationals and big in hydro, plus own other renewable power plant including nuclear, geothermal. Also into CCS tech.

[DurhamBorn]

30 minutes ago, Harley said:

Is there a secret list going around?

I said on the thread Harley i thought Shaw was the best play on Canadian telcos.Myself i only have a small holding,actually my lowest sized telco holding.

[Hancock]

51 minutes ago, janch said:

Maybe this:

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/yorkshire/drax-groups-wood-pellet-supplier-acquisition-moves-forward

Ive about 4k in Drax now, but can someone explain to me how the company that produces pellets can continue to do so over the long term ... as aren't i correct in thinking they'll need to grow trees faster than what they burn the pellets.

[Bricormortis]

I think its 10 years to produce a burner so chop down ten percent of your forest and replant ?

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

There's plenty economic at todays prices. To an oil company, the UK tax regime is more unstable than many 3rd world tinpot dictatorships. My company has done long years of business in what would be considered very unstable parts of the world, with nothing like the fiscal instability of the UK. Even signalling this will cause dollars to be spent elsewhere, they are unbelievable idiots. 

What's attractive about the North Sea is what we call ILX, or infrastructure led exploration. When the kit is already there, you can tie small discoveries into it and make a lot of money. Example: a clever geo in BP spotted a bit of oil in some old well logs and made the case it was connected to a bigger volume, around 20m barrels. He was right, it turned out to be the Vorlich discovery, and because it is close to existing platforms, is worth about $200m to BP. Not bad for a day's work. $200m of value on a risked on a risked basis (the north sea is lower risk geologically than many other places) is pretty hard to secure in frontier basins. Apache has made hundreds of millions drilling small ~10mbbl discoveries in and around its Forties and Beryl hubs. They bought the hubs to do this, as the previous owners didn't bother. Shell is currently pursing these sized opportunities in the southern north sea in particular, and has picked up blocks in recent licence rounds. At what point will they say "ah why bother, we can do ILX in Brazil too".

What may be underneath this govt policy is preparing the ground for the decommisioning tax breaks. There will be people screaming that these are a subsidy for the oil industry, but removing the crap from the seabed (and believe me, it is done very thoroughly) is a business expense like any other. So it could be the worst kind of virtue signalling. Idiots.

CP, do you have any thoughts about the recent merger between the Canadian co's Tork oil and gas / Whitecap resources? I say merger but looks like Tork has now got subsidiary status post deal, and as I own some Tork I am wondering if it will just be asset stripped by its big brother? ...I know you don't of course possess crystal balls(!?) but I have been remiss (stupid) and didn't record why I bought Tork (I usually do this so I can keep track of my sector allocations over time). Anyway (here's hoping) maybe the new corporate setup represents a brilliant symbiotic merger of different assets/markets/skills, and both companies will now epically prosper?!? Sorry for detailed question, but I do hate it when stocks I own get bought out, blowing original long term hold thesis out of the water (that is of course if I could remember what my 'damn thesis for buying' was in first place!).                                                                                                      I'm also posting this question here because I'm pretty sure Tork oil and gas came onto my radar via this thread, so others might also have a view.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Ive about 4k in Drax now, but can someone explain to me how the company that produces pellets can continue to do so over the long term ... as aren't i correct in thinking they'll need to grow trees faster than what they burn the pellets.

Most of the pellets come from sawmill waste,and you get huge amounts,the bark etc.They are also looking at all the waste that comes from corn/maize etc.Its ludicrous really,but the more you move to windmills the more you need Drax because they have pumped storage,so they pump water up hill when electric is minus prices,others have to pay them to use it,and then they release it when the wind stops and prices shoot up.They also get paid to use electric from the grid and run their turbines at DRAX to help balance the grid.Power stations paid to use others power.

Iv sold around half of mine now and will likely sell a few more then keep the rest.Been a great profit mainly as they got whacked to crazy prices in the sell off last year.

[AWW]

Good entry point into Petrofac today for anyone who's been looking to open a position.

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

Good entry point into Petrofac today for anyone who's been looking to open a position.

looks like shit from the long term graph.

reminiscent of the <not to be named> share chart.

[AWW]

7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

looks like shit from the long term graph.

reminiscent of the <not to be named> share chart.

Show me an oil stock that doesn't!

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Most of the pellets come from sawmill waste,and you get huge amounts,the bark etc.They are also looking at all the waste that comes from corn/maize etc.Its ludicrous really,but the more you move to windmills the more you need Drax because they have pumped storage,so they pump water up hill when electric is minus prices,others have to pay them to use it,and then they release it when the wind stops and prices shoot up.They also get paid to use electric from the grid and run their turbines at DRAX to help balance the grid.Power stations paid to use others power.

Iv sold around half of mine now and will likely sell a few more then keep the rest.Been a great profit mainly as they got whacked to crazy prices in the sell off last year.

Yes was tempted to sell as im up almost 100%, same with RMG ... question is what to buy instead or do i sit and wait it out.

[leonardratso]

14 minutes ago, AWW said:

Show me an oil stock that doesn't!

what happened to it today to go down 18%, i havent dug into it much.

ah, some bribery case and suspended contracts.

 

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

what happened to it today to go down 18%, i havent dug into it much.

Looked at mine the other day and were just back to the price i bought them for, somes you win somes you lose!
https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/petrofac-suspended-from-competing-for-new-abu-dhabi-awards-shares-tank--7841925.html

I worked on a job in Tanzania for them and i asked if they could pay people to allow me to bring equipment. Was explained to me about the US laws that apply everywhere in the world against corruption ... maybe the directors will be liable if something big has gone down.

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Looked at mine the other day and were just back to the price i bought them for, somes you win somes you lose!
https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/petrofac-suspended-from-competing-for-new-abu-dhabi-awards-shares-tank--7841925.html

yes, saw it.

Got too many oilers spread a bit thin anyways, cant be arsed with any more, works starting to notice that im doing fack all and still being paid so i reckon ill have to rush some old projects in and say i finished them but forgot to log it, i think i can just half arse them and maybe get away with it. They getting a bit tetchy now theyve been vulture capitaled / PE'd by the yanks, so its cuts and preferred outsource partners galore. Soon be over. 

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yes, saw it.

Got too many oilers spread a bit thin anyways, cant be arsed with any more, works starting to notice that im doing fack all and still being paid so i reckon ill have to rush some old projects in and say i finished them but forgot to log it, i think i can just half arse them and maybe get away with it. They getting a bit tetchy now theyve been vulture capitaled / PE'd by the yanks, so its cuts and preferred outsource partners galore. Soon be over. 

You sounds like a lazy cunt, which means you work as hard as everyone else in the country!

[AWW]

26 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

works starting to notice that im doing fack all and still being paid 

It was impossible to get anything done at my last shop, so I stopped bothering to try. Took them six months to notice, and even then they didn't end my contract, just waited for it to expire.

They had permies who'd done fuck all for 20 years.