Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB if you have time could you elaborate on that point about western currencies might flip flop with the next tier. What does that mean. 

Western currencies weaken across the board,2nd tier currencies gain in strength over the cycle,with of course some outliers.

[Talking Monkey]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Western currencies weaken across the board,2nd tier currencies gain in strength over the cycle,with of course some outliers.

Cheers DB

[Loki]

I've ended up top slicing and selling some of my stocks.  Not faffing about with them - just ordered my 'new' 4.0 V6 Hilux. That will cover the import fees and VAT.

Cheers all. 

[DoINeedOne]

26 minutes ago, Loki said:

I've ended up top slicing and selling some of my stocks.  Not faffing about with them - just ordered my 'new' 4.0 V6 Hilux. That will cover the import fees and VAT.

Cheers all. 

[Loki]

@DoINeedOne It's a 'forever' car, I hate buying vehicles, so much stress and aggro, so I thought I'd get one I wanted without all the modern diesel tech and by the time it needs replacing there won't be any petrol left anyway. We all know it's kinder to the environment to run an older vehicle, but not kind for the Potemkin economies 

[DoINeedOne]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

@DoINeedOne It's a 'forever' car, I hate buying vehicles, so much stress and aggro, so I thought I'd get one I wanted without all the modern diesel tech and by the time it needs replacing there won't be any petrol left anyway. We all know it's kinder to the environment to run an older vehicle, but not kind for the Potemkin economies 

Ha, I love my pickup truck probably the best vehicle i have ever owned needs replacing soon but now have a dog and want something with a boot area for the dog 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Ha, I love my pickup truck probably the best vehicle i have ever owned needs replacing soon but now have a dog and want something with a boot area for the dog 

Yeah, I will be using it for tools/as a van so it's not just a posing thing.  The only thing with having an actual van though, is you have to drive everywhere...in a van. 

 

[nirvana]

SHORT Nasdaq!!...it's put on 500 points since yesterday and you know who has given it the kiss o death! 

 

[nirvana]

42 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Meltup inbound...

there was a meltup in GOld and the cunts whacked it down again!

AND SILVER TRIPLE TOP! 

fecking hate Silver now but it appears to be a daytraders dream, if only I could bin that ETF 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

4.0 V6

kinnel that's a big one sir!! where did you get that beast from?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

I've ended up top slicing and selling some of my stocks.  Not faffing about with them - just ordered my 'new' 4.0 V6 Hilux. That will cover the import fees and VAT.

Cheers all. 

GR Sport I hope!  After all, had a good year?

PS:  Don't forget to tune that v6!

[BearingUp]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Really pleased ,you never moaned on about a few drawdowns as we were positioning  and a prime example to people to let the markets go to where they are going in their own time.As always though we always have to look ahead and try to see through the macro fog.The markets are getting far too excited and im starting to slice off some profits and set ladders over in Brazil  .Thats why i always appreciate Kaplans work because iv been seeing a chance on my currency roadmap that western currencies might flip flop with the next tier and try to think how to position some for that.He put us on to a chance opening up in Brazil.

However the research has to wait as im de-frosting my freezer,i had to leave some 5% steak mince for £1 each,5 of them in Iceland as no room,the ice was taking up 15% of the space and i couldnt sleep thinking about the mince pies i could of made.

I remember you nearly quitting DB as I expect you were getting really fed up with some of the moaning going on this time last year.  I'm still down on a few which I bought too early, but I've more than made up for them with big gains in many of the board favorites. 

Really love lurking on this thread.  My biggest gain?  My Ferrari pizza oven, without a shadow.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

kinnel that's a big one sir!! where did you get that beast from?

Coming in from Japan.  Not even 60k miles on it!  Good for an 8 second 0 - 60 dash.

1 hour ago, Harley said:

GR Sport I hope!  After all, had a good year?

PS:  Don't forget to tune that v6!

It's an SSR-G Hilux Surf, the 'proper' Hilux's with a decent size petrol lump are all 2WD only as far as I found...no point going to the effort of an import and having only half the wheels driven 

Also after ripping on autos for years I wanted one, and a petrol auto full size truck is as rare as an honest politician in this country.  My (Contrarian???) plan is that what I lose in MPG I make up for in no more costs other than basic maintenance.  No turbo, common rail etc to go wrong.  They're good for 300k.  All I plan to do is get it undersealed, change the oil every 5k and the ATF every 30,000.  Timing chain so no rubber band to worry about.

 

 

Any way, we were discussing ag a couple of pages back.  Worth a read, you won't find any financialese in it though

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/nasa-vegetation-index-globe-continues-rapid-greening-trend-sahara-alone-shrinks-700000-sq-km/ 

[Barnsey]

And people think I'm mad for fixing at 2.59% for 15 years  (to be fair I haven't bought a house in the U.S. but still...)

[Bricormortis]

Febuary US retail sales down 3%,.... 0.5 was expected. Weather a factor ?

https://www.ibtimes.com/us-retail-sales-plunge-3-february-govt-3163204

Gasoline up 3.6%

[Castlevania]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Western currencies weaken across the board,2nd tier currencies gain in strength over the cycle,with of course some outliers.

Isn’t that just a repeat of what we saw post GFC up until about 2013? Chimes with that Jules fellow from Fundsmith was waxing on about when talking about Phillip Morris International.

[Bricormortis]

I have been thinking about going large into something like jp morgan emerging markets after the crash. A bumpy ride but gets you out of sterling,   and some decent value allegedly.

What I find hard about holding a lot of cash back now waiting on a crash, is im not so sure there is going to be one, maybe a slow bumpy grind down with no clarity on where or when the bottom is.  Its started in the Nasdaq, but I dont see it ending there. Personally I will be chuffed if its a sudden and strong event.

 

 

Seperately.....Red wall by- election on the horizon. Should be interesting.

[dnb24]

New video with Gregory Copley

Sees the UK playing a big role in the future. USA losing significance, China probably losing influence and EU going to the dogs. Some interesting thoughts about Central Asia- and I really like the objective view of Trump from Copley. Interesting view on military growth and societal changes with links into the thread.

A quote from it- “democracy doesn’t create wealth, wealth creates democracy”.

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

A quote from it- “Kleptocracy doesn’t create wealth, wealth creates Kleptocracy”.

Fixed, as what he said was a load of bollocks.

[wherebee]

All my green runners down in the red overnight on daily moves.  What the hell were you lot doing whilst us Australians were asleep?!

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, wherebee said:

All my green runners down in the red overnight on daily moves.  What the hell were you lot doing whilst us Australians were asleep?!

was a selloff, the opiates have increased in price due to inflation.

[Loki]

Worth a watch, they cover macro and their view on the coming events

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Isn’t that just a repeat of what we saw post GFC up until about 2013? Chimes with that Jules fellow from Fundsmith was waxing on about when talking about Phillip Morris International.

Its really foggy because if the Fed tightens there will be a dollar shortage so EMs etc could get whacked hard.However im seeing structural deficits in the west and that should mean cycle printing is higher than GDP growth in the west,so currencies should weaken.I need to do more work on it.However im setting ladders in Brazil and also investment trusts in Asia.Im also thinking of upping some stake in companies listed in the UK/US and odd ones in Europe who would gain from the above.BAT and Telefonica two prime examples,though on TEF i decided to purchase the Brazil ADR rather than up TEF.

[Barnsey]

Rise of the unions...

Prepare for takeoff...

Rising rents equals rising...

With inflation, comes conflict?

 

[feed]

Telecoms

Alliance News) - The UK telecommunications regulator on Wednesday announced BT Group PLC's mobile business EE Ltd has won 80 megahertz of 5G spectrum in an auction.

The FTSE 100-listed telecommunications firm said EE has secured new 700 megahertz and 3.6 to 3.8 gigahertz bands spectrum for GBP452 million.

Ofcom said in December that EE, CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd's Hutchison 3G UK Ltd, Telefonica UK Ltd, part of Telefonica SA, and Vodafone Ltd, part of Vodafone Group PLC, had qualified to take part in the spectrum auction and that they were established bidders as of January.

"EE has secured vital new spectrum in this auction which, when rolled out into the network, will allow us to grow our position as the UK's number one 5G network. EE was first to launch 4G and 5G, and this auction outcome is great news for our network, our customers and BT," said Marc Allera, chief executive of BT's Consumer brands, which includes EE.

Ofcom said on Wednesday that Vodafone won 40 megahertz in the 3.6 to 3.8 gigahertz band at a cost of GBP176.4 million. Hutchison 3G UK and Telefonica UK both won two lots of 10 megahertz of paired frequency spectrum in the 700 megahertz band at a cost of GBP280 million, while Telefonica also won 40 megahertz in the 3.6-3.8 gigahertz band for GBP168 million.

"With bidding in the principal stage concluded, we now move to the next stage of the auction where the operators will have an opportunity to negotiate the position of their spectrum holdings in the wider band. This is an important step forward in bringing better mobile services to people - wherever they live, work and travel. These airwaves will help improve coverage for the mobile services people use today, as well as supporting the UK's position as a world leader in 5G," said Philip Marnick, Ofcom group director of spectrum.

Shares in BT were up 4.2% at 149.15 pence and Vodafone up 1.4% at 136.36p in London on Wednesday. Shares in Telefonica were down 0.2% at EUR4.09 in Madrid. CK Hutchison closed down 1.0% at HKD62.05 in Hong Kong on Wednesday.